RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On May 19, 2024

Complex League Hitters (min 15 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Felnin Celesten	SEA	86	100
2	Edgleen Perez	NYY	84	100
3	Jeremy Rodriguez	NYM	100	98
4	Dameury Pena	MIN	79	93
5	Robert Calaz	COL	79	92
6	Starlyn Caba	PHI	80	91
7	Yeiker Reyes	COL	83	90
8	Filippo Di Turi	MIL	80	89
9	Adrian Gil	CHW	76	88
10	Bryan Acuna	MIN	73	88
11	Brailer Guerrero	TBR	75	87
12	Yassel Soler	ARI	71	85
13	Andruw Musett	BOS	69	83
14	Eduardo Quintero	LAD	76	82
15	Mario Baez	ATL	75	82
16	Larry Martinez	TBR	69	82
17	Eric Bitonti	MIL	83	81
18	Leandro Arias	BAL	67	81
19	Yeremi Cabrera	TEX	82	81
20	Luiyin Alastre	MIL	70	80
21	Richard Ramirez	PIT	67	80
22	Enrique Jimenez	DET	68	79
23	Angel Arredondo	TEX	71	79
24	Pablo Guerrero	TEX	75	77
25	Esteban Mejia	TEX	70	77

Keen-eyed observers may have noticed that the minimum threshold in the list above was set at a silly 15 plate appearances, meaning that this is still extremely early. Still, some shape is beginning to form as many of the names are recognizable, either from these pages in previous weeks, or in complex league preview articles.

Felnin Celesten (Mariners No. 8 prospect) and Edgleen Perez (Yankees) find themselves at the top of the Complex League rankings. We talked last week about Perez and how he is an intriguing catching prospect. It is encouraging that he has sustained his top performance for another week.

Meanwhile, Celesten was one of the most coveted international signees and subsequent top FYPD name in 2023 after the Mariners signed him for $4.7 million. Having never played a game in the DSL and being immediately drop-shipped into the ACL, “The Prophecy” knocked two home runs and stole two bags, heralding his stateside arrival in a big way. Despite an extreme groundball rate, still a top 100 Fantasy Prospect for me

Another interesting name making some waves in the early going is Dameury Pena (Twins No. 28 prospect) who Josh Norris had as one to watch in the FCL this year  with a potential ceiling as a plus hitter. After raking in the DSL in 2023, Pena has maintained his sub-10% in zone miss percentage and sub-15% whiff% while stateside. His power may never reach an average grade, but so far as an 18-year old, he has a 90^th percentile exit velocity of around 100 mph – slightly better than average for the complex league right now.

Eric Bitonti (Brewers No. 16 prospect) hit three home runs last week and is showing the plus power that we graded him with. The pre-season concern was with the hit tool, and with a strikeout rate of 30%, and a contact rate below 60%, it is indeed the area where the 18-year old third baseman should focus.

Before the season, we identified Yassel Soler (Diamondbacks No. 21 prospect) as having a plus hit tool with a quick, short swing (and above average to plus defense) with a desire to see him add damage to the bat. In 2024, he’s already exceeded last year’s maximum exit velocity of 104 mph (achieved in 146 plate appearances) with a 111 mph and a 108 mph on just over 20 balls in play. He still puts the ball on the ground a bit too much but if he’s truly taken a step forward with the power, he has the potential to be a breakout prospect.

It’s too early to make a definitive “ThrowboScout” list for the Complex League pitchers as most of the arms haven’t thrown more than two starts but a few names have done some interesting things in the early going. Dylan Questad (Twins) struck out 10 batters in just under six innings and has been compiling  high whiff rate and chase rate on his 93 to 95 mph four seamer and 87 mph slider. The 5^th round draft pick in 2023 has had double digit walks but trails only Jefferson Jean (Athletics) for highest swinging strike rate of any teenage pitcher at the Complex who has averaged over three innings per appearance. Speaking of Jean, the right hander throws 95 mph with big extension, a low 80s slider, and a developmental change-up and went five innings in his only start of the year before being promoted to Low-A where he’s been less inspiring.

Another interesting pitcher is Luichi Casilla (Rockies No. 18 prospect) who reportedly touched 100 mph in his last start. So far, his walk rate is double digits, but armed with an electrifying fastball and slider from the left side, he is ascending.Mariners right hander Jeter Martinez has been electric too with his four seamer sitting 94 mph and his low 80s breaking stuff having over a foot of horizontal break. One thing to note is that his vertical release point did show a distinction in his first start between his fastball and his secondaries – perhaps something to keep an eye on. With a strikeout rate of 32% and a ground ball rate of 68% in his age 18 season, the popular pre-season sleeper would be in the Top 5 if RoboScout had Complex League rankings for pitchers this early in the season.

Low-A Hitters (min 45 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Lazaro Montes	SEA	100	100
2	Jeral Perez	LAD	97	100
3	Colt Emerson	SEA	99	99
4	Jaison Chourio	CLE	85	89
5	Alfredo Duno	CIN	91	87
6	Jonny Farmelo	SEA	82	86
7	Kevin McGonigle	DET	77	83
8	Cristofer Torin	ARI	78	83
9	Jesus Baez	NYM	77	81
10	Zyhir Hope	LAD	74	80
11	Josue Briceno	DET	74	80
12	Ralphy Velazquez	CLE	77	79
13	Aidan Smith	SEA	76	78
14	Josue De Paula	LAD	71	77
15	Marco Vargas	NYM	69	76
16	Aidan Miller	PHI	71	75
17	Yophery Rodriguez	MIL	74	74
18	Leodalis De Vries	SDP	82	74
19	Blake Mitchell	KCR	73	74
20	Tai Peete	SEA	72	73
21	Ariel Almonte	CIN	70	73
22	Angel Genao	CLE	65	72
23	Bryce Eldridge	SFG	70	72
24	Rosman Verdugo	SDP	78	71
25	Johanfran Garcia	BOS	77	71

The big movers this week were Josue De Paula (Dodgers No. 1 prospect) who had zero home runs and a below average OPS. Well, after a four home run (and one stolen base) explosion over the past week, the teenage Dominican outfielder finds himself firmly in the Top 15. The concern has never been the power and it’s nice to see him start to actualize it in games in 2024.

A new entrant into the Top 10 is Kevin McGonigle (Tigers No. 7 prospect) who is showing some of the best swing decisions in Low-A with a minuscule 11% chase rate and minuscule whiff rate. Although it’s only around 50 balls in play, the Tigers 37^th overall pick from the supplemental first round has added 2 mph to his 90^th percentile exit velocity and has already reached his max EV from 2023. If he can get to average power to complement his plus or better hit tool, he will be a top 100 Fantasy Prospect for me by next month.

Creeping a few more spots in the Low-A rankings is Aidan Miller (Phillies No. 4 prospect) who has the highest weighted runs created plus amongst any hitters in their age 20 season. With four home runs and nine stolen bases, the former first round pick has already had at least six balls come off his bat in 2024 faster than the 105 mph max exit velocity that he managed in 2023.With four home runs, I would be remiss to not mention 2023 helium name Austin Charles (Royals No. 14 prospect) who is now up to six home runs and 13 stolen bases in 133 plate appearances. Although the toolsy infielder does look like a 20 home run, 20 stolen base threat at peak, he is still showing some significant hit tool risk, with a 30% strikeout rate and a high chase rate. Although, his week has been torrid, RoboScout is still a bit leery.

Low-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Matt Wilkinson	CLE	100	100
2	Jonah Tong	NYM	92	98
3	Quinn Mathews	STL	85	96
4	George Klassen	PHI	80	92
5	Santiago Suarez	TBR	78	89
6	Yujanyer Herrera	MIL	84	86
7	Bishop Letson	MIL	73	85
8	Manuel Rodriguez	MIL	77	82
9	Franklin Gomez	NYM	75	80
10	Gary Gill Hill	TBR	76	80
11	Jedixson Paez	BOS	79	79
12	Michael Forret	BAL	71	79
13	Thomas White	MIA	68	79
14	Welinton Herrera	COL	66	79
15	Luis Serna	NYY	72	78
16	Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz	BOS	76	78
17	Luis De Leon	BAL	74	78
18	Jarlin Susana	WSN	62	77
19	Alejandro Rosario	TEX	63	77
20	Daniel Corniel	MIL	67	77
21	Jace Kaminska	COL	66	76
22	Josh Grosz	NYY	66	76
23	Didier Fuentes	ATL	63	76
24	Michael Kennedy	PIT	82	76
25	Kohl Drake	TEX	72	76

The biggest riser since last week was Gary Gill Hill (Rays) who struck out eight batters with zero walks over six innings of work. For more details on this performance – and his arsenal, including a 94 mph four-seamer – Josh Norris wrote up his live look. Also rising is 18-year old right hander Manuel Rodriguez (Brewers) who has yielded a 1.7% walk rate over 30 innings in the Carolina League. Only sitting 88 to 89 mph on his four seam fastball, with a tight slider with 12 inches of horizontal break but that only occasionally flashes 80 mph, the command is truly the calling card so far, with a chance for a back of the rotation starter.

High-A Hitters (min 45 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Luke Keaschall	MIN	100	100
2	Carter Jensen	KCR	100	99
3	Cam Collier	CIN	95	91
4	Jay Allen II	CIN	92	90
5	Xavier Isaac	TBR	89	90
6	Alex Freeland	LAD	87	89
7	Sal Stewart	CIN	89	88
8	Yohendrick Pinango	CHC	84	86
9	Luke Adams	MIL	83	82
10	Mike Boeve	MIL	78	82
11	Jefferson Rojas	CHC	81	81
12	Hector Rodriguez	CIN	77	79
13	Sebastian Walcott	TEX	83	77
14	Ricardo Olivar	MIN	74	77
15	Creed Willems	BAL	80	76
16	Henry Bolte	OAK	83	76
17	Joe Mack	MIA	78	76
18	Samuel Zavala	CHW	72	75
19	C.J. Kayfus	CLE	74	75
20	Ethan Salas	SDP	86	74
21	Rubel Cespedes	MIN	68	71
22	Pedro Ramirez	CHC	71	71
23	Dylan O’Rae	MIL	72	70
24	Noah Miller	LAD	72	70
25	Gabriel Gonzalez	MIN	69	70

Luke Keaschall (Twins No. 9 prospect) has taken over top spot in the High-A rankings after knocking two home runs and stealing two bags en route to a  .417/.464/.708 triple slash last week. The second round pick has improved his contact, chase, and barrel rate from his brief 2023 professional debut and RoboScout now sees him as a power/speed threat with solid batting average. Knocking right on the door of a Top 100 fantasy prospect for me.

Henry Bolte (Athletics No. 13 prospect) had solid underlying data as a 20 year old in Low-A Stockton last year with a maximum exit velocity of 111 mph and a 90^th percentile reading of 104 mph to complement his plus speed and above-average defense. In other words, tools for days. The biggest concern was the significant swing and miss, as the outfielder had a 33% strikeout rate and a 62% contact rate. To put it into context, the lowest contact rate in the majors in the last two years amongst qualified hitters is the 62% rate that Nolan Gorman (Cardinals) has so far this year. In the last week, no hitter in High-A has been hotter, as Bolte has hit three home runs while stealing five bases. The issue is that for the year, his strikeout rate is still 34% – though with a palatable 20% mark this past week – and his contact and in-zone contact rates are essentially no different from last year’s numbers. Still a huge ceiling, but RoboScout is not quite calling breakout yet, but he does find himself at #16 in the High-A rankings.RoboScout is extremely impressed though by Xavier Isaac (Rays No. 4 prospect) who jumped not only into the Top 5, after a two home run and three stolen base performance this past week. With athleticism that belies his slugger’s frame, the first baseman has surprisingly stolen eight bases on the year and has yet to be caught. The calling card is of course the huge all-fields power, but if he can sprinkle in a handful of stolen bases – similar to how Josh Naylor (Guardians) has contributed the past two years – the extra fantasy value makes him an easy Top 50 fantasy prospect for me (and RoboScout).

High-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Noah Schultz	CHW	99	100
2	Owen Murphy	ATL	100	97
3	Chase Dollander	COL	91	91
4	Jaden Hamm	DET	100	91
5	Luis Perales	BOS	89	90
6	Zebby Matthews	MIN	90	90
7	Winston Santos	TEX	90	89
8	Brett Wichrowski	MIL	86	84
9	Moises Chace	BAL	83	83
10	Alessandro Ercolani	PIT	78	80
11	Nolan McLean	NYM	76	78
12	Sean Sullivan	COL	93	77
13	Cam Schlittler	NYY	78	77
14	Edgar Portes	BAL	75	76
15	Juan Daniel Encarnacion	BOS	77	75
16	Andry Lara	WSN	87	74
17	Jake Bloss	HOU	74	74
18	Aidan Curry	TEX	76	74
19	Peter Heubeck	LAD	77	74
20	Andrew Morris	MIN	84	73
21	Rhett Lowder	CIN	80	73
22	Juan Nunez	BAL	74	72
23	Trevor Martin	TBR	78	71
24	Tanner McDougal	CHW	77	71
25	Mitch Bratt	TEX	83	71

Juan Daniel Encarnacion (Red Sox) jumps into the Top 15, despite not being on the list last week, after hurling ten solid innings with twelve strikeouts and only one walk and winnings South Atlantic League pitcher of the week. With a flat 92 mph four seamer paired with a 87 mph cutter, the righthander also throws a solid sweeper and a change-up.

Named a pre-season prospect to know Andrew Morris (Twins) entered at #20 this week after throwing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. With a five-pitch mix, with each pitch garnering more than a 30% chase rate this season, the 2022 fifth round draft pick has a chance to be a high-floor starting pitcher with his deceptive over-the-top delivery.

On the Fantasy Podcast on May 7^th , I mentioned 20-year old Alessandro Ercolani (Pirates) as a data standout with his a low release point and the furthest extension – at over seven feet – amongst pitchers with an IVB greater than 17 inches. Although the fastball only nominally averages 92 mph, despite those unique traits, after adding another four innings with no walks and six strikeouts to his season total, the San Marino-born right hander moves into the Top 10.

Double-A Hitters (min 45 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Agustin Ramirez	NYY	100	100
2	Carson Williams	TBR	99	96
3	Alex Freeland	LAD	88	90
4	Moises Ballesteros	CHC	84	86
5	Emmanuel Rodriguez	MIN	85	85
6	Matthew Lugo	BOS	81	79
7	Deyvison De Los Santos	ARI	83	76
8	Jett Williams	NYM	72	75
9	Roman Anthony	BOS	71	75
10	Harry Ford	SEA	77	74
11	Cole Young	SEA	71	73
12	Brady House	WSN	77	73
13	Zac Veen	COL	78	73
14	Jacob Wilson	OAK	69	71
15	James Triantos	CHC	66	70
16	Mike Boeve	MIL	64	70
17	Samuel Basallo	BAL	69	69
18	Tyler Locklear	SEA	68	68
19	Marcelo Mayer	BOS	65	67
20	Nacho Alvarez Jr.	ATL	62	65
21	Dylan Beavers	BAL	68	64
22	Edgar Quero	CHW	61	64
23	Colby Thomas	OAK	61	63
24	Hao-Yu Lee	DET	65	61
25	Brooks Baldwin	CHW	65	63

Top 5 Double-A hitters Agustin Ramirez (Yankees No. 10 prospect and Moises Ballesteros (Cubs No. 7 prospect) all hit two home runs last week to entrench their positions at the top of the table.

The biggest performance though belonged to Carson Williams (Rays No. 2 prospect) who knocked three home runs, stole two bags, and catapulted to second spot in the rankings.

Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks No. 4 prospect) continues his torrid vengeance tour with another three home runs this week.Alex Freeland (Dodgers No. 27 prospect), now with 42 plate appearances in Double-A Tulsa, qualifies for the list and debuts at No. 3 after aggregating his 110 plate appearance performance from High-A. The big story out of Tulsa for the week though, was Diego Cartaya (Dodgers No. 9 prospect) quadrupling his home run output for the season with three blasts last week. Despite the power explosion, in total, the 22-year old backstop still has a weighted runs created plus below league average, a strikeout rate of 29%, and continues to show difficulty in making in-zone contact. The once lauded prospect is no longer a Top 15 catcher for fantasy according to RoboScout.

Double-A Pitchers (min 11 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Zebby Matthews	MIN	94	100
2	Chandler Champlain	KCR	100	99
3	Yilber Diaz	ARI	97	98
4	Blade Tidwell	NYM	88	96
5	Justin Wrobleski	LAD	91	96
6	Miguel Ullola	HOU	88	95
7	Ben Casparius	LAD	87	95
8	Doug Nikhazy	CLE	94	95
9	Carson Palmquist	COL	91	94
10	Zach Penrod	BOS	94	90
11	Mason Barnett	KCR	91	90
12	Jackson Jobe	DET	80	89
13	Ian Seymour	TBR	96	89
14	Mason Adams	CHW	94	88
15	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	80	88
16	Ian Mejia	ATL	91	87
17	Ty Madden	DET	90	87
18	Tink Hence	STL	91	86
19	Brandon Young	BAL	91	86
20	Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	83	85
21	Tyler Woessner	MIL	97	84
22	Troy Melton	DET	80	84
23	Valente Bellozo	MIA	90	83
24	Chase Petty	CIN	82	82
25	Jake Bloss	HOU	76	82

What more can be said about the incredible campaign that Zebby Matthews (Twins No. 17 prospect) has had in 2024. After not walking a batter in 22 innings in High-A Cedar Rapids, the 24-year old right hander has hurled another 11.1 innings in Wichita without yielding a free pass.The big jump of the week belonged to Chandler Champlain (Royals No. 8 prospect) who struck out ten batters in just over six innings, while walking only one. On the season, the 24-year old has a strikeout rate of 34.5% and a walk rate of only 5% while showing an ability to throw, on average, over 5 innings per appearance. With a solid four-pitch mix from an over-the-top delivery, headed by a 94 mph four seamer with good extension, RoboScout sees Champlain as having a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.

Triple-A Hitters (min 45 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	James Wood	WSN	100	100
2	Jackson Holliday	BAL	96	98
3	Jose Fermin	STL	92	95
4	Coby Mayo	BAL	91	94
5	Kyle Manzardo	CLE	82	87
6	Junior Caminero	TBR	86	87
7	Heston Kjerstad	BAL	83	86
8	Miguel Vargas	LAD	79	83
9	Jonah Bride	MIA	77	80
10	Joey Loperfido	HOU	80	79
11	Andy Pages	LAD	75	79
12	Niko Kavadas	BOS	76	78
13	Tyler Black	MIL	74	77
14	Ji Hwan Bae	PIT	71	76
15	Addison Barger	TOR	67	73
16	Daniel Schneemann	CLE	70	71
17	Jonatan Clase	SEA	69	71
18	Orelvis Martinez	TOR	70	70
19	Leo Jimenez	TOR	63	70
20	Owen Caissie	CHC	68	69
21	Lenyn Sosa	CHW	61	69
22	Chase Meidroth	BOS	62	69
23	Javier Sanoja	MIA	61	68
24	Heliot Ramos	SFG	61	68
25	Enmanuel Valdez	BOS	58	67

After mentioning him last week, Miguel Vargas (Dodgers) was called up the majors at the expense of 2023 fantasy breakout James Outman. A definite add in redraft leagues, look for potential 20 home run/20 stolen base (on a per 600 plate appearance basis) production from the now-left fielder.

Also, after MomoScout identified him as an unheralded name, Daniel Scheenman (Guardians) added another home run and maintained his wRC+ above 170. He is now in the Top 20.

The big story of Triple-A has been Brennen Davis (Cubs) who has slugged seven home runs in his last eight games. Despite the huge recent output, the former top prospect is still below average when it comes to contact rate but has cut his strike out rate to a much more acceptable 23%. The most dramatic improvement has been with his swing decisions, cutting his chase rate from 31% last year – much worse than the league average of 27% rate – to an excellent 16% in 2024, while swinging at a league average rate. RoboScout is nearly ready to call a post-hype breakout – The Cubs outfielder is at #26 – and is encouraged to see the improvement in approach at a still young 24-years old.On the bad news side of the ledger, Coby Mayo (Orioles No. 3 prospect) fractured a rib and will not play for several weeks.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 11 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Paul Skenes	PIT	100	100
2	Christian Scott	NYM	92	92
3	Jack Leiter	TEX	90	89
4	Bryan Woo	SEA	84	86
5	Cade Povich	BAL	91	81
6	Louie Varland	MIN	83	80
7	Taj Bradley	TBR	84	79
8	Matt Manning	DET	76	78
9	Mason Black	SFG	72	74
10	Will Warren	NYY	70	74
11	Tobias Myers	MIL	69	73
12	Bryce Elder	ATL	74	73
13	David Festa	MIN	77	73
14	Brant Hurter	DET	74	72
15	Elieser Hernandez	LAD	70	72
16	Carson Spiers	CIN	69	71
17	Robert Gasser	MIL	67	71
18	Spencer Howard	SFG	76	70
19	Alek Manoah	TOR	74	70
20	Chayce McDermott	BAL	69	70
21	Jonathan Bowlan	KCR	73	69
22	Gerson Garabito	TEX	71	69
23	Osvaldo Bido	OAK	70	68
24	Sem Robberse	STL	81	68
25	Albert Suarez	BAL	73	68

Judging from the fact that only five of the top 20 pitchers on the Triple-A list have never pitched in the major leagues, it is reasonable to assume that it is only a matter of time for them. Regardless of whether this is a testament to RoboScout’s in-season track record or the scourge of pitching injuries and attrition afflicting the sport, don’t be surprised if Cade Povich (Orioles No. 8 prospect), David Festa (Twins No. 5 prospect), Will Warren (Yankees No. 8 prospect), Brant Hurter (Tigers No. 14 prospect), and Chayce McDermott (Orioles No. 7 prospect) all make their major league debuts before the All-Star Break.

Happy bidding!