Kyle Glaser MLB Prospects Chat (8/07/19)
Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody, hope you all are having a great week. It's certainly a busy time of year, but it's an exciting one. Let's get chatting
Rick M (Walnut Creek):
- Should I be getting excited about Alexander Canario future?
Kyle Glaser: Canario is certainly promising. Generally, I advise not getting overly excited until a guy gets to High-A, the first level the baseball is good enough to actually mean something.
- Between Luis Robert and Gavin Lux, who’s getting called sooner? Thank you!
Kyle Glaser: I would think Luis Robert, but a lot of that is going to be circumstantial based on injuries, what happens ahead of them, etc. Both are going to get to the big leagues soon and both have a chance to be special players that make an impact. It doesn’t really matter who gets there first.
- Do you think that either CJ Abrams or Xavier Edwards will switch to center field to possibly take over at some point?Also how are scouts assessing their progress at short defensively?
Kyle Glaser: Abrams. He’ll make the move at some point and become the Padres’ center fielder of the future. Edwards has already moved to second base. That’s his position long-term. The arm isn’t there for shortstop.
- What are we to make of Connor Scott's scorching start at Jupiter?
Kyle Glaser: It’s nice to see. It’s also been six games. What’s more meaningful is the season-long progression – how Scott really turned it on the final month at Clinton and is carrying it forward, especially after the early-season reviews from scouts were really, really not good.
- I'm not even a Dbacks fan, but I've been impressed with the growth of their system the last few years. A few pitchers who have caught my eye this year include Josh Green, Levi Kelly and Luis Frias. A penny for your thoughts...
Kyle Glaser: Green’s sinker is going to give him a chance to pitch in the majors. And with the standard warnings about low-level pitchers, the growth from both Kelly and Frias is certainly nice to see. The D-backs have put together a really strong organization, top-to-bottom. They’ve hired a lot of good scouts, gotten creative in some of their player development and front office positions, and have a nice mix of old school and new school thought. There’s a nice organizational foundation taking shape in Arizona.
Jeter Downs (Rancho Cucamonga):
- Hi Kyle, thanks for the chat today! Josiah Gray has rightfully gotten a lot of attention in 2019 after the two of us came over to the Dodgers over the offseason. After a slow April, I've raked since. I'm currently in the Cal League's top 10 in runs, doubles, HR, XBH, RBI, SB, SLG, and OPS all while missing some time but have flown relatively under the radar. That's a lot to like for someone that will stick as a middle infielder. Do you see me as a top 100 candidate come 2020?
Kyle Glaser: Hey there, my pleasure. Downs is a good player who has a big league future, but he's not Top 100 level. There's a lot of swings and misses there (the strikeout total isn't overly high, but there's a lot of early count swings and misses that put him in some holes) and the quality of his ABs is really, really inconsistent, even in the context of a guy in his age 20 season in the Cal League. He's a good player, but he profiles as more of an everyday utilityman (kind of similar to the role Enrique Hernandez fills for the Dodgers now) than a true everyday player. Again, a good player who is very valuable to a big league team - but not a Top 100 guy as a prospect.
Bob from Texas (Texas):
- Now that Waters and Pache are both in AAA is it out of the question that next years Atlanta outfield is Acuna, Waters and Pache to start the year? Or do they spend more time in AAA?
Kyle Glaser: I would not expect that to be the Braves outfield on Opening Day, but there is definitely a chance it will be the Braves outfield at some point later in the season.
- Does Ryan Mountcastle get a cup of coffee this year in Baltimore?
Kyle Glaser: He should. Defense needs work but lord knows the Orioles have nothing to lose and might as well get his bat up so he can acclimated to big league pitching.
Marty (El Paso, TX):
- How excited should D-backs fans be about a possible lineup of 1. Carroll, 2. Thomas, 3. Robinson, 4. Beer ? Pump the breaks or get season tickets for 2023?
Kyle Glaser: Pump the breaks. If you have three great prospects in the A-ball or below levels, odds are only one is going to make it. But there is a really nice talent base unfolding in Arizona, and even if two of those first three don't pan out, there are plenty of other options for guys who will. Also....this isn't a bad team right now. Might as well get your season tickets now.
Robert (Buffalo, NY):
- Has Nate Pearson done enough to show his durability and skill to pass some upper end minor league prospects that have dealt with serious injuries this year...luzardo, Reyes, Honeywell, Whitley? Can you see him as high as #3 best pitching prospect behind Mize and Gore?
Kyle Glaser: The answer to where Pearson stands in the prospect pitching pecking order is in the Top 100
Sam (Cleveland, OH):
- What are your thoughts on Ethan Hankins? Is he the best arm in the system? What’s to like, what’s not to like?
Kyle Glaser: Hankins' pure stuff is certainly exciting and there's an argument it's the best in the system. Clean mechanics, strong body, there's been a lot of positive reviews from evaluators. Durability and control (4.2 BB/9) are the two things he needs to work on. But he's young with good arm. There's a lot to like. You'd take him.
Howard (Seattle, WA):
- Who’s stock has increased the most since the 2019 draft? If you re did the top 5 would it look any different that it went?
Kyle Glaser: With the caveat that you should never, ever, ever go crazy (in either direction) based on complex league stats/performance, some of the early reviews on Abrams are definitely pointing in the direction that he should have gone higher than No. 6.
- Lux has more value as a SS but it's clear they're not trading him and he's destined for 2B. So why not play him there now?
Kyle Glaser: In case Corey Seager's injuries keep cropping up. He hasn't looked the same this year, offensively or defensively. Having Lux work on his throwing accuracy issues so that he's ready for SS in case Seager's body keeps betraying him is the right call at this point
Josh (Los Angeles):
- DJ Peters - is the K improvement real? If so, we're talking about a CF who is a 60 runner with 70 pop, and, all of a sudden has a legit hit tool where none was present. If it is real, an athlete like this ought to fly up the charts, no?
Kyle Glaser: He's not a 60 runner. He's a 50 runner - still impressive speed for a guy as big as he is. Those long strides help him cover some extra ground. As far as the K improvement, pitchers in Triple-A are avoiding the strike zone like the plague with how ridiculous the situation has gotten with the new balls. I would take any and every offensive improvement you see in Triple-A-with any player-with many, many large grains of salt.
Bill (Best Coast):
- Did you push this chat back a day to hold it on Mike Trout's birthday?
Kyle Glaser: Sorry for the delay folks, had to write up the news of Joe Girardi being named Team USA manager for Olympic qualifying. I like where your head is at Bill, but no. I had to push it back a day because I spent all morning at the Area Code Games and then the afternoon/evening in Lake Elsinore, so the hours just weren't available
- Between Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Brady Singer, and Logan Gilbert, who’s your favorite and why? Thank you.
Kyle Glaser: The answer to this is in the Top 100
- Is Anthony Kay underrated? A lot of Blue Jays fan don’t seem to realize how good he was even just a month ago.
Kyle Glaser: He's a good pitcher. Tough to say if Blue Jays fans are underrating him because I'm not sure what they think of him. But he's a power-armed lefty with three pitches and every chance to stick in the middle-to-back of a rotation. Probably more back because the command and control are inconsistent. But he's a good prospect, and someone who should help the Jays.
Tim (San Bernardino):
- What can you tell me about Josiah G's stuff, command and projection? Guy is having a phenomenal year.
Kyle Glaser: The stuff is really good. 93-96 and he holds 95 into the late inning of his starts with life, flashes you an above-average slider. His changeup wasn't there the night I saw him (too firm, played like a BP fastball) but others have seen it good enough at other times to go average on it. He throws strikes, pounds the zone...he's good. He's got a chance to slot in nicely behind Walker Buehler and Dustin May in the Dodgers rotation of the 2020s. Great makeup too. Great guy, great competitor.
- It feels like Edward Olivares is experiencing a legit breakout this year in AA but it doesnt feel like people are talking about it. What do you think the reason is? and do you think its legit?
Kyle Glaser: One thing to keep in mind is Amarillo is has a giant jetstream and is playing really hitter-friendly. I had one scout last night compare it to Lancaster - not as extreme to all parts of the park, but there are nights the wind picks up and really carries balls out. Most evaluators still see Olivares as an up-down extra OF at this point, but there have been some strides in the right direction.
- A few young lefties carving up the SAL, Drew Rom and Seth Corry. Whats the upside here?
Kyle Glaser: Corry has the raw stuff to be a power lefthanded starter. Now that he's throwing strikes he looks like he actually might have a legit chance to get there. It's all about command and control with him. Rom's stuff isn't loud, but he's a smart pitcher who knows how to miss bats. Those guys sometimes end up making it to the back of rotations.
- Does Jo Adell come up before the 40-man? Or after? Or not at all? Any idea?
Kyle Glaser: He has a chance. It just depends on how willing the Angels are to have him take up a 40-man spot going into the offseason. They're not really in the hunt this season and having roster flexibility is always nice going into offseasons. But there's a chance.
- What are your thoughts on Gabriel Arias? Only 19 and in High A, plus defense at SS, and he's starting to hit the snot out of the ball.
Kyle Glaser: I've always kind of liked him (and I have the chat history to prove it :) ). The pitch selection is getting much, much better, even just comparing from April until now. There's a lot of line drives to right-center and he's certainly growing in the box. There is still some skepticism from evaluators he'll hit enough to be a true everyday guy, but he's moving in the right direction and is definitely going to find himself on the Cal League Top 20 prospects list
- How good of a prospect is Jeremy Pena? He is rated highly on defense and his hit tool seems to be coming along nicely.
Kyle Glaser: Defensive reviews are strong across the board, bat is just a little light. There's path for him to make it as a utility guy. Play SS/2B/3B/LF/RF, do a little bit of everything defensively. A nice complementary player is generally seen as his ceiling at the moment.
- What can you tell us about Ronald Bolanos in the Padres system? He's someone that stuck out to me in terms of swinging strike rates considering his age (22) at AA. He's also running a respectable BB/9.
Kyle Glaser: He's got a pretty wide velo band, 89-98, and it kind of depends on his focus how hard he throws. At his best he's 94-96 with a really good slider. He's seen as a reliever long-term, but a good one.
Brandon J (Altadena, CA):
- Not sure if he qualifies as a prospect, but what can you tell us about Victor Gonzalez from the Dodgers? He’s a name I have never heard of that I have seen mentioned the last couple of days.
Kyle Glaser: He's a riser in their system. Had Tommy John surgery in 2017, came back and now is up to 98 from the left side out of the bullpen. He has a real chance to help the Dodgers out in relief in the next year or two
- Is Luis Campusano a top-5 C prospect in the minors at this point?
Kyle Glaser: He's making his way up the list, that's for sure
- I feel like everyone talks about the Angels having a good system, but most sites have them ranked near the middle or in the twenties. What do you think of their system?
Kyle Glaser: Well it dropped for the right reasons - they graduated Shohei Ohtani and Griffin Canning, as well as Luis Rengifo and Ty Buttrey. Systems dropping because they graduate guys is exactly what should happen - its a good thing. That's the point of this, getting them to the majors. So with that talent loss, yes the Angels are in the middle tier. But their system got stronger than it had been in years, and now we're starting to see if filter up to the majors where it counts.
Brandon Johnson (Pasadena, CA):
- Is Jacob Amaya more of a prospect or an org guy in your opinion?
Kyle Glaser: He's a prospect. Young middle infielder who can play defense and gets on base. It's probably more of a backup/utility profile in the end, but there's legit major league potential - which makes him a prospect
Jesus Sanchez (New Orleans):
- Are you surprised I was moved at the trade deadline? Still being only 21 and already in AAA, I would've thought my proximity to the majors would have kept me in the Rays' short-term plans. Is it safe to the say that the Rays internally have become less confident that I'll reach my plus bat/plus power potential?
Kyle Glaser: There isn't plus bat, plus power potential for Sanchez. It's average hit, plus power. But you've gotta something to get something (well, in most cases) and the Rays got two big league arms who can help in Richards and Anderson. The trade was understandable
- Michael Grove has slipped a bit in the midseason Dodgers top 30. Can you give us some insight into what evaluators are seeing from him this season?
Kyle Glaser: It hasn't been good. The fastball has been 89-92, top 93, breaking ball hasn't been all that great - it's all just very hittable stuff. The hope is this is just him working his way back from TJ and that everything will come back in year two. Because right now, he's being written up as a kind of emergency depth starter/long man based on what he's showing.
Andrew R (PA):
- Brailyn Marquez pitched 5 shut out innings in his High A debut yesterday, his 3rd consecutive start without allowing a run. What is his upside?
Kyle Glaser: It might be as high as anyone in the Cubs' system. What he's showing, and the reviews we're getting, the Cubs might have something very, very special there.
Matt (Norfolk, VA):
- With the AAA balls creating such a change in offensive production, do scouts and evaluators need to put more time, effort, and weight into AA performance?
Kyle Glaser: They already are. There's a train of thought out there that any and all Triple-A performances this year should be given zero consideration - especially if they were at the level last year and weren't very good and all the sudden they popped this year.
Kyle Glaser: MADDEN
Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for coming out, and have a great rest of your week.