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Julio Rodriguez's Hitting Ability Puts Him Among Rare Company



Because he missed time playing in an Olympic qualifier and in the Olympics, Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez is unlikely to qualify for any league’s batting title this year.

Maybe it’s because of that absence that his 2021 season may be sliding a little under the radar. Rodriguez is hitting .347/.446/.546 between High-A Everett and Double-A Arkansas through Thursday. If he did meet the plate appearance qualifications, that batting average would rank third best in the minors, and best among all hitters who are not playing in the very inviting hitting conditions of the Triple-A West.

Even more importantly, Rodriguez is hitting .330 for the entirety of his minor league career. Between stops in the Dominican Summer League (.315), Low-A West Virginia (.293), High-A Modesto (.462 in only 65 at-bats), High-A Everett (.325) and Double-A Arkansas (.366), Rodriguez has compiled that .330 batting average in 918 plate appearances. His career batting average hasn’t dipped below .300 since he went 2-for-3 in a Dominican Summer League game on June 29, 2018.

How remarkable is that? The Baseball America stats database has full statistics for every player in the minor leagues going back to 2008, as well as the minor league stats for anyone who was an active MLB or MiLB player in 2007. Every player with 500 or more plate appearances in the U.S. minors and a career average of .325 or higher in that timeframe has made the majors, other than Rodriguez.

Admittedly, at this point saying that we expect Rodriguez, the No. 2 prospect in baseball, to make the majors would be the lowest of low expectations.

But the track record of those who hit .325 or higher for their MiLB careers is pretty exceptional, and the record for those who hit .330 or better, which Rodriguez is doing, is remarkable. The other 25 players who have a .325 career minor league average have combined for 47 all-star appearances so far, with 18 of the 25 making at least one all-star appearance. With players like Wander Franco, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto on the list, there are likely many more all-star appearances to come. The group has won six MVP awards already.

Here’s a list of every hitter in our database with a .325 or better career minor league average with 500 or more plate appearances in the minors in the 21st century.

PlayerPCL?BAVGPAGABRH2B3BHRBBSO
Juan SotoL.36252112245379164308225866
Howie Kendrick*R.35818754081649347590130285385220
Brandon Belt*L.349885198700138244601034141153
Adam Eaton*L.34616973541333286461891627183219
Mike Trout*R.34114182901126244384583523155213
Lyle Overbay*L.340233052620223506881641563241334
Matt WietersB.33972417760411820532433105109
Chad Tracy*L.338178941816222755481041037124163
Billy Butler*R.33617843971532298515110873204267
Kyle Schwarber*L.3346701585541101853643896141
Michael Conforto*L.3337431676521072174352470109
Buster Posey*R.3337571726311252104942598102
Kendrys Morales*B.332131430912201984057025572168
Wander FrancoB.3329452148291582754820279575
Luis ArraezL.331160036714281924738296122129
Juan PierreL.33115803171311216434541219275
Ryan ZimmermanR.33143711140269133343152862
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.R.3311284288107119235471644151139
Julio RodriguezR.33091820779816726355152717794
Joe MauerL.3281287304112115336866510138112
J.D. Martinez*R.32815213571352228443104956120249
Ken Harvey*R.3271629379144623547394652117252
Hank Blalock*L.327204645717572865741271444202234
Kyle Seager*L.3261312278112920636883622133172
Brad Miller*L.32512482761054211343681139144216
Kris Bryant*R.32581018766415221649356102212

There is no one on this list who didn't have some sort of useful MLB career. The “worst” big leaguer on the list—Ken Harvey—made an all-star game. Among those who hit .330, the worst big leaguers are players like Lyle Overbay (14-year MLB career, 1,355 career hits) and Chad Tracy (nine MLB seasons and just shy of 3,000 MLB plate appearances).

Rodriguez has made this list without any time in the Pacific Coast League (which is now the Triple-A West). For years, the hitter-friendly conditions of the PCL, and especially the western part of that league, helped hitters raise their batting averages. Of the 25 other hitters with a .325 career average, 17 of them spent time in the Pacific Coast League. You may also note that recent stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.331) and Wander Franco (.332) sit just a little bit ahead of Rodriguez on this list. Juan Soto's .362 average seems more amazing every month, even if it just barely cleared 500 plate appearances because of his extremely rapid ascent.

Padres infielder Euribiel Angeles and Red Sox outfielder Gilberto Jimenez both didn't miss this chart by much. Neither has yet to play above Class A, but Angeles' .343 career batting average would make this list if he had 58 more plate appearances. Jimenez has enough plate appearances, but he currently has a .324 career minor league batting average.

In 2021, batting average is understandably less valued than other more well-rounded stats, but minor league batting averages remain a useful way to measure the pure hitting ability of a prospect, and at the highest levels of production, it’s a strong indicator of future MLB ability.

And when it comes to hitting for average, Rodriguez sits among very good company.

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Julio Rodriguez: Mariners 2021 Minor League Player Of The Year

The 20-year-old showed the Mariners everything they wanted to see, both on and off the field.

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