How Team USA Can Advance To The World Baseball Classic Quarterfinals

Image credit: Team USA (Photo by Daniel Shirey/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The final day of pool play at the World Baseball Classic could be fairly straightforward.

Or, it could devolve into chaos.

Three quarterfinal spots are up for grabs on the final day of pool play. In Pool D, the situation isn’t complicated. Venezuela has already won the pool and punched its ticket to the quarterfinals. Tonight’s contest between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico is a winner-take-all game—the winner advances to the quarterfinals, and the loser is eliminated.

In Pool C, however, many scenarios are in play. Team USA, Mexico and Canada all enter the day with 2-1 records. Depending on the outcomes of today’s contests between Mexico and Canada at 3 p.m. ET and USA and Colombia at 10 p.m. ET, any combination of the three could advance to the quarterfinals. There are even multiple scenarios in which Colombia, which enters the day with a 1-2 record, finishes second in the pool and advances to the quarterfinals.

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. The second tiebreaker is the lowest quotient of runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.

Below is a rundown of all the scenarios that are in play for Pool C, including what Team USA has to do to advance.

Mexico plays Canada at 3 p.m. ET. Team USA plays Colombia at 10 p.m. ET.

Scenario 1: Mexico beats Canada, USA beats Colombia

What Happens: Mexico and USA advance to the quarterfinals. Mexico wins the pool by virtue of its head-to-head win over USA and faces the Dominican Republic-Puerto Rico winner in the quarterfinals. USA finishes in second place in the pool and faces Venezuela in the quarterfinals.

Scenario 2: Canada beats Mexico, USA beats Colombia

What Happens: Canada and USA advance to the quarterfinals. USA wins the pool by virtue of its head-to-head win over Canada and faces the Dominican Republic-Puerto Rico winner in the quarterfinals. Canada finishes second in the pool and faces Venezuela in the quarterfinals.

Scenario 3: Mexico beats Canada, Colombia beats USA

What Happens: Mexico wins the pool as the only team with a 3-1 record and advances to the quarterfinals. Canada, Colombia and USA all finish 2-2. USA wins the tiebreaker and advances to the quarterfinals as long as it loses by fewer than four runs. If USA loses by four or more runs, it is eliminated and Colombia advances to the quarterfinals.

Runs quotient through March 14

	Runs Allowed	Defensive Outs	Runs Quotient
USA	1	21	0.048
Colombia	5	27	0.185
Canada	12	45	0.267

 

Scenario 4: Canada beats Mexico, Colombia beats USA

What Happens: Canada wins the pool as the only team with a 3-1 record and advances to the quarterfinals. Mexico, Colombia and USA all finish 2-2. Colombia finishes second in the pool by virtue of head-to-head wins over USA and Mexico and advances to the quarterfinals.