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Fantasy Baseball: July Dynasty Stock Report

Gavin_Lux_JohnWilliamson.jpg (1)
Gavin Lux (photo by John Williamson)

The monthly Baseball America dynasty stock report helps fantasy players make sense of the numbers. In this installment we focus on performance by prospects in the minor leagues at each position in July.

For each position, we highlight a Standout player, who should be viewed as that month's prospect all-star, a Slumping player, who is a prominent prospect who has underperformed, and a Surging player, who is a lower-profile prospect who is playing well and could be worth tracking.

Slumping players are included not to pile on, but rather to highlight players for whom you may be able to buy low.

Key to the abbreviations used. Those with a plus sign (+) are index statistics in which the player is compared with league average, where a score of 100 is exactly average.

For a refresher on the abbreviations found herein, please see the June dynasty stock report.

Note: Two players included here were Astros prospects in July—Seth Beer and Josh Rojas—but are now members of the Diamondbacks organization after the Zack Greinke trade.


CATCHER

🔥 Standout
Gabriel Moreno, Blue Jays
Low Class A Lansing (Midwest)
7.9 RAA, 1.1 WAA, 164 OPS+, 162 XB+

📉 Slumping
Jacob Nottingham, Brewers
Triple-A San Antonio (Pacific Coast)
-4.8 RAA, -0.3 WAA, 44 OPS+, 42 XB+

📈 Surging
Logan O'Hoppe, Phillies
Short-season Williamsport (New York-Penn)
9.8 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 227 OPS+, 362 XB+

The Phillies drafted O'Hoppe out of a Long Island high school in 2018, dipping into their bonus pool to sign him for $215,000 in the 23rd round. He opened eyes in the Gulf Coast League in his debut and has continued showing big power in 2019. The 19-year-old O'Hoppe draws positive reviews for his work behind the plate, and his big swing produced big results in July with a .378 isolated slugging percentage.


FIRST BASE

🔥 Standout
Seth Beer, Astros (now D-backs)
Double-A Corpus Christi (Texas)
13.6 RAA, 1.3 WAA, 223 OPS+, 217 XB+

📉 Slumping
Grant Lavigne, Rockies
Low Class A Asheville (South Atlantic)
-2.7 RAA, -0.5 WAA, 62 OPS+, 29 XB+

📈 Surging
Mason Martin, Pirates
High Class A Bradenton (Florida State)
13.0 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 206 OPS+, 379 XB+

Martin slugged his way to a Gulf Coast League MVP award in his 2017 pro debut. He fell off the prospect map with a down year in 2018, but he's back on the Pirates' radar this season. The 20-year-old lefthanded hitter had mashed 28 home runs at two Class A stops this season, giving him the highest total for any minor leaguer who had not played at Triple-A. Granted, 23 of Martin's home runs were hit at the power hitter's paradise that is low Class A Greensboro.


SECOND BASE

🔥 Standout
Josh Rojas, Astros (now D-backs)
Triple-A Round Rock (Pacific Coast)
7.5 RAA, 0.7 WAA, 161 OPS+, 141 XB+, 427 SB+

📉 Slumping
Esteury Ruiz, Padres
High Class A Lake Elsinore (California)
-7.4 RAA, -0.8 WAA, 37 OPS+, 24 XB+, 361 SB+

📈 Surging
Aaron Bracho, Indians
Rookie-level Arizona League
11.9 RAA, 1.1 WAA, 233 OPS+, 263 XB+,75 SB+

Signed out of Venezuela in 2017, Bracho did not make his pro debut until this season because he missed 2018 with an arm injury. But the sweet-swinging, 18-year-old switch-hitter has had no trouble adapting to pro ball. Through 26 games, Bracho had hit .305/.412/.642 with 18 extra-base hits to go with 19 walks and 19 strikeouts.


THIRD BASE

🔥 Standout
Abraham Toro, Astros
Double-A Corpus Christi (Texas)
10.4 RAA, 1.2 WAA, 191 OPS+, 145 XB+

📉 Slumping
Nick Quintana, Tigers
Low Class A West Michigan (Midwest)
-7.2 RAA, -0.8 WAA, 40 OPS+, 79 XB+

📈 Surging
Luis Toribio, Giants
Rookie-level Arizona League
10.4 RAA, 0.9 WAA, 217 OPS+, 218 XB+

The 18-year-old Dominican lefthanded hitter has shown incredible plate patience in two pro seasons, drawing 79 walks in 97 games and recording a .436 on-base percentage. Toribio led the Arizona League with 28 walks through 33 games this season, but it's his tantalizing raw power that should excite fantasy players. He will need to unlock his power more frequently in the future, especially because he faces a possible move to first base.


SHORTSTOP

🔥 Standout
Gavin Lux, Dodgers
Triple-A Oklahoma City (Pacific Coast)
17.5 RAA, 1.6 WAA, 229 OPS+, 202 XB+, 0 SB+

📉 Slumping
Luis Garcia, Phillies
Low Class A Lakewood (South Atlantic)
-8.1 RAA, -0.8 WAA, 39 OPS+, 44 XB+, 77 SB+

📈 Surging
Greg Jones, Rays
Short-season Hudson Valley (New York-Penn)
10.2 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 208 OPS+, 152 XB+, 366 SB+

Drafted 22nd overall out of UNC Wilmington in June, Jones is an 80 runner who has gotten off to a blazing start in pro ball. The switch-hitter hit .395 in July with 11 stolen bases in 17 attempts. Players with this kind of speed who can put the ball in play are positioned to dominate short-season ball—and Jones had a .485 BABIP in July—but the hitting gains Jones has made in college and in his pro debut are encouraging for his future.


Francisco_Alvarez_TracyProfittFourSeam.jpg

PODCAST: Fantasy Hipster (8/16)

This week's podcast focuses on prospects Francisco Alvarez, Aaron Bracho and Alexander Ovalles, among others.

OUTFIELD

🔥 Standouts
Trent Grisham, Brewers
Triple-A San Antonio (Pacific Coast)
17.1 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 217 OPS+, 183 XB+, 176 SB+

Luis Robert, White Sox
Triple-A Charlotte (International)
10.5 RAA, 1.0 WAA, 153 OPS+, 172 XB+, 400 SB+

Kristian Robinson, D-backs
Short-season Hillsboro (Northwest)
11.6 RAA, 1.2 WAA, 197 OPS+, 273 XB+, 267 SB+

📉 Slumping
D'Shawn Knowles, Angels
Rookie-level Orem (Pioneer)
-7.8 RAA, -0.7 WAA, 43 OPS+, 45 XB+, 128 SB+

Jerar Encarnacion, Marlins
High Class A Jupiter (Florida State)
-7.7 RAA, -1.0 WAA, 54 OPS+, 46 XB+, 52 SB+

Lolo Sanchez, Pirates
High Class A Bradenton (Florida State)
-5.8 RAA, -0.8 WAA, 32 OPS+, 20 XB+, 358 SB+

📈 Surging
DJ Peters, Dodgers
Triple-A Oklahoma City (Pacific Coast)
12.5 RAA, 1.0 WAA, 190 OPS+, 213 XB+, 59 SB+

A promotion to Oklahoma City helped Peters' best asset—his power—shine. Through his first 31 games with the Triple-A ball, he hit 12 home runs and slugged .716. Even in a down year at Double-A in 2018, Peters launched 29 home runs. The year before, he won the California League MVP with 27 bombs. In other words, power will be Peters' calling card.


PITCHER

🔥 Standouts
Josiah Gray, Dodgers
Double-A Tulsa (Texas)
13.7 RAA, 1.5 WAA, 177 ERA+, 2.56 FIP

Ian Anderson, Braves
Double-A Mississippi (Southern)
6.5 RAA, 0.8 WAA, 140 ERA+, 1.70 FIP

Joe Ryan, Rays
High Class A Charlotte (Florida State)
7.7 RAA, 1.0 WAA, 173 ERA+, 1.28 FIP

Shane McClanahan, Rays
High Class A Charlotte (Florida State)
5.4 RAA, 0.7 WAA, 153 ERA+, 1.64 FIP

📉 Slumping
Jordan Holloway, Marlins
High Class A Jupiter (Florida State)
-12.5 RAA, -1.5 WAA, -69 ERA+, 6.73 FIP

Tyson Miller, Cubs
Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)
-11.4 RAA, -1.0 WAA, -3 ERA+, 9.03 FIP

Mason Denaburg, Nationals
Rookie-level Gulf Coast League
-10.2 RAA, -1.1 WAA, -8 ERA+, 5.26 FIP

Matthew Liberatore, Rays
Low Class A Bowling Green (Midwest)
-2.4 RAA, -0.3 WAA, 28 ERA+, 4.83 FIP

📈 Surging
Seth Corry, Giants
Low Class A Augusta (South Atlantic)
14.6 RAA, 1.7 WAA, 185 ERA+, 1.96 FIP

The 20-year-old lefthander leads the South Atlantic League in ERA (1.85), strikeouts (129) and opponent average (.165). Corry has smoothed out his delivery since his high school days in Utah and has cruised through his first year of full-season ball. He lacks frontline stuff, but his performance has been front line: he has an 0.84 ERA in his last eight starts with 56 strikeouts in 43 innings.

Kevin Smith, Mets
Double-A Binghamton (Eastern)
12.2 RAA, 1.5 WAA, 179 ERA+, 1.98 FIP

Smith is a deceptive lefty who has zoomed from the seventh round of the 2018 draft to Double-A in a year. The Georgia product throws a high-spin fastball and slider that level lefthanded hitters. In his last seven starts, Smith has recorded a 1.34 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 40.1 innings.

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