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Fantasy Baseball: August Dynasty Stock Report

Marte, Noelvi 1801 (Mitchell).jpg
Mariners shortstop Noelvi Marte as an amateur (photo by Bill Mitchell)

The monthly Baseball America dynasty stock report helps fantasy players make sense of the numbers. In this installment we focus on performance by prospects in the minor leagues at each position in August, plus a few days in September.

For each position, we highlight a Standout player, who should be viewed as that month's prospect all-star, a Slumping player, who is a prominent prospect who has underperformed, and a Surging player, who is a lower-profile prospect who is playing well and could be worth tracking.

Metrics displayed with a plus sign (+) are index statistics in which the player is compared with league average, where a score of 100 is exactly average. For a refresher on the abbreviations found herein, please see the June dynasty stock report.


CATCHER

🔥 Standout
Daulton Varsho, D-backs
Double-A Jackson (Southern)
13.9 RAA, 1.9 WAA, 239 OPS+, 239 XB+

📉 Slumping
M.J. Melendez, Royals
High Class A Wilmington (Carolina)
–6.2 RAA, –0.6 WAA, 44 OPS+, 125 XB+

📈 Surging
Rayner Santana, Giants
DSL Giants (Dominican Summer)
13.1 RAA, 1.3 WAA, 284 OPS+, 629 XB+

One of the youngest players in the 2018 international signing class, Santana made his pro debut this year and played all but a few weeks of this season at age 16. The Venezuelan's mature offensive approach belied his youth. Santana shined in the Dominican Summer League by finishing one off the league lead with 10 home runs, while ranking top 10 in on-base percentage (.439) and slugging (.553) and hitting .294 with 37 walks in 48 games.

Did I mention Santana was a 17-year-old catcher with an above-average arm?


FIRST BASE

🔥 Standout
Tyler Nevin, Rockies
Double-A Hartford (Eastern)
9.9 RAA, 0.9 WAA, 155 OPS+, 211 XB+

📉 Slumping
Seth Beer, D-backs
Double-A Jackson (Southern)
–2.4 RAA, –0.5 WAA, 83 OPS+, 96 XB+

📈 Surging
Tristin English, D-backs
Short-season Hillsboro (Northwest)
11.1 RAA, 1.0 WAA, 224 OPS+, 183 XB+

A two-way player at Georgia Tech and third-round pick this year, English played outfield and relieved in college but was drafted as a first baseman. In his pro debut, he has concentrated his playing time at third base in the Northwest League after initially playing right field and first base. English is an athletic righthanded hitter with some feel for the barrel and plus raw power. He ranked third in the NWL with an .838 OPS.


SECOND BASE

🔥 Standout
Andy Young, D-backs
Triple-A (Reno)
14.1 RAA, 1.3 WAA, 188 OPS+, 222 XB+, 30 SB+

📉 Slumping
Marcos Brito, Athletics
Low Class A Beloit (Midwest)
–5.9 RAA, –0.6 WAA, 24 OPS+, 37 XB+, 89 SB+

📈 Surging
Josh Smith, Yankees
Short-season Staten Island (New York-Penn)
14.3 RAA, 1.8 WAA, 225 OPS+, 168 XB+, 123 SB+

As a lefthanded-hitting Southeastern Conference shortstop with track record, Smith went off the board in the second round this year. The Yankees drafted him as a second baseman, and that is where he was stationed in his pro debut. Smith hit .324 in the New York-Penn League with a dash of power and speed and more walks than strikeouts. His game is somewhat reminiscent of the Yankees' 2016 second-rounder Nick Solak out of Louisville.


THIRD BASE

🔥 Standout
Alec Bohm, Phillies
Double-A Reading (Eastern)
9.2 RAA, 1.2 WAA, 160 OPS+, 149 XB+

📉 Slumping
Elehuris Montero, Cardinals
Double-A Springfield (Texas)
–11.7 RAA, –1.3 WAA, 18 OPS+, 49 XB+

📈 Surging
Brandon Lewis, Dodgers
Low Class A Great Lakes (Midwest)
11.7 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 227 OPS+, 274 XB+

Drafted this year in the fourth round out of UC Irvine, where he tied the program's single-season home run record, Lewis has double-plus raw power and a loose, workable swing. He quickly hit his way out of the Rookie-level Pioneer League, notching eight games of three hits or more for Ogden before being challenged with an assignment to the Midwest League. Lewis is a physical righthanded hitter who was drafted as a third baseman but spent a lot of time at first base initially before settling in at the hot corner at Great Lakes.


SHORTSTOP

🔥 Standout
Jeter Downs, Dodgers
Double-A Tulsa (Texas)
15.2 RAA, 1.9 WAA, 215 OPS+, 238 XB+, 120 SB+

📉 Slumping
Ronny Mauricio, Mets
Low Class A Columbia (South Atlantic)
–6.3 RAA, –0.6 WAA, 56 OPS+, 37 XB+, 135 SB+

📈 Surging
Noelvi Marte, Mariners
DSL Mariners (Dominican Summer)
13.4 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 255 OPS+, 283 XB+, 143 SB+

Meet your shortstop prospect crush of 2020. Marte signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018 and thrived in the Dominican Summer League this year in his pro debut. The 17-year-old hit .309 with power and speed and is poised to rocket up dynasty rankings. Marte led the DSL in total bases (134) and RBIs (53) while hitting nine homers and stealing 17 bags in 65 games.


Clarke_SChmidt_MikeDonahue.jpg

Baseball America Prospect Report -- September 13, 2019

Ka'ai Tom, Clarke Schmidt and Kris Bubic headline Friday's prospect report.

OUTFIELD

🔥 Standouts

Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
High Class A Modesto (California)
18.1 RAA, 1.9 WAA, 231 OPS+, 163 XB+, 0 SB+

Travis Swaggerty, Pirates
High Class A Bradenton (Florida State)
10.9 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 171 OPS+, 123 XB+, 204 SB+

Josh Lowe, Rays
Double-A Montgomery (Southern)
10.7 RAA, 1.3 WAA, 195 OPS+, 211 XB+, 245 SB+

📉 Slumping

DJ Peters, Dodgers
Triple-A Oklahoma City (Pacific Coast)
–9.7 RAA, –0.9 WAA, 27 OPS+, 30 XB+, 0 SB+

Victor Victor Mesa, Marlins
Double-A Jacksonville (Southern)
–9.0 RAA, –1.2 WAA, 23 OPS+, 14 XB+, 126 SB+

Corey Ray, Brewers
Triple-A San Antonio (Pacific Coast)
–8.2 RAA, –8.7 WAA, 54 OPS+, 100 XB+, 53 SB+

📈 Surging

Brenton Doyle, Rockies
Rookie-level Grand Junction (Pioneer)
17.0 RAA, 1.6 WAA, 219 OPS+, 181 XB+, 163 SB+

With the caveat that the Pioneer League is an extreme offensive environment, Doyle has shown an enticing power-speed blend that could make the product of Division II Shepherd in West Virginia a fourth-round steal. Doyle is a physical, tooled-up righthanded hitter with a chance for 50 or better grades across the board. Plus, he hit .313 in the Coastal Plain League, so despite coming from a small school he has track record with wood. Doyle was leading the PL with a .381 average, .476 on-base percentage and a 1.090 OPS. His 17 steals ranked third.

Heriberto Hernandez, Rangers
AZL Rangers (Arizona)
13.1 RAA, 1.2 WAA, 209 OPS+, 342 XB+, 110 SB+

Signed as a catcher out of the Dominican Republic in December 2017, Hernandez came into his own this season in the Arizona League before earning a late promotion to the Northwest League. Scouts are skeptical of Hernandez's ability to play catcher regular, but he has sneaky athleticism and a strong arm that will play in right field, his primary position this year.

But the reason you want to keep an eye on Hernandez is his bat. The 19-year-old delivered a home run with a 112 mph exit velocity during the AZL playoffs, and his name dots the league leaderboards. He led the AZL with 66 hits, 32 extra-base hits and 48 RBIs while finishing second with 11 bombs and third with a 1.079 OPS.

Peyton Burdick, Marlins
Low Class A Clinton (Midwest)
12.4 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 205 OPS+, 253 XB+, 133 SB+

Part of the Marlins' college-heavy 2019 draft class, Burdick had a better pro debut than first-rounder JJ Bleday or supplemental first-rounder Kameron Misner. Granted, the 22-year-old Burdick is the oldest of the trio because he was a redshirt junior at mid-major power Wright State. Burdick worked as a two-way player early in his college career—he had Tommy John surgery as a freshman—and is a strong athlete, mitigating concerns based on his 6-foot stature, righthanded bat and corner-only defensive profile.

The Marlins aggressively pushed Burdick to low Class A Clinton, where he ranked third in the Midwest League with nearly 24 weighted runs above average in just 63 games.


PITCHER

🔥 Standouts

Roansy Contreras, Yankees
Low Class A Charleston (South Atlantic)
13.1 RAA, 1.5 WAA, 172 ERA+, 2.95 FIP

Seth Corry, Giants
Low Class A Augusta (South Atlantic)
12.3 RAA, 1.4 WAA, 166 ERA+, 1.85 FIP

Kris Bubic, Royals
High Class A Wilmington (Carolina)
12.0 RAA, 1.3 WAA, 153 ERA+, 2.08 FIP

Bryse Wilson, Braves
Triple-A Gwinnett (International)
10.5 RAA, 1.0 WAA, 172 ERA+, 2.69 FIP

📉 Slumping

Shane McClanahan, Rays
High Class A Charlotte (Florida State)
–8.5 RAA, –1.1 WAA, 0 ERA+, 3.17 FIP

Braxton Garrett, Marlins
High Class A Jupiter (Florida State)
–2.8 RAA, –0.4 WAA, –18 ERA+, 5.02 FIP

Adonis Medina, Phillies
Double-A Reading (Eastern)
–7.6 RAA, –1.1 WAA, 42 ERA+, 4.82 FIP

Albert Abreu, Yankees
Double-A Trenton (Eastern)
–2.3 RAA, –0.3 WAA, –17 ERA+, 5.03 FIP

📈 Surging

Shawn Dubin, Astros
High Class A Fayetteville (Carolina)
4.4 RAA, 0.6 WAA, 139 ERA+, 1.83 FIP

The Astros' pitching assembly line has produced another high-ceiling arm. Drafted in the 13th round in 2018 out of NAIA Georgetown College in Kentucky, Dubin pitched his way to the Carolina League this season and impressed scouts with his quick arm and big fastball. He really shined in his final three starts for Fayetteville by going 3-0 and not allowing a run in 18 innings to go with 25 strikeouts, two walks and just four hits allowed. Dubin finished the year pitching at 95 mph and has flashed a major league slider, though he carries reliever risk based on his repertoire and thin frame that offers little physical projection.

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