2024 NCAA Baseball Tournament Bracket: Projected Field Of 64 (May 1)


With the calendar now flipped to May, college baseball is into the stretch run of the season. Most conferences have just three weekends of play remaining before the start of their tournaments.

Still, at this time of the season, there is some projection involved with building a Field of 64. This is meant to illustrate what the tournament would look like on Selection Monday, not how it would be seeded if it started tomorrow.

You can find our first Bubble Watch of the 2024 season here.

2024 NCAA Baseball Bracket

College Station, Texas   Dallas
1. (1) Texas A&M^*   1. (16) Dallas Baptist^
2. Louisiana*   2. Oklahoma
3. Lamar*   3. Oregon
4. Nebraska-Omaha*   4. Columbia*
Fayetteville, Ark.   Durham
1. (2) Arkansas^   1. (15) Duke^
2. UConn*   2. Georgia
3. Louisiana Tech*   3. Northeastern 
4. Arkansas-Little Rock*   4. S.C.-Upstate*
Clemson, S.C.   Irvine, Calif.
1. (3) Clemson^*   1. (14) UC Irvine^*
2. San Diego*   2. Arizona
3. Troy   3. Texas
4. Jacksonville*   4. Grand Canyon*
Chapel Hill, N.C.   Terre Haute, Ind.
1. (4) North Carolina^   1. (13) Indiana State^*
2. Alabama   2. Vanderbilt
3. UNC Wilmington   3. Louisville
4. Sacred Heart*   4. Bowling Green State*
Knoxville, Tenn.   Columbia, S.C.
1. (5) Tennessee^   1. (12) South Carolina^
2. James Madison   2. Wake Forest
3. Purdue   3. Charleston*
4. Bryant*   4. Samford *
Tallahassee, Fla.   Charlottesville, Va.
1. (6) Florida State^   1. (11) Virginia^
2. Mississippi State   2. Coastal Carolina
3. Southern Miss   3. Texas Tech
4. Florida A&M*   4. VCU*
Lexington, Ky.   Stillwater, Okla.
1. (7) Kentucky^   1. (10) Oklahoma State^*
2. West Virginia   2. Nebraska*
3. Virginia Tech   3. Florida
4. Wright State*   4. Niagara*
Greenville, N.C.   Corvallis, Ore.
1. (8) East Carolina^*   1. (9) Oregon State^
2. NC State   2. UC Santa Barbara
3. Utah   3. Kansas State
4. Army*   4. Fresno State*

* denotes automatic bid
^ denotes regional host

Last Four In

61. Florida
62. Louisville
63. Purdue
64. Utah

First Four Out

65. Kansas
66. California
67. TCU
68. LSU

Next Four Out

69. Mississippi
70. Georgia Tech
71. Georgetown
72. Illinois

When does the NCAA baseball bracket come out? 

The full field of 64 is released on Monday, May 27 at 12 p.m. ET, an event commonly referred to as “Selection Monday.” The 2024 NCAA Tournament is set to begin later that week with regionals on Friday, May 31. That sets the path to the 2024 NCAA College World Series, which begins Friday, June 14. 

Some notes about the field

Four changes on the host line this week. Dallas Baptist, Oklahoma State, UC Irvine and Virginia all move up to the host line in this projection. I feel best about the Cowboys, who are now back in the top 20 of RPI and a game out of first place in the Big 12 (and they own the tiebreaker over both first-place Oklahoma and second-place West Virginia). I just can’t quit Virginia, which has a top-15 RPI and a series win against Wake Forest that may prove crucial in determining the ACC pecking order.  

DBU and UCI are more interesting in their move to the host line. The Patriots went through an April funk, losing three straight series. They pulled out of it last week with a sweep of FIU and are back in the top 20 of RPI. The Anteaters also rose into the top 20 after a big win Tuesday at San Diego, the West Coast Conference leader. UCI continues to have the inside track toward winning the Big West thanks to its series win against UC Santa Barbara and homefield advantage in its series to come against Cal Poly and Cal State Northridge, the other teams competing at the top of the conference.

At the same time DBU and UCI have made upward moves, Coastal Carolina, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have all slipped out of the top 20 of RPI. The top 25 of RPI – a range any perspective host must be in – is right now primarily populated by the 16 projected hosts and teams with uninspiring conference records that are likely going to finish right around .500 in conference play. UCSB is an exception, but it has worse metrics than DBU and a series loss to UCI, leaving it on the outside looking in. Nebraska is also an exception, but its RPI is still only 24 and it is lacking on premier wins. 

All of that has created opportunity for teams like DBU and UCI. It’s up to them to close strong, but things have opened up for them at the start of May.

The top-eight seed race is pretty boring. The top eight seeds in this projection are the top eight teams in RPI (in a different order). And it’s hard to see that materially changing. Short of Oregon State or Oklahoma State getting really hot in May, the top eight seeds today are likely to be the top eight seeds on Selection Monday. 

The bubble, however, is getting interesting. Maybe it’s because I kicked off Bubble Watch this week and deep dived every bubble team’s tournament path. Or maybe it’s because we’re getting closer to the end of the season and things are more developed. Whatever the case, I think there are some good teams on both sides of the cut line. Leaving Kansas and Cal out of the field in this projection, for instance, wasn’t easy. Things are truly starting to get real.

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