2023 MLB Season Preview: National League East Division Preview
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Team to Beat
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are in position this season to win their six straight NL East crown. Atlanta returns the lineup core—Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson—that finished third in MLB in runs scored last season while adding 28-year-old catcher Sean Murphy. The offense also will benefit from returns to health from Acuña and Ozzie Albies as well as potential growth for sophomores Michael Harris and Vaughn Grissom, who takes over shortstop from free agent departure Dansby Swanson. The pitching outlook is just as rosy in Atlanta, which ranked sixth in MLB in ERA and second in strikeouts last season. Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright anchor a rotation that could see steps forward from Ian Anderson and Michael Soroka. Raisel Iglesias takes over at closer for Kenley Jansen, with newcomer Joe Jimenez and the returning A.J. Minter in setup roles.
Top Player
Ronald Acuña Jr., RF, Braves
In a division loaded with stars, including Bryce Harper, Austin Riley, Trea Turner and Pete Alonso, it is Acuña who has the highest upside to reach. We haven’t seen Acuña at his absolute best since the first half of 2021. He tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in July of that year and returned in 2022 to put up a 114 OPS+ in 119 games. Acuña hit just 15 homers in his return, but with his legs under him this season, he is poised for 35 or more with a plate approach that has matured with age.
Top Pitcher
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Marlins
Baseball’s new Iron Man, Alcantara is the only pitcher to top 200 innings in each of the past two post-pandemic seasons. In fact, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner achieved new heights of durability last season by pitching 228.2 innings, the second-highest total since 2016, the first full season of MLB’s new live ball era. The Marlins will struggle to score runs in 2023, but they have a good chance to win any day Alcantara starts.
Top Rookie
Kodai Senga, RHP, Mets
Senga is a 30-year-old with 11 seasons of major league experience in Japan, but he is eligible for Rookie of the Year awards and stands as the NL favorite. His wide repertoire of power stuff is headlined by a mid-90s fastball and a splitter that has earned renown as the “ghost fork.” Despite the moniker, Senga throws the pitch with more splitter than forkball grip. He doesn’t “choke” the pitch as much as true forkball practitioners, resulting in similar spin, velocity and movement as a splitter. Still, American hitters don’t see the splitter as much as Japanese hitters, giving Senga a bit of a novelty advantage.
Notable storylines
—“If your ambition is to be good, you don’t make those decisions. If your ambition is to be great, you make those decisions,” Phillies owner John Middleton told reporters at spring training about his club’s Trea Turner signing. Philadelphia signed Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract, four years after signing Bryce Harper for 13 years and $330 million. The Phillies also have made commitments of at least $100 million to JT Realmuto, Zack Wheeler and Nick Castellanos, so Middleton is clearly putting his money where his mouth is. The strategy worked in 2022, when the Phillies took the Astros to six games in the World Series. The Phillies enter 2023 with the third-highest payroll in MLB, just ahead of the Padres and Dodgers, and as strong postseason favorites despite playing in the rugged NL East.
—Free agent spending was the theme of the offseason, particularly in the NL East, whose five teams combine for the highest Opening Day payroll of any division at nearly $917 million. In particular, the Mets have taken spending to a new stratosphere with owner Steve Cohen going all-in as he enters his third season at the helm. The Mets project to open with an MLB record $336 million payroll, more than $68 million higher than the No. 2 Yankees. That historic payroll will cost the Mets about $100 million in competitive balance tax penalties. New York committed $40 million in average annual value to re-sign Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Diaz and $81 million in AAV for free agent starters Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana and reliever David Robertson. The Mets’ division rivals in Philadelphia (third) and Atlanta (eighth) counteract the Marlins (22nd) and Nationals (23rd) in terms of projected payroll.
—The Marlins finished last in the NL in runs scored last season and aimed to address the club’s offense with a new top of the order. Miami traded veteran starter Pablo Lopez to the Twins to acquire AL batting champ Luis Arraez and also signed free agent Jean Segura. The moves help address Miami’s poor .294 on-base percentage last season. The Marlins are also banking on rebounds from Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler in the middle of the order as well as a full season from Jazz Chisholm and sustained production from September standout Bryan De La Cruz.
Top 10 Prospects
By Top 100 Prospects ranking
5. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies
7. Eury Perez, RHP, Marlins
9. Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets
11. James Wood, OF, Nationals
16. Kodai Senga, RHP, Mets
33. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets
40. Mick Abel, RHP, Phillies
50. Kevin Parada, C, Mets
57. Robert Hassell III, OF, Nationals
58. Elijah Green, OF, Nationals
BRAVES
Overall BA Grade: 80
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. 70
1B Matt Olson 65
3B Austin Riley 70
C Sean Murphy 60
CF Michael Harris II 60
2B Ozzie Albies 50
DH Marcell Ozuna 45
LF Eddie Rosario 45
SS Vaughn Grissom 45
ON DECK: After graduating Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom and trading Justyn-Henry Malloy, the Braves’ farm is dry.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
LH Max Fried 70
RH Kyle Wright 60
RH Spencer Strider 65
RH Charlie Morton 55
LH Jared Shuster 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Raisel Iglesias 50
RP A.J. Minter 50
RP Joe Jimenez 45
WARMING UP: The Braves’ rotation depth is robust, with Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder, Huascar Ynoa and Dylan Dodd representing quality options.
CRYSTAL BALL
With help from new battery-mate Sean Murphy, Max Fried will take yet another jump and win the National League ERA title.
METS
Overall BA Grade: 70
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
CF Brandon Nimmo 60
RF Starling Marte 60
SS Francisco Lindor 70
1B Pete Alonso 65
2B Jeff McNeil 60
DH Daniel Vogelbach 45
LF Mark Canha 45
3B Eduardo Escobar 45
C Omar Narvaez 45
ON DECK: Top prospects Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty will add youth, energy and upside to a veteran lineup when called upon.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Justin Verlander 75
RH Max Scherzer 70
RH Kodai Senga 55
RH Carlos Carrasco 50
LH Jose Quintana 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Edwin Diaz 60
RP David Robertson 50
RP Adam Ottavino 45
WARMING UP: David Peterson or Tylor Megill will fill in for the injured Jose Quintana to start, but there are precious few depth options.
CRYSTAL BALL
Justin Verlander will seamlessly replace Jacob deGrom atop the Mets’ rotation and contend for a fourth Cy Young Award at age 40.
PHILLIES
Overall BA Grade: 60
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
SS Trea Turner 75
DH Kyle Schwarber 60
C J.T. Realmuto 70
RF Nick Castellanos 55
1B Darick Hall 45
3B Alec Bohm 50
2B Bryson Stott 45
CF Brandon Marsh 45
LF Jake Cave 40
ON DECK: Bryce Harper had Tommy John surgery last fall and is scheduled to return in the second half. He will begin his season as a DH.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Aaron Nola 70
RH Zack Wheeler 70
RH Taijuan Walker 50
LH Ranger Suarez 50
LH Bailey Falter 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Seranthony Dominguez 55
RP Jose Alvarado 50
RP Craig Kimbrel 45
WARMING UP: Andrew Painter looked like a revelation early in camp before his elbow injury. If he mends in time for 2023, he has huge upside.
CRYSTAL BALL
Seranthony Dominguez will become the Phillies’ undisputed closer by midseason and finish the year with 30-plus saves.
MARLINS
Overall BA Grade: 40
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
2B Luis Arraez 55
CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. 60
DH Jorge Soler 45
1B Garrett Cooper 50
RF Avisail Garcia 45
3B Jean Segura 50
SS Joey Wendle 45
LF Bryan De La Cruz 45
C Jacob Stallings 40
ON DECK: The Marlins have a host of unproven youngsters at Triple-A, including Xavier Edwards, Jordan Groshans and Peyton Burdick.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Sandy Alcantara 70
LH Jesus Luzardo 55
RH Johnny Cueto 50
LH Trevor Rogers 50
RH Edward Cabrera 50
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Dylan Floro 45
RP Matt Barnes 45
RP Tanner Scott 40
WARMING UP: Eury Perez has electric upside and the 20-year-old could see big league time if he dominates Triple-A hitters.
CRYSTAL BALL
Bryan De La Cruz will ride his September hot streak into 2023 and establish himself as a well-rounded outfielder with 20-homer power.
NATIONALS
Overall BA Grade: 20
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
RF Lane Thomas 45
LF Corey Dickerson 45
DH Joey Meneses 45
3B Jeimer Candelario 45
C Keibert Ruiz 50
1B Dominic Smith 45
2B Luis Garcia 45
SS CJ Abrams 50
CF Victor Robles 40
ON DECK: Most of Washington’s top prospects are a few years off, giving players like Carter Kieboom and Jeter Downs runway to get established.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Josiah Gray 45
LH Patrick Corbin 40
LH MacKenzie Gore 45
RH Trevor Williams 45
RH Chad Kuhl 40
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Kyle Finnegan 45
RP Hunter Harvey 40
RP Carl Edwards Jr. 40
WARMING UP: The Nationals are in for a long season, which affords long leashes to young starters such as Gray and Gore.
CRYSTAL BALL
Dominic Smith will blossom with consistent, everyday playing time at his natural first base position and hit .260 with 20-plus home runs.
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