2023 MLB Season Preview: National League Central Division Preview

Image credit: Paul Goldschmidt (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images)

Team to Beat

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals return the core of their 93-win division-champions, with a few notable exceptions. MVP first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado return to anchor the lineup. Free agent Willson Contreras replaces Yadier Molina behind the plate. A host of young players could step forward, including Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman and Juan Yepez, while 21-year-old rookie sensation Jordan Walker could impact the lineup. The Cardinals’ key question remains pitching. St. Louis’ starters had the lowest strikeout rate among postseason rotations last year. A full season from Jordan Montgomery will help, as would healthy, effective seasons from Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz.

Top Player

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals

Fans can set a metronome to Arenado’s offensive and defensive production. He has been a regular third baseman for 10 seasons and has won 10 Gold Gloves. Since his 2013 debut, Arenado leads all hitters with seven 100-RBI seasons and is tied for the lead with seven 30-homer seasons. The 32-year-old is coming off a third-place finish in National League MVP balloting—his sixth top 10 finish—and is on the short list of favorites to win the award this season. 

Top Pitcher

Corbin Burnes, RHP, Brewers

Throwing baseball’s best cutter among starting pitchers, Burnes leads all qualified pitchers since 2020 with 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and strikeout rate of 33.4%. He led the National League in strikeouts last season in an encore of his 2021 Cy Young Award performance. Simply put, Burnes is baseball’s preeminent pitcher, and he makes the Brewers dangerous in a short series, if Milwaukee hits enough to claim a postseason berth. That task becomes more challenging this season, with MLB’s more balanced schedule equaling 24 fewer matchups against NL Central opponents. With Burnes leading the way, the Brewers’ deep pitching staff may be up to the task.

Top Rookie

Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals

No 20-year-old batted more often in the upper minors last season than Walker, a 2020 first-round pick who has blazed a trail through the minor leagues and will be MLB ready this season, possibly on Opening Day. Walker has game-changing power and showed advanced barrel control in spring training that makes him a Rookie of the Year favorite. The natural third baseman has taken all of his defensive reps in the outfield corners since late last season at  Double-A. The future is now for Walker.

Notable storylines

—The Brewers took steps to improve their lineup in the offseason. Acquiring 25-year-old catcher William Contreras in the three-team deal that sent Sean Murphy to the Braves and prospects to the Athletics was a coup for Milwaukee. Even if Contreras can’t hack it as an everyday catcher, his impact bat fits in the middle of the order at DH. The Brewers also added rebound candidate Jesse Winker, who should find his new park’s dimensions much cozier than Seattle. The Brewers’ other lineup adjustments are more subtle and more homegrown. Milwaukee hit for power last season but ranked just seventh in the NL in on-base percentage. By incorporating rookies Brice Turang at second base and Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick in the outfield, the Brewers can take steps toward building a more balanced, athletic and speedy lineup. 

—The Cubs somewhat quietly spent more than $300 million on free agents in the offseason, fifth -most of any club. Most of that money—$177 million—went to shortstop Dansby Swanson, but Chicago also added righthander Jameson Taillon on a four-year deal and made shorter pacts with Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Drew Smyly and other veterans. All the new faces make the Cubs a high-variance team for 2023. This will be a big season for another high-variance element: Cubs pitching development. Having invested many draft picks in amateur pitchers with little to show for it, the Cubs have taken a different approach in recent seasons by trading for other organization’s mature pitching prospects. Chicago added Caleb Kilian from the Giants in 2021 and then Hayden Wesneski from the Yankees and Ben Brown from the Phillies last season. All three should see a healthy number of innings this season. 

—While the Pirates project for a fifth straight losing season, the organization is beginning to form a big league core that points to a brighter future. Shortstop Oneil Cruz joins left fielder Bryan Reynolds and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes this season as young, promising Pirates regulars. Righthander Roansy Contreras and closer David Bednar are ready for expanded roles. The Pirates are unusually deep in proximity pitching (Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester and Mike Burrows) and catching (Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis) prospects, and a number of them will surface in MLB this season to get acclimated and see how they mesh with the rest of the young core. 

Top 10 Prospects
By Top 100 Prospects ranking

3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
4. Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
8. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
23. Endy Rodriguez, C, Pirates
25. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs
34. Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers
47. Tink Hence, RHP, Cardinals
48. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals
49. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pirates
63. Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds

CARDINALS

Overall BA Grade: 60

LINEUP

Pos Player BA Grade

SS Tommy Edman 50
CF Tyler O’Neill 55
1B Paul Goldschmidt 70
3B Nolan Arenado 70
C Willson Contreras 60
RF Lars Nootbaar 50
LF Jordan Walker 50
DH Nolan Gorman 45
2B Brendan Donovan 45

ON DECK: Jordan Walker mashed at Double-A last season as a 20-year-old and made the Opening Day roster with a standout showing in spring training.

ROTATION

Pos Player BA Grade

RH Adam Wainwright 50
RH Miles Mikolas 55
LH Jordan Montgomery 55
RH Jack Flaherty 50
LH Steven Matz 50

TOP RELIEVERS

Pos Player BA Grade

CL Ryan Helsley 55
RP Giovanny Gallegos 50
RP Andre Pallante 45

WARMING UP: Lefthander Matthew Liberatore made his MLB debut last year, receiving five different callups, and could step into a larger role.

CRYSTAL BALL 

Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado will follow in teammate Paul Goldschmidt’s footsteps and win the National League MVP award.

---

BREWERS

Overall BA Grade: 55

LINEUP

Pos Player BA Grade

LF Christian Yelich 50
SS Willy Adames 55
1B Rowdy Tellez 45
C William Contreras 55
DH Jesse Winker 50
3B Luis Urias 50
CF Garrett Mitchell 45
RF Brian Anderson 45
2B Brice Turang 45

ON DECK: Sal Frelick had one of the highest batting averages and lowest strikeout rates in the minors. Now he gets his shot to spark the Brewers.

ROTATION

Pos Player BA Grade

RH Corbin Burnes 70
RH Brandon Woodruff 65
RH Freddy Peralta 55
LH Eric Lauer 50
LH Wade Miley 45

TOP RELIEVERS

Pos Player BA Grade

CL Devin Williams 55
RP Matt Bush 50
RP Peter Strzelecki 45

WARMING UP: Armed with a bat-missing slider grip he picked up last year, Robert Gasser zoomed to Triple-A and into the Brewers’ plans.

CRYSTAL BALL 

A trio of first-round picks—Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick—will inject life into the
Brewers’ flagging offense. 

---

CUBS

Overall BA Grade: 45

LINEUP

Pos Player BA Grade

2B Nico Hoerner 50
SS Dansby Swanson 55
LF Ian Happ 50
RF Seiya Suzuki 50
DH Trey Mancini 50
1B Eric Hosmer 45
3B Patrick Wisdom 45
CF Cody Bellinger 45
C Tucker Barnhart 45

ON DECK: First baseman Matt Mervis blasted 36 home runs in the minors and six more in the AFL to set the stage for his 2023 MLB debut.

ROTATION

Pos Player BA Grade

RH Marcus Stroman 55
RH Jameson Taillon 50
LH Justin Steele 45
LH Drew Smyly 45
RH Hayden Wesneski 45

TOP RELIEVERS

Pos Player BA Grade

CL Brandon Hughes 45
RP Michael Fulmer 45
RP Brad Boxberger 45

WARMING UP: Hayden Wesneski looked sharp as a 2022 debut after begin acquired from the Yankees and is ready for a larger role after winning the No. 5 starter job in spring training.

CRYSTAL BALL 

Nico Hoerner will hit .300 and win a Gold Glove at second base to establish himself as one of the National League’s best young infielders.

---

 

REDS

Overall BA Grade: 30

LINEUP

Pos Player BA Grade

RF Jake Fraley 45
2B Jonathan India 50
DH Joey Votto 55
C Tyler Stephenson 55
1B Wil Myers 50
LF TJ Friedl 45
3B Spencer Steer 45
SS Kevin Newman 45
CF Nick Senzel 45

ON DECK: Shortstop Elly De La Cruz showed epic power and speed last season. If that pace continues at Triple-A, he will be up this summer. 

ROTATION

Pos Player BA Grade

RH Hunter Greene 55
LH Nick Lodolo 55
RH Graham Ashcraft 50
RH Luke Weaver 45
RH Luis Cessa 40

TOP RELIEVERS

Pos Player BA Grade

CL Alexis Diaz 55
RP Lucas Sims 45
RP Reiver Sanmartin 40

WARMING UP: Following the 2022 debuts of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft, the Reds could see lefty Brandon Williamson debut in 2023.

CRYSTAL BALL

Lefthander Nick Lodolo will emerge as the Reds’ best starter over Hunter Greene and make his first National League all-star team.

---

PIRATES

Overall BA Grade: 30

LINEUP

Pos Player BA Grade

SS Oneil Cruz 50
LF Bryan Reynolds 60
RF Andrew McCutchen 50
DH Carlos Santana 45
1B Ji-Man Choi 45
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes 45
CF Jack Suwinski 45
2B Rodolfo Castro 40
C Austin Hedges 40

ON DECK: Catcher Endy Rodriguez was one of the hottest minor league hitters late last season. The athletic switch-hitter will be up before long. 

ROTATION

Pos Player BA Grade

RH Mitch Keller 50
RH Roansy Contreras 50
LH Rich Hill 50
RH JT Brubaker 45
RH Vince Velasquez 40

TOP RELIEVERS

Pos Player BA Grade

CL David Bednar 55
RP Wil Crowe 45
RP Duane Underwood Jr. 45

WARMING UP: Luis Ortiz looked sharp during his MLB callup last September, and Quinn Priester and Mike Burrows also have Triple-A time.

CRYSTAL BALL

Roansy Contreras will blossom in his second major league season and solidify himself as the Pirates’ best starting pitcher.