2023 MLB Season Preview: American League East Division Preview
Image credit: Aaron Judge (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Team to Beat
New York Yankees
The Yankees committed more salary in free agency than any club—$574 million—to retain American League MVP Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo and add Carlos Rodon. Rodon begins the season on the injured list with a strained elbow, while a shoulder injury will keep Frankie Montas sidelined indefinitely, but the Yankees have the pitching depth to compensate for those losses. Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt assume rotation spots along with Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes. On offense, the Yankees need new faces to support Judge, Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton. Second-year Oswaldo Cabrera takes an outfield spot, while rookie shortstop Oswald Peraza is a strong defender who hit well as a September callup. Top prospect Anthony Volpe is the wild card. If he hits, he could add a spark the Yankees’ offense needs.
Top Player
Aaron Judge, RF, Yankees
At times during the second half last season, Judge seemed to will the Yankees to the division title. He hit .349/.502/.785 after the All-Star Game, hitting 29 home runs in 68 games to establish the American League record with 62 homers. Judge claimed all but two first-place votes for AL MVP, which was a testament to his historic season because he played in the same league as all-world Shohei Ohtani. Judge’s 211 OPS+ is seventh-highest since 1961, trailing only four Barry Bonds seasons, one from Mark McGwire and one from Frank Thomas.
Top Pitcher
Gerrit Cole, RHP, Yankees
After signing his megadeal with the Yankees following the 2019 season, Cole has been remarkably durable and effective. He led the AL with 33 starts and 257 strikeouts last season, though he also allowed a league-high 33 home runs. Despite that hiccup, Cole leads all pitchers with 594 strikeouts since joining the Yankees, and just three pitchers have thrown more than his 455 innings.
Top Rookie
Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles
The top prospect in baseball dominated Double-A and Triple-A last season and made a splashy big league debut following his late-August callup. All the pieces are in pace for Henderson to excel as a 21-year-old rookie. He hits the ball hard, he runs well and his double-plus arm and athleticism will make him a standout defender. Expect a high on-base percentage, 20-homer power and possibly 20-plus stolen bases from Henderson, who is the favorite to win American League Rookie of the Year.
Notable storylines
—The Orioles played at an 89-win pace after calling up Adley Rutschman last May 21 and missed a wild card by just three games. Baltimore returns the same young core of players from last year, including Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle and Kyle Bradish. What the Orioles didn’t do was meaningfully address a rotation that finished 10th in the AL in ERA last season. They signed Kyle Gibson and traded for the Athletics’ Cole Irvin, both of whom would line up as No. 4’s in a postseason rotation. Baltimore could benefit from a step forward from Bradish and receive frontline production from rookie Grayson Rodriguez, one of the top overall pitching prospects.
—Blue Jays righthanded batters took more plate appearances against righthanded pitchers than any team last season, nearly 600 more than the No. 2 Marlins. Toronto batters excelled in those right-on-right matchups with a .783 OPS that tied the Dodgers for best in baseball. Still, the Blue Jays’ front office made an effort to add more lefthanded presence to make the club more difficult to game-plan. Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier to play center field—and push George Springer to right field after his scary postseason collision—and Brandon Belt to DH. It traded top prospect Gabriel Moreno and left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the D-backs for Daulton Varsho, who will play left field every day. Varsho replaces righthanded slugger Teoscar Hernandez, who was traded to the Mariners for setup reliever Erik Swanson.
—The Red Sox had an odd offseason in which they let homegrown shortstop Xander Bogaerts depart to the Padres for 11 years and $280 million. Instead, they extended homegrown third baseman Rafael Devers for 11 years and $331 million to anchor the next Red Sox playoff team. That might not be far off if Boston’s prospect crop delivers. Rookie first baseman Triston Casas will be the everyday starter this season; shortstop Marcelo Mayer could be up later in 2024, and potential five-tool center fielder Miguel Bleis could arrive later in 2025. Boston bucked convention to sign 29-year-old Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida. Most rival teams questioned the size of the commitment: five years and $90 million, plus a $15 million posting fee. Yoshida has incredible bat-to-ball skill and a patient approach. He and Casas will give the Red Sox a chance to finish near the top of the AL in on-base percentage.
Top 10 Prospects
By Top 100 Prospects ranking
1. Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles
6. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles
10. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox
14. Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees
15. Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles
29. Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox
31. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays
32. Shane Baz, RHP, Rays
36. Curtis Mead, 2B, Rays
41. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
YANKEES
Overall BA Grade: 70
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
2B Gleyber Torres 50
RF Aaron Judge 80
1B Anthony Rizzo 55
DH Giancarlo Stanton 55
3B Josh Donaldson 45
CF Harrison Bader 50
LF Aaron Hicks 45
C Jose Trevino 45
SS Anthony Volpe 45
ON DECK: Anthony Volpe is one of the top prospects in baseball and swung the bat well this spring. He will add electricity to the lineup.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Gerrit Cole 75
LH Carlos Rodon 65
RH Luis Severino 55
LH Nestor Cortes 55
RH Domingo German 50
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Clay Holmes 55
RP Jonathan Loaisiga 50
RP Michael King 50
WARMING UP: Clarke Schmidt could take a next step as he covers for Rodon. Luis Gil returns from Tommy John surgery in the second half.
CRYSTAL BALL
Gerrit Cole will dominate with fewer games against AL East foes in the new, balanced schedule and win his first Cy Young Award.
BLUE JAYS
Overall BA Grade: 60
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
RF George Springer 60
SS Bo Bichette 60
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 70
C Alejandro Kirk 55
LF Daulton Varsho 55
3B Matt Chapman 50
DH Brandon Belt 45
2B Whit Merrifield 45
CF Kevin Kiermaier 45
ON DECK: Addison Barger showed big power in the minors. This spring he played third base, shortstop and right field ahead of his MLB debut.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Alek Manoah 65
RH Kevin Gausman 60
RH Jose Berrios 55
RH Chris Bassitt 55
LH Yusei Kikuchi 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Jordan Romano 55
RP Erik Swanson 50
RP Yimi Garcia 45
WARMING UP: Young power pitchers Ricky Tiedemann and Yosver Zulueta could impact games for Toronto in a variety of roles.
CRYSTAL BALL
Bo Bichette will lead the American League in hits for the third straight year and finish top-five in American Leauge MVP voting.
RAYS
Overall BA Grade: 55
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
1B Yandy Diaz 50
SS Wander Franco 60
LF Randy Arozarena 60
2B Brandon Lowe 55
DH Harold Ramirez 45
RF Manuel Margot 45
3B Isaac Paredes 45
C Christian Bethancourt 40
CF Jose Siri 40
ON DECK: They may be position-agnostic, but Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda have reached Triple-A and can really hit.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Tyler Glasnow 65
LH Shane McClanahan 60
RH Drew Rasmussen 55
RH Zach Eflin 50
LH Jeffrey Springs 50
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Pete Fairbanks 55
RH Jason Adam 55
LH Jalen Beeks 45
WARMING UP: The power-armed Luis Patiño is still just 23 and appears to be the fill-in for Tyler Glasnow as he recovers form his strained oblique.
CRYSTAL BALL
Even with a healthy season from Wander Franco, the Rays will struggle to score and miss the playoffs for the first time in five seasons.
ORIOLES
Overall BA Grade: 50
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
CF Cedric Mullins 50
C Adley Rutschman 65
RF Anthony Santander 50
1B Ryan Mountcastle 50
3B Gunnar Henderson 55
LF Austin Hays 45
DH Kyle Stowers 45
2B Adam Frazier 45
SS Jorge Mateo 40
ON DECK: Connor Norby, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Colton Cowser led off the Triple-A lineup last summer. All are nearly MLB ready.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
RH Kyle Gibson 45
LH Cole Irvin 45
RH Kyle Bradish 45
RH Dean Kremer 45
RH Tyler Wells 45
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Felix Bautista 55
RP Cionel Perez 50
RP Bryan Baker 45
WARMING UP: Righthander Grayson Rodriguez should be up soon after being demoted to the minors out of camp and has the stuff to become an impact starter quickly. Lefthander DL Hall’s explosive stuff could fit in the late innings, while trade pickup Cade Povich could take major strides.
CRYSTAL BALL
Ryan Mountcastle, not Adley Rutschman or Anthony Santander, will lead the Orioles in home runs and be their top offensive threat.
RED SOX
Overall BA Grade: 40
LINEUP
Pos Player BA Grade
RF Alex Verdugo 50
3B Rafael Devers 65
DH Justin Turner 50
LF Masataka Yoshida 50
CF Adam Duvall 45
1B Triston Casas 50
SS Enrique Hernandez 45
C Reese McGuire 40
2B Christian Arroyo 40
ON DECK: Boston’s next wave may be a few seasons away. In the meantime, Jarren Duran will try to establish himself with his new swing.
ROTATION
Pos Player BA Grade
LH Chris Sale 55
RH Corey Kluber 50
RH Nick Pivetta 45
RH Tanner Houck 45
RH Kutter Crawford 40
TOP RELIEVERS
Pos Player BA Grade
CL Kenley Jansen 55
RP Chris Martin 50
RP John Schreiber 50
WARMING UP: Brayan Bello rounded into form late last season but is sidelined early with a forearm injury. He has midrotation upside if healthy.
CRYSTAL BALL
The Red Sox’s defense will be the worst in the major leagues, leading to a long year for the pitching staff and another sub-.500 finish.
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