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'Never Too Early' Projected 2021 College Top 25

The college baseball season, even if it had been allowed to unfold normally and wasn’t halted by the coronavirus pandemic, would now be over. The College World Series was slated to conclude June 23 or 24 and by now the dogpile would be just a memory as the spring turned to summer.

So, on what should have been the first full week of the offseason, we’re updating the Never Too Early Top 25. We debuted this ranking last month, once the framework for the 2021 season had been decided – every player getting an extra year of eligibility and a five-round MLB draft. Now, with the draft complete and a slew of nondrafted free agents signed, we can revisit the Top 25 with the latest roster movement.

While we do now have more solid information about how rosters are coming together, we still had to make some assumptions to put this ranking together. Chiefly, we are assuming every player who was drafted will sign. That’s true of almost every player selected in the first five rounds in a normal year and should be the case this year as well, because correctly assessing the signability of players in a five-round draft is even more important. There will likely still be some player movement that affects some teams in the rankings – either from unexpected nondrafted free agent signings or in the transfer market – but right now we can only assess the moves that have been made so far.

Using those basic parameters, Florida tops the ranking, as it did in its first iteration. The Gators were No. 1 at the end of the abbreviated 2020 season and did not lose a player to the draft, as righthanders Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich both unexpectedly will return to Gainesville to again front the rotation. Beyond that 1-2 punch, the Gators have plenty of returning talent, including center fielder Jud Fabian and lefthander Hunter Barco, who are both potential top-10 picks in the 2021 and 2022 drafts, respectively. To top it off, another standout recruiting class is on the way, giving Florida a deep, talented roster worthy of a national championship favorite.

UC Santa Barbara is the lone new team in the rankings, displacing Central Florida. UCSB made it through the draft unscathed and should have one of the best rotations on the West Coast to go with a veteran lineup. UCF, meanwhile, now has a few key pitchers to replace from a team that surged into the rankings this spring.

There are still a lot of unknowns all around, but reasonable projections can be made for the 2021 season. This is our latest attempt. We will continue to update these rankings during the offseason months to come to reflect the latest developments.

25 Matches
Expand Collapse All Updated on: 6/29/2020
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    Key Departures: C Brady Smith

    Projected Key Returners: RHP Tommy Mace, RHP Jack Leftwich, OF Jacob Young, OF Jud Fabian, LHP/1B Hunter Barco, RHP Ben Specht, RHP Christian Scott, SS Josh Rivera

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): SS Colby Halter (105), LHP Timmy Manning (135), SS Sterlin Thompson (196), RHP Franco Aleman (315), SS Jordan Carrion (394), C Mac Guscette (457)

    The draft and its aftermath went about as well as it could have gone for Florida, as neither Tommy Mace nor Jack Leftwich were selected, and the two recruits who were taken, outfielder Zac Veen and third baseman Coby Mayo, were top-100 prospects who were never truly expected to make it to campus. As a cherry on top, catcher Brady Smith is also currently the only Florida player to sign as a free agent.

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    Texas Tech

    Big 12

    Key Departures: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Bryce Bonnin, RHP John McMillon, 2B Brian Klein

    Projected Key Returners: RHP Micah Dallas, LHP Mason Montgomery, RHP Hunter Dobbins, LHP Jakob Brustoski, C Cole Stilwell, INF Nate Rombach, SS Cal Conley, OF Dylan Neuse

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Brandon Birdsell (145), RHP Levi Wells (211), RHP Chase Hampton (271), RHP Brendan Girton (382)

    The draft went as expected for Texas Tech, with righthanders Clayton Beeter and Bryce Bonnin getting selected. Righthander John McMillon, who has long captured the imagination of evaluators with his strong build and near-100 mph fastball, wasn’t a huge surprise as a free agent signing, but second baseman Brian Klein was to a somewhat greater degree. Still, the Red Raiders bring back more than enough talent in the lineup and on the mound to be among the nation’s elite in 2021.

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    Key Departures: OF Garrett Mitchell, RHP Holden Powell

    Projected Key Returners: SS Matt McLain, 1B J.T. Schwarz, C Noah Cardenas, RHP Zach Pettway, RHP Kyle Mora, RHP Jesse Bergin, RHP Nick Nastrini

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Max Rajcic (176), OF Jonathan Vaughns (427), INF Kyle Karros

    UCLA got hit fairly hard by the draft, but it’s important to note that most of that came on the recruiting side of things, as the Bruins had their top four recruits selected. When it comes to the current roster, however, outfielder Garrett Mitchell and righthander Holden Powell were taken, but those were both expected. UCLA will still return an embarrassment of riches on the mound, plus shortstop Matt McLain, one of the most dynamic players in college baseball, among others.

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    Key Departures: SS Anthony Servideo, 3B Tyler Keenan

    Projected Key Returners: LHP Doug Nikhazy, RHP Gunnar Hoglund, RHP Derek Diamond, INF Peyton Chatagnier, OF Hayden Leatherwood, C Hayden Dunhurst, 1B Cael Baker, RHP Taylor Broadway, RHP Austin Miller

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): C Calvin Harris (287), SS Jacob Gonzalez (299), SS TJ McCants (361), 1B/RHP Kemp Alderman (374)

    The left side of the infield will need to be replaced with the departures of shortstop Anthony Servideo and third baseman Tyler Keenan, but that was expected going into the draft. There should still be plenty of offense to go around, and a rotation of lefthander Doug Nikhazy and righthanders Gunnar Hoglund and Derek Diamond projects to be one of the best in the SEC.

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    Key Departures: None

    Projected Key Returners: LHP Andrew Abbott, OF Chris Newell, 3B Zack Gelof, SS Nic Kent, 2B Max Cotier, RHP Griff McGarry, RHP Mike Vasil, LHP Nate Savino, RHP Stephen Schoch, C Logan Michaels

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): OF Alex Greene (493), C Kyle Teel, SS Jake Gelof, LHP Jake Berry

    If you liked what Virginia was projected to bring to the table in 2021 before the draft, you should like it even more now, as its one primary draft risk, lefthander Andrew Abbott, wasn’t selected. Perhaps there is some disappointment that righthander Nick Bitsko was drafted and signed out of the recruiting class, but getting him to campus was probably a longshot. The Cavaliers will be loaded going into next season.

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    LSU Primary 03

    Louisiana State


    Key Departures: OF Daniel Cabrera, RHP Cole Henry, C Saul Garza, 3B Zack Mathis, SS Hal Hughes, RHP Eric Walker

    Projected Key Returners: RHP Jaden Hill, RHP Landon Marceaux, RHP A.J. Labas, RHP Devin Fontenot, OF Giovanni DiGiacomo, 1B Cade Beloso, INF Gavin Dugas, RHP Matthew Beck

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Ty Floyd (69), SS Jordan Thompson (215), RHP Blake Money (359), OF Brody Drost (367), RHP Theo Milas (402), OF Dylan Crews

    From a draft perspective, things went according to script for LSU, as outfielder Daniel Cabrera and righthander Cole Henry were selected. However, even with those departures, plus a handful more signing as free agents or transferring, the Tigers should compete at the top of the SEC, thanks in large part to a pitching staff led by righthanders Jaden Hill, Landon Marceaux and A.J. Labas.

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    Key Departures: LHP Reid Detmers, RHP Bobby Miller, SS Justin Lavey, C/OF Zach Britton, OF Danny Oriente

    Projected Key Returners: LHP Michael Kirian, OF Levi Usher, OF Luke Brown, 3B Alex Binelas, C Henry Davis, RHP Michael Prosecky, RHP Jack Perkins, RHP Luke Smith

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): SS Christian Knapczyk (276), RHP Ben Wiegman (415), RHP Alex Galvan (496)

    Lefthander Reid Detmers and righthander Bobby Miller were expected departures, as was Justin Lavey signing as a free agent, but going into the draft, everything else was up in the air for Louisville. In the end, it was a mixed bag. Zach Britton was drafted and Danny Oriente signed after the draft, but lefthander Michael Kirian made it through the draft and will return, as will righthander Luke Smith, who will bring some much-needed experience to a rebuilt rotation. Louisville offers plenty of offensive potential to back that staff.

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    Key Departures: 3B Austin Martin, LHP Jake Eder, RHP Mason Hickman, RHP Tyler Brown, C Ty Duvall, 2B Harrison Ray

    Projected Key Returners: RHP Kumar Rocker, RHP Jack Leiter, RHP Ethan Smith, RHP Sam Hliboki, OF Cooper Davis, SS Carter Young, 1B/LHP Spencer Jones, LHP Hugh Fisher

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): OF Enrique Bradfield (66), RHP Patrick Reilly (103), C Jack Bulger (183), OF/RHP Grayson Moore (250), RHP Gage Bradley (362), SS Jack O’Dowd (370), 1B Gavin Casas (381), LHP Nelson Berkwich (387)

    As is always the case, Vanderbilt had a number of talented players drafted, but as is also always the case, they have plenty returning and plenty more on the way in. Righthanders Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter have the potential to be the best one-two punch in college baseball, but the key to the Commodores’ success will be bringing along more impact players in the lineup.

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    Florida State


    Key Departures: RHP C.J. Van Eyk, LHP Shane Drohan, LHP Antonio Velez

    Projected Key Returners: RHP Conor Grady, OF Reese Albert, OF Robby Martin, C Matheu Nelson, SS Nander De Sedas, OF Elijah Cabell

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Carson Montgomery (40), OF AJ Shaver (133), RHP Jackson Nezuh (378), LHP Andrew Armstrong, SS Richie Morales

    Losing three key arms in righthander C.J. Van Eyk and lefthanders Shane Drohan and Antonio Velez isn’t ideal, but there’s plenty of good news to go around for FSU. For one, every key piece from the lineup will return, including outfielder Elijah Cabell, who was something of a draft risk. Beyond that, the Seminoles will also bring to campus righthander Carson Montgomery, the highest-ranked recruit in the BA 500 to make it to college baseball for the 2021 season.

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    Key Departures: OF Heston Kjerstad, SS Casey Martin

    Projected Key Returners: C Casey Opitz, RHP Connor Noland, RHP Caleb Bolden, OF Christian Franklin, 2B Robert Moore, DH Matt Goodheart, LHP Patrick Wicklander

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Nate Wohlgemuth (109), 3B Cayden Wallace (139), LHP Nick Griffin (189), RHP Jaxon Wiggins (262), SS Michael Brooks (350), LHP/OF Lael Lockhart

    Replacing two all-time great sluggers in program history in outfielder Heston Kjerstad and shortstop Casey Martin is no easy task, but Arkansas has the talent to continue on without them. The return of catcher Casey Opitz will help defensively and on the mound. The Razorbacks always hit, and that should again be the case, led by second baseman Robert Moore, who was already making a big impact as a 17-year-old freshman. Arkansas has also played the transfer market well, headlined by the addition of two-way player Lael Lockhart from Houston.

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    Big 12

    Key Departures: RHP Bryce Elder, OF Duke Ellis

    Projected Key Returners: 1B Zach Zubia, OF Austin Todd, OF Eric Kennedy, SS Trey Faltine, C D.J. Petrinsky, LHP Pete Hansen, RHP Ty Madden, RHP Coy Cobb

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): 3B/RHP Tanner Witt (92), RHP Travis Sthele (171), RHP Labarron Johnson (319), SS Aaron Nixon (403), LHP Lucas Gordon (411)

    A recruiting class that was ranked No. 1 going into the draft took some big hits, but that group, led by potential two-way contributor Tanner Witt, should still provide an already-talented Texas team another quick infusion of talent. A pitching staff led by lefthander Pete Hansen and righthanders Ty Madden and Coy Cobb is short on track record but extremely long on potential, and that’s what makes the Longhorns an intriguing team going into 2021.

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    Key Departures: C Austin Wells, C/2B Matthew Dyer

    Projected Key Returners: OF Ryan Holgate, OF Donta Williams, OF Mac Bingham, LHP Garrett Irvin, RHP Quinn Flanagan, RHP Vince Vannelle

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): OF Chase Davis (55), RHP TJ Nichols (111), C Daniel Susac (118), 3B Jacob Berry (219), RHP Josh Swales (241), RHP Chase Silseth (305), RHP Matt Olsen (471)

    Having Austin Wells depart was no surprise, whereas having Matthew Dyer drafted was more of one, but either way, Arizona’s offense will be extremely dangerous in 2021. The arrival of Daniel Susac should also help the Wildcats recover from having two catchers drafted. Their experienced pitching staff should also be improved and helped by the addition of four recruits ranked inside the BA 500.

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    Key Departures: RHP Bryce Jarvis, RHP Thomas Girard, 1B/RHP Matt Mervis, 3B Erikson Nichols

    Projected Key Returners: C Michael Rothenberg, OF Joey Loperfido, SS Ethan Murray, RHP Cooper Stinson, RHP Jack Carey

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Nick Conte, RHP Collin Bosley-Smith, RHP Cade Udell, OF Peter Matt

    The biggest question for Duke was always going to be what it would do at the front of the rotation with the departure of righthander Bryce Jarvis. That is still the case, even as there is optimism that righthander Cooper Stinson is next in line. In the lineup, with the return of catcher Michael Rothenberg, outfielder Joey Loperfido and shortstop Ethan Murray, plenty of experience and athleticism will be returning.

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    New Mississippi State Logo

    Mississippi State


    Key Departures: RHP JT Ginn, SS Jordan Westburg, 2B Justin Foscue

    Projected Key Returners: OF/1B Tanner Allen, INF Josh Hatcher, OF Rowdey Jordan, LHP Christian MacLeod, RHP Eric Cerantola, RHP Will Bednar

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Jackson Fristoe (193), 3B Kellum Clark (283), RHP Mikey Tepper (292), RHP Cade Smith (456)

    It’s status quo for Mississippi State coming out of the draft, as all three primary draft risks on the roster were selected, and there were no surprise selections among those who suited up for MSU in 2020. Keys for 2021 include re-building a lineup around Tanner Allen and the continued development of a pitching staff that showed promise in a small sample size in 2020.

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    Georgia Tech


    Key Departures: OF Michael Guldberg, OF Baron Radcliff, RHP Jonathan Hughes

    Projected Key Returners: SS Luke Waddell, 1B Drew Compton, OF Stephen Reid, RHP Zach Maxwell, LHP Brant Hurter, RHP Cort Roedig, SS Austin Wilhite

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): C Kevin Parada (48), RHP Marquis Grissom Jr. (151), OF/C Jake Deleo (267), 3B Justyn-Henry Malloy

    In terms of holding recruiting classes together, few did better than Georgia Tech, which didn’t lose anyone, including catcher Kevin Parada, a top-50 prospect going into the draft. On the roster, the Yellow Jackets did lose a couple of high-upside outfielders in Michael Guldberg and Baron Radcliff, but on the other hand, they never expected to get back shortstop and team leader Luke Waddell. Lefthander Brant Hurter, who should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, will look to lead the pitching staff. Georgia Tech looks poised to compete at the top of the ACC in 2021.

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    Texas Christian

    Big 12

    Key Departures: RHP Caleb Sloan

    Projected Key Returners: 2B Gray Rodgers, SS Tommy Sacco, OF Porter Brown, RHP Riley Cornelio, RHP Johnny Ray, LHP Russell Smith, RHP Drew Hill, LHP Haylen Green, INF Conner Shepherd, C Zach Humphreys, RHP Charles King, RHP Marcelo Perez

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Cam Brown (131), RHP Storm Hierholzer (320), OF Elijah Nunez (350), RHP Braxton Pearson (358), 3B Luke Boyers (388)

    TCU was off to a solid start in 2020, and now it will be able to run it back in 2021 with largely the same roster plus five BA 500 prospects from the incoming recruiting class. A rotation of righthander Johnny Ray, lefthander Russell Smith and one of the younger pitchers on the roster, such as righthander Riley Cornelio, is the start of an outstanding pitching staff.

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    nc_state.jpg (1)

    North Carolina State


    Key Departures: C Patrick Bailey, LHP Nick Swiney

    Projected Key Returners: OF Tyler McDonough, C/OF Luca Tresh, 3B/OF Devonte Brown, SS Jose Torres, LHP David Harrison, RHP Sam Highfill, RHP Dalton Feeney, LHP Chris Villaman

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): SS Eddie Eisert (419), LHP John Miralia

    The departures of catcher Patrick Bailey and lefthander Nick Swiney are significant, but few teams are as consistent in the face of losing top players as North Carolina State. A lineup led by dynamic players like outfielder Tyler McDonough, versatile players Luca Tresh and Devonte Brown and shortstop Jose Torres has the potential to be superb. The return of experienced arms like lefthander David Harrison and righthander Dalton Feeney give the Wolfpack the pieces to mix and match on the mound, as they always do.

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    Big 12

    Key Departures: RHP Cade Cavalli, LHP Levi Prater, RHP Dane Acker, C Brady Lindsly, RHP Zack Matthews

    Projected Key Returners: OF Tanner Tredaway, 1B Tyler Hardman, 3B Peyton Graham, C Justin Mitchell, RHP Wyatt Olds, LHP Jake Bennett, RHP Ben Abram, SS Brandon Zaragoza, RHP Jason Ruffcorn

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): SS/RHP Cade Horton (65), OF Jace Bohrofen (141), OF Marquis Jackson, RHP Hunter Marshall

    The Sooners suffered heavy personnel losses, above and beyond what might have been expected. But with that said, despite having to completely rebuild the weekend rotation, the offense, led by outfielder Tanner Tredaway, first baseman Tyler Hardman and third baseman Peyton Graham, should be good enough to give the pitching staff time to take shape.

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    Big 10

    Key Departures: RHP Jeff Criswell, OF Jesse Franklin, OF Jordan Nwogu, SS Jack Blomgren, C Joe Donovan, 1B Matthew Schmidt

    Projected Key Returners: LHP Steven Hajjar, LHP Ben Dragani, RHP Blake Beers, RHP Isaiah Paige, C Jimmy Obertop, OF Clark Elliott, 3B Ted Burton

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): OF Tre Hondras, RHP Will Proctor, LHP Logan Wood

    Michigan got hit hard in the draft, particularly in the lineup, where it will lose five starters from a group that was still finding its footing in 2020. That means there might be more growing pains for that unit in 2021, but the good news is the pitching staff can help make up for that, led by lefthanders Steven Hajjar and Ben Dragani.

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    1024Px Long Beach State Athletics Logo.Svg

    Long Beach State

    Big West

    Key Departures: LHP Adam Seminaris, 1B/OF L.J Jones

    Projected Key Returners: LHP Alfredo Ruiz, RHP Luis Ramirez, RHP Devereaux Harrison, OF Connor Kokx

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Julian Aguiar (343), C Connor Burns (486), SS Sebastian Murillo, SS Rocco Peppi

    Beach went into the draft knowing that it could lose lefthander Adam Seminaris, and it did so, but it probably didn’t expect to lose L.J. Jones, one of the team’s best power bats in the abbreviated 2020 season. Consider this ranking a vote of confidence in what coach Eric Valenzuela is building in Long Beach, but that’s not to say the Dirtbags don’t have talent. A rotation led by lefthander Alfredo Ruiz and righthander Luis Ramirez should be solid once again, and the program will welcome in two recruits from the BA 500 for a quick infusion of talent.

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    Pepperdine Logo



    Key Departures: RHP Wil Jensen

    Projected Key Returners: SS Wyatt Young, OF Billy Cook, OF Reese Alexiades, RHP Cooper Chandler, RHP Gunnar Groen

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Brandon Llewellyn, SS Zachary Chonkich, OF Bailey Uderitz

    The Waves made it through the draft unscathed, but righthander Wil Jensen did sign as a nondrafted free agent once the draft ended. With righthanders Cooper Chandler, Gunnar Groen and Trevor Kniskern back in the fold, Pepperdine will have options in the rotation, and a lineup that is more physical than it has been in years past is projected to return completely intact.

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    Key Departures: LHP Garrett Crochet, OF Alerick Soularie, OF Zach Daniels

    Projected Key Returners: INF Liam Spence, INF Jake Rucker, 1B Luc Lipcius, RHP Chad Dallas, LHP Redmond Walsh, RHP Sean Hunley

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): SS Alec Gonzalez (300), RHP Ben Joyce (318), RHP Charez Butcher (323), RHP Blade Tidwell (408)

    Losing lefthander Garrett Crochet was a certainty going into the draft, but the losses of outfielders Alerick Soularie and Zach Daniels were more up in the air until they both ended up being taken. However, there is still talent everywhere you look on the Tennessee roster and it will bring in a solid recruiting class to further deepen the roster. The Volunteers should be ready to make back-to-back regional trips for the first time since 2004-2005.

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    Arizona State


    Key Departures: 1B Spencer Torkelson, SS Alika Williams, 3B Gage Workman, OF Trevor Hauver, RHP RJ Dabovich

    Projected Key Returners: 2B Drew Swift, OF Hunter Jump, RHP Boyd Vander Kooi, LHP Erik Tolman, RHP Tyler Thornton, LHP Cooper Benson

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): 3B Jack Moss (207), SS Hunter Haas (246), 3B/RHP Ethan Long (296), 1B Conor Davis

    Arizona State was expected to lose a ton of talent to the draft, but it ended up losing even more than most would have expected. That said, there is still a lot to like on the roster, including a pitching staff led by righthanders Boyd Vander Kooi and Tyler Thornton, and lefthanders Erik Tolman and Cooper Benson. Offensively, the return of second baseman Drew Swift and outfielder Hunter Jump will help, as will the incoming transfer of former Auburn first baseman Conor Davis.

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    Key Departures: RHP Chris McMahon, RHP Slade Cecconi, SS Freddy Zamora, RHP Tyler Keysor, RHP Brian Van Belle, 2B Luis Tuero

    Projected Key Returners: C Adrian Del Castillo, OF Gabe Rivera, OF Tony Jenkins, LHP/DH J.P. Gates, 2B Anthony Vilar, RHP Daniel Federman

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): RHP Victor Mederos (59), RHP Alejandro Rosario (60), SS Yohandy Morales (77), C Carlos Perez (137), RHP Jake Smith (146), RHP Carlos Rodriguez (215), 1B CJ Kayfus (344)

    Not unlike Arizona State, Miami’s personnel losses this offseason have been significant, not just from the draft, but also from nondrafted free agent signings like righthanders Brian Van Belle and Tyler Keysor. Even with a superstar like catcher Adrian Del Castillo back, the Hurricanes have a lot of rebuilding to do. A top-notch recruiting class that made it through the draft mostly intact can only help.

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    UC Santa Barbara

    Big West

    Key Departures: None

    Projected Key Returners: RHP Michael McGreevey, LHP Zach Torra, LHP Rodney Boone, RHP Conner Roberts, SS McClain O’Connor, 2B Marcos Castanon

    Key Newcomers (BA 500 rankings): SS Leo Mosby, RHP Michael Rice, RHP Nick Welch

    The Gauchos, which were last seen sweeping Oregon State right before the season was canceled, are expected to have everyone back in 2021. That’s great news for the program and bad news for the rest of the Big West. A rotation of righthander Michael McGreevey and lefthanders Zach Torra and Rodney Boone could be one of the best on the West Coast.

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