Pavin Smith

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Arizona Diamondbacks #9 prospect in 2021
  Hitting: 55. Power: 45. Running: 45. Fielding: 55. Arm: 55.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Smith was regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the 2017 draft and was selected seventh overall by the D-backs. He struggled at the start of his professional career, but turned things around midway through the 2019 season at Double-A Jackson. He pushed his way to the majors late in 2020, showing flashes of the kind of big leaguer he could become.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: In many ways, Smith is the same player he was coming out of college. He has excellent strike-zone awareness, good bat-to-ball skills and sneaky solid athleticism. The D-backs believe he also has made strides in other areas. He made adjustments to allow him to better stay back and hit the bottom of the ball at the alternate training site, translating to more power. He also has “transformed himself physically,” in the words of D-backs general manager Mike Hazen, adding speed and quickness. The club now feels comfortable with him in left and right field in addition to first base, where he is above-average. Smith has an above-average arm and is a fringe-average runner.
  
  THE FUTURE: Smith turned in competitive at-bats during his September cameo. His ability to play the outfield increases his likelihood of impacting the 2021 roster.
• 
  Ranked Arizona Diamondbacks #16 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: Smith long struggled to generate the kind of offensive production expected from him as the seventh overall pick of the 2017 draft, but he caught fire in the second half of last season to rekindle hopes of a major league future. Smith hit .329 with a .936 OPS at Double-A Jackson after the all-star break, finding a way to balance his top-notch plate discipline and contact skills with the ability to do damage.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Smith had been trying to tinker with his swing and approach, but his hot finish seemed more like him getting back to his old self. A natural hitter who can find the barrel and rarely expands the zone, he went back to spraying balls to left and center and trying to pull the ball with power only occasionally. While he's always been a good defender at first, he also played a more passable corner outfield in 2019, showing a sneaky good arm.
  
  THE FUTURE: Smith started to make his path toward a positive big league role more palatable. Whether he fully lives up to his draft slot remains to be seen, but he'll open 2020 in Triple-A Reno on the cusp of the majors.
• 
  Ranked Arizona Diamondbacks #17 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: Regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the 2017 draft class, Smith was the seventh overall pick, then turned in a solid pro debut, hitting for average if not power at the short-season level. His first full season did not go as well. In the hitter-friendly California League, he hit just .156 in April and was at .223 at the end of June. He finished strong, but his year raised concerns about his upside and future role.
  
  Scouting Report: Smith has a pretty swing and excellent plate discipline, but detractors see just average bat speed and say he's a below-average athlete. He's also a below-average runner, and the consensus is he's a first baseman only, putting even more pressure on the bat. He shows off plus raw power in BP but has trouble tapping into it. Many believe Smith was too passive at the plate and the organization was working with him on being more aggressive early in counts.
  
  The Future: Some scouts project Smith as a bat off the bench, and even most of those who like him are cautious in their comparisons. He'll likely open 2019 at Double-A Jackson.
• 
  Ranked Arizona Diamondbacks #3 prospect in 2018
  The lefthanded-hitting Smith was one of the most well-regarded pure hitters in the 2017 draft because of his sweet swing, impressive contact ability and a solid statistical track record in the Atlantic Coast Conference. As a junior at Virginia, he hit .342/.427/.570 and homered (13) more times than he struck out (12).While that played well with the D-backs' beefed up analytics department, team officials say traditional scouting played a larger role in his selection. Many D-backs scouts never saw Smith swing and miss, and the team believes that his power will develop last. His only professional home run came in short-season Hillsboro's final postseason game. Believers say the raw power is there, but it's a matter of Smith learning when to tap into it in game situations. No one doubts his ability to hit, with “advanced” and “special” used as descriptors by scouts, coaches and opposing managers. Smith doesn't run well, and though his arm and glove are fine at first base, scouts aren't sure he'd be an average defender in a corner outfield spot if he had to move. Whether Smith's future is at first base or in the outfield depends on Paul Goldschmidt, who is signed through 2019.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #15 prospect in 2017 draft
  Smith ranked 108 on the BA 500 out of Palm Beach Gardens High, where he was a teammate of Florida's J.J. Schwarz. An unsigned Rockies 32nd round pick, Smith attended Virginia and hit .307 as a freshman in the Cavaliers' 2015 national championship season. Smith has matured into the best pure hitter in the draft class for some scouts, making consistent hard contact with a pretty lefthanded swing and incredible ability to avoid swings and misses. As Virginia reached its exam break in May, Smith had more home runs (10) than strikeouts (seven), using an all-fields approach but still producing plus power while being a plus hitter. That ability to pair high contact with power bodes extremely well for the future, according to most teams' research. Smith moves well for his size and is a solid athlete, and most scouts consider him an above-average defender. The track record for college first baseman high in the draft is fairly mixed, but Smith has hit his way into contention
• Ranked #108 prospect in 2014 draft
  Palm Beach Gardens High, which produced Chris Volstad and Zach Miner, features one of the top hitting duos in the country with Smith and catcher J.J. Schwarz, both of whom were BA Preseason All-Americans. The 6-foot-2, 195-pound Smith has a large frame, well-proportioned build and room to add strength. He's an advanced hitter and could develop an above-average bat. His lefthanded swing works inside the ball with quickness and he has the ability to drive the ball up the middle. He rarely swings and misses and shows a strong understanding of the strike zone, though some scouts aren't sure if he has enough present power to profile at first base. He has the physical attributes and swing to develop plus power, but some believe it will be after three years at Virginia. Smith is a good athlete and is a fringe-average runner. He has an above-average arm that could allow him to play right field. He has touched 93 mph off the mound and has shown potential on the mound, though he has not always been healthy.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Northwest League #2 prospect in 2017
  Smith carved out a reputation as one of college baseball's finest hitters over the last three years, helping Virginia to the 2015 national title. He batted .342/.427/.570 with 13 homers and 77 RBIs for the Cavaliers this spring before the Diamondbacks Drafted him seventh overall in June. A 6-foot-2, 210-pound first baseman, Smith continued to hit in his pro debut with Hillsboro, batting .318/.401/.415 and showing a discerning eye with 27 walks to 24 strikeouts. Still, Smith puzzled some evaluators with his lack of power. He finished the regular season without a homer--though he did sneak one over the fence in the NWL playoffs. While concerning to some, the general consensus from league managers is that Smith's lack of homers stems more from his approach than from any deficiency in strength or in his swing. "He's so locked in on his approach that he doesn't waver from it," Hillsboro manager Shawn Roof said. "I think the power's gonna come." Smith has a smooth, level lefthanded swing that stays through the zone for a long time. The ball shoots off his bat in batting practice, but he is still learning when to pull the ball in game situations; he's just as content with an opposite-field single in a 3-1 count as he is a home run. Smith handles first base well and has a plus hit tool, but he can afford to subtract a few points from his batting average in order to drive the ball more frequently. That adjustment will be imperative for Smith to fit the prototypical power-hitting first baseman mold.

• March, 2021 Scouting Report
  Hitting: 55. Power: 45. Running: 45. Fielding: 55. Arm: 55.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Smith was regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the 2017 draft and was selected seventh overall by the D-backs. He struggled at the start of his professional career, but turned things around midway through the 2019 season at Double-A Jackson. He pushed his way to the majors late in 2020, showing flashes of the kind of big leaguer he could become.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: In many ways, Smith is the same player he was coming out of college. He has excellent strike-zone awareness, good bat-to-ball skills and sneaky solid athleticism. The D-backs believe he also has made strides in other areas. He made adjustments to allow him to better stay back and hit the bottom of the ball at the alternate training site, translating to more power. He also has “transformed himself physically,” in the words of D-backs general manager Mike Hazen, adding speed and quickness. The club now feels comfortable with him in left and right field in addition to first base, where he is above-average. Smith has an above-average arm and is a fringe-average runner.
  
  THE FUTURE: Smith turned in competitive at-bats during his September cameo. His ability to play the outfield increases his likelihood of impacting the 2021 roster.
• December, 2020 Scouting Report
  Hitting: 55. Power: 45. Running: 45. Fielding: 55. Arm: 55.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Smith was regarded as one of the best pure hitters in the 2017 draft and was selected seventh overall by the D-backs. He struggled at the start of his professional career, but turned things around midway through the 2019 season at Double-A Jackson. He pushed his way to the majors late in 2020, showing flashes of the kind of big leaguer he could become.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: In many ways, Smith is the same player he was coming out of college. He has excellent strike-zone awareness, good bat-to-ball skills and sneaky solid athleticism. The D-backs believe he also has made strides in other areas. He made adjustments to allow him to better stay back and hit the bottom of the ball at the alternate training site, translating to more power. He also has “transformed himself physically,” in the words of D-backs general manager Mike Hazen, adding speed and quickness. The club now feels comfortable with him in left and right field in addition to first base, where he is above-average. Smith has an above-average arm and is a fringe-average runner.
  
  THE FUTURE: Smith turned in competitive at-bats during his September cameo. His ability to play the outfield increases his likelihood of impacting the 2021 roster.
• July, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Smith long struggled to generate the kind of offensive production expected from him as the seventh overall pick of the 2017 draft, but he caught fire in the second half of last season to rekindle hopes of a major league future. Smith hit .329 with a .936 OPS at Double-A Jackson after the all-star break, finding a way to balance his top-notch plate discipline and contact skills with the ability to do damage.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Smith had been trying to tinker with his swing and approach, but his hot finish seemed more like him getting back to his old self. A natural hitter who can find the barrel and rarely expands the zone, he went back to spraying balls to left and center and trying to pull the ball with power only occasionally. While he’s always been a good defender at first, he also played a more passable corner outfield in 2019, showing a sneaky good arm.
  
  THE FUTURE: Smith started to make his path toward a positive big league role more palatable. Whether he fully lives up to his draft slot remains to be seen, but he’ll open 2020 in Triple-A Reno on the cusp of the majors.
• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Smith long struggled to generate the kind of offensive production expected from him as the seventh overall pick of the 2017 draft, but he caught fire in the second half of last season to rekindle hopes of a major league future. Smith hit .329 with a .936 OPS at Double-A Jackson after the all-star break, finding a way to balance his top-notch plate discipline and contact skills with the ability to do damage.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Smith had been trying to tinker with his swing and approach, but his hot finish seemed more like him getting back to his old self. A natural hitter who can find the barrel and rarely expands the zone, he went back to spraying balls to left and center and trying to pull the ball with power only occasionally. While he's always been a good defender at first, he also played a more passable corner outfield in 2019, showing a sneaky good arm.
  
  THE FUTURE: Smith started to make his path toward a positive big league role more palatable. Whether he fully lives up to his draft slot remains to be seen, but he'll open 2020 in Triple-A Reno on the cusp of the majors.
• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  It’s hard to find believers in the pro scouting community when it comes to Smith, who, in their eyes, has looked passive and overly contact-oriented and projects as a bench bat. The organization points to his solid strikeout/walk ratio and the competitive numbers he’s posted after a miserable April. It’s been a disappointing start for last year’s No. 7 overall pick, but he still has plenty of time to put it all together.