Why Is The 2025 MLB Draft Order So Hard To Determine?

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So, you want to know the 2025 MLB draft order?

It’s quite simple actually. Let’s start at the top.

The White Sox are coming off one of the worst seasons in baseball history after going 41-121 and finishing at the bottom of the league. So clearly they are picking in the top spot, right? Well, no. In 2022, as part of baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a draft lottery for the top six picks to help disincentivize tanking.

Fair enough. The White Sox at least had the best odds to win the first overall pick, right?

Well, also no.

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There’s another layer to the draft lottery whereby teams that pay into revenue sharing can’t pick in the lottery in back-to-back years, and teams that receive revenue sharing can’t pick in the lottery in three straight years. So, that means no top-six pick for the White Sox after picking fifth overall in the 2024 draft and also no top-six pick for the Athletics after picking sixth in 2023 and fourth in 2024.

All 18 non-playoff teams—minus the White Sox and Athletics for 2025—have odds to win a lottery pick each year. This year, the Nationals won the first overall pick in the draft. The six lottery teams were as follows:

1. Nationals
2. Angels
3. Mariners
4. Rockies
5. Cardinals
6. Pirates

So, now that we’re beyond our lottery picks, the White Sox will have the seventh pick thanks to their terrible 2024 record?

Still no. Teams excluded from the lottery aren’t able to pick until 10th at the earliest. Instead, the next spots go to:

7. Marlins
8. Blue Jays
9. Reds

Now, finally, we can get the White Sox and the Athletics on the board:

10. White Sox
11. Athletics

When ineligible teams like the White Sox and Athletics drop down to 10th at the earliest, the draft lottery odds they would have received are proportionally distributed to eligible draft lottery teams. After the lottery picks (the first six), the draft order for non-playoff teams is determined by the previous season’s standings. This takes us through pick 18:

12. Rangers
13. Giants
14. Rays
15. Red Sox
16. Twins
17. Cubs
18. Diamondbacks

Ok, we’re more than halfway through the first round order now. Things are going smoothly. Next we have the playoff teams. Under the 2022 CBA and draft lottery rules, playoff teams are now sorted by a combination of postseason finish, regular season standings and revenue sharing status.

The order of operations is as follows:

Teams that lose in the Wild Card Series select before teams that lose in the Division Series. Teams that lose in the Division Series select before teams that lose in the League Championship Series, and so on. Each year the World Series winner receives the last pick of the first round and all subsequent rounds.
Within each group of postseason rounds, losing teams who have payee status in revenue sharing select before non-payee teams. One that is settled, teams are ordered by reverse order of previous season regular season winning percentage.

For playoff teams, that essentially means the better you do in the postseason, the later your pick. The more money your club spends, the later your pick. The better you do in the regular season, the later your pick.

That gives us a 19-30 order as follows:

19. Orioles
20. Brewers
21. Astros
22. Braves
23. Royals
24. Tigers
25. Padres
26. Phillies
27. Guardians
28. Mets
29. Yankees
30. Dodgers

Thirty teams down. We made it through the first round!

Well, not really. You see, there’s another provision in these new draft order rules that states teams exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax will have their first overall pick dropped 10 spots (unless that team’s first pick is a lottery pick, which is protected from such a fall).

In 2025, that means each of the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers have their first pick dropped 10 spots.

Another quirk: Instead of the Mets picking 28th, the Royals have the 28th pick this year. Why? They received a prospect promotion incentive (PPI) pick after the first round because Bobby Witt Jr. was a top-three finisher in MVP voting before qualifying for arbitration. Teams can also win PPI picks for eligible players who win the rookie of the year award. The D-backs and Orioles both earned PPI picks in the 2024 draft thanks to rookie of the year wins by Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson, respectively.

28. Royals

Moving on, we have compensation picks for teams that 1) lose qualifying free agents 2) are revenue-sharing recipients and 3) see those free agents sign elsewhere for at least $50 million.

This year, there are four such compensation picks:

29. D-backs (compensation for Christian Walker)
30. Orioles (compensation for Corbin Burnes)
31. Orioles (compensation for Anthony Santander)
32. Brewers (compensation for Willy Adames)

Still with us? We’re almost done, don’t worry.

After the first round compensation picks, we get into Competitive Balance Round A. MLB officially calls these picks “competitive balance picks,” but Baseball America has always referred to them as “supplemental round picks,” in part to differentiate them from “compensation” picks and in part because they have little to do with competitive balance and a lot to do with pacifying smaller revenue owners.

Plus, as you’re now realizing, this draft order system is so straightforward that throwing our own little wrinkle into the naming convention seemed justified.

Anyway, there are two supplemental rounds that are made up of teams with one of either the 10 smallest markets in the game or one of the 10 smallest revenues. These teams alternate between the first supplemental round (after the first round) and the second supplemental round (after the second round) each year.

For 2025, the first supplemental round is as follows:

33. Brewers
34. Tigers
35. Mariners
36. Twins
37. Rays
38. Reds
39. Athletics
40. Marlins

Well… actually we still have some work to do on that order. Remember the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers? They have that 10-pick spending money penalty. So, their official first round picks fall right in the middle of the supplemental first round.

And did we mention that supplemental round picks are eligible to be traded? Well, they are. But no other picks. Why? Who knows? Either way, both the Reds and the Athletics traded theirs. The Reds sent theirs to the Dodgers in the Gavin Lux trade, while the A’s traded theirs to the Rays in the deal for Jeffrey Springs.

So, here’s the actual supplemental first-round order that also happens to have three regular first-round picks in the middle of it:

33. Brewers
34. Tigers
35. Mariners
36. Twins
37. Rays
38. Mets
39. Yankees
40. Dodgers
41. Dodgers
42. Rays
43. Marlins

Oh, and don’t forget, this order could still potentially change because teams can still trade their supplemental round picks before the draft takes place.

Ok, 43 picks down, only 572 more to go.

In the second round, the pick order reverts to the inverse of regular season standings for non-playoff teams, but the same order of the first round still applies for playoff teams. Additionally, a number of teams lost their second-round picks as part of penalties for signing free agents tied to qualifying offers. Those teams in 2025 are the Astros, Blue Jays, D-backs, Giants, Mets, Padres, Red Sox and Yankees.

After the second round, we have the supplemental second round (which MLB Calls Competitive Balance Round B), plus a pair of compensation picks for the Rays (67th for not signing Tyler Bell with the 66th pick in 2024) and Brewers (68th for not signing Chris Levonas with the 67th pick in 2024).

After the supplemental second round, the Red Sox have a compensation pick because Nick Pivetta was a qualified free agent who signed with the Padres. Boston gets its compensation pick here instead of right after the first round because the organization doesn’t receive revenue sharing.

The third round is relatively straightforward. The only team in this round without a pick is the A’s because they signed Luis Severino after he refused a qualifying offer from the Mets. After the third round, the Angels get a compensation pick for not signing Ryan Prager with the 81st pick in the 2024 draft. That is the final compensation pick for failed signings from a year ago. Top-three-round picks come with compensation for not signing players, so the Mets don’t receive any compensation after not signing ninth-rounder Jaxon Jelkin.

We have no notes on the fourth round, but immediately after the fourth round, the Braves have a compensation pick at No. 136 because Max Fried signed with the Yankees. The Braves’ compensation for Fried falls here because they did not receive revenue sharing and exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2024.

The fifth round is also fairly straightforward, though the Giants won’t pick in it because they signed Willy Adames, who was a qualified free agent. Once we get to the sixth round we can all relax. The order is stable and consistent from here on out through round 20:

White Sox
Rockies
Marlins
Angels
Athletics
Nationals
Blue Jays
Pirates
Reds
Rangers
Giants
Rays
Red Sox
Twins
Cardinals
Cubs
Mariners
D-backs
Orioles
Brewers
Astros
Braves
Royals
Tigers
Padres
Phillies
Guardians
Mets
Yankees
Dodgers

For those counting, that’s six lottery picks, one PPI pick, four first-round compensation picks, eight supplemental first-round picks, three first-round picks with 10-spot penalties, eight lost second-round picks, seven supplemental second-round picks, two second-round comp picks for failed 2024 draft signings, one second-round comp pick for a rich team losing a free agent, one lost third-round pick for signing a free agent, one third-round comp pick for not signing a third-rounder in 2024, one fourth-round comp pick for a rich team losing a free agent and one lost fifth-round pick for a rich team who signed a really good free agent later. Finally, the order is set!

So easy, even a baseball writer can do it.

Now, a few words on bonus pools, slot values and college senior signings….