Who's Picking Where? 2023 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Explained
*Updated on Nov. 7 with information on when the draft lottery will take place and draft order for postseason clubs.
With the 2022 regular season complete and the playoff field set, we now have a picture of the odds for the first ever draft lottery, which will decide the order of the 2023 draft.
The draft lottery was announced in the most recent CBA, and starting with the 2023 draft, a lottery among the 18 non-playoff teams will be used to determine the first six picks of the draft instead of simply using the reverse-order of the regular season standings.
The lottery is set to take place on Dec. 6 at the Winter Meetings in San Diego, with the order revealed on MLB Network beginning at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The three worst teams in baseball will have equal odds for the No. 1 pick, with the remaining 15 teams receiving descending odds in reverse order of their regular season records. Like previous years, ties will be broken by comparing respective clubs’ winning percentages during the previous season.
Below are the the 2023 lottery odds for each non-playoff team::
Odds For No. 1 Selection
- Nationals — 16.5%
- Athletics — 16.5%
- Pirates — 16.5%
- Reds —13.2%
- Royals — 10.0%
- Tigers — 7.5%
- Rangers — 5.5%
- Rockies — 3.9%
- Marlins — 2.7%
- Angels — 1.8%
- D-backs — 1.4%
- Cubs — 1.1%
- Twins — 0.9%
- Red Sox — 0.8%
- White Sox — 0.6%
- Giants — 0.5%
- Orioles — 0.4%
- Brewers — 0.2%
The draft order for the 12 playoff teams will now be determined by a combination of their finish in the postseason, revenue sharing status of the club and reverse order of winning percentage during the regular season.
Clubs that lose in the Wild Card Round will select before clubs that lose in the Division Series and clubs that lose in the Division Series will select before clubs that lose in the League Championship Series, and so on. Each year the team that wins the World Series will receive the last pick of the first round, as well as all subsequent rounds.
Within each group of postseason rounds, draft order will be determined first by revenue sharing status (payee clubs will pick before non-payee clubs) and then in reverse order of regular season winning percentage.
With the postseason complete, here is the 2023 draft order for all postseason clubs:
19. Rays (Wild Card loser, recipient, 86-76)
20. Blue Jays (Wild Card loser, neither, 92-70)
21. Cardinals (Wild Card loser, neither, 93-69)
22. *Mets (Wild Card loser, CBT payor, 101-61)
23. Mariners (LDS loser, recipient, 90-72)
24. Guardians (LDS loser, recipient, 92-70)
25. Braves (LDS loser, recipient, 101-61)
26. *Dodgers (LDS loser, CBT payor, 111-51)
27. Padres (LCS loser, CBT payor, 89-73)
28. Yankees (LCS loser, CBT payor, 99-63)
29. Philadelphia Phillies (World Series loser)
30. Houston Astros (World Series winner)
Both the Mets and the Dodgers could see their first pick fall by 10 spots if they exceed the competitive balance tax threshold of $230 million by more than $40 million. Currently, Spotrac has the Mets with a 2022 payroll in excess of $282 million and the Dodgers with a 2022 payroll in excess of $275 million.
For rounds 2-20, the non-playoff teams will pick in reverse order of their regular season winning percentage and playoff clubs will continue to select in the order mentioned above.
In addition to the new format for determining the draft order, there is a “competitive draft incentive” portion of the CBA that states competitive balance rounds A and B (which Baseball America refers to as supplemental rounds) will be determined by descending order of winning percentage—within each supplemental round, the best team of the group will pick first, followed by the second best and so on.
There are other wrinkles to the new draft order system that will have implications in future years. Clubs that are payee clubs under the revenue sharing plan will not be able to receive a lottery pick (a top six pick) in three consecutive years. Clubs that are non-payee clubs will not be able to receive a lottery selection in consecutive years.
The teams that are deemed ineligible in these instances will have their lottery odds reduced to zero and their first-round pick will be no earlier than the 10th overall pick. The odds of the remaining teams will be increased in proportion to each team's original odds—to ensure the sum of all eligible teams totals 100%.