Which Rule 5 Draft Picks Are Most Likely To Make MLB Rosters?

1. Shane Smith, RHP, White Sox

Stats: 1-1, 5.40, 3 GS, 6.2 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 HBP, 3 BB, 9 SO

The Good: Smith looked dominant in a March 8 appearance against the Dodgers. In a three-inning start, Smith struck out Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith in the first inning. He also caught Chris Taylor looking for a strikeout in the second and struck out Ohtani for a second time in the third inning. He sat at 97 mph and touched 98 while also showing an effective slider and curve with a less effective changeup.

The Bad: Smith’s first start of the spring was a rough one, but all four runs and all three walks he has allowed in three starts came in that first inning. He walked the first two batters he faced and gave up two runs in the first before being pulled after walking a third batter. Two of those runs eventually scored. He was then sent back out to pitch the second (yes, spring training is different) and retired the side in order.

Outlook: There’s no better roster to try to make than the White Sox. Chicago has stretched Smith out as a starter, and he could try to find a spot ahead of more experienced veterans, but he’s on the right track to at least earn a spot as a long reliever/swingman who can slide between the bullpen and serve as a fill-in starter.

2. Liam Hicks, C, Marlins

Stats: .267/.476/.267 (4-for-15), 0 R, 4 H, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 3 SO, 3 HBP

The Good: Hicks has proven to be a good target for pitchers, both behind the plate and when he’s standing in the batter’s box. He has been hit by three pitches in the past two days, which has seen his on-base percentage soar. Hicks has been showing a tick-above-average arm behind the plate and has thrown out three of six basestealers. 

The Bad: He hasn’t been outmatched at the plate, but Hicks also hasn’t exactly been imposing. He’s yet to have an extra-base hit, and he’s not hitting many balls that put a fear in outfielders. Hicks isn’t a power hitter, and he relies on getting on-base to provide an offensive impact, but he does need to show a little more pop. 

Outlook: Hicks has more innings behind the plate than any other Marlins catcher this spring. Nick Fortes seems set to be the starter, but Hicks is battling non-roster invitee Rob Brantly and potentially prospect Agustin Ramirez for the backup role.

3. Garrett McDaniels, LHP, Angels

Stats: 0-0, 1.59, 5 G, 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO

The Good: McDaniels has allowed just one run so far in five appearances. Keeping baserunners from scoring is the key job of a reliever, and McDaniels has excelled so far at doing so.

The Bad: McDaniels’ surface-line numbers may look really good, but pitchers, even lefties, who miss this few bats struggle to have long-term success. McDaniels struck out Luke Raley in his first appearance of the spring. He’s gone 18 batters since then without a strikeout, and a number of his outs have come on hard-hit line drives.

Outlook: McDaniels is fighting for a bullpen role. He hasn’t done anything to disqualify himself from breaking camp with the club, but he still needs to show he can miss more bats to stick around.

4. Noah Murdock, RHP, Athletics

Stats: 0-1, 4.76, 5 G, 5.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HBP, 4 BB, 5 SO, 2 WP

The Good: As a sinker-slider pitcher who can sit 95-96 mph, Murdock generates plenty of ground balls. And that helps him do a good job of wriggling out of jams he gets himself into. A pair of well-time groundball double plays have helped him escape more significant damage. The Athletics are giving him plenty of chances to show what he can do. Twice he’s been brought into innings with runners on base. He struck out Druw Jones to escape a bases-loaded jam he inherited in Sunday’s game. Inserted with one out and the bases loaded in the March 6 game against the Brewers, he allowed just one run on a ground out before striking out Cooper Pratt to end the inning.

The Bad: Murdock hasn’t shown even fringe-average MLB control so far this spring. He’s sporting a 55% strike rate that is well below the 63-64% MLB average, and it has led to bouts of wildness that could quickly blow up into bigger innings. Murdock has been pulled from one game mid-inning this spring.

Outlook: Murdock’s ability to pile up ground balls could make him a useful reliever who can help erase hitters on the basepaths as a mid-inning fireman. But he has to show more control to give manager Mark Kotsay confidence he can handle that role.

5. Evan Reifert, RHP, Nationals

Stats: 0-0, 11.12, 6 GS, 5.2 IP, 5 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 7 BB, 8 SO

The Good: Reifert’s slider is an extremely effective pitch. He struck out all three batters he faced in a Feb. 25 appearance against the Marlins. He got six swings-and-misses on his mid-80s slider that day, relying on it for 12 of the 16 pitches he threw. He also struck out two of the three batters he faced in a scoreless inning against the Mets on March 7.

The Bad: Reifert has struggled with his control regularly as a minor leaguer, and that’s been a recurring problem this spring. In a disastrous outing against the Marlins on Monday, Reifert gave up two hits, walked two batters and threw three wild pitches in just one inning of work.

Outlook: Reifert’s control troubles make it hard to see how he can find a spot in a big league bullpen, even for a rebuilding team like the Nationals.

6. Angel Bastardo, RHP, Blue Jays

Stats: Has Not Pitched

The Outlook: Bastardo is continuing to recover from Tommy John surgery he had in midseason 2024. This actually may make it easier for the Blue Jays to keep him. Once he’s back on the mound, he can be sent to the minors on an injury rehabilitation stint for up to 30 days. At that point, he’ll have to be carried on the MLB roster for the remainder of the season. If that’s 90 or more days on the active roster, he’ll have fulfilled MLB Rule 5 roster requirements. If not, he’ll need to spend enough days on the MLB active roster to start the 2026 season to meet that requirement.

7. Cooper Bowman, 2B/OF, Reds

Stats: .120/.267/120 (3-for-25) 3 R, 4 RBIs, 4 BB, 8 SO, 3 SB, 1 HBP

The Good: Bowman has gotten a chance to showcase his versatility for the Reds. He’s played first and second base and left and center field this spring. He’s also been the team’s most successful basestealer with three steals in three attempts.

The Bad: Bowman’s .387 OPS is worst among all Reds hitters with 20 or more at-bats this spring. He’s yet to show much of any offensive impact other than his basestealing ability.

Outlook: Bowman is battling Jacob Hurtubise and Blake Dunn for a spot as a backup outfielder, although in Bowman’s case, he can also play in the infield. While Bowman has just three singles this spring, Hurtubise is 8-for-16 (.500/.619/.750) with two doubles and a triple and four steals in five attempts. Dunn is hitting .316/.386/.426 with a double and a home run in 21 plate appearances.

8. Nate Lavender, LHP, Mets

Stats: Has Not Pitched

Outlook: Much like Bastardo, Lavender was drafted with the knowledge that he would miss the first half of the season as he recovers from an internal brace procedure on his left elbow.

9. Eiberson Castellano, RHP, Twins

Stats: 0-0, 7.71, 3 G, 4.2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 7 SO

The Good: Castellano struck out three of the four batters he faced in his Twins debut on Feb. 23.  He sat at 95-96 mph while effectively mixing a curve, two different fastballs and a changeup.

The Bad: Castellano’s most recent start this spring was easily his roughest. He was handed a bit of bad luck in his first inning of work, as a two-out throwing error by Danny De Andrade allowed a run to score. But he walked two batters and gave up a single in his second inning of work as another run scored.

Outlook: Castellano’s fastball-curve combination is promising, but he’s battling a large number of veterans for a spot in a pretty crowded Twins bullpen.

10. Gage Workman, 3B, Cubs

Stats: .438/.472/.750 (14-for-32) 7 R, 1 2B, 3 HR, 13 RBIs, 3 BB, 7 SO, 3 SB, 2 CS

The Good: Workman has been one of the stars of spring training. He leads all spring training hitters with his .438 batting average, and he’s second to Trayce Thompson in on-base and slugging percentage.

The Bad: There’s been nothing to complain about Workman’s performance so far. In addition to fine work at third base, he’s also showcased his defensive value and versatility by playing short stints at second base and shortstop.

Outlook: The Cubs have already told Workman that he’s coming to Japan for the Japan Series. It’s hard to see how he won’t make the Opening Day roster with the way he’s playing.

11. Anderson Pilar, RHP, Marlins

Stats: 0-0, 3.86, 5 G, 4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 10 SO, 1 WP

The Good: Pilar’s mid-80s slider can be a weapon, and it’s helped him strike out 10 of the 23 batters he’s faced this spring for an exceptional 43.5% strikeout rate.

The Bad: Pilar’s control has been shaky at times, and he’s given up six hits and a .300 opponent’s average. He’s allowed two triples this spring.

Outlook: The Braves are a playoff team, which makes it hard to carry an inconsistent reliever, even if he shows flashes of being an effective pitcher.

12. Juan Nunez, RHP, Padres

Stats: 0-0, 10.80, 2 G, 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 1 WP

The Good: Nunez’s introduction to the Padres has been a rough one. He was slowed at the start of spring training with a shoulder injury, but he has returned to the mound.

The Bad: Starting off behind other pitchers made a tough job for Nunez even tougher. He’s looked rusty in his first two appearances, as he’s throwing just over 50% of his pitches for strikes. He’s going to have to show better control in his upcoming outings.

Outlook: Nunez was already going to have a rough time finding a spot on this roster. A late start is going to make that an even tougher ask.

13. Connor Thomas, LHP, Brewers

Stats: 0-0, 0.00, 3 G, 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 SO

The Good: The first hit Thomas allowed this spring didn’t come until the 14th batter he faced. He’s been exactly as advertised as a well-seasoned, multi-pitch lefty with plus control.

The Bad: Thomas hasn’t had a bad outing yet. He did give up a pair of singles to Jorge Soler and Christian Moore in his most-recent outing, but he escaped the jam.

The Outlook: It’s hard to see what more Thomas could do to earn a spot in the Brewers’ bullpen.  

14. Mike Vasil, RHP, Rays

Stats: 0-1, 9.45, 4 G, 1 GS, 6.2 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 SO, 1 WP

The Good: Sandwiched around a number of very rough innings, Vasil has had a pair of innings where he retired all three batters he faced.

The Bad: Three of four of Vasil’s outings this spring have been ugly. Opponents are hitting .375/.394/.656 against him.

Outlook: Vasil was a Rule 5 pick because he had Triple-A experience and was hoped to be ready to contribute to a big league bullpen. At this point, it’s hard to see how he won’t be offered back to the Mets.

15. Christian Cairo, SS, Braves

Stats: .211/.318/.263 (4-for-19) 2 R, 4 H, 1 2B, 2 RBIs, 2 BB, 2 SO, 1 SB

The Good: Cairo is a solid defender who has shown he can handle the demands of being a big league shortstop. With one steal this spring, he’s speedy enough to be a basestealing threat, as well.

The Bad: Cairo’s bat looks a bit light. He’s yet to show much pop at all, but he has held his own with a contact-oriented approach.

Outlook: Cairo will have to beat out Nick Allen for the Braves’ backup infielder job. Eli White, primarily an outfielder, factors into these decisions, as well, because he has played second base and shortstop this spring. Allen, like Cairo, is a solid defensive shortstop. But unlike Cairo, he has MLB experience, and while his bat is also a question, he is hitting .385/.467/.462 this spring.