Which MLB Teams Will Be The Biggest Surprise Of 2025?
Image credit: Elly De La Cruz (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
In a series of MLB predictions and preview posts, BA’s editorial staff goes on record with their bold—and not so bold—thoughts about what’s to come in the 2025 season.
We begin with the question: Which team will be the biggest surprise of the 2025 season?
Our prognosticators this year are Ben Badler, Jesús Cano, Mark Chiarelli, Carlos Collazo, J.J. Cooper, Matt Eddy, Josh Norris, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White.
Athletics
Jesús Cano: The Athletics are going to wake up a lot of people this season, and for years to come. They’ve got established hitters in their lineup like Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers and Lawrence Butler, and Jacob Wilson has the potential to win multiple battle titles in his career. And for the first time heading into the season, the club has an established starting rotation with a solid bullpen that features Mason Miller closing games. Zack Gelof’s performance will be the deciding factor between this team being good and great, especially if he can replicate what he did during his callup in 2023.
Josh Norris: Even without a big league park to call home, they did some interesting stuff this offseason and could make a run at the third wild card. This will be especially true if Jacob Wilson can bust out, Lawrence Butler provides a strong encore and Nick Kurtz joins the fray to add even more thump.
Brewers
Ben Badler: Is this a cheater pick? The Brewers won 93 games and the National League Central last year, but projection systems generally have them pegged as a .500 team this year. I just don’t see that happening. Milwaukee has a young lineup with Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang and William Contreras all under 28 years old and all capable of making an impact on both sides of the ball. They should be back playing postseason baseball in 2025.
Reds
Carlos Collazo: Cincinnati stumbled in 2024, but I could see them bouncing back in a big way in 2025 with Matt McLain returning to the fold to help support a strong and deep homegrown rotation. Hunter Greene is a great centerpiece and the Reds have no shortage of quality depth behind him between Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Nick Lodolo and perhaps Chase Burns and Chase Petty sooner rather than later.
Matt Eddy: I feel like I choose the Reds every year. After they hired future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona, I’m not going to change that pick now. If Elly De La Cruz makes The Leap, he becomes an MVP candidate, and the Cincinnati offense has enough intriguing pieces—such as Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer, Gavin Lux and Christian Encarnacion-Strand—to build a cohesive run-scoring unit. The lineup could definitely benefit from one more sure thing, but at the same time it doesn’t really have the dead spots present on a pretending team. Like no club aside from the Mariners or perhaps Pirates, the Reds have an enviable, young rotation of power arms. Just like De La Cruz, Greene could be poised to make The Leap, while a cohort of fellow first-round arms Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns could make life miserable for NL Central opponents.
Geoff Pontes: After a season with a few really good choices in the Tigers and the Royals, 2025 seems to be a year with less surprise candidates. For this reason I’m going with the Reds. They’re in a fairly wide open division, with a young and improving roster and a newly hired future Hall of Fame manager in Terry Francona. The return of Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and others will provide the Reds with depth within their positional corps. While the addition of Brady Singer adds some experience to a young rotation that will likely house multiple callup options in Triple-A. The Brewers and Cubs are the early favorites but the Reds are poised to take another step forward in 2025.
Royals
Mark Chiarelli: Like Ben’s Brewers, I’m not quite sure why projections systems aren’t buying the Royals as much more than a .500 team. They won 86 games in 2024, which was five wins less than their expected pythagorean win-loss–plus a wild card series, then returned virtually everyone. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a perennial MVP candidate, Vinnie Pasquantino is healthy and they’ll get a full season out of a deeper bullpen between last year’s deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg and winter pickup Carlos Estevez. Throw in the much-needed on-base help from Jonathan India and the Royals are my pick to win a wide-open AL Central, and then a playoff series or two as well.
Tigers
Dylan White: I like the Tigers again for this year. I expect Riley Greene, Colt Keith, and Kerry Carpenter to take steps forward with the bat–and adding Gleyber Torres should solidify the lineup. The pitching– with reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal–could be where they really shine, (re)signing Jack Flaherty, having Jackson Jobe poised to be a meaningful contributor, and with Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long and even Alex Cobb all expected to be productive run preventers in 2025. With hitting prospects Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle and underrated Hao-Yu Lee not too far away, I might be picking the Tigers again in 2026.
Twins
J.J. Cooper: The Twins were the only AL Central team that tried in 2024 that failed to make the playoffs. I would expect to see them return to the postseason in 2025. Minnesota has built solid starting pitching and infield depth, and top prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall should arrive at some point this summer
