Updated Top 100 Prospects Chat (May 11)
Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody. Glad to be here. Let's get started
J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting, Kyle. I'm curious what's keeping Rafael Devers outside the top 10? He's been keeping up with expectations, and then some.
Kyle Glaser: Hi J.P. My pleasure and glad to be here. Really Devers hasn’t done anything wrong to keep him out of the top 10. He’s undeniably an elite prospect. It’s more a function of just some other guys who have some higher ceilings that are also producing big-time. Regardless, Devers will be a top 10 prospect as soon as some of those guys graduate as long as he keeps doing what he is doing.
Brock Cannon (San Diego): Did Espinoza drop because of lost time or because he might be injured? And how much further will he drop if he needs surgery?
Kyle Glaser: Espinoza dropped because he hasn’t pitched. He’s stagnant while others are rising. We dropped Alex Reyes about seven spots with his TJ, although he had already been in the majors and was successful at higher levels. Espinoza will drop some more if he needs surgery or is out for the whole year, no two ways about it.
Frank (Indianapolis IN): I get it - it's only been a month, but how is Meadows still in the top 5? He's been struggling quite a bit, and there remains no room at the inn for him in Pittsburgh. Did you guys simply remove those above him who graduated, or what?
Kyle Glaser: We talked about Meadows quite a bit and did move some guys previously behind him in front of him (Bellinger, namely). At the end of the day we weren’t going to kill a guy over a slow one month start, but Meadows is definitely on the hot seat and will drop if nothing improves by July.
BJ (Boston): Thanks for the list, good help for dynasty leaguers. Did Tyler Mahle get any consideration? Velo and Ks way up, threw a perfect game in AA, pretty impressive. Another update at the end of May when guys like Bellinger, Freeland, Senzatela, Montgomery lose their eligibility would be much appreciated as well.
Kyle Glaser: Mahle didn’t get an overwhelming amount of consideration just because there are so many guys ahead of him performing who have higher ceilings. That said, he is on our radar and will get much more consideration if he keeps this up. Our next update will be the midseason update, so might have to wait a bit.
Grant (NYC): Predict for us who will hit his first HR of the season first - Moniak or Rutherford? What's keeping the pop in their bats suppressed, anyway?
Kyle Glaser: Rutherford. He’s always had more power of the two. And don’t underestimate the jump from Rookie ball to full-season ball. It’s huge, especially for high schoolers. They’re still in the adjustment period. They’ll be fine.
Mike (Toronto, ON): Who will get called up first between Amed Rosario and Yoan Moncada?
Kyle Glaser: I’d think Moncada just because the White Sox need him even more than the Mets need Rosario, but unforeseen injuries will play a role too. I expect both to be up this season, doesn’t matter a ton if one is there a month before the other.
Kyle (St. Louis, MO): Doesn't TJ surgery typically knock one down more than just a few spots on a prospect list? (Re: Reyes).
Kyle Glaser: Yes, but with Reyes you’re talking about a guy who dominated in Triple-A and showcased brilliance in the majors, so you’re still talking about probably the best pitching prospect in baseball when you match ceiling and risk. If he was a guy in LoA it’d be different and he’d have dropped a lot further.
Paul (Seattle, WA): About where would McKay and Greene fit in on this list had they been eligible?
Kyle Glaser: Last year’s top picks all got slotted in around 40-60s when they were drafted. Maybe you guy a little higher with McKay and Greene into the 20s, maybe teens with Greene, but they’re not top 10. Don’t kid yourself. Pro ball (especially the higher levels) is a world away from amateur baseball. Need to prove it in the pros before you’re top 10.
Adam (Las Vegas): With Josh Naylor's strong start to the season, do you feel vindicated in keeping him on your Padres Top 10 list?
Kyle Glaser: I don’t know if vindicated is the right word, but it was clear (to me at least) the bat had potential and he didn’t swing and miss a lot, so he was a minor adjustment away rather than an overhaul like some of the other guys I was surprised to see other people had on their top 10s. Regardless, we’ll see if he keeps it up when he returns from his freak face injury courtesy of an Eric Lauer pickoff throw.
Laura (Tampa, FL): You saw Honeywell pitch this morning. In your expert opinion, about how much seasoning will he need before he's ready for the Trop?
Kyle Glaser: He was really, really freaking good today. Big league stuff and big league command. Still learning to get past the fifth and sixth inning, but he’s already made progress with that from start one in Triple-A to start five. Honestly, I imagine he’d be ready by midsummer, but keep in mind the Rays move their pitchers notoriously slow.
BK (Abbotsford, BC): Bo Bichette has raked ever since he was drafted, so it's great to see him crack his first top 100 list! Does he have top 50 potential by the time the end of season lost comes around?
Kyle Glaser: If he keeps up his current .365/.450/.594 line as a 19-year old playing middle infield in full-season ball, yeah, that’s a top 50 prospect.
Matt (New York): So I take it kopech's inability to throw strikes at any point and time is meaningless? This is what I'm seeing.
Kyle Glaser: There is no question his walk rate is high, but it’d be one thing if he was 24. He’s newly 21 in Double-A striking out 12.6 per nine with a 2.70 ERA. That’s elite stuff and performance. The walks need to come down no question, but that’s part of the development curve and he’s got time to figure it out.
Steve (Stuck in a basemant in Bellevue, WA): Thoughts on Mitchell White? Was he close to making the list?
Kyle Glaser: Not really. He’s a very good pitcher and personal cheeseball of our main man John Manuel, and the stuff is excellent, but he’s also getting roughed up a bit in HiA (4.85 ERA, 1.346 WHIP). Just doesn’t have the track record or performance yet to be a Top 100 guy. He may get there, but not yet.
Dom (Chicago): Lucas Giolito had quite a fall in the rankings. In BA's view, does he now have a lower ceiling moving forward?
Kyle Glaser: We surveyed a lot of scouts on this and have yet to find anyone that gives him better than a “50” overall grade, which is a back-end starter/7th inning reliever. Most go a tick lower and grade him a 45, which is a pure No. 5/middle relief grade. So yes, his ceiling is undeniably lower at this point with what he is showing.
Eric (Hiding from work): How close was Forrest Whitley to making the list?
Kyle Glaser: He was in the conversation. Definitely a guy who could move into it by midseason with some graduations.
Burt Macklin (FBI): With the Rockies trio of Marquez, Senzatela, and Freeland all set to lose prospect eligibility in the next couple weeks, who are some guys who just missed who will fill in those last three spots? Did Kilome get some love after his hot start?
Kyle Glaser: First of all, props on your username. Kilome was definitely brought up, Carson Fulmer and Zack Burdi got some love, Whitley as previously mentioned. Those were a few.
Tommy N. (San Diego): Luis Urias skyrockets into the top 100 at #57. What is he finally showing or doing for you to rank him so high?
Kyle Glaser: He’s playing shortstop and the power is growing. There were still some doubters on him, but with those two things happening as the youngest player in Double-A and hitting .340-plus, there really is no argument against him anymore.
Joe (Ny): Interesting to see Adams and Montgomery sneak on the back end, thoughts on both of them?
Kyle Glaser: Both can be quality starters in the big leagues. Not aces or studs, but good solid starters, which are always highly valuable
Big Dawg (Flushing): From a fantasy baseball perspective who is the best Outfielder to have: Jimenez, Robles or Brinson?
Kyle Glaser: From a fantasy perspective Brinson just because he is closest to the majors and will play in a hitters park in Milwaukee. From a building a franchise perspective…well, I love me some Eloy.
Rick M. (Walnut Creek, CA): I imagine Hunter Greene will rank in the top 10 after the draft, if not the the top 5 ?
Kyle Glaser: No. Pitcher risk is insanely high. Maybe he could get into the teens, but you’re not going to put a kid with questionable breaking ball potential who just shut down after 28 HS innings in over guys pumping 96 with two potential above-average secondaries getting guys out in the upper minors. Hunter Greene has the potential to be special, but you’ve got to prove it before you’re top 10 out of the thousands of minor leaguers in pro baseball.
Greg (GA): Who is the next Braves prospect that could join the list at midseason?
Kyle Glaser: Patrick Weigel. Crushed it in Double-A and just got promoted to Gwinnett.
John (Canada): How has Willie Calhoun's defense been in the early going? Do the Dodgers seem like they'll give him the entire season at 2B to either sink or swim or is a move to the OF inevitable?
Kyle Glaser: They'll give him as many games at second base as they can to give him the opportunity to improve. But at present, the move to the outfield indeed seems inevitable
Harry (New York, NY): What's been the reason(s) for Justin Dunn's struggles in the pitcher-friendly FSL thus far?
Kyle Glaser: Just not showing swing and miss stuff. Guys are barreling him up when he is in the zone, and he is also spending too much time out of it. It's concerning, no question.
BK (Abbotsford, BC): How much top 100 consideration did Blue Jays SPs Conner Greene and TJ Zeuch get?
Kyle Glaser: Greene was sort of on the fringes, none for Zeuch.
Jordan M. (Oklahoma City): Ian Anderson #60, Sixto Sanchez #61, Matt Manning #81... where is Forest Whitley? Why are these three so much higher than him?
Kyle Glaser: Some of it is precedent. Early on you don't want to overreact to 3-5 starts, as good or bad as they may be. If Whitley keeps this up though, he'll be there
Warren (Texas): I thought two Tigers porpsects (Burrows and Stewart) stood a good chance of making the list. As I thought why not, Stewart is obvious power and walks and that is it with poor defense, but Burrows? After the start he has had I thought he would. How close were they? Thanks for the chat!
Kyle Glaser: I really like Christin Stewart and would have been happy to have him on here, but the defensive questions and high strikeout totals can't be ignored. Still, he was in the discussion. Burrows name came up, and if he keeps this up he'll be on there by midseason
Steve (Chicago): Would Luis Robert be a top 100 prospect? If so, where would he fall?
Kyle Glaser: The top international guys without any pro experience typically land in the 80-100 range - that's where Maitan and Morejon started, for example - so you're probably looking somewhere in there
Joshua B. (Syracuse, NY): I'd like to hear your defense for snubbing Derek Fisher following his impressive start at AAA.
Kyle Glaser: Some of it is PCL wariness (guys who hit .245 in Double-A and then .325 in the PCL raises more than a few eyebrows) and the upside is not as high as other guys. He's got a chance to be a nice complementary player, but you won't find any evaluators out there who think he's a future All-Star or first-division regular. Still a likely big leaguer and fine prospect in his own right.
Zeke P (Boram, NY): Ronald Guzman raked in AA last year, but struggled in AAA. But so far this year hes shown he can hit in AAA. Is it his K rate that keeps him constantly out of the Top 100?
Kyle Glaser: That but he's also a first baseman with limited power. Never hit more than 16 HR in a minor league season. For a first baseman to be a top 100 guy you've gotta rake, and he doesn't do it to that level
Richard (Roseville CA): Love BA and their chats .. But, I really don't understand how you can have Mickey Moniak over a guy like Ronald Acuna ? Everything about Moniak so far spells solid player and everything about Acuna spells potential mega superstar ... Yes, Acuna does strike out to much right now, but he has Moniak beat in every facet of the game excluding plate discipline and the power is not even close .. I guess BA is taking the wait and see approach before they put Acuna in the top 10 but there can't be more than a handful of players in the minors with the talent of Acuna. Meanwhile Moniak looks very average every night. Acuna is two levels above Moniak as well and the numbers are not even close at all.
Kyle Glaser: You're underselling Moniak. Moniak is every bit as fast, every bit as good a defender in center, has better feel to hit. And don't underestimate how much of a red flag Acuna's 32 percent strikeout rate is. Acuna is explosive yes and occasionally electrifying, but Moniak has less holes in his game and matches his strengths with Acuna's pretty well
60-Man Player Pools Give Insights Into How First-Rounders Have Panned Out
We looked at which first-round picks from the 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts have been added to 60-man player pools and which players were left out to see which first-rounders worked out.
Jason (Seattle, WA): With Ronald Acuna in Double A at 19, how soon will he be in Atlanta and what kind of player does he project as?
Kyle Glaser: It's really going to depend on if he cuts down the strikeouts. If he does that, we could see him in Atlanta next season. If not, who knows. That's going to be the main thing to watch with him
Warren (Texas): Two questions- Who have you found to be the most disappointing prospect so far, and which prosect has surprised you the most pleasantly thus far? Thanks for the chat!
Kyle Glaser: Austin Meadows probably. Just hasn't put it together like everyone thinks he can. Surprise for me might actually be A.J. Puk. He's had two or three bad starts, but when he's been on it's been jaw-dropping. Knew he was talented, but man it's really been something.
Bryan Weisgal (Wyoming): In recent years top prep short stops have moved quickly and dominated (Correa/Machado)How far away do you think Brandon Rodgers is from the majors? Does he have the potential to make that kind of impact?
Kyle Glaser: Rodgers has a good chance to be in the majors next year. He's not quite a Correa/Machado level guy, think one tier lower a la Addison Russell. That's still pretty excellent.
Sam (NYC): Alex Jackson seems to be back on track - did he receive any consideration for the Top 100? Or is it too soon to consider him?
Kyle Glaser: Too soon. He's had good 100 PA stints before. Seeing him put it together for even a half season would be a step forward we have yet to ever see
Sam (NYC): Jack Flaherty: 5-0 with 0.69 ERA /0.74 WHIP with a 40/5 K/BB ratio in 39 IP in AA - and this after BA dropped him from the Cards' #3 prospect after the 2015 season to the Cards' #11 prospect after last seson - maybe you guys might want to say "our bad" about Flaherty? and maybe you guys might want to rightly list Flaherty as a Top 100 Prospect? He has consistently outperformed others on the list
Kyle Glaser: I can't speak for Derrick Goold, who ranks the Cardinals for us, and what went in to his decision to drop Flaherty. I will say he is off to an excellent start and definitely received some consideration, and will be on our Top 100 at midseason if he keeps this up
J (Philly): What kind of upside do you see for Rhys Hoskins?
Kyle Glaser: I see a middle of the order first baseman who becomes a fan favorite in Philadelphia
Jon (Tampa): Mr. Glaser, thank you for the chats and would you mind your ranking/opinion on the following pitchers: Puk, Yohander Mendez, Quantrill, Franklin Perez and Oscar de la Cruz.
Kyle Glaser: You're welcome. I'm gonna do this knowing down the road at least one of these guys will make me look bad. Personally I'd go Perez, Quantrill, Puk, Mendez and I haven't seen enough of De La Cruz to have a great feel on where to put him in
Joe (Philadelphia): What is the right move for JP Crawford? A return to Reading to improve his approach and find his swing or should the Phils continue to get him regular ABs in Lehigh?
Kyle Glaser: Leave him in Lehigh at least a little longer to see if he can sort it out. If it's still this bad by July, I make a move down
Eric (Miami, FL): He's had only one pro start, but is Braxton Garrett worth mentioning in terms of your top 100?
Kyle Glaser: Yup. He's on our list at 80. We were wary because he hadn't actually pitched, but now that he has he's firmly on there
Matt (Virginia): Hey Kyle, thanks for the chat. Sorry for the late question but my question surrounds Jake Gatewood. He has turned a new leaf with the glasses. I feel like he was a very highly touted guy when he was drafted. Does he still have that sky high ceiling? What do you think is realistic regarding his projections as a hitter?
Kyle Glaser: I think he has a chance to be a useful power-hitting corner bat, some 1b/3B. Not a bonafide All-Star type, but now that he can see and is hitting again he's showing some things that project well for a major league role in some capacity.
Rick (Cincinnati): Thanks for the chat! Has Tyler Stephenson, catcher for the Red's, gained any steam back after an injury plagued sophomore season?
Kyle Glaser: Definitely. Need to see him keep it up, but so far so good
Jason (Sacramento, CA): Logan Shore pitching nicely for Stockton, and Chris Shaw has been raking in Double A. Were either close to making the List ?
Kyle Glaser: If I had seen Shaw before we finalized the list instead of after, I would've pushed harder for his inclusion. He's worthy. Shore is a nice pitcher, want to see him keep it up
Travis (Omak wa): Should I be worried about Tyler O'neils rough start to the season or is this just a bump in the road?
Kyle Glaser: Wouldn't panic yet. First month at a new level for young guy should be an unofficial grace period sometimes. If this carries into month 2 and 3 with zero improvements or adjustments, then worry a little.
Mike (FL): Curious why Carson Fulmer was left off the list walks are way down stuff has always been there? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: He was a close. Just a function of so many worthy guys. He'll be back on the midseason list at the rate he's going
BJ (Boston): The other guy that's hitting all my watchlists right now is Dinelson Lamet - good K numbers at AAA, probably the closest of all SD prospects to the bigs right now. Did he receive any consideration for the list update? I feel like he might have been discounted given his proximity to the bigs vs. his ceiling as compared to some of the more trendy names, but I think we'll see him in the majors this year, possibly very soon.
Kyle Glaser: Yup. Was happy to be the guy who had him highest of all the Padres prospect lists out there. Not a top 100 guy b/c of command issues, but shoudl be a very good big leaguer
Dan (Washington, DC): Stevenson in Center soon for the Nationals?
Kyle Glaser: Guy is a great athlete who can fly. Off to a slow start at Triple-A, lets see how he adjusts there before we move further.
Brady (Columbia): If Austin Riley's keeps his current numbers up, could he sneak onto the midseason top 100?
Kyle Glaser: He'd be in the conversation. Gonna be a lot of other guys to deal with who also are putting up big numbers, but Riley is showing some good things at HiA
Warren (Texas): I was surprised to see Andres Gimenez on this list so quickly. What does his prospect profile look like? Any chance that he, and not Rosario, is the Mets SS of the future? Thanks for the chat!
Kyle Glaser: Rosario takes precedence. He is a legit stud who is gonna take the position and not give it up easily. Gimenez is a nice player, but he's a few years away. Rosario is the Mets SS of the future until proven otherwise
Aaron (San Diego): Why is Quantrill barely ahead of Garrett who has 1 start and without Groome level stuff? Quantrill should be top 40 imo. Command/control projection with above average stuff.
Kyle Glaser: Part of it is Quantrill is really excelling with FB command and CH right now, breaking stuff is still inconsistent. Garrett and Groome are both lefthanded and spin the ball better, which elevates them. That said, Quantrill is an excellent prospect who keeps climbing, and there's no reason to doubt he can make the adjustments necessary as long as he remains healthy
Dave (Mobile): How has Ian Anderson's stuff looked? 3 plus pitch type? And would you say he could be the braves best arm?
Kyle Glaser: I don't know if I'd say three plus, but two plus and another above-average sure. He probably has the highest ceiling but Allard and Soroka rank ahead of him right now
Joe (CT): Will Vlad Jr. be promoted to High A at some point this year? Also, do you see him sticking at 3B for the long-term?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, he'll be promoted to HiA. And he's capable of it, but will have to continue putting in work and managing his body to do it
Jack (New York): Did any dbacks like Duplantier or Marcus Wilson get any love?
Kyle Glaser: Need to see them keep it up over a longer period, but they are on our radar now after previously not being there
Mike (Tampa): Is this year make-or-break for Jorge Mateo as a prospect? Seems to be regressing fairly quickly at the plate.
Kyle Glaser: Third straight year at HiA and hitting .220. I think the make-or-break time may have passed
Jack (New York): How close was Dustin Fowler to making the list? He's younger than Clint Frazier and has outperformed him for about a year now. I know he doesn't project as well, but what is holding Fowler back?
Kyle Glaser: Another guy who was in discussion. Definitely on our radar and someone who has a good shot to be a midseason Top 100 guy
Steve (Chicago): Giolito has been off to a terrible start, and his velocity has taken a dip. What are the chances he ends up in the bullpen?
Kyle Glaser: Talking to pro scouts who have seen him - 95 percent
Wes (Wautoma, WI): I'm pumped to see Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr in person Saturday! If they keep the pace Vlad top 10 and Bo top 50 to start 2018?
Kyle Glaser: Not out of the question
Rob (Alaska): Can you elaborate on Carter Kieboom's profile? Will he stick at SS? Is he a high ceiling guy or more of a polished performer?
Kyle Glaser: Steady all around player who has the tools to stick at short. Ceiling isn't crazy high, but first-division regular is definitely in there
Jack (New York): Garrett Stubbs is the poster boy for stats not lining up with the scouting report, but at what point do we ignore the scouts on him? Does he have to display elite defense, power, the ability to hit for average, a 1:1 k:bb ratio, and elite speed for a catcher? Wait a minute... he already has?
Kyle Glaser: The scouts actually like him quite a bit. Elite defensive catcher, can hit any fastball. The scouting reports are good, the performance is good. Things line up nicely
Kenny (Ladera Ranch, CA): I know you mentioned that usually international prospects are place much lower in your rankings, but what about someone like Shohei Otani who has competed against high international talent. Where would he fall in your rankings as a pitcher, hitter or both?
Kyle Glaser: Otani would be a top 5 prospect. Maybe No. 1. Daisuke Matsuzaka was BA's No. 1 prospect in 2007, Yu Darvish was No. 4 in 2012, Masahiro Tanaka was No. 4 in 2014. Otani is the same league as those guys
Sal (Oakland, CA): Besides K rate, what other improvements should Franklin Barreto be making? He seems to be really producing at AAA Nashville, and continues to climb in the rankings.
Kyle Glaser: Needs to become more efficient with his speed. Was thrown out 36 pct of the time on SBs last year and is 3-for-6 in his career at Triple-A. That's a finishing school type thing, which is exactly what Triple-A is for.
Mike Hunt (Ocean): If Kyle Tucker keeps up this pace how long before he gets promoted to AA and where would he end up on the list?
Kyle Glaser: He'd be promoted around the All-Star break. He's already No. 15 and the guys ahead of him are mostly performing too. Possible he gets to 10 with some graduations
Kyle Glaser: All right everybody, that will do it for me today. Thanks for chatting, look forward to next time