Triple-A Pitchers Who Have Seen The Largest Velocity Jumps & Declines So Far In 2025
Image credit: Cole Henry (Photo by Chris Arjoon/Getty Images)
It’s simple, but it’s true: If you find a way to throw harder as a pitcher, you’re more likely to be effective. Now three starts into the 2025 season for many Triple-A pitchers, there’s enough data to see who is throwing harder—and who’s seen a decline in their velocity.
This is an early-season snapshot, so there’s plenty of caveats to apply. For example, it’s cold in many parts of the country for a lot of these outings, and some pitchers may be working back from spring injuries or aches and pains.
That said, here is a look at some notable velocity improvements and declines in the very early going.
Notable Velocity Gainers
Cole Henry, RHP, Nationals (+3 mph)
The Nationals’ No. 22 prospect coming into the season, Henry has struggled to stay healthy, battling an elbow injury and thoracic outlet syndrome. But early on this season, he’s sitting at 95 mph, back in the range that made him a second-round pick in 2020 out of LSU. Not coincidentally, the 25-year-old was just called up to make his first MLB appearance.
Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs (+2 mph)
This isn’t much of a surprise, as Horton’s velocity is back to its 2023 form. He had a lat injury in 2024 that cost him one or two ticks. Now he’s back in pre-injury form, which is encouraging for the Cubs.
Blade Tidwell, RHP, Mets (+2 mph)
Tidwell sat at 95 mph in 2024, which is already quite solid for a starter, but he’s found another gear in the early going this season. So far, he’s sitting 96-97 with his four-seamer. The results haven’t matched the stuff yet, but it is an encouraging development.
A.J. Blubaugh, RHP, Astros (+1 mph)
Blubaugh threw a 92-93 mph four-seamer in 2024. In his 2025 opener, he sat at 94 mph and touched 96-97 in a very impressive first start. His velocity dipped in his second start and he struggled, but he then sat 94-95 in a dominating third start.
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates (+1 mph)
We’ve written recently about Chandler touching 101.5 mph in his most recent start. That wasn’t a fluke, as he’s topped 100 mph on six occasions so far in 2025 after never touching triple digits in 2023 or 2024. His average fastball velocity has picked up, as well. He sat 97 mph in his lowest-velocity start and was at 99 in most recent start. He’s now one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers in the game.
Chase Dollander, RHP, Rockies (+1 mph)
Dollander was already a flame-thrower in 2024, sitting at 96 mph in most starts. He’s added a touch more velocity this year, sitting at 97 and generally getting extremely close to triple digits.
Zebby Matthews, RHP, Twins (+1 mph)
Matthews’ velocity has been on a continual climb since the Twins drafted him. He sat in the low 90s as a starter in college but with the ability to touch 97 mph as a reliever. He sat at 93-94 in 2023, then bumped up to sitting 95-96 in 2024. This year, he’s been able to sit at 97 and touch 99, showing the ability to maintain velocities that he could only scrape to reach just a few years ago.
Below, you’ll find the complete list of Triple-A pitchers who have seen a 1 mph or larger jump on their average four-seam fastball velocity in 2025.
This data is, by its nature, a bit noisy. Some pitchers may have changed approaches, which means a pitcher who relied on four-seamers in 2024 and largely throws sinkers now (or vice versa) may be looking at a very small number of pitches to base an average on. Similarly, pitchers who have changed roles from the rotation to the bullpen may show a velocity jump that comes with pitching in shorter stints.
| player | 2025 avg velo | 2024 avg velo | difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Segura, Enrique | 94 | 91 | 4 |
| La Sorsa, Joe | 94 | 91 | 4 |
| Furtado, Hunter | 94 | 91 | 3 |
| Kirby, Devin | 88 | 84 | 3 |
| Drohan, Shane | 94 | 91 | 3 |
| Henry, Cole | 95 | 92 | 3 |
| Benitez, Keyner | 96 | 92 | 3 |
| Barlow, Joe | 95 | 92 | 3 |
| Mendez, Julio | 94 | 91 | 3 |
| Simpson, Josh | 95 | 92 | 3 |
| Wilson, Paul | 94 | 91 | 3 |
| Kent, Zak | 94 | 91 | 3 |
| Stanifer, Gage | 95 | 92 | 3 |
| Garces, Jose | 95 | 92 | 3 |
| Flores, Eminen | 95 | 92 | 2 |
| Lopez, Jacob | 91 | 88 | 2 |
| Moreta, Edgar | 94 | 91 | 2 |
| Horton, Cade | 96 | 94 | 2 |
| Flatt, Danny | 92 | 90 | 2 |
| Junk, Janson | 95 | 93 | 2 |
| Fabian, Samuel | 94 | 92 | 2 |
| Blalock, Bradley | 96 | 94 | 2 |
| Gillaspie, Logan | 96 | 94 | 2 |
| Hebbert, Duque | 92 | 90 | 2 |
| Rolison, Ryan | 93 | 91 | 2 |
| Cox, Austin | 92 | 91 | 2 |
| Plymell, Chase | 93 | 92 | 2 |
| Spivey, Carter | 94 | 92 | 2 |
| Watson, Michael | 92 | 90 | 2 |
| Aracena, Wellington | 99 | 97 | 2 |
| Martinez, Liomar | 93 | 91 | 2 |
| Cota, Irving | 93 | 91 | 2 |
| Tidwell, Blade | 97 | 95 | 2 |
| Reynoso, Juan | 95 | 93 | 2 |
| White, Brendan | 93 | 92 | 2 |
| Amendt, Kyle | 92 | 90 | 2 |
| Rocha, Liam | 90 | 88 | 2 |
| Tineo, Riskiel | 94 | 93 | 2 |
| Fellows, Drake | 93 | 92 | 2 |
| Milbrandt, Karson | 96 | 94 | 2 |
| Brnovich, Kyle | 93 | 91 | 2 |
| Hoglund, Gunnar | 94 | 92 | 2 |
| Solesky, Chase | 92 | 90 | 2 |
| Peoples, Ben | 96 | 94 | 2 |
| Perez, Michael | 95 | 93 | 2 |
| Torres Jr., Lenny | 97 | 95 | 2 |
| Adon, Joan | 95 | 94 | 2 |
| Peguero, Joel | 99 | 98 | 2 |
| Olivárez, Helcris | 97 | 96 | 2 |
| Baum, Tyler | 97 | 95 | 2 |
| Elder, Bryce | 93 | 91 | 2 |
| Marsh, Chandler | 95 | 93 | 2 |
| Blubaugh, AJ | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Waldrep, Hurston | 96 | 94 | 1 |
| Boushley, Caleb | 90 | 89 | 1 |
| Gibson, Cade | 91 | 90 | 1 |
| McGee, Easton | 93 | 91 | 1 |
| Burdi, Nick | 97 | 95 | 1 |
| Fisher, Braydon | 95 | 94 | 1 |
| Highfill, Sam | 92 | 91 | 1 |
| Dobbins, Hunter | 96 | 95 | 1 |
| Dodd, Dylan | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Clarke, Taylor | 95 | 94 | 1 |
| Teran, Saul | 93 | 92 | 1 |
| Dobnak, Randy | 92 | 91 | 1 |
| Robberse, Sem | 92 | 91 | 1 |
| Mikolajchak, Nick | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Ramírez, Yohan | 96 | 95 | 1 |
| McGreevy, Michael | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Grammes, Conor | 95 | 94 | 1 |
| Wynne, Randy | 90 | 89 | 1 |
| Guerra, Daniel | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Sequera, Leonel | 94 | 92 | 1 |
| Beck, Tristan | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Hill, Jaden | 98 | 97 | 1 |
| Castillo, Diego | 97 | 96 | 1 |
| Gomez, Michael | 93 | 92 | 1 |
| Houser, Adrian | 95 | 93 | 1 |
| Matthews, Zebby | 97 | 96 | 1 |
| Bosiokovic, Jacob | 97 | 95 | 1 |
| Kravetz, Evan | 91 | 89 | 1 |
| Rosario, Raymon | 92 | 91 | 1 |
| Chandler, Bubba | 98 | 97 | 1 |
| Dollander, Chase | 97 | 96 | 1 |
| Brink, Nick | 93 | 92 | 1 |
| Stumbo, Peyton | 92 | 91 | 1 |
| Harding, Houston | 90 | 89 | 1 |
| Yean, Eddy | 96 | 95 | 1 |
| Lazar, Max | 95 | 93 | 1 |
| Contreras, Roansy | 96 | 95 | 1 |
| Roa, Christian | 96 | 95 | 1 |
| Stasiowski, Tyler | 92 | 91 | 1 |
| MacLeod, Christian | 91 | 90 | 1 |
| Priester, Quinn | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Harrison, Kyle | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Young, Brandon | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Dana, Caden | 95 | 94 | 1 |
| Agnos, Zach | 96 | 95 | 1 |
| Wiles, Nathan | 93 | 92 | 1 |
| Weiss, Zack | 94 | 93 | 1 |
| Hughes, Brandon | 93 | 92 | 1 |
| Hayes, Titan | 97 | 96 | 1 |
Notable Velocity Decliners
John McMillon, RHP, Phillies (-4 mph)
McMillon made 10 effective appearances in the Marlins’ bullpen last season. He was claimed off waivers by the Phillies and then dropped from the 40-man roster. McMillon’s velocity drop is largely because of an April 1 appearance in which he sat at 90 mph. He was placed on the development list the next day. A week later, he returned to the active roster and he sat at 94 and touched 97, so this looks like an early-season blip.
Logan Evans, RHP, Mariners (-2 mph)
Evans was one of the notable velocity gainers in 2024. He’s largely shifted to throwing a sinker in the early going in 2025, but he’s also not throwing as hard as he did last year. He topped out at 93.8 mph in his first start, 94.6 in his second and 95.1 in his third. Last year, he touched 98 mph and sat at 94-95 with both his sinker and four-seamer.
Caleb Kilian, RHP, Cubs (-2 mph)
Kilian made one start for Triple-A Iowa before being placed on the injured list, designated for assignment and eventually released. He touched 96.6 mph, but sat 93-94. Kilian touched 100 mph last year and sat around 95 mph.
Tobias Myers, RHP, Brewers (-2 mph)
Myers had a breakout season for the Brewers in 2024, going 9-6, 3.00 with 25 starts for the big league club. He’s working back from an oblique strain in the early season, so this is an understandable dip. He sat at 90-91 mph in his first rehab appearance and 92-93 in his second rehab start, so the trend lines are positive for him to get back to last year’s 93 mph average velocity.
Owen White, RHP, White Sox (-2 mph)
White was one of the players who bounced around DFA limbo during the offseason. After the Rangers dropped him off their 40-man roster in early January, he spent time with the Reds, Yankees and eventually White Sox, who have optioned him to Triple-A Charlotte while keeping him on the 40-man roster. White sat at 94 mph last year and touched 97 at his best while bouncing between the rotation and bullpen. This year, he’s starting full-time, but that’s not enough to completely explain his decline in velocity. His hardest pitch this year is 93.3 mph, which is a tick below what he sat at last year.
Below, you’ll find the complete list of Triple-A pitchers who have seen a 1 mph or larger decline in their average four-seam fastball velocity compared to last season. As noted above with the velo gainers, please keep in mind that this data can be a bit noisy for all the same reasons.
| player | 2025 avg velo | 2024 avg velo | difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson, A.J. | 85 | 89 | -4 |
| McMillon, John | 91 | 95 | -4 |
| Whorff, Jarret | 90 | 94 | -4 |
| García, Deivi | 92 | 95 | -4 |
| Gomber, Austin | 87 | 90 | -4 |
| Tamarez, Misael | 92 | 96 | -4 |
| Kennedy, Tyler | 92 | 96 | -3 |
| Pestana, Leonardo | 93 | 96 | -3 |
| Cronin, Declan | 91 | 94 | -3 |
| Chafin, Andrew | 89 | 92 | -3 |
| Chargois, JT | 92 | 95 | -3 |
| De Los Santos, Yerry | 93 | 96 | -3 |
| Gilbert, Tyler | 89 | 92 | -3 |
| Romero, Carlos | 91 | 93 | -3 |
| Gilbreath, Lucas | 90 | 92 | -3 |
| Milacki, Bobby | 91 | 93 | -3 |
| Moore, McKinley | 94 | 96 | -3 |
| Vanasco, Ricky | 93 | 95 | -3 |
| Cabrera, Génesis | 94 | 96 | -3 |
| Kuhnel, Joel | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| Jay, Tyler | 89 | 92 | -2 |
| O’Loughlin, Jack | 90 | 92 | -2 |
| White, Owen | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| Crismatt, Nabil | 88 | 90 | -2 |
| Gose, Anthony | 94 | 96 | -2 |
| Herget, Kevin | 90 | 93 | -2 |
| Simonelli, Anthony | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| Zuber, Tyler | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| Devenski, Chris | 91 | 93 | -2 |
| Phillips, Evan | 94 | 97 | -2 |
| Guzman, Carlos | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| Bragg, Kade | 91 | 93 | -2 |
| Lao, Sauryn | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| Hamilton, Ian | 95 | 97 | -2 |
| Clenney, Nolan | 91 | 93 | -2 |
| Mueth, Zander | 90 | 92 | -2 |
| Toussaint, Touki | 90 | 92 | -2 |
| Williams Jr., Chris | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| Murray, Jayden | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| McWilliams, Sam | 94 | 96 | -2 |
| Evans, Logan | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| Hartlieb, Geoff | 94 | 96 | -2 |
| Owens, Tyler | 94 | 96 | -2 |
| Day, Ernie | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| Paredes, Enoli | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| Mears, Nick | 95 | 97 | -2 |
| Brewer, Colten | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| Anderson, Justin | 94 | 96 | -2 |
| Kolek, Stephen | 94 | 96 | -2 |
| Bloss, Jake | 93 | 94 | -2 |
| Pestka, Drew | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| Eisert, Brandon | 89 | 90 | -2 |
| Farmer, Buck | 91 | 93 | -2 |
| Justice, Evan | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| Gonzalez, Domingo | 93 | 94 | -2 |
| Díaz, Alexis | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| McGough, Trey | 90 | 92 | -2 |
| Saucedo, Tayler | 90 | 91 | -2 |
| Mendez, Greiber | 91 | 92 | -2 |
| Dishmey, Eliazar | 93 | 95 | -2 |
| McCaughan, Darren | 88 | 90 | -2 |
| Yovan, Kenyon | 92 | 94 | -2 |
| Myers, Tobias | 92 | 93 | -2 |
| Willingham, Amos | 94 | 95 | -2 |
| Ryan, Ryder | 93 | 94 | -2 |
| Kilian, Caleb | 94 | 95 | -2 |
| Danner, Hagen | 94 | 96 | -1 |
| King, Justin | 95 | 96 | -1 |
| Seymour, Carson | 94 | 95 | -1 |
| Clode, Jesus | 90 | 91 | -1 |
| Sublette, Ryan | 94 | 95 | -1 |
| Chirino, Harold | 95 | 96 | -1 |
| Rudd, Carson | 92 | 94 | -1 |
| Choi, Hyun-il | 89 | 91 | -1 |
| Elissalt, Frank | 95 | 96 | -1 |
| Hamel, Dom | 92 | 93 | -1 |
| Corcoran, Billy | 88 | 90 | -1 |
| Shreve, Chasen | 89 | 90 | -1 |
| Balazovic, Jordan | 93 | 94 | -1 |
| Acosta, Daison | 94 | 95 | -1 |
| Hudson, Dakota | 89 | 91 | -1 |
| Foley, Jason | 96 | 97 | -1 |
| Lawrence, Casey | 86 | 88 | -1 |
| Vega, Alfred | 91 | 93 | -1 |
| Winans, Allan | 88 | 90 | -1 |
| Reyzelman, Eric | 95 | 96 | -1 |
| Bickford, Phil | 92 | 93 | -1 |
| Fujinami, Shintaro | 96 | 97 | -1 |
| González, Luis | 91 | 93 | -1 |
| Anderson, Ryan | 89 | 90 | -1 |
| Rice, Jake | 92 | 93 | -1 |
| Poteet, Cody | 92 | 93 | -1 |
| De La Cruz, Juan | 91 | 92 | -1 |
| Brewer, Hoss | 93 | 94 | -1 |
| Shugart, Chase | 95 | 96 | -1 |
| Herrera, Yordy | 91 | 92 | -1 |
| Frías, Luis | 94 | 95 | -1 |
| Adams, Travis | 93 | 95 | -1 |
| Benschoter, Sam | 93 | 94 | -1 |
| Liranzo, Jesús | 95 | 97 | -1 |
| Tyler, Kyle | 90 | 91 | -1 |
| Webb, Jacob | 92 | 94 | -1 |
| Curry, Xzavion | 90 | 91 | -1 |
| Díaz, Yilber | 95 | 96 | -1 |
| Ynfante, Nelfy | 92 | 93 | -1 |
| Schoenwetter, Cole | 92 | 93 | -1 |
| Harris, Hobie | 94 | 95 | -1 |
| Little, Jack | 93 | 94 | -1 |
| Misiaszek, Andrew | 91 | 92 | -1 |
| Anderson, Grant | 91 | 93 | -1 |
| Ragsdale, Carson | 93 | 94 | -1 |
| Helvey, Clay | 93 | 94 | -1 |
| Anderson, Nick | 94 | 95 | -1 |
| Ingram, Kolton | 91 | 92 | -1 |
| Yanez, Gabriel | 89 | 90 | -1 |
| Boyer, Ryan | 90 | 91 | -1 |
| Rodriguez, Chris | 94 | 95 | -1 |
