Rule 5 Draft Picks Most Likely & Least Likely To Stick With MLB Teams In 2025
Image credit: Noah Murdock (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
Now that the dust has settled on the 2024 Rule 5 draft, we’ll take a look at which selections from this year’s edition are the most and least likely to stick to stick with their new clubs in 2025.
SEE ALSO: Complete Rule 5 Draft Results
It’s one thing for a player to earn his opportunity to be selected in the Rule 5 draft, but the goal is to stick in the majors for the entire season with your new franchise. This year’s draft featured some picks with a high likelihood to stick and others with some questionable skills when it comes to being considered major league-ready.
Let’s take a look at the names on both ends of the spectrum.
Players Most Likely To Stick
Shane Smith, RHP, White Sox
Selected From: Brewers
Why He Might Stick: Smith was the top pick in the Rule 5 draft this year and has a good pitch mix led by a cut fastball. He has both solid upper-minors experience and production.
Noah Murdock, RHP, Athletics
Selected From: Royals
Why He Might Stick: Murdock has good stuff but below-average command. Despite the command issues, he had a strong showing with Triple-A Omaha in 2024. Murdock has major league-level bullpen stuff and the A’s have a recent track record of Rule 5 picks sticking.
Scouting Reports For All MLB 15 Picks In The 2024 Rule 5 Draft
Baseball America provides detailed breakdowns for each player selected in the MLB phase of the 2024 Rule 5 draft.
Evan Reifert, RHP, Nationals
Selected From: Rays
Why He Might Stick: 2023 was a down year for Reifert, as he dealt with command woes. He bounced back in a big way in 2024, however, making 35 appearances for Double-A Montgomery and pitching to a 1.96 ERA with a 40.4% strikeout rate. Reifert’s stuff is good, and he’s had upper-minors success, giving him an excellent shot to stick in the Nationals’ bullpen.
Cooper Bowman, 2B/OF, Reds
Selected From: Athletics
Why He Might Stick: Bowman has a well-rounded profile with plus speed, solid plate skills and power. He also has ability to play second base, center field and shortstop in a pinch. The Reds don’t have many backup infielders on their current roster, and Bowman could fit nicely as a utility player seeing time all over the field.
Connor Thomas, LHP, Brewers
Selected From: Cardinals
Why He Might Stick: The Brewers have shown they can work wonders with their pitching development. Thomas has excellent command and a sinker/slider mix the team could improve.
Players Least Likely To Stick
Angel Bastardo, RHP, Blue Jays
Selected From: Red Sox
Why He Might Not Stick: Bastardo had Tommy John surgery in the middle of 2024 and will likely miss most of 2025. It’s tough to bet on a player who, though he has good stuff, has not had much experience above High-A.
Liam Hicks, C, Marlins
Selected From: Tigers
Why He Might Not Stick: Hicks has strong plate skills but well below-average power and isn’t an outstanding defensive catcher. Hicks will hit for average, but there’s little impact in the profile.
Gage Workman, 3B, Cubs
Selected From: Tigers
Why He Might Not Stick: Workman has big tools to dream on, but he’s been slow to develop. There are still very-questionable plate skills, too, which will likely be exploited by big league pitchers.
Eiberson Castellano, RHP, Twins
Selected From: Phillies
Why He Might Not Stick: Castellano had a breakout season in 2024, leading to a bit of buzz heading into the Rule 5 draft. While it’s possible he could stick with the Twins, he’s up against a fairly deep group.
