These 26-And-Under AL First Basemen Could Be Ready To Break Out In 2025
Image credit: Ben Rice (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
In-season breakouts are always tricky to navigate, particularly on the hitting side. What appears to be a surge in power might be a random distribution of batted-ball outcomes. A barrage of hits in a small sample could be nothing more than BABIP noise. It’s easy to dismiss most hot-starting hitters, but every once in a while, a player like Tyler Soderstrom comes along.
In that same spirit of evaluating breakout American League first basemen, let’s check in on three more names who are off to strong starts in 2025: Ben Rice, Kyle Manzardo, and Spencer Torkelson.
Ben Rice, Yankees (Age: 26)
A 12th-round pick in 2021, Rice has come to embody the Yankees’ player development philosophy: Take good swings and do damage.
Through his first 70 or so plate appearances with the Yankees last season, Rice launched five home runs and showed promising plate discipline. A three-homer game on July 6 seemed to validate the belief he had arrived.
From that point forward, however, Rice was one of the least productive hitters in the majors. His strikeout rate spiked, raising questions about whether the power was worth the tradeoff.
This is where it helps to zoom out during the offseason and avoid overreacting to the most recent data points. Despite his struggles, Rice still posted a top 20 barrel-per-plate appearance rate as a rookie. The season-long strikeout rate was elevated, but a strong walk rate kept his xwOBA in a more forgiving range.
Notably, Rice had no history of extreme swing-and-miss issues. He never came close to a 30% strikeout rate in the minors, finishing his MiLB career with a 19% mark. This helps us buy into his 23% rate for 2025 at a point when it begins stabilizing. Even with a slight uptick, the quality of his contact more than offsets it.
Among hitters with at least 100 balls in play last season, Rice had the largest negative gap between xwOBA and actual wOBA. He’s only getting everyday reps now because of Giancarlo Stanton’s elbow ailments, but so far, he’s capitalizing with some of the best batted-ball metrics in MLB to start the year.
Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (Age: 24)
Manzardo had a monstrous Opening Day, collecting three extra-base hits (including a homer) and driving in four runs.
He’s added three more homers since, but enters Thursday slashing just .140/.274/.320 over that stretch. While he’s slightly underperforming his power metrics, it’s still important to recognize that this line marks an improvement from last season:
Dating back to his time as a Rays prospect, Manzardo was never known for loud batted-ball impact. That’s put more pressure on his ability to control the strike zone, a skill that’s long been a strength. He walked at a 15% clip in the minors, but posted just a 6% walk rate during his 2024 debut. A near-immediate correction in 2025 suggests he’s capable of adapting at the big league level.
Though he’s never profiled as a pure power hitter, Manzardo has consistently shown a knack for barreling the baseball. Now in his second year with the Guardians, he’s chasing less while simultaneously increasing his in-zone swing rate. As a result, his barrel rate has nearly doubled from last season’s 9.5% mark.
Perhaps Opening Day gave the impression that a breakout was imminent. In reality, Manzardo has traded some in-zone contact for better swing decisions and more authoritative contact. It’s not a full breakout just yet, but the foundation is forming.
Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (Age: 25)
Raw power has never been an issue for Torkelson, but the expectations that come with being a former 1-1 pick have left us wanting more as he settles into his fourth big league season.
He’s already tallied six home runs in 2025, fueled in part by pulling the ball in the air more consistently:
It’s still early. Flyball rate and other batted-ball metrics take longer than swing decisions to stabilize, but the trend is encouraging. As discussed with Soderstrom, pulling the ball in the air is the most reliable path to in-game power for most players. That’s especially true when you play half your games at Comerica Park.
Torkelson’s plate discipline is also shifting. A rising walk rate is a welcome development, but it’s been paired with more strikeouts. That’s a trade-off worth watching. So far, his swing rate is down slightly. He’s making pitchers work more, and when he connects, the results are loud.
There’s a version of Torkelson that still lives up to his draft pedigree, even if it comes in the form of a three-true-outcomes slugger rather than a complete hitter. The early signs point toward that trajectory, but as with any April breakout, sustained gains will be the true test.
