Scouting Reports For All 15 MLB Picks In The 2024 Rule 5 Draft

1. White Sox — Shane Smith, RHP, Brewers

Smith pitched sparingly at Wake Forest due to Tommy John surgery before signing with the Brewers as an undrafted free agent in 2021. At 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, the 24-year-old threw a career-high 94.1 innings in 2024, posting a 3.05 ERA with 113 strikeouts and 29 walks (mostly for Double-A Biloxi along with five relief outings for Triple-A Nashville). Smith split time between starting and the bullpen, pitching off a fastball that sits 92-96 mph and can reach 98. He mixes in an average curveball and slider, a repertoire that likely plays better in short relief outings than having to get through a lineup multiple times.

Chances To Stick: Excellent, as the White Sox can use plenty of young talent.

2. Marlins — Liam Hicks, C, Tigers

Hicks had a standout showing in the AFL in 2023 and was acquired by the Tigers in the trade for Carson Kelly. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills and approach but well below-average power. The Marlins see his bat as MLB ready and believe his glove can be suitable for a backup catching role.

Chances To Stick: Modest. It’s hard for catchers to be carried all season. The last true catchers to stick on the roster all season were 2016 picks Luis Torrens and Stuart Turner.

Rule 5 Draft Picks Most Likely & Least Likely To Stick

With the 2024 Rule 5 draft in the books, Geoff Pontes suggests players with the best and worst odds to stick with their new clubs in 2025.

SEE THE LIST

3. Angels — Garrett McDaniels, LHP, Dodgers

McDaniels is a lefty with a four-pitch mix including a pair of fastballs shapes, a slider and a curveball. McDaniels sits 92-94 mph on both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs, mixing his gyro slider at 86-88 and curve. McDaniels spent the majority of the season in High-A and has only three career innings above A-ball. He has fringe-average control.

Chances To Stick: Modest. As a lefty with four pitches, McDaniels has a chance, but the jump from Class-A to the majors is hard to pull off.

4. Athletics — Noah Murdock, RHP, Royals

The Royals landed Murdock in the seventh round of the 2019 draft out of Virginia. After three seasons as a starter, the organization moved him into a long relief role in 2023. Entering 2024, Murdock’s role evolved once again, seeing more traditional three-to-five-out relief appearances. Over 46 outings—30 of which came in Triple-A—Murdock amassed a 3.16 ERA, 3.51 FIP, .196 opponents average against and 72 strikeouts over 62.2 innings. Murdock had 34 scoreless outings this season, including a 20-inning scoreless streak that spanned 14 outings from May 17 to June 29. Murdock mixes three pitches in a sinker, slider and cutter, all of which rate as above-average per Stuff+ metrics. Murdock’s fastball is a true sinker that sits 95-97 mph, touching 98 at peak. The pitch had a 70% groundball rate in 2024, and it allowed Murdock to limit extra base hits and damage. Murdock’s primary secondary is a low-to-mid-80s sweeper sitting 83-84 with 11 to 12 inches of sweep. His third pitch is an upper-80s cutter that sees increased usage against lefthanded hitters and generates above-average whiff rates for a cutter. Murdock does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark and primarily on the ground. He was nearly unhittable for rigthanded hitters in 2024, as they posted a .162/.297/.200 slash line (per Synergy Sports) against him. Lefthanders fared better but still only slugged .361 on the season. Murdock’s ability to drive both ground balls and whiffs during his time in the high minors made him a logical Rule 5 pick.        

Chances To Stick: Excellent. Murdock was one of the better available arms. He has upper-level MiLB experience and present stuff. And he’s joining a team that is still in a rebuild.

5. Nationals — Evan Reifert, RHP, Rays

The Nationals are rolling the dice by picking Reifert. In 2022, Reifert had an excellent season that ended with a dominating performance in the Arizona Fall League. At the time, it wasn’t outlandish to think that he could pitch in the Rays’ bullpen in 2023. Instead, Reifert completely lost his feel for the strike zone. He was shut down after walking eight in just four innings with High-A Bowling Green, while a later stint with the FCL Rays was no better, as he walked seven in 3.2 innings. Reifert bounced back to dominate at Double-A Montgomery in 2024, going 2-0, 1.96 with a 40% strikeout rate. His under-the-hood stuff isn’t as impressive, as he’s a slider-heavy reliever without a clear wipeout pitch. His fastball sits at 94-95 mph, and his slider sits in the 83-85 range. He’s been successful when he’s healthy and throwing strikes, but he often struggles to check those two boxes..

Chances To Stick: It could happen, and if it does, he could end up as one of the best picks in this draft.

6. Blue Jays — Angel Bastardo, RHP, Red Sox

Bastardo will miss much of the 2025 season as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery he had midway through 2024. Before his injury, Bastardo posted excellent strikeout rates in Class-A with a four-pitch mix topped by a 92-97 mph fastball, though his control was a little shaky.

Chances To Stick: Modest. While a Tommy John surgery can cut down on the time needed on the MLB active roster, there are other challenges. If Bastardo doesn’t get to 90 days on the active MLB roster in 2025, he will have to continue to be carried on the active roster in 2026 until he reaches that 90 days. The hurdle of carrying a player on the 40-man roster for two offseasons can prove a challenge for these types of injury picks.

7. Reds — Cooper Bowman, 2B, Athletics

A fourth-round pick out of Louisville the Athletics acquired in the Frankie Montas trade with the Yankees, Bowman had a 14.4% in-zone whiff rate in 2024, showed some power and stole 43 bases. He was voted the best baserunner in the Texas League in BA’s Best Tools balloting. He hits lefties especially well, and he could compete for a spot in the Reds’ outfield. Second base has been his primary position in the minors, but he has played center field and may fit better there in Cincinnati.

Chances To Stick: Good. Bowman’s bat may fit in a limited role, but he has the versatility and speed to make a useful role player.

8. Rays — Nate Lavender, LHP, Mets

Lavender did not rank on the Mets Top 30 and had internal brace surgery in May. He is expected to miss at least half of 2025. The Rays were likely intrigued by Lavender’s outlier extension, which sat sat in the 7-foot-5 range in 2024. He mixes a low-90s fastball, a upper-70s slider and an upper-70s changeup.

Chances To Stick: Good. Lavender’s injury is perfectly timed from a roster rules perspective. He can begin the season on the 60-day injury list, go out for a MiLB rehab assignment and then join the big league club in time to fulfill 90 days on the active roster.

9. Twins — Eiberson Castellano, RHP, Phillies

Castellano was a pop-up prospect in the Phillies system in 2024. The righthander made 20 starts between High-A Jersey Shore and Double-A Reading, pitching to a 3.99 ERA with 136 strikeouts to 29 walks. Castellano made eight starts in Double-A and was just as effective in the Eastern League as he was in the South Atlantic League. Over eight starts in Double-A, Castellano struck out 30.9% of batters he faced while walking 5.6%. Castellano has good stuff too, sitting 94-95 mph as a starter with a slurvy low-80s curveball he shows advanced feel for and a changeup. Castellano has good stuff, a track record of performance and above-average control, all traits that made him a good Rule 5 target.

Chances To Stick: 50-50. The Twins have a pretty deep group of arms right now, but Castellano was viewed by multiple teams as one of the best available players for this year’s Rule 5.

10. Cubs — Gage Workman, 3B, Tigers

A fourth-round pick out of Arizona State in 2020, Workman is tooled up with raw power, above-average speed and defensive chops. The issue is he has below-average bat-to-ball skills and somewhat aggressive decisions. Workman had a good season with Double-A Erie, hitting .280/.366/.476 with 18 home runs and 30 stolen bases. The concern is that his step forward this year came in a third season at Erie.

Chances To Stick: Below-Average. Workman’s hitting has been a struggle since he was drafted. There’s a chance that his 2024 improvements are a leap forward and his defense will make him a useful utility man, but he’ll still have to hit.

11. Braves — Anderson Pilar, RHP, Marlins

 A minor league veteran of eight years, Pilar reached Triple-A for the first time in 2024. He jumped three levels in 2024 and made 37 appearances, pitching to a 2.64 ERA with 71 strikeouts across 58 innings. Pilar mixes a cut-fastball at 92-93 mph with a mid-80s sweeper, a two-seam fastball and a changeup. He generates both ground balls and whiffs at an above-average rate.

Chances To Stick: Low. He’ll be competing for a spot in the pen, but he’ll also be trying to stick on a team with two Rule 5 picks, which adds to the challenge.

12. Padres — Juan Nuñez, RHP, Orioles

Nuñez went down in May with a shoulder injury and missed the rest of 2024. He was acquired by the Orioles in the Jorge Lopez trade in 2022, and has pitched well during his time in Baltimore. Nuñez mixes a four-seam fastball at 93-94 mph with above-average ride and run, a mid-80s slider with moderate sweep, as well as a changeup and cutter.

Chances To Stick: Good. The Padres have had success getting Rule 5 picks to stick, and Nunez threw enough strikes to maybe pull off making the big jump to the majors.

13. Brewers — Connor Thomas, LHP, Cardinals

Thomas is a control-over stuff-lefthander who throws lost of strikes and had a nice season with Triple-A Memphis. His primary pitch is a mid-80s sweeper slider, which he mixes with a sinker at 89-91 mph, a low-80s changeup and a upper-80s cutter. Thomas doesn’t miss many bats, but he had a 53.1% groundball rate and 6.3% walk rate in 2024.

Chances To Stick: Control pitchers have better success rate than wild fireballers, but the Brewers are contenders, which means Thomas will have to prove he can make an contribution right away.

14. Rays— Mike Vasil, RHP, Mets

Once a highly-recruited prep righthander out of Massachusetts, Vasil spent a majority of the last two seasons in Triple-A, including all of 2024. This season, Vasil switched to a two-seam fastball as his primary fastball grip, moving away from the four-seamer he used heavily in 2023. This resulted in the best groundball rate of Vasil’s career. Despite this evolution, Vasil’s results were poor. Over 27 starts and a pair of relief appearances, Vasil pitched to a 6.04 ERA and 5.11 xFIP, as opponents hit .287 against him. Despite the poor numbers, teams might find a few things attractive about Vasil’s profile. First, he mixes six different pitches in a two-seamer, four-seamer, cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. Second, his stuff is above-average and might play up in a relief role. Third, Vasil has a deep arsenal, as he threw those six different pitches 250 or more times in 2024. A team might view shortening his arsenal to three to four core pitches in certain situations as low-hanging fruit. Finally, Vasil has shown durability, throwing 120 or more innings in each of the last two seasons, which gives him the ability to handle a variety of roles. Vasil struggles against lefties, but he did show the ability to get outs against them with his curveball this season. A greater emphasis on the pitch could lead to improved splits in 2025 and beyond. Vasil was drafted by the Phillies but then traded to the Rays for cash considerations.

Chances To Stick: Good. Vasil’s pitch mix may be simplified as he makes the jump, but he’s experienced with stuff that seems better than the results.

15. Braves — Christian Cairo, SS, Guardians

The son of former MLB player Miguel Cairo, Christian is a strong defender who’s seen time all over the infield. He’s a contact and approach hitter due to well below-average raw power.

Chances To Stick: Below-Average. Cairo will be one of two Rule 5 picks trying to make the Braves’ 26-man roste, and he’ll be competing with a couple of other potential utility infielders.