Roman Anthony, Bryce Rainer Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (April 29)

10 Statcast Standouts

Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox

When evaluating a player’s potential for home run power, my go-to metric is Air EV, which is the average exit velocity on balls hit with at least a 20 degree launch angle. Hitting a ball over 100 mph with at least that much loft is the combination of exit velocity and launch angle that leads to home runs.

Anthony’s average exit velocity on fly balls is 101.3 mph. That’s easily the best among Triple-A batters with Anthony still being one of the youngest hitters in the league. For reference, Aaron Judge is averaging 95.6 mph on his fly balls. This does not suggest that Anthony has superior power to Judge, as his performance is against vastly inferior pitching, but it underscores how incredible the number is.

If you just glanced at this chart, the second thing that would jump out at you is the very poor contact on pitches out of the zone (labeled Chase Contact). Anthony almost never chases, however, so these are incredibly small samples. For example, he’s chased precisely four breaking balls and 11 sliders out of the zone. The more salient metric here is his slugging on contact with pitches out of the zone, which shows us he’s still doing damage on pitches he shouldn’t swing at.

The other surface flaw would be the low zone-swing rate, especially against fastballs. For many prospects, this can be exploited at the major league level. For a player with Anthony’s elite power, though, it’s not so simple as “throw it in the zone and hope he doesn’t swing”. Risking a hittable pitch in the zone is risking a home run. Pitchers will still pitch carefully, which suits a passive approach.

There’s one more aspect that looks like a weakness on the surface, but might actually be a strength. Anthony’s zone contact is slightly below major league average. However, his zone contact against fastballs is 94.4%, which is well above the major league average. This means there is no easy path for major league pitchers to get him out. Try to sneak a fastball by him? Better get it far out of the zone or he’s going to crush it. Get him to chase a breaking ball? He’ll spit on it. Drop a non-fastball in the zone and hope? Perhaps.

While I personally believe Sebastian Walcott is the best prospect in baseball, Anthony’s surface stats and underlying metrics point to an absolute superstar who is extremely deserving of his Top 100 Prospects ranking.

Bryce Rainer, SS, Tigers

Evaluating high school players is really hard. The biggest variable is the question of how their hit tools will translate to professional pitching. Other variables include plate discipline and swing decisions, as the quality of pitching is vastly superior in Single-A than it is in high school.

The early metrics for Rainer are incredible. We use the term “eye-popping” quite often. Indeed, when I pulled up Rainer’s card, it felt like my my eyes would literally pop out.

In his first taste of pro ball, Rainer is absolutely mashing the baseball. His exit velocity metrics—including a 114 mph max EV registered in his Spring Breakout game—point to 70-grade raw power. I’d love to see those launch angles tick up to at least the low teens.

Rainer’s plate discipline is remarkable, and he has yet to chase a slider, curve or sweeper out of the zone in the early going. He’s passive in zone overall but aggressive against fastballs and cutters in the zone, which suggests strong pitch recognition.

The zone contact rate could use some improvement, but his overall contact rates are above-average and point to a batter with more than enough bat-to-ball to make the plus-plus power play. Rainer has an incredibly high ceiling and is rapidly playing himself into consideration as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Shortstops with this kind of power are exceedingly rare.

Konnor Griffin, OF, Pirates

Griffin has demonstrated that he can make more than enough contact to let his power play. His contact metrics are broadly similar to Rainer’s, with the exception that his average exit velocities, both on the ground and in the air, are underwhelming. Some would interpret that as a potential red flag, but I lean more towards high-end exit velocities and slugging on contact as the more predictive measures for such a young hitter.

The Jackson Holliday high school draft class was broadly considered one of the best in recent memory, but the duo of Rainer and Griffin might end up much better.

Andrew Salas, SS/2B/OF, Marlins

Salas caught the cold, calculating eyes of RoboScout. He’s showing an extremely advanced approach for a 17-year-old, but we’ll need to see some massive growth in the power department. I’m skeptical of the surface stats given the power metrics, as that’s a difficult combination of skills to make work at the higher levels of baseball. He’s got a lot of time to build up strength and bat speed, and if that comes, he could be a very intriguing prospect.

Axiel Plaz, C, Pirates

Plaz has the highest 90th percentile exit velocity of any batter in Low-A, just ahead of Bryce Rainer. He has an aggressive approach, which he makes work by making a lot of contact on pitches he chases.

Last year, Plaz had an optimized approach, getting great launch angles but struggling to make enough contact. This year, he’s more line-drive oriented and much more aggressive, which has boosted his contact rates and exit velocities. However, he’s not lifting the ball nearly as much.

If Plaz can somehow find the sweet spot between his 2024 approach and what he’s doing in 2025, this could be the next Agustin Ramirez-type of catching prospect who flies under the radar for a while before establishing himself as a big-time bat.

Raimon Gomez, RHP, Mets

Gomez threw 16 pitches harder than 102 mph, including eight that topped 103 and one that maxed out at 104.5 mph.

Some of those fastballs registered IVBs above 20, which would give the pitch great velocity and great shape. His fastball averaged 101.8 mph and got about 1.5 inches of vertical ride above what a typical fastball would get given that velocity and release height. He had a similar performance the week before, as well, so there’s growing evidence this is a sustainable level of play for Gomez.

The command is still shaky, but this is an elite fastball from a stuff perspective, and it would be good enough to compete with in the majors right now.

Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers

Misiorowski’s flaw coming into this season was throwing strikes. Last week, he pitched 11 innings and struck out 17 while issuing just one walk. He’s made a few subtle changes from 2024 to 2025:

• Dialed back the average fastball velocity from 98 to 97 mph, with the same max of 100.8. This should keep him healthier and allow for more command. The pitch is still plus-plus from a stuff perspective, with elite extension and above average ride given the slot.
• Dropped the cutter from the arsenal, as he wasn’t able to command the pitch last year (26% zone rate). Also dropped the old gyro slider.
• Upped the usage of the fastball to 65%.
• Throwing a new slider/cutter as an in-zone pitch. It’s similar to last year’s cutter, but has more ride and is clearly easier for him to throw for strikes.
• The curveball is largely the same, but he’s reduced its usage in favour of the new slider/cutter.
• Added a changeup, but we only have three pitches worth of data for it.

If the improved command sticks, he’ll be up with the Brewers very soon.

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox

Mayer, who topped this week’s Hot Sheet, does everything well, with most of his metrics around the major league average other than his plus raw power. That can sometimes feel like a boring profile, but a shortstop with average tools and plus raw power adds up to a potential 3-4 win player at the big league level. He doesn’t have anywhere near the upside of Worcester teammate Roman Anthony, but he looks more than ready to step into a major league role right now.

Alex Freeland, SS, Dodgers

Freeland’s surface level stats are very good for a shortstop, as he’s slashing .309/.382/.473 with a wRC+ of 119. However, his 29% strikeout rate is a little worrisome and is in line with his subpar zone contact rates.

Compared to last year, Freeland’s traded quite a bit of bat-to-ball contact ability for an uptick in exit velocities. It’s likely an intentional trade off, so he may need some adjustment time. Time will tell which version of Freeland will have more long-term success. I believe the 2024 version with plus-plus swing decisions, average power and contact was more likely to succeed, but there is merit in rolling the dice and hoping that the contact skills will catch up. The contact quality results certainly back up the changes, as they do substantially raise his ceiling.

Aroon Escobar, 2B/3B , Phillies

Escobar is hitting .369/.481/.631 in the early going, good for a wRC+ north of 200, with metrics that scream, “This dude is legit.” Escobar might be a plus hitter or better across the board, with plus-plus swing decisions, plus-plus contact skills and plus raw power that might play as average, given the launch angles. The only flaw in his game is the groundball rate. Outside of that, this is about as good as it gets.