Roki Sasaki’s Most Likely Landing Spots, Latest Free Agency Buzz


Image credit: Roki Sasaki (Photo by Mary DeCicco/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
UPDATE #1: YES Network’s Jack Curry reports that the Yankees have been informed that Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them.
UPDATE #2: Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant reports tat the Rangers have been informed that Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them.
Every team in baseball wants Roki Sasaki.
At this point, most clubs know they’re no longer in the mix to sign him, but there are still several teams that think they have a shot.
The first date when Sasaki can officially sign is Jan. 15—the start of the 2025 international signing period—but it does not sound like Sasaki will sign on that date. It doesn’t sound like he will be informing clubs of a decision on where he’s signing by then, either, adding an extra layer of complexity for clubs throughout the international market. The deadline for Sasaki to sign is Jan. 23, the end of the 45-day window after he was posted, so the process won’t drag out long into the signing period.
Here’s the latest we’re hearing on the most likely landing spots for Sasaki, plus other details about what’s happening behind the scenes with his impending signing and what could happen after Jan. 15.
2025 International Bonus Board Top 100
Baseball America’s latest international prospects bonus board expands to 100 players in advance of the signing period beginning on Jan. 15.
Sasaki likely will command, at the minimum, a team’s entire bonus pool. Why wouldn’t he? Teams can trade for an additional 60% of their original bonus pool allotment, and it does sound like the team that signs Sasaki will probably trade up to pay him as much as possible.
Sasaki has all the leverage to make that happen. And any team would gladly pay Sasaki 160% of its pool given the massive discount it would be from his open market value. The price a team pays to get the extra bonus pool space might be higher than the typical market rate because of the urgency involved to make sure Sasaki gets signed.
One thing to watch: Will a team that wants to sign Sasaki preemptively trade for additional bonus pool space as soon as possible before Sasaki has even informed clubs about a decision? That might sound strange—such a club might not even end up signing Sasaki—but it could be a way for a team to show Sasaki how much it wants him and how all-in they are to do whatever it takes to get him to join their organization.
For a team to get to 160% of its original bonus pool, it’ll mean acquiring between $3-4 million of bonus pool space. That could require multiple trades to pull off, as most teams don’t have that much uncommitted pool space remaining. Acquiring that bonus pool space as soon as possible could be a way to show Sasaki, “Hey, we’ve got everything already lined up and ready to go if you pick us.”
It could also be a way for a team to try to stop the Latin American players it has commitments with from jumping ship and signing elsewhere. If the team signs Sasaki, those players would still probably sign somewhere else. But by acquiring the pool space as early as possible, the team can tell those players, we’ve already got this extra bonus pool space, so if we don’t sign Sasaki, we will give you a bigger bonus than we’ve already agreed to if you can stick with us until Jan. 23.
Lining up the field, these are the most likely destinations for Sasaki, with the bonus pool and potential maximum bonus offer for each club.
4. Texas Rangers
UPDATE: Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant reports that the Rangers have been informed that Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them.
Bonus Pool: $6,261,600
Maximum Potential Bonus: $10,018,560
There are other teams believed to still be lurking with the hopes of landing Sasaki, whether it’s the Cubs, Giants, Mariners or possibly another team. But if Sasaki does want to play on the West Coast, the Dodgers or Padres are probably more appealing than the Giants in terms of postseason readiness. The Mariners have one playoff appearance (2022) in the last 23 years and ownership that appears unwilling to spend much to change that. The Mets would seem to check a lot of boxes, but they now seem unlikely to sign Sasaki.
The Cubs haven’t been to the playoffs the last four seasons, but they can make a pitch that will change this year. They traded for a star outfielder in Kyle Tucker, though they dealt Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. They have two Japanese players who could help mentor Sasaki in lefthander Shota Imanaga and outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who shares an agent with Sasaki.
The Rangers have been angling to make a run at Sasaki for a long time. Typically one of the most aggressive teams in the international market and in play for the top prospects most years, the Rangers this year are conspicuously absent from the premium players in the 2025 class.
Will Sasaki pick the Rangers? Among Sasaki’s strongest suitors, the Rangers had the worst 2024 record (78-84), but they can point to their 2023 World Series rings for recent success and the emergence of young players like outfielders Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter and righthander Kumar Rocker as reasons to be better this year. They also signed Joc Pederson and traded for Jake Burger.
Is that enough to make the Rangers a playoff team in 2025? The fact that Sasaki met with the Rangers when the rest of the teams he’s known to have met with had better 2024 records is encouraging that Sasaki is at least interested. It just would be hard to call them the favorites at this point.
3. New York Yankees
UPDATE: YES Network’s Jack Curry reports that the Yankees have been informed that Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them.
Bonus Pool: $6,261,600
Maximum Potential Bonus: $10,018,560
The Yankees can offer Sasaki the chance to pitch in a big market where he can be a highly-marketable player to enhance his off-field earnings potential while playing for a team that just went to the World Series. Since our last update, the Yankees did not re-sign outfielder Juan Soto, but they signed lefthander Max Fried and traded for Bellinger and reliever Devin Williams. The Yankees should be one of the best teams in the AL this year, and signing Sasaki would give them an even better case as the top team in the league.
Would Sasaki want to pitch in New York? It’s not for everyone. Players from Asia, historically, often prefer to play on the West Coast. If a team can offer substantially more money on a major league free agent contract, that’s one thing, but in this case, the bonus each team can give Sasaki is pretty comparable. And if Sasaki doesn’t choose the Dodgers, the Yankees can offer more ownership stability than the Padres.
2. San Diego Padres
Bonus Pool: $6,261,600
Maximum Potential Bonus: $10,018,560
Most sources for the last couple of months have considered the Dodgers and Padres to be the most likely landing spots for Sasaki. We had them in the No. 2 spot in our last update.
What’s happened since then? Well, there’s a lawsuit among the Seidler family over control of the team. How much does that litigation and the Padres being in a place where they seem to no longer be spending on free agents affect Sasaki? I have no idea. It certainly can’t help.
Still, many sources believe the Padres and Dodgers are the most likely destinations for Sasaki. The Padres play on the West Coast, were a playoff team in 2024 and look poised to contend again this year. Sasaki could sign with the Dodgers, but he would have a disproportionately bigger impact for the Padres and join an already strong pitching staff with Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish.
For a player who’s taking a massive financial haircut to come to MLB now instead of waiting a couple years when he could have signed as a major league free agent exempt from the bonus pools, it’s not clear how much the difference of a couple million dollars in a signing bonus will matter to Sasaki. But if both the Dodgers and Padres trade up for a full 60% extra bonus pool space, San Diego can offer Sasaki $1,784,640 more than the Dodgers.
Perhaps Sasaki has long been intent on going to the Dodgers, as some in the industry believe. If there’s one person in baseball to bet on who could pull the right strings to change that, it’s Padres president A.J. Preller.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bonus Pool: $5,146,200
Maximum Potential Bonus: $8,233,920
We’ve heard since early last year that the Dodgers were the favorites to sign Sasaki if he were to make the jump to MLB this offseason. There are sources who think the Dodgers are going to sign Sasaki, and that everything else is just smoke and mirrors. Judging from the behavior of other clubs trying to sign Sasaki, those teams aren’t acting that way.
Our last update outlined the history and case for the Dodgers being the favorites, and we still have them as the most likely team for Sasaki. They’re the World Series champions, have been to the playoffs every year since 2013 and they have the talent on their major league roster with the farm system to keep that run going for the next half decade. They’re a West Coast team in the city with the largest Japanese population in the continental United States and have two other Japanese pitchers in their rotation with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With LA, Sasaki could pitch in a six-man rotation and play for a team that’s set up to help him maximize his endorsement earnings potential.
The Dodgers are tied with the Giants for the second-lowest bonus pool, so they won’t be able to offer Sasaki the highest signing bonus. Long term, though, signing with the Dodgers could be the move to maximize both his financial upside and chances to consistently compete for championships.