RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On June 16, 2024


Welcome to a very special Father’s Day Edition of RoboScout, where the robotic one honors the likes of Cool Papa Bell, Big Daddy Rick Reuschel, Ronald Acuña Sr. and Bossman Upton.

We’ve got nearly two weeks of DSL goodness. RoboScout has its optical sensors on a few new names–spoiler alert: a lot of Brewers–and has some Statcast data to help inform the ranks.

Please note this week’s data is only through Thursday’s games.

Let’s get to it.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive position or ability). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Dominican Summer League Hitters (min 15 PA)

1Jose AndersonMIL100100
2Luis PenaMIL9188
3Jaset MartinezCIN8185
4Richard MaticNYY8484
5Angel GuzmanSFG7684
6Yolfran CastilloTEX7283
7Eduardo RojasLAD7582
8Moises BolivarBOS7682
9Deinys GonzalezTBR8082
10Yeiferth CastilloCLE6882
11Ashly AndujarCOL8582
12Jesus MadeMIL7181
13Justin GonzalesBOS7081
14Adriander MejiaBAL6479
15Cesar LugoCHC6979
16Alirio FerrebusPHI7179
17Raily LirianoARI6477
18Iverson AllenPIT8377
19Elvin GarciaBAL6977
20Javier AcevedoPIT6576

Brewers prospect Jose Anderson’s four home runs are tied with Giants 18-year-old Angel Guzman for the DSL lead. Baseball America’s Ben Badler identified Anderson as a sleeper in Milwaukee’s 2024 international review. He noted Anderson’s good hit tool and emerging power. Well, the power has apparently arrived. The (current) center fielder has a barrel rate over 30% and a 90th percentile exit velocity that is plus for the league. The only concern we’re seeing right now is a chase rate over 30%. So far, that hasn’t hurt his production. There’s a very large gap between Anderson and the rest of the DSL class.

Brewers prospect Luis Pena is the second name on the list. Pena signed for $800,000 as a shortstop, but will likely slide over to third base. His 90th percentile exit velocity and contact rate are higher than Anderson’s and he’s also chipped in a league-leading 15 steals. However, he has only one home run this year.

If he had one more plate appearance, 16-year-old catcher Kevin Garcia–another Brewer–would have been in the top three on account of his three home runs in only 14 appearances. Unlike the other two names above, Garcia has a contact rate well below-average. Be prudent before bidding on his preposterous early-season dinger output.

I’d target Anderson, Pena, and last week’s callout Richard Matic (Yankees) in my ‘lottery ticket’ dynasty slot this week.

Complex League Hitters (min 30 PA)

1Eduardo QuinteroLAD95100
2Robert CalazCOL9698
3Starlyn CabaPHI9397
4Dameury PenaMIN9397
5Yeremi CabreraTEX10096
6Brailer GuerreroTBR8793
7Yoeilin CespedesBOS9193
8Pablo GuerreroTEX9792
9Larry MartinezTBR8491
10Edgleen PerezNYY7990
11Julio ZayasNYM8390
12Jeremy RodriguezNYM9690
13Eric BitontiMIL8689
14Lisbel DiazSFG8788
15Franyerber MontillaDET7787
16Alexander AlbertusLAD7587
17Aroon EscobarPHI7886
18Andruw MusettBOS7386
19Jhonny SeverinoPIT7785
20Franklin AriasBOS7485
21Luis ParababireATL7384
22Bryan AcunaMIN7684
23Eduardo TaitPHI8883
24Junior GarciaATL8183
25Walker JenkinsMIN6983

Robert Calaz (Rockies) and Yeremi Cabrera (Rangers) started off scaldingly hot. RoboScout, though, exercised caution because both had contact rates below 63%–a huge red flag. Over the last three weeks, however, both players have produced much more palatable contact rates around 75%. Their season-long rates are now 67%, which is essentially average for the Complex League. Great in-season work from the outfielders to improve the bat-to-ball.

Any of the top seven hitters should be rostered in leagues that have up to 150 prospects.

Complex League Pitchers (min 10 IP)

1Trevor HarrisonTBR95100
2Christian ZazuetaLAD8793
3Jesus PalaciosBAL9193
4Sean LinanLAD9193
5Hayden RobinsonMIL9492
6Jacob BresnahanCLE9892
7Keyner BenitezMIA10091
8Ovis PortesBOS8491
9Luis ArestiguetaATL8490
10Rafael GonzalezHOU8489
11Yeferson VargasBOS8289
12Alix HernandezSFG8489
13Adrian HerreraCIN8289
14Samuel SanchezLAD8687
15Adrian BohorquezMIN8586
16Jogly GarciaCLE8085
17Nelfy YnfanteSTL8785
18Jordarlin MendozaNYY7482
19Enniel CortezMIL8682
20Jeremy ReyesATL7881
21Luis MorellisCIN8180
22Jeremy PilonTBR8280
23Irving CotaNYM8479
24Engel Daniel PeraltaHOU7979
25Melkis HernandezCLE8479

Brewers righty Hayden Robinson is one of the younger pitchers in the Complex League at 18 years old, but he has a 37% strikeout rate, a 1.12 WHIP and a 20% swinging strike rate. He’s another Brewers pitcher with extreme extension, joining Jacob Misiorowski and Bishop Letson. Although his four-seamer only sits 89 mph, it approaches hitters as if it were 2 mph faster because of his seven feet of extension. Robinson also throws an 80 mph slider and a 79 mph changeup. Both generate over 45% whiffs and elicit above-average chases.

Guardians lefthander Jacob Bresnahan ranks No. 6 on the strength of his 34% strikeout-minus-walk rate. His stuff isn’t particularly compelling. Bresnahan has a 91 mph four-seam fastball, an 84 mph slider and a changeup. As you might imagine from his 4% walk rate and 30% ball rate, the 2023 13th-round pick pounds the strike zone with great control.

If you’re getting “Tugboat” vibes–as in a lefty with stuff that doesn’t light up contemporary models, yet has excellent success–the comparison isn’t quite apt. Matt Wilkinson delivers his arsenal from a low slot with high extension, and gets over 10 inches of horizontal run on all four of his pitches. Bresnahan isn’t an outlier with any of those same metrics. We’ve seen what the Guardians pitching factory is capable of producing over the last few years. We’re interested to see how this plays out.

Low-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

1Lazaro MontesSEA100100
2Colt EmersonSEA8490
3Jeral PerezLAD7889
4Kevin McGonigleDET7487
5Jonny FarmeloSEA7485
6Michael ArroyoSEA8284
7Ralphy VelazquezCLE7484
8Jaison ChourioCLE6881
9Blake MitchellKCR7181
10Jesus BaezNYM7079
11Josue De PaulaLAD6378
12Zyhir HopeLAD6378
13Yophery RodriguezMIL7278
14Angel GenaoCLE6277
15Bryce EldridgeSFG6576
16Aidan SmithSEA7276
17Josue BricenoDET6075
18Max ClarkDET6074
19Leandro AriasBAL5573
20Cooper PrattMIL6571
21Tai PeeteSEA6371
22Alfredo DunoCIN7071
23Axiel PlazPIT6971
24Aidan MillerPHI5870
25Sammy StafuraCIN6069

Mariners shortstop Michael Arroyo is quietly excelling among the Modesto Nuts’ embarrassment of riches. The 19-year-old has hit in the top three of the lineup all season, and he has a 134 wRC+. He has really turned it on over the last six weeks, leading Low-A in home runs with eight to tie teammate Lazaro Montes. Arroyo also chipped in five steals. Interestingly, Arroyo’s Statcast data maps quite closely to the more highly-regarded Montes despite considerably less fanfare.

 Contact%IZ Cont%90th EVChase%Barrel%Hard%
Montes73%77%104 mph23%16%34%
Arroyo72%79%103 mph24%16%36%

The second baseman is flashing 30-homer potential. He’s a Top 100 fantasy prospect for me.

Reds shortstop Sammy Stafura had a 149 wRC+ in his first 60 plate appearances after being promoted to full-season ball on May 27. That includes one home run, two stolen bases and a sub-20% strikeout rate as a teenager. The second-rounder had a maximum exit velocity of 102 mph in his pro debut of 53 plate appearances last year. He has already hit seven balls harder than that this year, although most came in the Complex League. Stafura has also vastly improved his contact from to league-average (71%) while maintaining above-average swing decisions and barrel rates.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

1Matt Wilkinson (no longer in Low-A)CLE100100
2Jonah Tong (no longer in Low-A)NYM9198
3Quinn Mathews (no longer in Low-A)STL8496
4Santiago SuarezTBR8093
5Alejandro RosarioTEX8192
6Grant TaylorCHW7590
7George Klassen (no longer in Low-A)PHI7789
8Yujanyer Herrera (no longer in Low-A)MIL8286
9Didier FuentesATL7385
10Jarlin SusanaWSN6983
11Bishop LetsonMIL6882
12Thomas WhiteMIA6981
13Jose GonzalezTEX6979
14Eliazar DishmeyMIA6378
15Jace KaminskaCOL7178
16Kohl DrakeTEX7678
17Travis SykoraWSN7077
18Noble MeyerMIA6477
19Mavis GravesPHI7977
20Welinton HerreraCOL6477
21Tyler GoughSEA6077
22Luis SernaNYY7576
23Gary Gill HillTBR7275
24Luis De Leon (no longer in Low-A)BAL7173
25Jedixson PaezBOS7575

Injury has befallen another top pitching prospect. Grant Taylor (White Sox) was placed on the injured list with a lat injury. There is no timeline for his return. The White Sox may not rush to bring him back considering he is returning from Tommy John surgery.

Yankees righty Luis Serna was a RoboScout favorite in 2022. He posted a 32% strikeout rate as a 17-year-old complex leaguer that year. He took a step back repeating the level last year. He threw 19.1 innings, posting a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate compared to 2022. This year, the 19-year-old righty has a 0.80 WHIP and 2.37 ERA with a worm-burning 57% groundball rate over his previous six Low-A starts. He’s showing flashes of the potential starter we dreamt about two years ago.

Serna’s fastball sits 92 mph with over 14 inches of IVB and horizontal break on his fastballs, which helps set up his primary pitch, a changeup, to get above-average whiffs and chases. Serna has a high floor given his ability to keep batted balls on the ground. Just don’t expect much more than back-of-the-rotation upside.

Padres righthander Isaiah Lowe is outside the season-long Low-A rankings, but has pitched quite well over the last six weeks. Lowe has a 34% strikeout rate, a 1.17 WHIP and a 3.10 ERA over the last six weeks. Under the hood, his pitch mix is more intriguing than the results might suggest. His high-spin 80 mph slider has over 13 inches of horizontal sweep and generates 35% chases and over 40% whiffs. His four-seamer is 92 mph, but plays up because of his seven-foot extension and has topped out at 97 mph. Lowe also has a potentially average changeup. The over-slot 11th-rounder is showing flashes of a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Mariners righthander Tyler Gough lights up Stuff models. But the results haven’t followed until recently. In his last seven starts for Low-A Modesto, Gough averaged over five innings with a 2.25 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate. His three-pitch mix is highlighted by a low-90s fastball with 20 inches of IVB, a 79 mph slider with over 16 inches of horizontal sweep and a 78 mph changeup that generates over 45% whiffs and elicits over 35% swings out of the zone.

High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

1Xavier IsaacTBR100100
2Luke Keaschall (no longer in High-A)MIN95100
3Carter JensenKCR9497
4Sal StewartCIN8590
5Luke AdamsMIL8488
6Samuel ZavalaCHW8387
7Henry BolteOAK8386
8Sebastian WalcottTEX9485
9Alex Freeland (no longer in High-A)LAD7885
10Cam CollierCIN8182
11Yohendrick Pinango (no longer in High-A)CHC7381
12Mike Boeve (no longer in High-A)MIL7380
13Jefferson RojasCHC7480
14Charles McAdooPIT7279
15Jared SernaNYY7278
16Jesus RodriguezNYY7077
17Ethan SalasSDP7977
18C.J. KayfusCLE7176
19Thayron LiranzoLAD7276
20Brayden TaylorTBR7476
21Brice MatthewsHOU6774
22Kristian CampbellBOS6774
23Hector RodriguezCIN6874
24Joe Mack (no longer in High-A)MIA7374
25William BergollaPHI7974

After a much-maligned start to the season, Rangers No. 2 prospect Sebastian Walcott now has a 103 wRC+ and a 120 wRC+ in the last six weeks spanning 125 plate appearances.

After his first 84 plate appearances in his first full professional season produced a moribund 82 wRC+ with only one home run, Mac Horvath (Orioles) has turned his season around with five home runs, 11 stolen bases and a 132 wRC+ in his last 120 plate appearances. The No. 53 overall pick hasn’t quite made the season-long High-A RoboScout ranks yet. The robot feels he “should” be excelling as a college hitter in High-A. But the (primarily) third baseman has maintained his tantalizing power/speed blend. He’s also improved his contact rate to 79%a plus rate for the levelwith even better numbers against non-fastballs.

Rays first baseman Tre’ Morgan is another player crushing it, even if he hasn’t quite cracked the season-long High-A rankings. Morgan had a 238 wRC+ and two homers in his first 56 plate appearances following his promotion from Low-A Charleston. Although he’s a low-power first baseman, RoboScout still has the LSU alumnus as an above-average major league bat who should manage 15 to 20 home runs at peak, with above-average swing decisions and above-average contact. The damage on contact isn’t impactful yet. He also hits the ball into the ground a bit too much. But Morgan produces against all pitch types and adds a speed component, raising his fantasy floor. He should be rostered in leagues with at least 350 prospects.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

1Noah SchultzCHW86100
2Matt WilkinsonCLE10099
3Luis Perales (no longer in High-A)BOS8497
4Quinn MathewsSTL8797
5Owen MurphyATL8697
6Jaden HammDET8891
7Zebby Matthews (no longer in High-A)MIN7891
8Chase DollanderCOL7790
9K.C. HuntMIL8689
10Jonah TongNYM8288
11Alessandro ErcolaniPIT6983
12Winston SantosTEX7383
13Sean SullivanCOL8482
14Moises ChaceBAL6781
15Edgar PortesBAL6781
16Austin PetersonCLE7580
17Yujanyer HerreraMIL7780
18Owen WildTBR7479
19Trevor MartinTBR7679
20Nolan McLean (no longer in High-A)NYM6579
21Jake Bloss (no longer in High-A)HOU6678
22Joseph MontalvoTEX6977
23Ryan LobusTEX6676
24Andrew Morris (no longer in High-A)MIN7375
25Andry Lara (no longer in High-A)WSN7775

Rays righty Owen Wild checks in at No. 18 this week. In his age-21 season, Wild has averaged over five innings in his last four starts with a 30% strikeout-minus-walk rate. With over six and a half feet of extension, his ultra-flat 91 mph four-seam fastball with 20 inches of IVB plays up even more. Wild’s 83 mph bullet slider generates above-average chases, and he also throws a firm changeup that flashes above-average. He is already filled out, so it’ll be interesting to see whether he can add more velocity and continue to build on his in-season development and actualize as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

For the first time I can remember, I think all eight pitchers on the High-A list should be rostered in dynasty leagues up to 150 prospects. However, recent injuries to Luis Perales (Red Sox) and Owen Murphy (Braves) muddy the water.

Double-A Hitters (min 40 PA)

1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Luke KeaschallMIN9094
3Agustin RamirezNYY9094
4Moises BallesterosCHC8588
5Cole YoungSEA8788
6Roman AnthonyBOS8187
7Matthew LugoBOS8084
8Carson WilliamsTBR8583
9Alex FreelandLAD7582
10Samuel BasalloBAL8280
11Hao-Yu LeeDET7979
12Edgar QueroCHW7478
13Harry FordSEA7677
14Deyvison De Los Santos (no longer in Double-A)ARI8477
15Colby ThomasOAK7177
16Jett WilliamsNYM6976
17James TriantosCHC6975
18Dalton RushingLAD6675
19Kristian CampbellBOS6674
20Tyler LocklearSEA6773
21Yohendrick PinangoCHC6272
22Marcelo MayerBOS6671
23Jasson DominguezNYY6571
24Jacob WilsonOAK6870
25Adael AmadorCOL6368

Guardians infielder Nate Furman never quite cracked the High-A top 25 this season. Still, Furman earned a promotion to Double-A Akron after posting a 216 wRC+, six home runs and five steals under 100 plate appearances for High-A Lake County. The 2022 fourth-rounder’s calling card out of the draft was his ability to get on base by any means necessary. He would then wreak havoc with his plus speed. The 5-foot-8 infielder is fulfilling that role in 2024.

Furman continues to make above-average swing decisions and plus contact. Now, he is making more damage on impact. He’s raised his xwOBAcon from .290 in 2023 to .357 this year and added six mph to his 90th percentile exit velocity to bring it up to a more acceptable 101 mph. Although he hasn’t hit any home runs yet in his first seven games in Double-A, keep in mind that the transition from Lake County (HR park factor of 182 for lefties) to Akron (HR park factor of 83) is extreme. He should be an average MLB bat with league-average power and speed. That’s a top 200 fantasy prospect. RoboScout would feel a lot better if he could trim his groundball rate.

Cubs outfielder Yohendrick Pinango hasn’t carried his High-A performance to Double-A Tennessee. RoboScout isn’t ready to tag him as a High-A wonder. Under the hood, Pinango has maintained a plus contact rate of 77%, a league-average chase rate of 27% and above-average bat speed. Yes, his barrel rate has fallen from his lofty 20% mark at South Bend to a merely league-average 14% in Tennessee, but those numbers are in the same Statcast cluster as Dylan Crews. In other words, RoboScout cautions not to write Pinango off just yet.

Baseball America ranks 21-year-old White Sox catcher Edgar Quero No. 90 in the Top 100. Still, it feels like he’s having a quiet year in terms of national discourse. Nothing could be further from the truth. The switch-hitting backstop has a 145 wRC+ and 10 home runs in 230 plate appearances. Remember, his park suppresses home runs 20% more than average. According to RoboScout, he is the fourth-best catching prospect in Double-A. He ranks ahead of Harry Ford (Mariners) and Dalton Rushing (Dodgers). Quero should unquestionably be considered a top-100 fantasy prospect, even with the “catcher” discount.

Double-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)

1Zebby MatthewsMIN100100
2Nolan McLeanNYM8790
3Braxton AshcraftPIT8987
4Tink HenceSTL9486
5Chandler Champlain (no longer in Double-A)KCR9383
6Ben Casparius (no longer in Double-A)LAD7881
7Blade Tidwell (no longer in Double-A)NYM7681
8Brandon YoungBAL8780
9Thomas HarringtonPIT8078
10Carson PalmquistCOL7878
11Zach PenrodBOS8578
12Yilber DiazARI8178
13Jackson JobeDET7277
14Brandon SproatNYM7877
15Kyle McGowinCHC8077
16Ian SeymourTBR8576
17Justin WrobleskiLAD7476
18Rhett LowderCIN8176
19Ty Madden (no longer in Double-A)DET8175
20Mason BarnettKCR7975
21Mason AdamsCHW8474
22Caden DanaLAA7874
23Tyler StuartNYM7474
24Tyler Woessner (no longer in Double-A)MIL9074
25Cameron WestonBAL7573

We called attention to Pirates righty Braxton Ashcraft in these hallowed pages last week. The Pirates promptly promoted him to Triple-A Indianapolis. If he continues on this path, Ashcraft might see the big leagues by August. He’s a top-150 fantasy prospect for me.

Cardinals righty Ian Bedell piqued RoboScout’s interest this week. Bedell has a 32% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate and a sub-1.00 WHIP in his last six starts. Although the righthander has a five-pitch mix, he’s predominantly a fastball/slider pitcher. His 93 mph four-seamer has over a foot of IVB and a foot of tail. His 83 mph bullet slider gets over 40% whiffs and over 35% chases. Bedell bridges the two with a cutter he throws about 10% of the time and generates extremely weak contact. A back-of-the-rotation starter role seemed like his ceiling in May. Now, that’s looking more likely.

Triple-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

1James WoodWSN100100
2Jose FerminSTL8892
3Jackson HollidayBAL8988
4Coby MayoBAL8186
5Miguel VargasLAD7984
6Kyle ManzardoCLE7784
7Andy PagesLAD7478
8Tyler BlackMIL7075
9Jace JungDET7374
10Heston KjerstadBAL6974
11Johnathan RodriguezCLE6672
12Chase MeidrothBOS6472
13Adrian Del CastilloARI6371
14Heliot RamosSFG6271
15Junior CamineroTBR6971
16Deyvison De Los SantosARI7970
17Jordan BeckCOL6470
18Spencer HorwitzTOR6070
19Parker MeadowsDET6670
20Javier SanojaMIA6470
21Jonatan ClaseSEA6770
22Ji Hwan BaePIT6469
23Juan BritoCLE6569
24Isaac CollinsMIL5869
25Luis MatosSFG5869

Jhonkensy Noel has the second-most home runs of any Triple-A hitter since May 5 behind only Griffin Conine (Marlins). An old friend of the robot, Noel has 10 homers in his last 143 plate appearances. Surprisingly he’s still only in his age-22 season. The first baseman/left fielder has the fifth-highest 90th percentile exit velocity among Triple-A hitters. He pairs that with an average contact rate.

That production plus his age–he’s a month shy of his 23rd birthday–implies that Noel should become an above-average MLB hitter capable of 25 homers per season. The bad news? The Dominican slugger has a chase rate above 40%. Can massive power with average bat-to-ball skills–but with an extreme preponderance to chase–play at the big-league level? Tentatively…yes (see, Christian Encarnacion-Strand). But this likely leads to a career profile of a slugger who will have a volatile major league career.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9998
3Cade PovichBAL8879
4David FestaMIN8379
5Carson SpiersCIN7477
6Tobias MyersMIL7377
7Chayce McDermottBAL7577
8Jack LeiterTEX7377
9Slade CecconiARI8277
10Elieser HernandezLAD7375
11Matt ManningDET7274
12Chad PatrickMIL7373
13Alek ManoahTOR7573
14Louie VarlandMIN7673
15Will WarrenNYY6872
16Cristian MenaARI7872
17Gerson GarabitoTEX7372
18Mason BlackSFG6872
19Quinn PriesterPIT8271
20Albert SuarezBAL7471
21Chandler ChamplainKCR7871
22Brant HurterDET7070
23Osvaldo BidoOAK7270
24Ben CaspariusLAD6470
25AJ Smith-ShawverATL6969

Reds righty Carson Spiers made his big league debut and has thrown 19.1 innings in 2024 for Cincinnati. Don’t be surprised to see him become a fixture in the Reds starting rotation in the second half. In his last three starts, the 26-year-old righthander has a 27% strikeout minus walk rate with a 0.83 WHIP and 1.00 ERA. His five-pitch mix has generated a groundball rate over 50%. Spiers is likely not on many redraft radars. He could be a sneaky add as a flier who could contribute this year.

Happy bidding!

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