Projected Field of 64 (3/27/19)

Baseball America presents our latest Projected Field of 64, as we will every week for the remainder of the season.

Though the season is approaching its halfway point, examining the field at this point still requires a lot of projection. RPI is starting to be instructive, but it hasn’t normalized yet and teams can still make big swings. Teams such as Baylor, Houston and Texas Christian still appear in the field despite RPIs well outside the range they will need to be in on Selection Monday to garner at-large bids.

At this stage, the hosting race and bubble are still very much developing. The SEC gets six hosts here, and that number could easily have been more. But only once has one conference had more than six hosts, and the SEC West’s strength guarantees that those teams will beat up on each other throughout the spring.

That strength also sees the SEC put 11 teams in this projected field, which would set the record for one conference. The three times a conference got 10 teams in the field (the 2014 and 2018 SEC and 2016 ACC), the three worst teams in the league all finished with conference winning percentages no better than .400, helping to pad the rest of the teams’ record without hurting their RPI. The selection committee made a winning conference record a huge factor in last year’s field, so this is a difficult needle to thread for a conference.

While the SEC’s strength is expected, the Missouri Valley Conference is putting together the early makings of a standout season. The MVC ranks fifth in conference RPI, even with perennial power Missouri State off to a 5-16 start. If the conference can maintain that lofty rating as it starts conference play, Dallas Baptist and Indiana State will have a chance to get into the hosting race. Illinois State is also on the periphery of the at-large discussion, though after getting swept at Illinois last weekend it’s running out of chances to make an impression in non-conference play. It figures to be a very competitive spring in the Valley.

Baseball America will continue to update the projected field weekly throughout the spring.

To see last week’s projection, click here.

PROJECTED FIELD OF 64
Los Angeles		Baton Rouge, La.
1. (1) UCLA^*		1. (16) Lousiana State^
2. UC Santa Barbara		2. Florida State
3. San Diego State*		3. Oklahoma State
4. Marist*		4. Stony Brook*
Starkville, Miss.		Greenville, N.C.
1. (2) Mississippi State^*		1. (15) East Carolina^*
2. Southern Mississippi*		2. Clemson
3. Bryant*		3. Tennessee
4. Alabama State*		4. Liberty
Stanford, Calif.		Louisville, Ky.
1. (3) Stanford^		1. (14) Louisville^
2. Dallas Baptist*		2. Auburn
3. St. John’s*		3. Indiana
4. Saint Mary’s*		4. Wright State*
Nashville, Tn.		Chapel Hill, N.C.
1. (4) Vanderbilt^		1. (13) North Carolina^
2. Illinois		2. Coastal Carolina*
3. Oregon		3. South Carolina
4. Morehead State*		4. Campbell*
Raleigh, N.C.		College Station, Tx.
1. (5) North Carolina State^*		1. (12) Texas A&M^
2. Connecticut		2. Texas Christian
3. Virginia Commonwealth*		3. Georgia Tech
4. Elon*		4. Army*
Athens, Ga.		Phoenix, Az.
1. (6) Georgia^		1. (11) Arizona State^
2. Michigan*		2. UC Irvine*
3. Miami		3. Indiana State
4. Samford*		4. New Mexico State*
Corvallis, Ore.		Lubbock, Tx.
1. (7) Oregon State^		1. (10) Texas Tech^
2. Ole Miss		2. Washington
3. Baylor		3. Sam Houston State*
4. Coppin State*		4. Yale*
Fayetteville, Ark.		Austin, Tx.
1. (8) Arkansas^		1. (9) Texas^*
2. Oklahoma		2. Florida
3. Nebraska		3. Houston
4. Oral Roberts*		4. Kent State

Last Four In

Oregon
Baylor
Nebraska
South Carolina

First Four Out

Pepperdine
Virginia Tech
Florida Atlantic
Cal State Fullerton

Next Four Out

West Virginia
Duke
Central Florida
Louisiana Tech