Diamondbacks

2025 No. 1: Jordan Lawlar, SS/3B

2026 Odds

• 40% Demetrio Crisantes, 2B
• 25% The Field
• 25% Slade Caldwell, OF
• 10% First-Round Pick

Lawlar may not have an MLB role lined up for him this spring, but he has prior MLB experience and needs just 97 at-bats to graduate. That seems all but guaranteed, which puts the No. 1 prospect in flux for 2026. The D-backs don’t have an obvious No. 1 candidate to replace him, and they don’t draft until 18th overall in July. That seems like an unlikely place to find a No. 1 prospect… except that two promising young position players in the system were drafted lower than that. Cristantes was a seventh-rounder, while Caldwell was drafted 29th overall last year.

Athletics

2025 No. 1: Nick Kurtz, 1B

2026 Odds

• 35% First-Round Pick
• 25% Luis Morales, RHP
• 20% The Field
• 10% Tommy White, 3B/1B
• 10% Nick Kurtz, 1B

Barring an injury, Kurtz is going to graduate in 2025. His 10% shot of remaining No. 1 is only because he has battled injuries during his amateur career. The Athletics do not pick until 11th, but once Kurtz and Wilson graduate, there is not a clear and logical next-up option. Most of the A’s Top 10 Prospects are closer to the majors, so if they have strong seasons, they will likely graduate, and if they don’t, they won’t have a case to be the No. 1 Prospect. Morales is the sneaky pick, and a slimmer White could be a wildcard choice.

Braves

2025 No. 1: Drake Baldwin, C

2026 Odds

• 25% Cam Caminiti
• 25% JR Ritchie
• 20% First-Round Pick
• 15% The Field
• 5% Garrett Baumann
• 5% John Gil
• 5% Didier Fuentes

Baldwin is set to graduate early in the 2025 season, which will leave the Braves looking to see which of its young pitchers is most likely to ascend to the top spot. Caminiti, the team’s 2024 first-round pick, and Ritchie, the 35th pick in the 2022 draft, have the clearest paths. Ritchie is now well past his 2023 Tommy John surgery and will be looking to show more polish. Caminiti is significantly younger and is further away, but he’s an athletic lefty with a high ceiling. Owen Murphy would fit into this discussion as well, but he’s sidelined for all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Braves pick 20th, but if none of the young pitchers take a step forward, the No. 1 spot could go to a draftee almost by default. Among longer-shot options, Baumann is a massive righthander who throws strikes. If his secondaries develop, he could be a midrotation starter. Gil is a pure hitter with speed and athleticism who could surprise with a breakout season, and Fuentes could also break out.

Orioles

2025 No. 1: Samuel Basallo, C

2026 Odds

• 40% Samuel Basallo
• 25% Vance Honeycutt
• 20% Enrique Bradfield
• 15% The Field

Basallo could graduate, but as the Orioles’ backup plan at catcher (behind Adley Rutschman) and the backup to backup plan at first base (behind Coby Mayo, who is behind Ryan Mountcastle for now), he has a decent chance to remain prospect eligible into 2026. If he graduates or falters, Honeycutt has the type of well-rounded, everyday regular profile that could make him a No. 1 prospect. Bradfield is an unconventional profile to be a No. 1 prospect, but he could be a late-season big league callup who slides into next year as a just-eligible prospect with some big league success under his belt.

Red Sox

2025 No. 1: Roman Anthony, OF

2026 Odds

• 30% Marcelo Mayer, SS
• 30% Franklin Arias, SS
• 10% David Sandlin, RHP
• 10% Roman Anthony, OF
• 10% The Field

Mayer would graduate in most organizations, but there’s a decent chance that he remains blocked for much of the year if everyone stays healthy. If he does graduate, Arias is the most likely next man up. It’s much harder to see how Anthony will be held back from Boston for most of the year. Sandlin hasn’t put it together as a pitcher yet, but he has exceptional stuff, so there is an outside chance it all clicks.

Cubs

2025 No. 1: Matt Shaw, 3B

2026 Odds

• 25% Moises Ballesteros
• 20% Owen Caissie
• 20% Kevin Alcantara
• 20% James Triantos
• 10% First-Round Pick
• 5% Cade Horton

Shaw is graduating in almost any scenario, but the Cubs have a gaggle of prospects right behind him who are all in Triple-A. Some of them are likely to graduate, but it’s hard to see them all getting significant big league time this year for a team without a lot of clear holes in the big league lineup. So, we split the difference and gave the Triple-A position players equal chances of being next year’s No. 1. Ballesteros gets a little higher odds because catchers often take longer to develop.

White Sox

2025 No. 1: Noah Schultz, LHP

2026 Odds

• 30% Noah Schultz
• 30% Hagen Smith
• 20% Braden Montgomery
• 20% First-Round Pick

The White Sox have a number of quality No. 1 prospect candidates, but if Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel or Edgar Quero have a No. 1-caliber season, it’s hard to see them still being eligible at this time next year. Schultz and Smith both could be late-season big league promotions who retain rookie eligibility. Braden Montgomery, another pick-up in the Garrett Crochet trade, could hit his way to the top of the White Sox’s rankings. The White Sox pick 10th, so there’s also an outside shot the team’s top pick could sneak to the top of next year’s rankings.

Reds

2025 No. 1: Rhett Lowder, RHP

2026 Odds

• 30% Chase Burns, RHP
• 20% The Field
• 15% Edwin Arroyo, SS
• 15% Alfredo Duno, C
• 10% Sal Stewart, 3B
• 10% First-Round Pick

Only a serious injury would keep Lowder from graduating, and Chase Petty is also likely to graduate this year. Burns, the team’s 2024 No. 1 pick, could also pitch enough MLB innings to no longer be eligible next year, but that’s a more volatile prediction considering his lack of pro experience. If the “Big Three” pitchers all graduate, this becomes a wide-open race for No. 1. The Field is the next highest prediction behind Burns because there are a lot of semi-plausible candidates like Sammy Stafura, Cam Collier, Tyson Lewis and Sheng-En Lin who could emerge. The Reds pick ninth, which could be a Top 100 Prospect, but the Reds should have someone who ranks higher than the back of the 100.

Guardians

2025 No. 1: Travis Bazzana, 2B

2026 Odds

• 40% Jaison Chourio, OF
• 30% Travis Bazzana, 2B
• 20% Angel Genao, SS
• 10% Welbyn Francisca, SS

Bazzana’s chances to graduate make him less likely to repeat than Chourio is to supplant him, but both are reasonable possibilities. Genao and Francisca are both toolsy shortstops, a demographic that produces a lot of No. 1 prospects.

Rockies

2025 No. 1: Chase Dollander, RHP

2026 Odds

• 35% First-Round Pick
• 35% Charlie Condon
• 20% Robert Calaz
• 10% Chase Dollander

Dollander’s odds are this low because any scenario where he remains prospect eligible probably involves an injury of some sort. He should reach Coors Field before too long. The Rockies pick fourth overall, which gives that pick a chance to edge out Condon, the third pick in last year’s draft. Condon battled a hand injury last year and now he’s sidelined with a fractured wrist. Calaz is a wild card to keep an eye on.

Tigers

2025 No. 1: Jackson Jobe, RHP

2026 Odds

• 30% Max Clark, OF
• 30% Kevin McGonigle, SS
• 30% Bryce Rainer, SS
• 10% Thayron Liranzo, C

Jobe should graduate by mid season, and this figures to be a fascinating race for next year’s No. 1. Clark and McGonigle each have the edge on Rainer, but their odds are cut slightly by the outside chance that either could graduate with an exceptional 2025 season. Rainer is a safe bet to be eligible next year, and his tools give him a shot to climb up the Top 100.

Astros

2025 No. 1: Cam Smith, OF/3B

2026 Odds

• 25% Walker Janek, C
• 15% Ryan Forcucci, RHP
• 15% First-Round Pick
• 15% Anderson Brito, RHP
• 15% Migel Ullola, RHP
• 15% The Field

This one is wider than wide open. Smith is already in the big leagues, and Melton, Brice Matthews and Zach Dezenzo are all close enough to Houston that if they have a good enough season to be a No. 1 prospect, they should get the callup to Houston quickly enough this year to graduate. That leaves a wide array of possibilities, but none are slam-dunk No. 1 prospect options. Forcucci, Brito and Ullola are the best pitching options to climb to No. 1 in an organization that produces plenty of pitchers. Janek’s the pick if his bat can improve. The Astros first pick is at 19, but with this group, that could be the choice.

Royals

2025 No. 1: Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF

2026 Odds

• 40% Blake Mitchell
• 20% Carter Jensen
• 20% Jac Caglianone
• 15% David Shields
• 10% First-Round Pick

Caglianone is the clear No. 1 prospect, but with him starting at Double-A, if he hits like he’s expected to, he could easily graduate before next year’s Top 30. Mitchell, the team’s current No. 2 prospect, is the best bet to succeed him, but Jensen, another catcher, could leapfrog him. Shields is the pitcher most likely to emerge as a No. 1 prospect. The Royals pick 23rd, so the chances of their first-rounder jumping straight to the top of the rankings is less likely this year.

Angels

2025 No. 1: Caden Dana, RHP

2026 Odds

• 70% First-Round Pick
• 15% Joswa Lugo, SS
• 10% Christian Moore, 2B
• 5% Nelson Rada, OF

The Angels pick No. 2 overall, which should land them a top 50 prospect who is likely to be the team’s top prospect. The Angels do move prospects exceptionally quickly, so there is a slight risk the pick could graduate before next year if the Angels pick a college bat.

Dodgers

2025 No. 1: Roki Sasaki, RHP

2026 Odds

• 65% Josue De Paula, OF
• 25% Dalton Rushing, C/OF
• 5% Alex Freeland, SS
• 5% Jackson Ferris, LHP

It’s almost certain that Sasaki will graduate this season. When he does, Rushing will jump to the top of the heap in the Dodgers’ system. Given the presence of Will Smith behind the plate and glut of veterans patrolling the outfield, it seems unlikely he’ll enough run in the big leagues to graduate from prospect status. He seems like a prime trade chip this summer, especially considering there are teams who value him as a catcher. The same goes for Freeland, who has a host of long-time big leaguers to contend with in Los Angeles. That leaves De Paula, one of the team’s terrific trio of outfielders—a group that also includes Zyhir Hope and Eduardo Quintero—who has had a monster spring and looks like one of the more offensively gifted players in the minor leagues. If he builds on his strong output on the backfields, he’ll zoom to the top of the list. 

Marlins

2025 No. 1: Thomas White, LHP

2026 Odds

• 50% Thomas White, LHP
• 50% First-Round Pick

White is one of the most impressive pitching prospects in baseball and one of the top lefthanders alongside Noah Schultz, Quinn Mathews and Hagen Smith. Still, pitchers face attrition and injury risk, and the Marlins are choosing seventh overall this July. That’s the type of draft position that could furnish a top-flight position prospect.

Brewers

2025 No. 1: Jesus Made, SS

2026 Odds

• 50% Jesus Made, SS
• 25% Cooper Pratt, SS
• 25 % The Field

Made is the safest bet of all No. 1 prospects to remain prospect eligible next year. He’s slated to start the year at Low-A Carolina. Assuming he performs as expected, he’s a pretty good choice to remain No. 1, but Pratt’s combination of advanced hitting ability and defense could give him a run for the spot. This is one team where we are taking the cop out of having significant odds for “the field.” It would have been near impossible to predict Made a year ago, and Pratt has also broken out as a prospect. This is an organization where prospects often make big leaps.

Twins

2025 No. 1: Walker Jenkins, OF

2026 Odds

• 50% Walker Jenkins, OF
• 20% Brandon Winokur, SS
• 15% Charlee Soto, RHP
• 15% Connor Prielipp, LHP

Jenkins is one of our picks to be next year’s No. 1 prospect in the game, so he’s also a clear favorite to stay on top of the Twins list. There is a chance he graduates, but much less than the chance that Emmanuel Rodriguez leaves prospectdom. If Rodriguez stays healthy and performs, he should jump to the majors this year. If he’s sidelined for a significant time by injuries, that will probably ding his chances to be No. 1. Winokur has the tools to be a star, even if there’s plenty of risk, as well. Soto and Prielipp are high-ceiling pitchers with No. 1 prospect potential.

Mets

2025 No. 1: Jett Williams, SS/OF

2026 Odds

• 50% Jett Williams, SS/OF
• 40% Jesus Baez, 3B/SS
• 10% The Field

If Brandon Sproat pitches well at Triple-A, he likely will pitch his way out of prospect status with 50 big league innings. Williams should spend most of his age-21 season in the upper minors, but he enters the year slotted behind young big leaguers Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio on the depth chart. That makes 2026 his more likely rookie season. Baez has higher overall hitting potential than Williams but lacks the speed and pure up-the-middle profile. Still, a breakout season with the bat could get it done. Top 2025 international signee Elian Peña is the wild card here, but the Dominican shortstop faces long odds of ranking No. 1 as a 17-year-old in Rookie ball.

Yankees

2025 No. 1: Jasson Dominguez, OF

2026 Odds

• 90% George Lombard Jr., SS
• 5% Ben Hess, RHP
• 5% First-Round Pick

Dominguez should graduate quickly from prospect status, leaving Lombard to assume the throne as the top minor leaguer in the Yankees’ system. The group overall is already dealing with a serious rash of injuries—righty Chase Hampton and lefty Henry Lalane, among others, are already on the full-season injured list—and outfielder Spencer Jones was sent back to Double-A to begin the season after punching out 200 times at the level in 2024. Lombard has gotten rave reviews in spring training, and scouts believe he could be a fixture in New York for a very long time. The only other obvious option here is Hess, New York’s first-rounder from 2024 out of Alabama. He does not have any official pro experience, and it would take an absolutely electric season for Hess to lap Lombard. 

Phillies

2025 No. 1: Andrew Painter, RHP

2026 Odds

• 60% Andrew Painter, RHP
• 30% Aidan Miller, SS
• 10% Justin Crawford, OF

The Phillies are going to be cautious with Painter, who missed each of the last two regular seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. As such, he is unlikely to graduate from prospect status. Given the quality of his stuff and the early returns in the Arizona Fall League, he looks every bit the part of a future No. 1 starter. If something should go awry, however, Miller was splendid in 2024 and reached Double-A in his first full turn as a pro. Moreover, scouts were pleased with his work at shortstop and with the way his power rebounded the further removed he became from wrist surgery as an amateur. If Crawford can get the ball in the air a bit more often, he also could have a case as the system’s No. 1 prospect. The likeliest course of action, though, is Painter, at least for one more season. 

Pirates

2025 No. 1: Bubba Chandler, RHP

2026 Odds

• 55% Konnor Griffin, OF
• 25% First-Round Pick
• 20% Bubba Chandler, RHP

Griffin has been one of the most impressive players on the back fields this spring. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him be one of the best players in Class-A this year and a Top 25 Prospect before long. The Pirates pick sixth, so they will get a likely Top 100 Prospect. Chandler’s low odds are because of the likelihood he’ll graduate. 

Padres

2025 No. 1: Leodalis De Vries, SS

2026 Odds

• 40% Leodalis De Vries, SS
• 30% Ethan Salas, C
• 20% The Field
• 10% Kash Mayfield, LHP

The top two prospects in the Padres system are a clear step ahead of anyone else. One could argue for them having 80+% combined odds of being the No. 1 next year, but A.J. Preller is also one of the most aggressive GMs in the game, so there’s always the chance they could be traded if the Padres need a playoff push.

Mariners

2025 No. 1: Colt Emerson, SS

2026 Odds

• 25% Colt Emerson
• 25% Jonny Farmelo 
• 15% Michael Arroyo
• 15% Felnin Celesten
• 10% Lazaro Montes
• 10% Ryan Sloan

Emerson is an excellent prospect, but the sheer weight of high-ceiling prospects in the Mariners system who are unlikely to graduate makes it no sure bet that he’ll remain No. 1 year from now. Farmelo is back from a knee injury. Arroyo is an offensive force who can play in the dirt. Celesten is a shortstop who could be a middle-of-the-order bat. Montes hits the ball exceptionally hard and Sloan is a prep arm who could blossom in the Mariners’ pitching development program.

Giants

2025 No. 1: Bryce Eldridge, 1B

2026 Odds

• 65% Bryce Eldridge, 1B
• 15% Josuar Gonzalez, SS
• 10% First-Round Pick
• 5% Dakota Jordan, OF
• 5% James Tibbs, OF

It’s true that Eldridge zoomed to Triple-A in 2024 and appeared on the precipice of his big league debut. Those plans are on ice for a while, however, while he recovers from a wrist injury suffered during spring training that will keep him from breaking camp with an affiliate. Gonzalez was one of the most talented players available during the most recent international signing period and had his arrow pointing up as signing day neared. Jordan was as tooled-up as they come as an amateur and has made strides toward turning those tools into skills over the course of spring training. Tibbs has a higher floor than most prospects in San Francisco’s system and could move quickly. 

Cardinals

2025 No. 1: JJ Wetherholt, SS

2026 Odds

• 60% First-Round Pick
• 30% JJ Wetherholt
• 10% The Field

The Cardinals pick fifth this July, which is the highest the team has picked since they took J.D. Drew fifth overall in 1998. Wetherholt’s odds are this low because of the decent chance that he’ll graduate with a strong season. While prospects like Yairo Padilla and Rainel Rodriguez may pop this year, it’s hard to see them leap-frogging a top-of-the draft selection.

Rays

2025 No. 1: Carson Williams, SS

2026 Odds

• 15% Carson Williams, SS
• 15% Brayden Taylor, 2B/3B
• 15% Tre’ Morgan, 1B
• 15% Brailer Guerrero, OF
• 10% Chandler Simpson, OF
• 10% Xavier Isaac, 1B
• 10% Aidan Smith, OF
• 10% The Field

The Rays are another of the teams where predicting who’s No. 1 next year is a treacherous task. The cop out would be to just say “The Field” because the depth of the Rays system, and the tenuous nature of determining which prospects may graduate makes it difficult to make a prediction. Williams started the year at Triple-A, but he’s not a sure bet to graduate this year. The same could be said for Simpson. Morgan and Issac face tougher paths to being the No. 1 prospect as first basemen, but they also are more likely to not graduate. Guerrero is the high-ceiling breakout prospect pick, but Smith also has the tools to be a potential No. 1 prospect.

Rangers

2025 No. 1: Sebastian Walcott, SS

2026 Odds

• 80% Sebastian Walcott, SS
• 5% Malcolm Moore, C
• 5% Emiliano Teodo, RHP
• 5% Winston Santos, RHP
• 5% First-Round Pick

The odds of Walcott being the Rangers’ No. 1 prospect at this time next year are almost as strong as the Rangers continuing to be in the American League West. He’s as tooled-up as they come and showed an electric blend of tools and skills over the course of the 2024 season, even after a slow start. He’ll play all year at just 19 years old, and could be the No. 1 overall prospect in the sport at this time in 2026. If something goes wrong, advanced righthanders Teodo and Santos could jump up, as could offensive-minded catcher Malcolm Moore. A big score with the No. 12 overall pick might also fit if something derails Walcott’s progress. 

Blue Jays

2025 No. 1: Ricky Tiedemann, RHP

2026 Odds

• 50% Arjun Nimmala, SS
• 30% Ricky Tiedemann, RHP
• 20% Trey Yesavage, RHP

Nimmala has impressed this spring and has just joined the Top 100. Tiedemann’s health issues ding his chances, as a further injury setback would make him unlikely to be No. 1 again next year, while a strong season could see him graduate this year. Yesavage is an interesting third option.

Nationals

2025 No. 1: Dylan Crews, OF

2026 Odds

• 60% First-Round Pick
• 20% Seaver King, SS
• 10% Travis Sykora, RHP
• 10% Alexander Clemmey, LHP

Crews has already graduated, so the spot should be wide open for 2026. When a team has the first-overall draft pick, they are picking someone who should crack the Top 30 in next year’s Top 100. Only once in the past five drafts has that failed to happen (Henry Davis, 2021 No. 1 pick who received the fifth-highest bonus ranked 41st). So anyone else is going to have to be a top 25 pick to likely rank No. 1. King has the best chances to do that, but if he has that good of a year, he also could graduate.