One Weekend In, Steals Are Way Up, Game Times Are Down
Image credit: (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
We have now completed one weekend of spring training games. That is obviously not long enough to make any sweeping conclusions about new rules changes, but a couple of days into spring training, there are some very notable early trends.
Game Times Are Way Down
The average nine-inning spring training game in 2022 took just over three hours to play. In 2021, it was three hours on the dot.
This year, through the end of Sunday, the average nine-inning game is taking 2:39 to play. We have average game time data for spring training games going back to 2006. The average nine-inning spring training game in 2006 took 2:40 to play and it has been on a steady increase almost every year since. So far, the pitch clock has brought the time of game back to where it was nearly two decades ago.
Stolen Bases Are Way Up
Maybe this is a case of teams trying out a new toy before deciding to put it in the closet, but so far teams are running wild with the new pickoff rules that encourage base-stealing (as well as larger bases).
Teams are averaging 1.08 steal attempts per game so far. That’s a nearly 40% increase, from .77 attempts per game in spring training in 2022. The success rate is also up. Last year in spring training, teams succeeded on 73% of attempts. This year the success rate is 78%.
It’s one weekend of games, so again, we’re not trying to go overboard with assumptions here, but so far teams are averaging .84 successful steals per game. You’d have to go back to 1987 (.85 steals per game) to find an MLB season where teams averaged that many successful steals per game, and 1987 was a massive outlier. The previous year that topped that mark was 1919, back when Babe Ruth was starting to show teams that hitting home runs could be a productive part of an offense.
Stolen base rates are often higher in spring training than they are in the regular season. Last year’s .77 attempts per game in spring training dropped to .68 attempts per game in the regular season. In 2021, spring training saw .81 steal attempts per game, which dropped to .59 attempts per game during the regular season. But if this early spring training trend doesn’t completely disappear, it does appear that stolen base attempts will be up dramatically in 2023, just as MLB hoped when it instituted these rules changes.
Update: Jason Collette has worked up some additional spring training stolen base numbers which add some additional context.
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