MLB Offseason Chat With Kyle Glaser (12/4/18)
2018-19 Offseason Chat
Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, sorry I'm running a few minutes late. Had a situation with my dog, but all is well. Been a fun offseason already, let's get chatting
Matt (Los Angeles, CA):
- Do you think the Angels tap into their improved farm system to upgrade via a major trade? How does the rest of the league view their system?
Kyle Glaser: The Angels very well have the ammunition to do so and the rest of MLB recognizes that, but they've been through the gamut before of trading their top prospects and then not having the depth needed when injuries hit. Since the Newcomb-Simmons deal, Billy Eppler has emphasized the need to build from within, both to provide short-term depth and long-term viability. I would expect the Angels prospect trades to come from the middle-to-bottom of their system as they did using Troy Montgomery and Wilkel Hernandez to get Ian Kinsler rather than a blockbuster where they trade Adell or Canning, which is probably the best way to go anyway (keep the top, trade the depth)
- Thanks for the chat. How do you see the Braves rotation working out to the start of the year? Does Soroka have a spot or do they try to make a move for a big name SP? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: Keep in mind that Mike Foltynewicz took the step forward last year to produce better than many of the "big names" on the market, so the Braves aren't dying here. Folty, Newcomb, Teheran, Gausman is a darn good top 4. Whether Soroka takes that No. 5 spot will depend on the health of his shoulder, but if it's not him, it would be smarter for the Braves to try and fill it with one of their in-house pitching prospects (Touki, etc) and save their money or prospects for an outfielder.
- Let's say the Mariners demanded a team trading for Haniger needed to also take back Seager. If you ran the Braves would you offer Wright, Pache, and Teheran (to balance money) for Seager, Haniger, and cash? You could align the OF Seager, Acuna, and Haniger, with Inciarte used as trade bait to land an ace or as a 4th OF. Thank you!
Kyle Glaser: Seager is a third baseman who can't play the outfield, so that throws a wrench into your scenario right there. And as good as Inciarte is, he wouldn't be what lands you an ace. So no, this isn't the scenario that would take place
- What kind of prospect package could the Cardinals offer for Goldschmidt? Is Carson Kelly, Dakota Hudson, and Dylan Carlson enough? Thank you!
Kyle Glaser: If the D-backs gave up Paul Goldschmidt for anything less than Alex Reyes or Jack Flaherty-plus, they'd be stupid, and I don't think Mike Hazen is stupid. Goldschmidt is a franchise-altering talent. You aren't getting him without giving up something that hurts. (So no, that package isn't nearly enough)
Taylor (Chandler, AZ):
- What kind of prospect package could the Dbacks expect for Greinke? Maybe a top 100 and a lower level prospect? Thank you!
Kyle Glaser: A lot of that will depend on the money. If the D-backs insist on teams paying the rest of his contract down, they won't get a lot back....If they pay half, they can get a good prospect or two back. It's really going to depend on the $$, so it's hard to really say
J.P. (Springfield, IL):
- Do you believe the Mets gave up too much for Cano/Diaz from a prospect standpoint?
Kyle Glaser: I would say I'm surprised the Mets gave up as much as they did while still being on the hook for $100 million of Cano's deal. Knowing his production is going to take a nosedive in two years and be a sunk cost, and still being on the hook for that much of his salary, it was too high of a price to pay
Dan (Indianapolis, IN):
- Predict for us - where will Harper and Manny end up?
Kyle Glaser: Manny-Phillies. Harper-Cubs
- Is there not going to be a podcast for the Jays' Top Ten? The podcasts were seemingly following the release of the top 10s (AL East, AL Central, AL West). But the Jays seem to have been skipped?
Kyle Glaser: We recorded it but apparently there was an issue posting it. Will check on it
- Astros have a better chance to trade for Goldy or Realmuto?
Kyle Glaser: Goldschmidt would cost less just because he's only got one-year on his deal. But they have equal chances at both because they have the prospects for both.
Jose (Louisville, Kentucky):
- JP Crawford has been uninspiring for a while now. Do you think he has a chance to turn into an average regular for the M's? What's his biggest developmental need right now?
Kyle Glaser: As I've told Phillies fans asking me this question since I started, J.P. Crawford has a chance to be a fine, bottom-of-the-order shortstop who gets on base and plays solid defense. That's who he is, that's who he's always been. Right now, his biggest hurdle to that is how unreliable his defense was last year. Staying healthy and shoring up that D is what he needs to do to reach that. Expecting him to one day start to being a plus hitter or something is unrealistic
Kusum (San Francisco):
- What is Ender Inciarte's trade value, and could he be moved to fill other holes?
Kyle Glaser: Elite defensive center fielders who can hit at least respectably are rare, and Inciarte is one of them. You can get something solid back for him, but honestly, given the way the rest of the Braves OF currently shakes out (Acuna, Inciarte and ???), they are better off keeping him. That's probably of more value to Atlanta than anything he could bring in a trade
- Kyle, Wouldn't the Mets have been better off Signing one of Robertson or Ottavino, Grandal and JA Happ. I don't understand how the trade for Diaz helps them, and they took on big contract in Cano and a risky arm in Diaz.
Kyle Glaser: Diaz is way superior to Robertson or Ottavino, let's not short-change him. He is truly a top of the scale closer in today's game and has a chance to remain one of the elite. That said, given the Mets other shortcomings, where they are in the NL East pecking order, and how much money they took on with Cano, yes, they would have been better off filling their holes in other ways than this trade
TEAR IT DOWN (TO THE STUDS):
- What do you put Danny duffy's trade value at? He was succesful in the bullpen and then seemed to wear down when they threw him back in the rotation. Higher or lower than sonny gray's trade value? I believe the royals should turn him into a once through the lineup super bullpen piece for max trade value at the deadline.
Kyle Glaser: Certainly higher than Sonny Gray's value. By a ton. And max trade value for Duffy would be if he returns to previous form as a quality lefthanded starter (Jose Quintana got more in return than Andrew Miller, although both got a lot). Let Duffy start, and only make that bullpen move if he fails. The Royals stand to get a lot more if he can return to what he showed in 2017 or, even better 2016 when he went 12-3, 3.56 as a starter
- Off topic but still important for my dynasty off-season. For strickly Fantasy purposes please rank W. Calhoun, A. Meadows, I. Happ, H. Bader. Thank you!
Kyle Glaser: Give me Meadows, Happ, Bader, Calhoun
DAN GENOVESE (ny ny):
- Do you feel the Yankees will sign Harper?
Kyle Glaser: There's no question they're involved. In the end I think the Cubs will be a little more motivated and seal the deal...but if the Yankees sign him, no one should be shocked
Jon (Tampa, FL):
- Fantasy question please. Is giving up Leody Taveras too much for Gausman? It seems that the Braves Gausman looks a lot better than the Orioles Gausman.
Kyle Glaser: I don't think much of Leody Taveras. If someone is actually willing to give you Kevin Gausman for him, make that deal and don't think twice
dan genovese (nyny):
- who is the yankees top pitching pitching prospect ?
Kyle Glaser: Your answer is here in the Yankees Top 10 (minus Sheffield, of course) https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1028/new-york-yankees/organizational/?year=2019
Wade (Hartford, CT):
- I keep reading that the Rockies might be in play for a big-time deal. What prospects do they have, aside from Brendan Rodgers, could they package to bring in a star player to help solidify the middle of the line up?
Kyle Glaser: Garrett Hampson and Peter Lambert are two well-regarded players throughout the industry who project to be regulars, and good ones. Packaging Rodgers with one of those two, plus some of their interesting talent in the next tier (Welker, Nevin, etc) or their considerable low-level Dominican talent, would get them anyone they wanted....of course, that's a heavy price that isn't the best use of their resources given LeMahieu is gone and Arenado is a FA after 2019. Honestly, the Rox could help themselves out by just playing the right players they already have on their roster rather than wasting ABs on old, unproductive hitters.
Michael (Elyria, Ohio):
- Kluber, Bauer or Carrasco. Which one gets dealt?
Kyle Glaser: None.
- Any news on where Billy Hamilton may end up?
Kyle Glaser: Wherever someone needs a fourth OF. I could see the Braves or Giants doing it, but that could change if they succeed in getting actual starting-caliber OFs
Don (Orland Park, IL.):
- Do you think the Chicago White Sox will sign any of the big free agents or will they only make player acquisition through trades ?
Kyle Glaser: It's a little early in their rebuild cycle to make a huge signing. That said, given the enormous amount of payroll room they have, they will certainly sign some players - it just may not be a headliner
- Peter Maris is the name. He's an undrafted MIF that's old for his competition, but hits LH, has developing power, great zone control, good speed, and suitable defense up the middle. That sounds like a major league piece. What's his deal?
Kyle Glaser: Hittability. .248 with a .337 on-base in Double-A as a 24-year-old doesn't scream major leaguer. We have seen some late-blooming 2B/3B types before. A full season at the level this year for Maris will be telling.
Noah (NE Minneapolis):
- Any news on what/who the Twins are seeking this off season? Thanks.
Kyle Glaser: They're going to need some pitching. Most of their expected impact arms are still years away. Another infielder wouldn't hurt either
- Hey thanks for the chat and glad everything is okay with the dog. What do you see the Dodgers doing? I know they met with Harper, but seems like they have other issues to address (2B, RP). Are there any names you have heard or think make sense? Also, does Verdugo have a chance to start in either CF or LF out of Spring Training?
Kyle Glaser: Thanks Trey. My pleasure. Finding a one-year fix for 2B (Cesar Hernandez??) until Gavin Lux is something they need to do more than add another corner outfielder. And that bullpen is going to get some help from arms coming up (Dennis Santana, Tony Gonsolin, maybe Yadier Alvarez after some mental and physical adjustments), but they would be wise to find other arms in the meantime. As for Verdugo, his lapses in focus and effort, plus his below-average sprint speed, means no CF, at least not everyday. Left is his most likely everyday spot and he'll have a chance at the job, but don't expect Andrew Toles, Joc Pederson, etc to just give it away. Honestly, Verdugo might be most valuable to the Dodgers as a trade piece at this point, especially if they can use him as the main guy to get JT Realmuto
- With the way the AL is setup today, there is really only one WC to play with the A's, Twins, Rays and possibly the Angels having a chance at it. Isn't this the time for the Rays to get aggressive and sign Cruz AND trade for a Goldschmidt? They have the prospect power and the playoff opportunity to warrant such a move...
Kyle Glaser: The Rays might have even made the playoffs if they hadn't been too cheap to just pay Corey Dickerson last year. As long as they keep giving away productive players making $5 million, they won't get over that threshold. Smart trades don't do much for you if you don't actually keep the player. As far as signing Cruz and trading for Goldschmidt, the Rays could do it, but I think it's about as likely as humans colonizing Mars within the next year.
- Rays have a glut of LH 1B, OF, and MIF at AAA and MLB. Out of Nate Lowe, Brandon Lowe, McCarthy, Bauers, Choi, Wendle, and Meadows, who do you like most? Who makes the most sense as trade bait?
Kyle Glaser: When all is said and done, Meadows has a chance to be the best of all of them. Athleticism in the OF, real hitting ability, and the power showed up in a big way when he got to Durham. He's head and shoulders above the rest if he's healthy
- Hey Kyle, curious where you're at personally on Crawford? Still optimistic or have the high minors struggles dimmed his stock for you?
Kyle Glaser: As discussed earlier, his stock hasn't really changed for me since 2013 when I saw him at Lakewood HS. Everyday SS with a good glove who gets on base, but it's a bottom of the order bat. That's what he's always been for me
- Which of Reynoldo Lopez or Marco Gonzalez have a better season?
Kyle Glaser: Reynaldo Lopez
Todd (Englewood, NJ):
- What do you see the Astros doing this offseason? It seems they need a starting pitcher both for this season and going forward. Resign Morton? Trade for a starter like Greinke? Are they satisfied with Tyler White at DH or do they sign Nelson Cruz? Any other thoughts?
Kyle Glaser: Finding a catcher is their No. 1 priority. Honestly, if the price is Kyle Tucker plus one of Bukauskas/Martin as the main pieces for Realmuto, they should pull that trigger and not think twice
Adam (Las Vegas):
- Which rumored James Paxton trade offer would you have agreed to if you were in DiPoto’s seat?
Kyle Glaser: Rumored trade offers often differ greatly from actual trade offers, so I don't think it makes a ton of sense to deal in the theoretical. At the same time, unless there was something on Paxton's medical that we're not privy to, I would have held out for more.
John Russell (Philly, FWWB writer):
- When do we see Eloy? Has nothing to prove in the minors, will be be on the opening day roster, or a mid spring call up? thanks brother! @johnrussell215
Kyle Glaser: We'll see him as soon as the White Sox have that extra year of control guaranteed. He's ready. And he's going to be a stud.
- If there is one absolute in baseball, it appears to be that long term free agent contracts simply do not work at 90 + percentile. Yet every year, we have front offices scrambling to overpay players on the back end. It seems a new GM has a twofold job. One is evaluating and acquiring talent, and the other dealing with bad contracts. Do you see the trend that started last year regarding long-term free agent contracts and lack there of continuing?
Kyle Glaser: Like everything else in life, it has to do with age. A-Rod signed a 10-year contract right before his age 26 season and was productive through the life of that original contract. So a long-term deal, per se, isn't necessarily the worst thing in the world. What is foolish is signing 31-32 year old position players to 8-10 year deals, which is obviously the more common situation. I think we're starting to see GMs wise up to it, but then again it feels like one crops up every year
Daron (Madison, WI):
- Do you think we will ever see a day where MLB Draft picks (beyond just the competitive balance selections) are able to be traded freely between teams?
Kyle Glaser: No.
- How does Haniger for Pache/Riley/Wright/Anderson feel from a value perspective?
Kyle Glaser: I like Mitch Haniger, a lot, but that's way, way, way too much. He's really good. He's not 4 top 100 prospects good.
Adam (Las Vegas):
- FB/CH-only SP pitchers like Chris Paddack don’t exactly have a sterling record of panning out. Is he the type of pitcher who potentially has more trade value than likely performance value for the Padres?
Kyle Glaser: No, because for the reason you stated most external evaluators have him as a No. 4-5 starter, while the Padres internally have him higher. Opposing teams like him, but not at the price it would probably make sense for the Padres to move him on his own. (A package would obviously be a different dynamic)
Adam (Las Vegas):
- With Garrett Richard’s lengthy injury history, should he be utilized as more of a high-leverage swingman than starting pitcher when he returns back to the mound in 2020?
Kyle Glaser: He can be dominant as a starter. Even if he only gives you 15-20 starts, that's the best role for him when he returns to the mound in 2020
- Where do you think the Dodgers see their own areas of weakness? Are they generally happy to get to 2 WS while lowering the payroll in the process and thus don't see the need for significant changes?
Kyle Glaser: I promise you the Dodgers front office is every bit as distressed as the fan base is with coming up short two years in a row. Lowering the payroll from something atmospheric to merely still top five in baseball won't do anything to affect their ability to compete. They need to upgrade the bullpen and they know it, they need to find a 2B and they know it, and they need to find a way to make more contact, and they know it
- What would it cost for the Astros to get Goldschmidt? Would Yadier Alvarez, Frances Martes, and Derek Fisher get it done?
Kyle Glaser: Maybe considering there is only one year left on Goldschmidt's contract. At the same time, I don't see the Dbacks trading him unless an offer blows them away, and I don't know if that crosses that threshold
Dayton Moore (KC):
- Am I delusional to think we can compete again in 2020? What other reason do I have for not moving Whit for prospects?
Kyle Glaser: Full on rebuilds like the Royals embarked on take 4-5 years to get back to competitiveness. They won't be good again until 2022, at the earliest. As far as Whit Merrifield goes, the guy who just led the majors in hits and stolen bases while playing the middle infield should not come cheap. They are absolutely right to hold him until they get the price he deserves
- Cubs going to trade any young position players?
Kyle Glaser: What they decide to do with Addison Russell will be telling...
Daron (Madison, WI):
- If the Brewers sought an upgrade at one area of need this off-season which position should they prioritize to do so among starting pitcher, catcher, or second base?
Kyle Glaser: Catcher is their biggest deal. 2B can filled until Hiura is ready. Catching is more of a long-term hole
- Anything left in Josh Harrison's tank? 2018 was a far cry from 2017.
Kyle Glaser: My colleague Matt Eddy has a pretty instructive history on how 2B-primary players fall of hard in their 30s, more than other positions. There are some exceptions of course, but Harrison falling off for good would be in line with other athletic, versatile 2B types once they get to his age
shauncore (kansas city):
- Kyle, you're an all around great guy so I know you'll answer this. Do you think the Royals will do anything this winter or will they continue to be the worst franchise in the history of pro sports? They should trade my boy Chase Vallot to get an ace. He's probably the best prospect I've ever seen and know other teams agree.
Kyle Glaser: They have a ring and put together 5-straight 80+ win seasons from 2012-17. That's a far, far cry from the Browns as the worst franchise in pro sports. (And in terms of all-time, where the Clippers and Cardinals were as franchises until about 2007 is far worse than the Royals). As for Vallot, he just hit .184 while getting demoted to Rookie ball...no one sees him as a prospect worth trading much for, and his track record doesn't say they're wrong
Mick (Washington State):
- Have the Mariners got enough prospects for the quality of players they "dumped"? Just getting rid of salary doesn't put people in the seats after they identify with players that are shortly gone in the current regime.
Kyle Glaser: Sheffield and Kelenic are two pretty good players to look forward to, while Dunn and Swanson can contribute. Now, are they going to outdo the production of Paxton, Diaz, Segura, Cano, etc? Probably not, but there's a chance they can help the Mariners here in the next two years and beyond. It's not a total loss
Kyle Glaser: Alright everybody, that will do it for today. Gotta go record the Rangers Top 10 podcast with Ben Badler. Thanks for you questions, and have a great rest of the week