MLB Debuts Are Happening Earlier, But Are First-Time Major Leaguers Actually Getting Younger?
Image credit: Cade Horton (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
Cubs righthander Cade Horton will soon become the 86th player to debut this season, joining the 23,455 players before him as part of the very select club of major league players.
And it inspired us to look at MLB debuts in a broader way. Let’s dig into the numbers.
How Many Players Debut In A Normal Season?
The number of pitchers who debut each season keeps increasing thanks to the rise of turnover in bullpens. While there were 116 debuts on average in the 2000s, we’re seeing nearly 150 pitchers debut per season nowadays.
Hitters haven’t seen the same increase, but there has been a slight uptick, as the number has gone from 92 per season in the 2000s to 112 per year now.
| year | pitcher debuts | hitter debuts |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 110 | 89 |
| 2002 | 119 | 85 |
| 2003 | 101 | 81 |
| 2004 | 114 | 94 |
| 2005 | 100 | 106 |
| 2006 | 132 | 89 |
| 2007 | 124 | 87 |
| 2008 | 119 | 119 |
| 2009 | 128 | 76 |
| 2010 | 105 | 98 |
| 2011 | 132 | 107 |
| 2012 | 117 | 89 |
| 2013 | 126 | 104 |
| 2014 | 132 | 102 |
| 2015 | 150 | 105 |
| 2016 | 158 | 99 |
| 2017 | 152 | 110 |
| 2018 | 151 | 96 |
| 2019 | 153 | 108 |
| 2020 | 132 | 80 |
| 2021 | 161 | 104 |
| 2022 | 144 | 159 |
| 2023 | 152 | 109 |
| 2024 | 147 | 108 |
| 2025 | 50 | 35 |
That means, on average, each team brings up roughly nine first-time big leaguers a year. The 2019 Mariners had the most debuts of any 21st century team with 21 first-time big leaguers, although it wasn’t a harbinger of great things to come. Dylan Moore is the only one of those 21 who is still a Mariner in 2025.
As you might expect, the teams with the most debuts are generally teams that struggle. The 2020 Marlins (which had a coronavirus outbreak that forced temporary callups), the 2015 Yankees and the 2022 Guardians all made the playoffs in years in which they brought up 17 or more players for MLB debuts, but the other seven teams in the top 10 all finished with losing records. Six of those seven finished with fewer than 70 wins.
How Long Does A Draftee Normally Need To Reach The Majors?
For the entirety of the 21st century, the average draftee has debuted four to five seasons after they were drafted. This lumps high school, four-year college and junior college players together, so you can expect college players to end up on the shorter side of that timeframe while high school and junior college players take a little longer.
Horton is right within the normal range. He was a 2022 first-rounder making his MLB debut in 2025, four seasons after he was drafted.
| year | Avg. years to debut | hitters | pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| 2002 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| 2003 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| 2004 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| 2005 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| 2006 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| 2007 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| 2008 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 2009 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| 2010 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| 2011 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| 2012 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| 2013 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| 2014 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| 2015 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2016 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| 2017 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| 2018 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| 2020 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| 2021 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| 2023 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| 2024 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| 2025 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
But those are the averages. There are great stories of perseverance, like Rangers lefthander Brandon Mann, a 2002 draftee who reached the majors in 2018 or righthander Fernando Cruz, a 2007 draftee as an infielder who reached the majors in 2022 as a pitcher.
At the other extreme, we are seeing more and more draftees who speed through the minors as if it’s a speed bump. This year we’ve already seen three 2024 draftees (Cam Smith, Nick Kurtz and Ryan Johnson) make their MLB debuts, with likely more on the way. That follows the 10 draftees from 2023 who made their MLB debuts in 2023 or 2024 and the five 2022 draftees who reached the majors in 2023.
Over the previous six seasons, there were only seven draftees who reached the majors by the end of the following MLB season.
There are a couple of worthwhile notes to the jump in speedy debuts (players who made their debuts by the end of the season after they were drafted).
Firstly, the Angels have been responsible for six of the 18 speedy debuts from 2022 to present. Secondly, this increase is actually a return to what was normal in the 2000s and early 2010s. On average in the 2000s, five draftees reached the majors by the end of the next season, and that trend continued through 2015, when five draftees had speedy debuts.
It then largely stopped, as from 2016-2021, only seven players in six seasons made that leap. The 2012 collective bargaining agreement prohibited teams from offering draftees major league contracts, which could be explained as causing a slight reduction. But few players ever signed MLB deals straight out of the draft, and that rule change didn’t cause a drop in debuts for the 2012, 2013, 2014 or 2015 draft classes.
MLB Debuts Aren’t Getting Younger
If you think the rise of these fast movers is bringing down the average debut age, you’d be mistaken. Thanks to the reduction of the minors, which has encouraged teams to draft more college players, the average debut age has steadily increased in the 21st century. Last year, the average MLB debutante was 25.0 years old. That was the oldest average debut age of the 21st century, other than 2021 and 2022 (which were affected by the lost 2020 MiLB season thanks to the coronavirus pandemic).
So far this year, the average debut age is 25.2. The rise of bigger bullpens and more pitchers going up and down could play a role in that, but even when we just focus on position players, the average age has remained static.
| year | average Pitcher age | Average pos. player age |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 24.3 | 24.5 |
| 2002 | 24.7 | 24.6 |
| 2003 | 24.7 | 24.7 |
| 2004 | 24.5 | 24.2 |
| 2005 | 24.4 | 24.7 |
| 2006 | 24.5 | 24.4 |
| 2007 | 24.6 | 24.4 |
| 2008 | 25.0 | 24.8 |
| 2009 | 24.7 | 24.7 |
| 2010 | 24.6 | 24.5 |
| 2011 | 24.3 | 24.2 |
| 2012 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| 2013 | 24.6 | 24.3 |
| 2014 | 24.7 | 24.4 |
| 2015 | 24.6 | 24.4 |
| 2016 | 24.9 | 24.8 |
| 2017 | 24.7 | 24.2 |
| 2018 | 24.7 | 24.5 |
| 2019 | 24.7 | 24.6 |
| 2020 | 24.6 | 24.3 |
| 2021 | 25.3 | 24.9 |
| 2022 | 25.2 | 24.6 |
| 2023 | 24.8 | 24.4 |
| 2024 | 25.0 | 24.6 |
| 2025 | 25.2 | 24.8 |
So it’s fair to say that some draftees are speeding to the majors faster than normal. But that doesn’t mean that players are getting to the majors at younger ages.
Here’s a look at the breakdown by age, year by year.
| year | under 21 | 21-22 | 23-24 | 25-26 | 27-28 | 29-30 | 31+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 1.12% | 19.10% | 41.57% | 20.22% | 10.11% | 6.74% | 1.12% |
| 2002 | 4.71% | 15.29% | 41.18% | 22.35% | 10.59% | 3.53% | 2.35% |
| 2003 | 2.47% | 16.05% | 29.63% | 37.04% | 9.88% | 4.94% | 0.00% |
| 2004 | 5.32% | 18.09% | 39.36% | 23.40% | 11.70% | 2.13% | 0.00% |
| 2005 | 1.89% | 21.70% | 31.13% | 26.42% | 9.43% | 5.66% | 3.77% |
| 2006 | 2.25% | 20.22% | 33.71% | 30.34% | 10.11% | 2.25% | 1.12% |
| 2007 | 2.30% | 14.94% | 40.23% | 25.29% | 16.09% | 1.15% | 0.00% |
| 2008 | 0.84% | 17.65% | 31.09% | 32.77% | 13.45% | 3.36% | 0.84% |
| 2009 | 2.63% | 19.74% | 28.95% | 35.53% | 7.89% | 2.63% | 2.63% |
| 2010 | 5.10% | 11.22% | 40.82% | 31.63% | 6.12% | 3.06% | 2.04% |
| 2011 | 0.93% | 17.76% | 45.79% | 26.17% | 9.35% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 2012 | 3.37% | 16.85% | 38.20% | 24.72% | 12.36% | 4.49% | 0.00% |
| 2013 | 1.92% | 25.96% | 36.54% | 24.04% | 4.81% | 3.85% | 2.88% |
| 2014 | 3.92% | 15.69% | 37.25% | 27.45% | 14.71% | 0.00% | 0.98% |
| 2015 | 1.90% | 20.95% | 40.00% | 21.90% | 9.52% | 4.76% | 0.95% |
| 2016 | 1.01% | 18.18% | 37.37% | 22.22% | 17.17% | 2.02% | 2.02% |
| 2017 | 3.64% | 20.91% | 36.36% | 28.18% | 10.00% | 0.91% | 0.00% |
| 2018 | 2.08% | 12.50% | 43.75% | 29.17% | 11.46% | 1.04% | 0.00% |
| 2019 | 1.85% | 14.81% | 38.89% | 30.56% | 10.19% | 2.78% | 0.93% |
| 2020 | 2.50% | 27.50% | 31.25% | 26.25% | 7.50% | 1.25% | 3.75% |
| 2021 | 0.96% | 13.46% | 32.69% | 34.62% | 15.38% | 2.88% | 0.00% |
| 2022 | 0.63% | 20.75% | 33.96% | 26.42% | 13.84% | 3.14% | 1.26% |
| 2023 | 2.75% | 20.18% | 35.78% | 22.94% | 14.68% | 2.75% | 0.92% |
| 2024 | 2.78% | 18.52% | 26.85% | 35.19% | 15.74% | 0.93% | 0.00% |
| 2025 | 0.00% | 17.14% | 28.57% | 31.43% | 17.14% | 5.71% | 0.00% |
Thanks to BaseballReference.com’s debut page.
