Kyle Glaser MLB Prospects Chat (7/10/19)
Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody, hope your week has gone well. Just got back from Cleveland, saw a lot of great stuff this past week. Let's get chatting
Mike Blakely (Atlanta):
- What is the latest info on Forrest Whitley? Will we see him in Houston this season?
Kyle Glaser: As of two days ago he was still at the Astros complex in West Palm Beach. It was more for a reset, if you will, than the officially stated shoulder fatigue. As for Whitley in the majors this year, never say never, but I wouldn’t expect it given all he needs to work on.
- Which first round pick are you most impressed or surprised by their start?
Kyle Glaser: We’re talking about guys 15 or so games into their professional debuts. Some haven’t even played at all yet. Others haven’t even signed. It’s beyond premature to judge any of these guys right now.
- Kyle, Who are the top 5 2020 draft spects now that Blaze Jordan is in that class? Would you dare compare him to Bryce Harper, he seems to be the most hyped draft spect since Harper.
Kyle Glaser: A: Our man Carlos Collazo is your go-to for draft questions. But no, Jordan is not in the same class as Harper.
- What have you heard about Cardinals prospects Victor Garcia and Delvin Perez?
Kyle Glaser: Perez has been a non-prospect for evaluators for three years now. Garcia is nine games into his season. There’s been little to no chatter yet. Check back at the end of the year.
Justin (Tucson, AZ):
- Holy mackerel, Dustin May’s stuff looked nasty on Sunday! Velocity and movement on everything. What is his ceiling and what are the chances of him making a debut this year?
Kyle Glaser: May has added velocity to every one of his pitches this year. He's starting to draw some comparisons to Kevin Brown with how ridiculous that sinker has become, and his cutter has become an out pitch, too. There's a legit chance he becomes a perennial All-Star type pitcher. Whether he debuts this year is going to have a lot to do with how healthy the Dodgers rotation remains down the stretch, it's not just him in a vacuum.
- Do the Padres call up Gore down the stretch to pitch out of the pen, ala David Price a few years back?
Kyle Glaser: No.
- Luis Urias or Keston Hiura better long term 2b?
Kyle Glaser: The answer is in our Top 100
Mario (Wheeling Ohio):
- Thanks for the chat Kyle! Do you think that O'Grady or Aquino will ever get a shot at playing full time for Cincinnati? The Reds offense is pretty lame this year, you'd think they might give these two a look.
Kyle Glaser: My pleasure Mario, thanks for joining. That's going to depend on if the Reds pull the trigger and start selling or not. Neither of those guys are going to get significant playing time if the Reds decide to stick with it given they're only 4.5 games back of the division despite their record. Again, it's going to depend on factors outside of them whether they get a shot or not.
Mark (Columbus, OH):
- Thanks for the chat! Is it time to redefine what average power means for prospect projections? Almost 100 Mlb players are on a 30 HR pace, and far more on a 20 HR pace. Most prospect analysts seem to project plus power around 30 HR. Do you personally have a HR threshold for ave power, above ave power, plus power, and double plus power? Do you think the general standard needs to change among prospect evaluators?
Kyle Glaser: We raised the "plus power" bar in the Handbook two years ago to 25-30 home runs after consulting with teams and front office officials all around the league. At that time that was a better reflection of how teams were measuring power. But you're right, with the even greater HR explosion this year, we're going to engage with clubs after the season again to see if they've adjusted their scales and will adjust ours accordingly. Over the last two years, the general standard held by MLB teams - which is what we use as our standard - was 18-20 homers was average power, 21-24 was above-average, 25-30 was plus and 35-44 was plus-plus. There are no "personal" thresholds. We report on what the industry uses and use the same.
Chris (Austin, TX):
- Who reaches the majors first and who do you think has a better career? Forrest Whitley or Mack Gore?
Kyle Glaser: Folks, any and all questions about who the industry thinks will have a better career is in the Top 100. The guy ranked higher is who the expectation is will be better. It's pretty straightforward
Sam Huff (Hickory):
- Adding the futures game MVP to my breakout season, what does my upside as a prospect look like now? How would I compare to the other top C prospects in baseball?
Kyle Glaser: You can find evaluators both inside and outside the Rangers organization who think Sam Huff is the best position player prospect they have - better than Taveras, better than Tejeda, better than Thompson, better than all of them. It's not unanimous or anything, but that opinion does exist out there in the industry. There is an argument for Huff to be on the periphery in the top 100, but there's still probably 8-10 other catchers seen pretty consistently seen as being better prospects.
- What would be a good first season for a raw athlete type player be(someone like Jordyn Adams)? What are the positives and negatives you should be looking for?
Kyle Glaser: Just look for month over month improvement with a guy like that. That's the biggest thing. In Adams' case, he's hit .277 with a .353 OBP in his last two months after hitting .162 in his first month. If he can keep showing signs of improvement throughout the year, it's a good season even if the overall numbers don't look great.
- Hi Kyle, Thanks for the chat! What's your take on Kyle Lewis's season so far? He's hitting at his highest AVG since Short Season and walking way more than he ever has before. Any chance we can see him jump back into the top 100 by seasons end?
Kyle Glaser: It's good to see Lewis having some success again. The power is going to have to manifest before we can talk about Top 100.
- How much do/didCody Bellinger and Evan white have in common at their equal points in development?
Kyle Glaser: Very different players just because Bellinger was a HS pick and White was a college guy. Bellinger had shown premier power by the time he got to Double-A and was younger. White is a really good player, but he's older than Bellinger was and doesn't have the same power. Bellinger was a top 10 prospect in baseball who won Rookie of the Year. White is Top 100 prospect-caliber but it's more in that 90-100 range. Bellinger just showed you more at a younger age, which is not a knock on White. White's really good, but Bellinger was special.
Leo (San Diego):
- Kyle, Thanks for taking the time to answer questions. The Padres are in desperate need of a CF upgrade, maybe even more than they need a SP upgrade. With not much coming up in the near future in CF (Gettys? Reed?), what do you think about the Padres making a move for Starling Marte? What kind of package would the Padres need to come up with in order to acquire him? Who hangs up first?
Kyle Glaser: Marte would be a good acquisition if they could pull it off. It wouldn't be cheap, but honestly I wouldn't hesitate to offer up any of the pitching prospects not named Gore or Patino and any of the infield prospects at Lake Elsinore or Fort Wayne (yes, even Edwards). If the Pirates start pushing for more, then there would have to be some pause. But you're right, the Padres need a CF upgrade if they're going to actually compete next year and as much as Franchy Cordero excites, his inability to stay healthy and his swing-and-miss concerns would make it wise for the Padres to at least explore a trade option. The other guys they have (Myers, Margot, any of the upper-level minor leaguers) aren't the answer.
Joey (New Jersey):
- Trout, Bellinger, Yelich all went 0-for yesterday. Are they toast for the second half?
Kyle Glaser: Yup, busts. All of them. (That's sarcasm, for the record)
- Marco Luciano is #4 on the most recent prospect hit sheet for the absurd offensive numbers he’s been putting up. And rightfully so. But I’m wondering if you have any reports on how his defense has looked at short so far this year. I know coming into the year there were concerns that he’d eventually have to move to a corner.
Kyle Glaser: The reports we've received so far this year are his SS defense has been fine. But again, we're talking about short looks in extended spring and 17 games of AZL action. It's far to early to declare anything definitively.
- So not a top prospect anymore, but can you update us on what you are hearing about Grant Holmes? Had some rough times with injuries and stuff but the numbers this year look pretty good as he's stretching back out. What's the deal?
Kyle Glaser: Like you said, just continuing to stretch back out. He's always had the fastball velocity and a power breaking ball you want to see. Seeing if he can stay on the mound and hold his stuff deeper into his outings is going to be what to watch for here in the next few months.
- Spencer Howard has been great this year, except a little injury hiccup. How do you view him? What is his upside?
Kyle Glaser: Howard is generally seen as a hard-throwing No. 3 or 4 starter. One of those guys who has big stuff but isn't quite consistent enough to get to that front-of-the-rotation caliber. Still, a quality No. 3 would be a really, really good outcome.
- Buehler and Kershaw both coughed up runs yesterday. Just can't handle the big stage. Can LA trade for DeGrom or will they blow another WS?
Kyle Glaser: Um, I think you forgot Buehler winning Game 163 and pitching seven scoreless innings against the Red Sox in his only World Series start last year. And Kershaw dominating Games 1 and 7 of the 2017 World Series and pitching into the seventh with the Dodgers facing elimination last year. But anyway, the Dodgers do have the pieces - both in terms of prospects and young big leaguers - to make a competitive offer for deGrom if they so choose. Whether they do or not is another matter.
- Talk to me about Kevin Padlo. After falling off with a hamate injury and struggling last year, he's back with a vengeance and demolishing AA pitching at 22. Does he have any real prospect fight left in him?
Kyle Glaser: He does. Padlo is the classic guy you never really should write off. Young, upper minors, has impact and the bat and is a good athlete. He's a prospect.
- Is Seth Beer garnering top 100 consideration? For someone with concerns about his hit tool, he has sure hit a lot.
Kyle Glaser: Not really because most of the reports coming back are that Beer is more of a second-division everyday type in the end. If he was a Yordan Alvarez-level hitter it'd be different, but the strong consensus is he isn't that. Still projects as an everyday player, it's just more of that second-division, ok but not great type. The Top 100 is generally guys seen as having All-Star potential.
- It's 5 years in the future. Wander Franco and Vladdy Jr. have distanced themselves from the pack in the MVP race. Vladdy just won his 3rd HR derby and Wander took home MVP honors at the all-star game. My question is, what position are both of them playing?
Kyle Glaser: You do realize Mike Trout will still be in the league in three years right? As long as he's in the AL, he's the one who will be distancing himself from the pack in the MVP race. As for positions, Vlad is probably at 1B and Wander is probably at 3B, but it's not out of the question for them to be at 3B and SS, respectively.
Duhbarre (Barre, VT):
- Because they've often shared an infield, I've noticed the similarity in Taylor Walls and Vidal Brujan's stats. Obviously Brujan is much younger and more toolsy, but are we underrating Walls? A capable switch hitting SS who runs and controls the zone seems like they might deserve some top 100 talk?
Kyle Glaser: There's more explosive tools on Brujan, who is also two years younger than Walls. Walls is a nice player, but it's more of a utility-type projection, which doesn't cross the threshold of a Top 100 prospect. Again, and I can't repeat this enough, there are way, way, way more than 100 prospects in the minors at any given time who become future big leaguers. Just because someone isn't in a Top 100 doesn't mean they don't potentially have a nice major league future ahead of them. Walls is seen as a legitimate prospect with a potential big league future, it's just more in that complementary role than a standout role, which doesn't cross the Top 100 threshold
- Who could you see being a few breakout prospects for the Blue Jays in the second half of the season? Thank you.
Kyle Glaser: Keep an eye on Otto Lopez out in Lansing. He's getting some love
- As dominant as the Astros minor league pitchers were last year, it seems like all the highly rated ones have faltered this year. Do you think this is a blip, or are there concerns that whatever the Astros are teaching doesn't play as well in the higher levels?
Kyle Glaser: It's a reminder that pitchers are incredibly volatile.
William Martin (Chicago):
- Edward Cabrera seems to have taken a step forward this season. In what areas is he making progess and what does he need to improve to get Top 100 consideration?
Kyle Glaser: The biggest thing with Cabrera is just repeating his delivery and slowing it down some to be more consistent with it. But it's in there and he's moving in the right direction, and he's already getting Top 100 consideration. He's not far off.
- What have you heard on the Dodgers' Alex De Jesus? Ben Badler noted him as a surprising assignment to the AZL so I'm curious if you've heard anything
Kyle Glaser: I've heard a lot of good things. And I mean a lot. Look for more in the Midseason Update, which should be out next week.
Ron Roberts (Cincinnati):
- Adonis Medina has fallen out of the Top 100 and his performance has been up and down all season to this point. Is he still viewed as a legitimate prospect?
Kyle Glaser: Yes in the sense that he's seen as a potential future big leaguer - again, just not in that Top 100 level of player
Kiko El Presidente (Valverde Mao):
- If Noah Song didn’t have the Navy Commitment question marks would he have ranked higher? What is his ceiling?
Kyle Glaser: Song was a second-round talent who fell to the fourth round because of his Naval commitment. He was ranked in the BA 500 as that second-round talent, so his ranking was right on. The development of his breaking ball this year gives him a chance to be a really solid starter.
- What prospect do you think is the most likely to be traded at the deadline?
Kyle Glaser: Pick your favorite of the guys in the 50-100 range. We're seeing it become rarer and rarer for guys in the top 50 - and especially the top 25 - to be moved at the deadline. The offseason is different, but at the deadline it's happening less and less.
- What does Daulton Jefferies have to do to work his way onto the radar of top 100? Limited to 3 innings per outing in his return from TJ, but has a ridiculous 94:7 K:BB ratio in his 78 innings, mostly at AA (and is still only 23 despite what feels like an eternity on the shelf).
Kyle Glaser: You're right that Jeffries has been excellent in his return. The biggest thing is to start pitching into the fifth and sixth inning of outings. Once he shows he has the durability to be a starter post-injury, that will get him closer to the top 100 conversation
- Hey Kyle thanks for taking the time to chat! I know Cal Quantril is no longer prospect-eligible, but how is he viewed going forward? Can he still be a mid-rotation starter or is he destined for the bullpen? Padres keep moving him between the bullpen and starting, so hard to get a read on him from them.
Kyle Glaser: Hey Trey, my pleasure. Quantrill actually is still prospect-eligible at this exact moment (he's at 41 major league innings - he graduates once he crosses 50). He's viewed as a potential back of the rotation guy for some teams, for playoff teams maybe more of a long man bridge guy that we see teams turning to more and more. If he can deliver 2 or 3 scoreless innings to get a team from the fifth to the seventh as we've seen him do, there's value there. But he should continue to get some more chances to start here in the second half to see what adjustments he can make.
- What are the White Sox doing with me? Should I stay up with the club the rest of the season and sink or swim or do I need to go back to AAA?
Kyle Glaser: Collins only played 50 games at Triple-A. It's not like he was wasting his time down there. No harm in sending him back down to work on things.
Nick (Castro Valley, CA):
- Do you think Madison Bumgarner + Will Smith for Kyle Tucker could be realistic?
Kyle Glaser: I think the Giants would rightfully want more. But at the same time, the fact both Bumgarner and Smith being FAs at the end of this year complicates things.
- Any updates on Brusdar Graterol? Out for the year? Another surgery in his future? Haven't heard much on his latest injury but he's been on the shelf for awhile...
Kyle Glaser: We should have the full update on Brusdar (and every other prospect of note that is hurt) in the Midseason Updates next week, so make sure and check those out for clarity on his situation
satchel (las vegas):
- Hi Kyle, What is going on with Triston McKenzie, back injury occurred in March, no word out of the Indians. Is this a full season scrap? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: I believe the indomitable Teddy Cahill will have a complete update in the Midseason Update. So again, check back next week
- What is a reasonable return for Trey Mancini, Andrew Cashner, Dylan Bundy?
Kyle Glaser: There are certainly scenarios where you could see the Orioles getting back solid prospects for all three. Not sure if there are any Top 100 guys to be had in there, but you could get some guys worth noting. I do think the O's would be wise to hang on to Mancini though. His value to them as a player is probably greater than anything they'd get back in a trade.
- I am really excited at Nate Pearson, is it possible he gets a cup of coffee this year with the Jays?
Kyle Glaser: If it's in the bullpen yes. Pearson still hasn't shown the ability to start every five days (every other start he's making right now is a two-inning stint)...they're not going to put him in the rotation on a five-day schedule when he's literally never done it before (in the sense of actually giving a full start every five days)
Brandon Johnson (Altadena, CA):
- Based on the performance of Downs and Gray this year, would you call the offseason trade a huge win for LA?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, as have been most trades the Dodgers have made the last few years.
- Hi Kyle, Who is a more successful pitcher in five years, Casey Mize or Nate Pearson. They both look stout right now on the way to bigs.
Kyle Glaser: Again, the answer is in the Top 100. The higher guy is always the answer to "who projects to have the better major league career". That's literally what the rankings are.
satchel (las vegas):
- What is the latest on Sean Murphy - he was primed for A's at some point this season before the meniscus tear. Is he back with Las Vegas at some point this season?
Kyle Glaser: Hopefully. Poor kid just can't stay healthy. The talent is all there.
Lama (Marco Island Florida):
- Who does MacKenzie Gore remind you of and what should we expect in 2020 as far as MLB playing time
Kyle Glaser: Cole Hamels has always been the comp (not Kershaw as Padres Twitter would have you believe). And he'll be starting games in the majors next year. As for workload, that's going to depend a bit on how much he builds up this year and what he gets to.
Tom (Richmond VA):
- Am I crazy to think that Matthew Boyd plus Shane Greene could net the Tigers Pache and Waters from Atlanta?
Kyle Glaser: In theory no, but we've seen teams overly hug prospects their own prospects before. We see it quite often today, especially.
Matt (Los Angeles, CA):
- Despite swing and miss concerns, do you believe Jeremiah Jackson’s power will allow him to be a major league regular?
Kyle Glaser: Hit is more important than power when you're talking about low-level guys, so seeing that much swing and miss in Rookie ball (combined with how bad his swing looked in extended) is definitely reason for some concern. At the same time, Jackson is generally seen as a having the potential to be a future major league regular, yes. It's in there, but he's gotta make some adjustments along the way.
Logan Field (Michigan):
- What’s a realistic return for Matthew Boyd, Shane Greene and Nicholas Castellanos?
Kyle Glaser: The Tigers could get a lot for Boyd and Greene. Multiple top 100 prospects if they packaged them together and played their cards right. Castellanos is worthy of bringing Top 100 prospect-caliber guys back on talent, but the fact he's a free agent at the end of the year really takes away from the likelihood of that actually happening.
- What needs to go right for Pache to be a superstar?
Kyle Glaser: He continues to develop as a hitter and improves his baserunning so that his speed actually plays in games.
Jerry W (Ashburn, VA):
- What do you think of how the Futures Game American team handled JB Bukauskas? Up three times in hurry up mode and then dont manage to get him in the game?
Kyle Glaser: I honestly wasn't even aware this happened. If your description is accurate, I would characterize upset reactions over it as people looking for something to be aggrieved about that really isn't a big deal. Inconvenient? sure. Mildly annoying for Bukauskas and the Astros? Probably. But some scandal or huge issue that will negatively affect his future? No.
- Hey Kyle - thanks so much for taking the time for these chats - really enjoyable!! Just a quick general question about the Phillies system. Other than Alex Bohm, who seems to be growing in BA's eyes, it seems like almost every other prospect is underperforming to some degree. Just me?
Kyle Glaser: Thanks Steve. My pleasure. It is fair to say the Phillies didn't have a great farm system coming into the year, and as such there aren't many players performing at the level of a top prospect. But again, if Bohm works out and Haseley plays some role in the majors and Howard becomes a solid mid-rotation starter, that's a win. Go back and look at the history, it's very rare for any team to have more than 4-5 players who become MLB regulars at a given time in their farm system. Even if only 3 or 4 of the guys the Phillies currently have turn into something they'll be ok, especially with the group of homegrown talent they've already put in the majors (Nola, Hoskins, Kingery, etc.)
- Wonder ur thoughts on Ronny Mauricio, obviously he’s super young for his young. Asking to much for him to develop into 20-25Homer guy with .270-300 avg? N where is he likely to end up on diamond? Thanks.
Kyle Glaser: There are certainly evaluators who believe Mauricio can be that level of player while sticking at shortstop. He's very, very good.
- Braves don't appear to have room for Inciarte when he come back. Trade chip at the deadline to help bolster rotation?
Kyle Glaser: I have a hard time imagining the Braves would get a huge impact player back for a guy on a three-year offensive decline who is about to start getting somewhat expensive, even as good as Inciarte's defense is. He might be more valuable to them as a defensive replacement/platoon-ish outfielder down the stretch than anything they get back in a trade.
- With the Royals being as bad as they have been I need some good news on the prospect front. Any Royals generating prospect buzz?
Kyle Glaser: Singer, Lynch and Kowar are all getting good reviews. Khalil Lee has his believers too. The other position players - not so much
- Thoughts on Logan Gilbert? Feel like he’s been flying under the radar, upside/floor what’s it looking like ? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: The reports aren't quite as bullish as the numbers, although they're still good. The general consensus is that Gilbert is actually pretty raw for a college pick. Has a really good fastball but the secondary stuff has a ways to go, more like what you would normally see out of a high schooler. But he's got some feel, he'll grow into it, and there's the potential for a nice future ahead. There are some arm action questions as well that have some evaluators leaning reliever. He's good, and a worthy back of the Top 100 guy, there's just more questions there than the numbers might otherwise indicate.
- Reminding us that pitching prospects are super volatile then saying Gore will be starting games in the majors next year seem like messages at odds with each other, no?
Kyle Glaser: It's funny, I thought about this shortly after I answered that question. And yes, you are correct. What would be the better way to say it is "Gore has the ability to have a chance to be starting games in the majors next year" with the caveat the same things were said about Luzardo, Whitley, etc at this point last year too. The ability is there, but a lot of unpredictable things can happen.
Kyle Glaser: Alright everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for coming out, and have a great rest of your week.