Kyle Glaser Chat (7/24/18)
Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody, Happy Tuesday. Hope everyone is doing well. Look forward to chatting with you. Let's get started
Brian S (New York):
- How about this blockbuster orioles send Dylan Bundy, Zach Britton, Jonathan Schoop & Adam Jones to the Phillies for Sixto Sanchez, Scott Kingery, Alex Brohm and Adam Haseley? Phillies get a starting 2nd baseman in Schoop and clearly helps in the goal of signing Machado this off season and can play Caesar Hernandez at short. They get Bundy signed through 2021 who could be an ace for the Phillies down the stretch and a lock down closer in Britton. Jones is a solid outfield bat they can play in Right. The Orioles get a future ace in Sanchez, Kingery slots right in at second for the foreseeable future. They also get 2 prospects with incredible upside-I see this as a win win for both teams-your thoughts?
Kyle Glaser: Well as someone who was picked just this past June, Alec Boehm can’t be traded until after the World Series concludes (Trea Turner rule) so that right there nixes this possibility. But in general, you’re also overestimating Adam Haseley by quite a lot – no evaluator sees anything close to “incredible upside” – in general reports are not great. Fourth outfielder is honestly what most evaluators see with him.
- Jake Bauers has already started to show his good raw power in the bigs after his moonshot against severino last night. He seems to have shown much more power in pros than minors so far like gleyber torres earlier this year. What do you believe is the reason this happens sometimes?
Kyle Glaser: First of all, players get bigger and stronger as they get older, so the power shows up more in the majors than the minors consistently. But on top of that trend that pre-dates any controversy about the baseballs, we’re seeing very, very, very consistently the big league ball flies out way more than the minor league ball, no matter what the commissioner’s office says. You talk to guys down in Triple-A, when a rehabbing pitcher comes down they use the MLB ball, and the Triple-A guys marvel at how much more the MLB ball flies. Not to mention pitchers throughout the majors are making it very clear something is up and different with the balls. So you take those two factors – players getting bigger and stronger naturally and way more lively baseballs – and you’ve got the perfect recipe for power spikes in the majors.
- I have noticed over the years how differently organizations handle promotions and how quickly guys move up the ladder. The Rays, for example, are super conservative and typically have guys play entire seasons at the original level started at unless the guy is starting at same level that he was at previous year. What would be your approach? Is this smart or are they too conservative?
Kyle Glaser: I’m personally a big believer in making guys earn their promotions. The Rays at times are overly conservative to be sure, especially with pitchers, but in general I think making guys prove they can own the level they’re at before promoting them is a good way to go, as opposed to some orgs that push guys to full-season ball when they never produced in Rookie ball and are clearly overmatched.
- Has there been any more positivity this season around Delvin Perez since he’s put up reasonable numbers? Is the plate discipline still terrible or does he just need to start working out with Tyler O’neill?
Kyle Glaser: Plate discipline was never Perez’s problem. Even when he struggled last year his walk to strikeout ratio was great. And it still is strong this year, but at the end you’re still talking about someone who lacks the strength to make impact contact of any kind. There are years and years and years of strength gains needed, it’s not something that will resolve itself in one offseason.
Ethan (San Diego):
- Kyle, thanks for doing this...trying to get a read on this - how would Luis Patino compare at this age and level to Anderson Espinoza when he was that age/level?
Kyle Glaser: Espinoza had the plus-plus offering in his changeup that Patino doesn’t have, and he also sat a little more at his top end velocity range and his delivery was a little smoother. Patino has been excellent and absolutely projects as a guy, but he’s not where Espinoza was when he was healthy.
- What have scouts said about Griffin Canning's time at Salt Lake? He seems to be getting lit up by Triple A hitters.
Kyle Glaser: Nothing’s changed. He had two bad starts in Reno and Las Vegas, where everyone gets lit up. Throw out those two starts, and he's got a 3.37 ERA with 20 strikeouts and eight walks in 18.2 innings. Still a plus fastball, plus curveball, SL and CH that are darn good too. He's one of the 10-15 pitching prospects in the game, consistently from evaluators in every org
- One of the neat parts of July baseball is all the J2 players for the previous season getting started. Outside of Wander Franco who has really impressed early? Any likely top 100 BA guys for 2019 from this group?
Kyle Glaser: Ronny Mauricio with the Mets has done some really good things. Whether he's Top 100 in 2019 that may be a little premature, but definitely keep an eye on him
- The recently updated top 100 had only two Pirates on it (Keller and Cruz). Has their system fallen off that badly? Is there hope on the horizon?
Kyle Glaser: The Pirates still have some decent depth. You look at their Midseason Update and see guys like Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer in the bottom half, and both those guys are future big leaguers performing well in Triple-A, which is a heck of a lot better than a lot of other teams Nos. 6-10 prospects. The Pirates don't have an elite system, but it's certainly not a bad one. Combined with the good group of players in their 20s in the majors right now, they've certainly got a window for some good days ahead
- Hi! Thanks for chatting with us. My question is about Minor League catchers. It seems as though there are more decent catching prospects than usual. I can name at least a dozen who seem to have reasonable chances of Major League success. Who do you think are the catching prospects most likely to become productive Major Leaguers? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: It's interesting. On the one hand there does seem to be a really promising crop of young catchers. On the other hand catchers are the most volatile prospects other than pitchers - the number of good-looking young catchers who will eventually fall off or become bit players rather than standouts is larger than any other position. Sean Murphy is actually the guy I feel most confident about given his balance of offensive and defensive skills, but his repeated hamate injuries are concerning. The broken bone and then resulting scar tissue cost him considerable time in both 2016 and 2017, and now his hamate in his other hand needed surgery this year. So yeah, kind of illustrates some of the risk with catchers right there
Adam (Las Vegas):
- Is Luis Urias’ increased strikeout rate a cause for concern considering the general lack of power?
Kyle Glaser: Power is not Urias' game and doesn't need to be, people really need to stop obsessing over his power. Where the strikeout rate is concerning (and the awkward swings he's taken because his leg kick has gotten too big at times) is that it costs him his balance and contact ability. That's what will drive his value. If he hits .310 with a .400 OBP and plays an above-average to plus second base, it's not going to matter if he hits only 6-8 home runs, the Padres need that. But he's gotta keep his balance in his swing to generate his hard contacts - that's where the strikeout rate. and the causes of the tick up, would be concerning
- Julio Urias and Francis Martes. Both former top 10 prospects. Do either attain their frontline potential?
Kyle Glaser: It depends on Urias' shoulder, which no one except the Dodgers know the answer to. It's in there if he comes back healthy.
Adam (Las Vegas):
- Got anything on Osvaldo Hernandez? I don’t recall reading about him in the Padres offseason report.
Kyle Glaser: Yup. It's in the Padres Midseason Update under risers. Which is a good reminder for everyone to check out all our midseason updates, 300 updated scouting reports plus dozens more on risers and fallers in every organization. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/top-10-mlb-prospects-for-all-30-teams-midseason-update/
- Luis Medina (NYY) has not taken that step forward this season that many hoped. Still only control issues or is the stuff not the front line material many thought coming into the season?
Kyle Glaser: There's still plenty of stuff, but I would implore you and everyone else to remember - 93 mph on the corner is a better pitch than 98 three feet of the plate. Velocity absolutely matters, but you gotta be able to throw strikes. Right now, he's not
- What’s a fair return for Matt Harvey?
Kyle Glaser: I mean, he's a slightly-below average ML starter (92 ERA+ with the Reds) whose contract expires at the end of this year. Jhoulys Chacin, to compare, was a vastly better SP with a similar contract situation last year and the Padres held onto him because they couldn't get a prospect worth much. I think the perception of Harvey's value is larger than it actually is because of the name. I'm not sure there's an impact prospect to be had for him, but with most starters on the block struggling, maybe the Reds can extract someone at least a little bit intriguing.
- Kyle what’s a challenge trade you’d most like to see?
Kyle Glaser: I'd like to see the Nats go get J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. If the price is Victor Robles, Carter Kieboom+, make the trade and don't hesitate.
- Who says no-orioles trade Schoop and Britton to Brewers for brewers top prospect Keaton Hiura. Fills a pressing need for brewers st second and adds another arm to the bullpen(imagine Burnes, Hader, Britton and jeffress wow) gives the orioles there second basemen of the future-thanks!
Kyle Glaser: The Orioles aren't trading their best trade chip (Britton) and selling low on their long-term 2B (Schoop) for one prospect, as much as I like Hiura. The Brewers would have to throw in some arms to make that work
- Theres been some talk of the Nats making a trade for Cole Hamels. What type of prospects/package do you think he would fetch?
Kyle Glaser: Hamels' recent struggles cloud this a little bit. As discussed in 3 up, 3 down today, he's got an 11.12 ERA in July and batters are hitting .378 with an .805 slugging percentage - yes, you read those numbers correctly - against his fastball this year. He's still Cole Hamels, and he had a good June so maybe you bank on that, but it'd be surprising if the Rangers get a blockbuster package for him. You look at maybe something like Yu Darvish last year, who also struggled going into the deadline and was going to be an FA at the end of the year (Hamels has a team option), and maybe you see something like that, one Top 100 prospect and two lower level interesting guys. I think that's probably the cap for Hamels,
- When will AJ Puk be coming up to the bigs?
Kyle Glaser: Mid-to-late 2019 at the absolute earliest. He's still not even four months removed from Tommy John surgery. Long road ahead
- Jeter Downs has been consistently productive since being drafted in 2017. He's on pace for 30+ doubles, 15+ HR, 35+ SB all while showing good patience/approach at the plate and solid defensive at a premium middle infield position. He's climbed to #7 within the Reds org but when do we see Downs debut in the overall top 100? Is it fair to say he's in the top 125 conversation right now?
Kyle Glaser: It's fair to say Downs is in the conversation as a Top 150-200 guy right now, but there is still some offensive refinement to go there in terms of pure hitting ability, and he does project more as a 3B than an SS. He hits for impact, runs, can stay in the infield - lot of good things there, you just want to start see him really dominating low A ball and getting into that .280/.370/.440 range rather than the fine but not exceptional .258/.344/.409 range he is now.
Bernie the Brewer (Brew Crew):
- After a horrendous start to the season, Tristen Lutz's triple slash is .306/.392/.565 in the 2nd half all while hitting for a lot more consistent power (14 doubles and 4 HR in 108 ABs). What are reports from scouts on the difference between earlier in the year and now? Do you see his breakout just coming a few months later than predicted by many and make his way into the top 100 in 2019?
Kyle Glaser: I will repeat this over and over and over again: Throw out April Midwest League stats for teenagers in their first full seasons coming from CA/FL/TX/GA, etc. The fact that Lutz struggled out the gate and then improved each and every month should surprise no one. How he finishes will be interesting to see (still 6 weeks left in the minor league season), but no one should have been panicking when he - or any other warm-weather teenager freezing in Wisconsin in April - got off to a slow start
Jahmai Jones (What's Happening?):
- The second half of my 2017 was so promising after being promoted to HiA. I've switched positions in 2018 and have been inconsistent in HiA before being promoted to AA. What are scouts saying about me? Am I still showing the same tools I did in 2017 and just adjusting to a new defensive position?
Kyle Glaser: The most noticeable thing about Jones is he's lost a lot of explosiveness to his game. Last year you'd see him flying around center field, high energy ABs, swiping bags left, driving doubles - this year, with the transition to 2B, everything has been a lot slower, more methodical and not in the good way. The time he's had to devote to learning a new position has definitely taken a toll on other parts of his game when he could just do what he did naturally and be a CF and go play. There are still tools there and his makeup remains among the best in the game, but he's got to rediscover that explosiveness, and hopefully it will come back as he gets more comfortable at 2B
- Simple Q: how do you pronounce Jahmai Jones's first name?
Kyle Glaser: Juh-My. Emphasis on second syllable
- Thanks for chatting with us Kyle! What is going on with Leody Taveras? He seems to have all the tools to be a future star but hasn't really put it consistently on the field. You see glimpses of the potential but hasn't produced what you'd expect an elite prospect to in both LoA and HiA. Is this mainly a product of always being aggressively pushed to leagues he's really young for? Has this approach actually hurt him more than helped? Does he still possess all the exciting tools that had scouts comping him to a young Carlos Beltran?
Kyle Glaser: If I'm being 100 percent honest, I think a Leody Taveras gets a lot of people as a "look the part" kind of guy. I've seen him show some power, and the strike-zone recognition is nice, but I compare him to other 19 year olds in HiA (Jo Adell, even Hudson Potts out in the Cal League) and he doesn't made anywhere near the same amount of impact contact they do. Ultimately, you want to see guys impact the baseball consistently. Leody looks the part and does some nice things, but I think expecting an All-Star CF (not to mention a potential Hall of Famer) like Carlos Beltran is a bit much.
- When are the Phillies going to go all in and just go get Trout?! He's not going anywhere in Anaheim and the Phils have a golden opportunity this year. I know they've got the farm system to do it. Maybe send Moniak, Haseley, Kingery and Hoskins! #BringTroutHome
Kyle Glaser: If you think that package would acquire Trout, you need to reassess his value. What it would take to get Trout is something no team would be actually willing to give up - for the Phillies, try Nola, Hoskins, Velazquez, Hernandez, then add Sixto and another top 5-6 prospect in the system too. You're not getting the greatest player of the last 50 years without giving up multiple controllable big league All-Stars, pitching depth AND top prospects. Basically, that's a trade package that would cripple almost any team - and it's one the Angels shouldn't settle for anything less for with Trout.
Hunter Greene (The Minors):
- What is my ceiling and floor? And will Cincy ever let me moonlight as a shortstop?
Kyle Glaser: You can be an ace, with firebreathing closer also a possibility. And no
Jerry Dipoto's Ghost (Seriously stop trading our prospects!):
- Man, WHY does Jerry Dipoto keep trading all of our best prospects? Gohara? Gone. O'Neill? Gone. Neidart? Gone - though that was a good deal. I'm dreading the thought of losing Kyle Lewis in the next week...
Kyle Glaser: The point of all of this - building a farm system, making trades, etc - is to win the World Series, and you can't do that without making the playoffs. Right now, the trades they've made have the Mariners in playoff position. If they can finish it off, it will have been worth it
- Are the Yankees overvaluing their own prospects? Sheffield and Frazier are nice players but we need a starter! Do you think they would trade both of those guys for Archer?
Kyle Glaser: Most teams overvalue their own prospects, although the Yankees have done a really good job accurately assessing their own guys for some time now, arguably the best job of all teams. Archer has some wicked stuff, but it's important to note his ERA has been climbing for three straight years and his K rate has dropped. It's completely understandable for the Yankees not to want to give up two young players of that caliber for a pitcher with a 92 ERA+ whose production is going down and his contract is going up.
- Including the recent trades, what 3 teams have the best farms in baseball? San Diego, Atlanta, and...maybe Toronto as a sleeper pick?
Kyle Glaser: Tampa Bay is ahead of two of those three you just named
Alex Kirilloff (Fort Myers):
- After losing a year of development in 2017 with TJS, the time off may have actually helped me. After gaining 20 lbs of muscle, I've been hitting for average and consistent power at both LoA and HiA stops in 2018. Have I hit myself into a top 20 prospect in 2019?
Kyle Glaser: Most pro scouting directors we've spoken with have Kiriloff in the 35-50 range rather than top 20, but that's not a knock on him, just a reflection of how much talent there is in the minors right now. He's an excellent, excellent player with a bright future ahead
- If you had your choice of Daz Cameron, Taylor Trammell, or Monte Harrison, who would you choose first and why? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: Our BA Top 100 Prospects has the answer for you
- Danny jansen's ceiling?
Kyle Glaser: Everyday catcher who can actually hit. Those are rare, especially in the American League
R. Starkey (LA):
- Which farm system has improved the most this year? And am I crazy to think the Angels might finally be out of the bottom-10 in farm systems?
Kyle Glaser: They've been out of the Top 10 for some time. They ranked No. 14 entering the year.
- Guerrero, Bichette, Tatis, Cameron, Quantrill - what is this 1996 or something?
Kyle Glaser: Haha more like 1998, but yes. And hey, we've got a Weathers, Izturis, Gonzalez (Luis), Martinez and many more coming up too
Warren (New London):
- Several high school players who got overslot deals are off to great starts in the Arizona League; Cole Roederer (Cubs), Raynel Delgado (Indians), Blaze Alexander (Diamondbacks) to name three. Is there any reason to change the evaluation of any of them yet? Are there any that you particularly like?
Kyle Glaser: Roederer is someone in particular I like, but remember all these guys had really good evaluations to begin with. That's what got them high pre-draft rankings and overslot bonuses. The fact they are excelling in their first taste of pro ball solidifies their pre-draft evaluations, not changes them
- Is Beau Burrows trending toward being a late inning reliever more than a starter in the eyes of scouts?
Kyle Glaser: Generally speaking yes, but it's not an overwhelming "no chance to start" situation
- Is a top 50-100 prospect be a reasonable return for Britton? And anyone else on the O's that could bring a top 100 type?
Kyle Glaser: As we've seen with Familia, Herrera, etc, late-inning relievers on expiring contracts don't bring back Top 100 prospects (Chapman excepted). The only way the Orioles get a Top 100 prospect back for Britton is if they successfully leverage teams against each other, which is certainly possible. It's possible Bundy/Gausman could bring back someone in Top 100 consideration - especially with how desperate teams are for starting pitching - but I think it's also reasonable to the Orioles to hang onto those guys and instead deal Jones/Trumbo/Brach, etc in addition to Britton. Keep in mind though, just because someone isn't in the Top 100 doesn't mean they're not good prospects. Team Top 10s are much better to look at when assessing a trade return's value, there's lots of good players to be had outside the Top 100
- Will Framil Reyes be able to become a productive MLB player?
Kyle Glaser: He's always projected as more of a complementary piece. Power bat off the bench type. If you define that as a productive MLB player, then yes.
- Is Corey Ray on his way to be being a top 100 again or are there still some significant questions to be answered?
Kyle Glaser: He's certainly on the right track and having a tremendous bounceback year. Right now there are still some questions to be answered (still a lot of Ks) but Ray is back at least on the radar, which certainly could not be said last year
2017 Draft Class (Rank Them):
- Hi Kyle! After a full season, Royce Lewis and Jo Adell have separated themselves as the best HS hitters in the 2017 draft class. Of the other HS hitters drafted in the 1st RD and comp. balance would this be a fair ranking as of today...Downs/Lutz/Ramos/Thompson/Beck/Pratto/Seise?
Kyle Glaser: Austin Beck should be higher than that. Lack of power numbers don't worry me. They'll come. Seeing a guy who was labeled a toolshed but raw hitter hitting .290 and keeping his strikeouts down in his first full season, he's right behind Lutz on that list and you could argue for higher
Bob (Best Coast):
- Who is your favorite Heart & Hustle winner of all-time?
Kyle Glaser: David Eckstein. Always
John C. (Naples, Fla.):
- If you were Braves GM, what would you do before July 31 trade deadline? You're probably one year ahead of schedule, but wouldn't it make sense to go get Chris Archer or Jacob deGrom? I'm thinking Kolby Allard, Luiz Gohara, Alex Jackson, Tucker Davidson and Jean Carlos Encarnacion for Archer. Who says no?
Kyle Glaser: Bullpen help. You can do that without mortgaging the farm. As for deGrom...you're not getting him from a division rival without giving up a young, ML ready standout (Acuna) plus two or three of your top prospects (think Anderson+). That's a trade the Braves wouldn't do, and the Mets shouldn't do it without. (Although I guess the Mets are so dysfunctional anything is possible)
- At what point should the Nationals consider trading Bryce Harper? Below .500 and have the fourth-worst record in the National League; shouldn't they trade Harper before he potentially walks for free this winter?
Kyle Glaser: Fifth-worst, but your point stands. Honestly the Nats need to make a decision. If they really, truly are going to go for this given Harper, Murphy and Gio are FAs after this year, then they need to go for it and trade for Realmuto, prospects be damned. They're not going anywhere with their current catching situation - both the offensive production they get and how they hurt their pitchers (see, 5.20 ERA since June 8) - and if they're not willing to do what it takes to get a substantial upgrade for that, then they need to be honest with themselves and start exploring selling.
Aaron (Southern CA):
- Curious if/when you think Keston Hiura and Luis Urias will be up this year for their respective teams? Would you expect a big impact? Related: Both the Brewers and Padres currently rank in the bottom 5 of 2B/SS WAR.
Kyle Glaser: Urias I expect to be up before the end of the year. Hiura is trickier just because he's only be playing 2B for a little over two and half months and still is working on some things there. He's more likely a 2019 debut guy
Taylor Ward (Salt Lake City):
- What do I have to do to get promoted and help Trouty get back to October baseball?
Kyle Glaser: Improve your defense at 3B, which unfortunately just comes with time and reps, not a whole lot you can do to speed that process up. But seriously, Ward has done extraordinarily well for himself this year and has the ability to become a solid third baseman, he's just understandably not there yet given he's played the position for all of four months.
Cedric Mullins (Baltimore):
- Why aren’t I considered a top 100 prospect? It seems like I’m being constantly underrated.
Kyle Glaser: Mullins pretty much fits the bill of a guy who gets underrated. Small, but produces every level and moves quick. We haven't yet found any scouting directors who consider him a Top 100 prospect, and a lot of what we do is reflect industry consensus, but it wouldn't shock me if 10 years from now we look back and Mullins has had a better career than many of those guys.
- Any reports on any of these well-performing, but little known, Toronto prospects: Alejandro Kirk, Otto Lopez, Gabriel Moreno, Dom Abbadessa, Ronald Govea?
Kyle Glaser: Dom Abbadessa is a fantastic athlete who made one of the best catches I've ever seen when he was at Huntington Beach High. Dude has a great baseball pedigree and can really play. Keep an eye on him
Tommy (Las Vegas):
- The Rockies have long been linked to hometown hero Kevin Gausman. Do you think his stuff would fit well at Coors Field and what type of prospect package would it take to get him? Could the Rockies get a deal done without losing Rodgers or Lambert? Thank you so much for the chat!
Kyle Glaser: It's tough. If I'm the Orioles, I don't move Gausman without getting Lambert (you're not getting Rodgers), but if I'm the Rockies, I balk at giving Lambert up. I think it's more likely that in the end Rockies trade from some of their depth and patch up the bullpen, but you never know
- What's a fair return for JA Happy at the deadline? Corey Ray from Milwaukee? Dillon Tate from New York? Jojo Romero/Franklyn Kilome from Philly?
Kyle Glaser: Having a really good start on Sunday certainly helped both Happ and the Blue Jays. Without speaking to each of those players specifically, getting someone who ranks in a team's Top 10 prospects - but is outside the Top 100 - is probably the right range
- How impressed are you with what Pardinho is doing in his debut season?
Kyle Glaser: Extremely. A 17 year old from a non-traditional baseball country going straight to the Appy League and doing what he's doing...yeah, that's the definition of impressive
- Grant Lavigne or the Field. Who has a better chance at being the Rockies 1B in 4 years?
Kyle Glaser: Generally speaking, take the field over one high school 1B draftee with 25 professional games under his belt. That said, Lavigne's approach is way advanced, his power is real and he's got a serious ceiling. If it's the field (McMahon, namely) over Lavigne, I wouldn't be shocked. If it's Lavigne, I also wouldn't shocked. Both outcomes would do the Rockies just fine.
Mike B (New York):
- I really wanted my team to take Kyle Isbel in the draft and he's raking in his debut. Can he stick in centerfield? How good can he be?
Kyle Glaser: Generally speaking Isbel is considered to be kind of a 2B/CF utility guy long term, but a big leaguer who can stick around with an NL team for a long time. Start some years, come off the bench in others. That's a very, very solid outcome for a third-round pick.
Kyle Glaser: All right everybody, that will do it for today. Thanks for chatting, hope you all have a great rest of your week.