Kyle Glaser Chat (7/20/18)
Kyle Glaser Chat (7/20/18)
Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody, happy Friday. Look forward to chatting with you all. Let's get started
Fabio (So Cal):
- It looks like the Dodgers got of cheap getting Machado. They didn’t give up Verdugo, Ruiz, or Buehler. You take.
Kyle Glaser: We’ve seen pretty consistently you’re not going to get a team’s top young players or prospects for a rental in this day and age. Aroldis Chapman is the exception. Not the rule. Considering what JD Martinez got the Tigers last year, the O’s should be doing cartwheels. The Dodgers gave up some good players, but no one that they had planned as playing a huge role for them anytime soon. That’s a testament to the big league team they’ve built and the farm system they’ve put together. It’s not really getting off cheap – it’s paying market price for a rental and not having to worry about it because you’ve got a ton of options through your entire organization, majors on down.
- Of the 4 teams involved in the Machado and Hand deals, who do you think did the best and worst?
Kyle Glaser: The Dodgers did great for themselves. Got a stud who can push them over the top while keeping all the guys who project to be in their starting lineup both present and future. That’s the dream scenario. As for worst, no one really got hosed. Each team got what they needed and did the best under the varying circumstances.
Jason (San Diego):
- If the Padres had a choice of getting Tucker from the Astros for Cimber and Hand or Mejia which deal would they have taken?
Kyle Glaser: Eh, each team has their own individual preferences — and often so do different decision-makers within each team – so it’s hard to say 100 percent, but on a macro level, Tucker is considered a better prospect industry-wide.
Dammit dayton (KC):
- Dayton moore traded joakim soria, scott alexander, and matt strahm in the past year as money dumps and just bad bad trades. The padres just traded Hand and Cimber for a top 25 prospect in baseball. Which package of relievers is more valuable?
Kyle Glaser: Hand and Cimber. Hand is the best pitcher of any of those five you named – even when Soria was in his prime – and that goes a long, long way in who you get back.
- Okay so if my Phillies could have a do-over, who would they take #1 instead of the hugely disappointing Moniak?
Kyle Glaser: Nick Senzel.
- Will my Rockies let CarGo and Parra walk this offseason and finally give Dahl and Tapia a chance to play every day in the OF in 2019?
Kyle Glaser: That would be the right thing to. Whether or not the Rockies actually do it may be a different story
- Will Baseball America ever add player comps to their prospect profiles? That'd be REALLY awesome if you did! Lofty and unrealistic comps would be dumb (nobody is the next Ruth or Mays) but reasonable comps would be a lot of fun!
Kyle Glaser: There a bunch of comps in our Baseball America Prospect Handbook, so I do suggest browsing around in there (Vlad Jr.-Frank Thomas, MacKenzie Gore-Cole Hamels, etc). When we get a good one we aren’t afraid to share it, but sometimes comps can get a bit lazy and put unreal expectations on a player, so generally speaking at least I prefer to let the player just be who he is without getting to caught up in finding exactly who his major league comp should be, especially once you get beyond the very top tier of prospects.
Joe W (NYC):
- Is George Valera the next Soto?
Kyle Glaser: No one has done what Juan Soto has done at age 19 since Mel Ott in 1928. It may not be another 90 years before we see something like this again, but it’s going to be a lot longer than 2-3.
- If Gavin Lux keeps hitting is he as good a prospect as say Carter Kieboom or is there a pretty decent gap between the two from evaluators?
Kyle Glaser: There is a gap between the two, which is reflected in our Top 100. Still both very, very good prospects.
- Taylor Trammell looks like a potential stud. Higher ceiling than Victor Robles possibly?
Kyle Glaser: Robles was in the majors at the same age Trammell is in High-A. Trammell is really really good, but Robles when he’s healthy is a different animal.
- What's it going to take for Seuly Matias to enter top 100?It seems people look at him as a gimmicky. He will hit for huge power but will never hit enough to do much else.
Kyle Glaser: A strikeout rate under 30 percent at the Class A levels. Seriously, go back and look at the history of guys with K rates over 30 percent in low A and especially HiA. It’s career .196 hitter Joey Gallo and guys who never made it. Striking out that much against A-ball pitching, at any age, is the red flag of all red flags.
Travis (Omak, WA):
- Why did Kyle Lewis drop over 40 spots? He was moved up the rankings a few spots in an update a few weeks ago. Has his value really dropped that far?
Kyle Glaser: I personally did not feel like Lewis should have dropped quite that far, but he did need to drop. There’s a lot more swinging and missing than you want to see, and the plus power hasn’t shown up. With his knee injuries really affecting his ability to stick in center long term for evaluators, you really want to see him hitting better as a 23 year old against high A pitching to feel 100 percent confident he can mash in a corner. The tools are still there, he’s running better and he’s still rounding into form, and there is still an upside there higher than quite a few guys above him, but his age, injury history and .260/.303/.429 slash line with 55 Ks and 11 walks in HiA work against him.
- What are the current reports on Elehuris Montero saying in terms of upside, position, player comp? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: There’s real plus power to all fields there and really good hand-eye coordination. He has a chance to be a really, really good hitter. Defensively it’s a lot of fringe-average projections at third base, but it’s playable enough and he’ll hit. It’s all there for him to be everyday third baseman with some big power numbers.
- Thanks for doing the chat. Who are some of the rising prospects who just missed the top 100? Are there any that have caught your eye but maybe haven’t gotten the attention they deserve?
Kyle Glaser: Hey Brett, my pleasure. Peter Lambert, who was on a previous iteration of our Top 100, is someone I personally feel isn’t getting the love he deserves and will end up being a lot better starting pitcher than a lot of other more hyped guys.
Derrick (San Jose):
- You guys seem really high and aggressive on Wander Franco, hes dominating but it is rookie ball. You guys must be sold on bat. Do you guys think he is Juan Soto like with the bat?
Kyle Glaser: Putting aside any Juan Soto comps for the aforementioned reasons, Franco was the No. 1 international prospect in his class, was a Top 100 guy before ever playing a professional game, and has always projected to hit and hit and hit. It really was just a matter of him showing it once he came stateside, and now he is in the loudest ways possible.
Dale (Carbondale, IL):
- Do you see Nolan Gorman cracking next seasons top 100 or will the strikeouts limit his upside too much?
Kyle Glaser: Next season is a little aggressive, but as guys ahead of him graduate and if he keeps hitting, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility
- Is Wander Javier's drop out of the 100 have to do with the injury? Will he be back if he hits next year?
Kyle Glaser: Yes and yes
- Is it too early to call Riley Pint a bust? Or what's his future in Colorado?
Kyle Glaser: There's still potential plus stuff across the board there, but horrible control and repeated injuries - shoulder stiffness to start the year (not forearm as was inaccurately reported elsewhere) followed by an oblique strain now - he's certainly not on the right track. I do know of some other clubs who have written him off, but the Rockies remain genuinely optimistic. It's hard to see him ever throwing enough strikes to be a starter at this point, but maybe he can figure it out enough to be a Jordan Hicks type reliever - big velocity, not great control, but has enough oomph to get outs even if the strikeout numbers aren't what you'd expect with his stuff. That's honestly probably the most likely positive outcome at this point, but we'll see what he looks like when he comes back from this latest setback
Jarrod D (Work):
- Kyle, my dude! You got anything on Cole Roederer? Loved the BA draft report on him and hes started off mashing. Was curious if you've heard anything.
Kyle Glaser: Haha sup bro. You speak my language, I love it. I think we've seen in recent years that smaller, less physical guys still get dinged as amateurs even if they show tools and impact, and that's what happened with Roederer. I mean it's a five tool, lefthanded hitting center fielder who raked playing the best HS competition in the country in SoCal...that's a first-round guy, but his smaller frame scared some people off (enough power to play in a corner if he slows down, etc, type of concerns). But the Cubs did the right thing and bet on the skills and track record, and he's showing it right now in the AZL. He needs to stay healthy, which is a legitimate concern with him, but his ability is real
Alain (San Diego):
- How does padres farm system stack up against those cubs and astros farm systems at their peak before their championship runs?
Kyle Glaser: Both systems were much more loaded up on bats, and advanced quick-moving bats at that, which is an important and relevant distinction given how much riskier pitchers are. That said, the Padres openly acknowledge it and are trying to address it, which you saw with the Mejia trade - getting a bat who can help soon.
- Hey Kyle, who do you see as the Rockies future 1B? Spanberger, Ramos, Lavigne, other?
Kyle Glaser: We'll be releasing our Rockies midseason Top 10 shortly, and you'll find your answer there with which one is ranked highest
Ken (Chillicothe, MO):
- Is there much hope that Bubba Starling will ever get to the majors? Is his superior defense worth a roster spot when rosters expand in September?
Kyle Glaser: Royals fans' obsession with Bubba Starling continues to amaze me. Considering he just dislocated his finger (stumbling out of bed, at that) and needs surgery and will be out another six weeks after not playing since May with an oblique strain, the answer is no
- Will Lewis Brinson ever figure it out and get his rate stats higher?
Kyle Glaser: I think it's important to note Brinson has barely a half-seasons worth of career ABs under his belt. He has improvements to make, yes, but he has the aptitude and athleticism to make them and there is a lot of time ahead for him to improve
- Do you think that my Phillies might try to trade for Nolan Arenado since we didn't get Manny Machado? There have been Arenado trade rumors lately and we seem like a good spot for him, even if we get Manny as a free agent.
Kyle Glaser: The Rockies are two games out of playoff spot and were the hottest team in baseball going into the All-Star break. Arenado is not going anywhere.
JP (Jenks, OK):
- Hey Kyle, thanks for chatting today. Can you tell us anything about Luis Rengifo? I've seen a few blurbs that have said "Utility player" but what the kid has done this year does not scream utility player to me... He's dominated at every stop so far.. is Dee Gordon with a better plate approach and less speed a pretty fair comp?
Kyle Glaser: Hey J.P., Rengifo does project for most evaluators as a utility player because they don't see an explosive, plus carrying tool anywhere. One of the big things that's come up is he hits the ball on the ground a lot, so he's going to be somewhat BABIP dependent. The years he finds holes his slash line will look great, the years he doesn't it won't. He's a major leaguer, no one doubts that, but without plus defense or plus power or plus hit, it's hard to be an everyday guy. Still, considering the Angels haven't had a viable starting second baseman since Howie Kendrick, I would not be shocked if he forces his way into their lineup as a starting 2B, No. 8 hitter type at some point.
- Best Hit/Power/Speed guy in the minors? Addell, Trammel, other?
Kyle Glaser: Fernando Tatis Jr
- Is Yusniel Diaz a difference maker to you? And from a fantasy aspect, would he lose value in your mind? The cupboard is pretty damn thin in Baltimore.. not sure who is going to drive in, or not sure who he's going to drive in...
Kyle Glaser: He has a chance to be, and playing in Baltimore and some of the AL East parks he has a chance to get to .270-.280, 20-25 HRs. And there's always going to be guys you can acquire or draft or bring in. Mancini and Schoop, despite their down years, still project as long-term Orioles starters and there will be more guys coming in trades soon. And considering playing time was going to be hard to come by in the Dodgers outfield, I actually think Diaz's fantasy value goes way up in Baltimore because he'll be an unquestioned everyday starter
- What is Daz Cameron's ceiling? Could he turn into a 20/20 player like his dad?
Kyle Glaser: First of all, we have to give Daz enormous credit for how much he's improved. In mid-June of last year he was hitting .202 in a repeat year at low Class A. And since then he's been on an absolute tear. It's been a monster improvement, and he gets major props for it. The evaluators we've spoken with see Daz as more of a solid regular than an All-Star like his Dad, but in his best years 20-20 isn't out of the question, especially with his athleticism and how balls fly out in the majors now.
Steve Sommers (Queens):
- Are late bloomers like Jeff Mcneil (mets) and Brandon Lowe (TB) underrated on top 100 and top 10 lists? Both are hitting the cover off the ball at higher levels of the minors and are major league ready-shouldn't that increase their value?
Kyle Glaser: It's interesting how McNeil is labeled a late bloomer, but he's actually always hit - dude's never hit below .290 in any season, at any level. Power spikes as a 26 year old in the minors are always a little fishy, especially in Double A where you're way older and more physically developed than your competition and then in Triple-A at Las Vegas, but guys who consistently put the bat on the ball and offer you some defensive versatility are always valuable, even if they aren't everyday guys. That's how most see McNeil at this point. Lowe is a little more highly regarded as a potential everyday guy, but just got pushed out by the insane quality of the Rays system. He'd be top 10 in a lot of systems
- If Shohei has to have a TJ surgery would it still be possible for him to play as a DH?
Kyle Glaser: As in right after his surgery? Position players who have TJ still don't come back for 11-12 months. It's a major reconstructive surgery that affects your entire arm in recovery. It's not something you can just get and go swing a bat two weeks later.
- Is Byron Buxton EVER going to be good on offense? Will he figure things out or forever be a disappointment?
Kyle Glaser: I'm probably the wrong guy to ask because I've never believed in Buxton's swing.
Mark Appel (College):
- Why do some college pitchers, like me! do so poorly in pro ball? How could that many scouts be wrong, especially since I never had a history of injuries?
Kyle Glaser: Scouting anyone, college, high school, international, is projection. You can project how someone's stuff is going to play against professional hitters, but you never really know until they step on a mound and actually face a professional with the same strength and experience as you do. Scouting is an art, not a science, and no one is truly ever a "safe" pick. At the same time, for what it's worth, college pitchers still make up most of the aces in today's game - Scherzer, Sale, Verlander, Kluber, Cole, Nola, deGrom - they're still a vastly, vastly better bet than any high school arm.
Wild Thing (Cleveland):
- Is there any hope for Brady Aiken?
Kyle Glaser: The history of guys who have more walks than strikeouts in low A and then don't pitch at all the next season reaching the majors is not a good one.
- Do you see Yates and Ross both traded and to who?
Kyle Glaser: Ross more than Yates, and you can consult our trade deadline preview to see where the fits are https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-mlb-trade-deadline-preview/
- Should the Yankees go after Archer? With his current performance this yr can they get away w/ acquiring him w/o giving up Sheffield?
Kyle Glaser: The Rays aren't going to trade him to a division rival without getting a little something extra back. Considering the Yankees farm system is way down post graduations, it's hard to see them getting any starting pitcher of significance, especially one under contract like Archer, without dealing Sheffield at the top of the package
Jeremy (San Diego):
- Was the Hand trade a good deal for San Diego and if you think so, why?
Kyle Glaser: Yes. It would have been good to see them couch it with another interesting low-level arm or something and make it a 2-for-2 or 2 for 3 trade rather than a 2-for-1, but they needed a young hitter badly and they got it for two players who, while good, weren't going to raise the Padres out of last place just by virtue of the fact they are relievers
Jesse (Manitoba, Canada):
- Do you think Jay Happ's poor July dampened the potential return the Jays will get? Is there anyone else the Jays would like to move in their rebuild?
Kyle Glaser: People like to say small sample sizes don't matter, but in the run-up to the trade deadline they often do. He and the Jays could really use a good start or two to get him going on a high note after three consecutive poor starts, if its two more bombs or mediocre ones, they're going to have a problem. And I discussed the Jays predicament and what they have to offer here in our trade deadline preview https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-mlb-trade-deadline-preview/
Robbie T. (Boston):
- Who is the most likely trade target for the Atlanta Braves?
Kyle Glaser: Relievers, relievers, relievers. Zach Britton and Brad Brach, Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen, Tyler Clippard and Seung Hwan Oh, Joakim Soria and Xavier Cedeno...some combination of two bullpen arms to replace Peter Moylan and Same Freeman. That's the target, and should be
- The Braves are obviously in a great spot in the NL East. If they were to try to pry deGrom away from the Mets, what kind of package would it take? I don’t expect this to happen but one can dream.
Kyle Glaser: What it would take for the Braves to get deGrom from a division rival is a package the Braves would unequivocally say no to. As in Ronald Acuna, Ian Anderson, Drew Waters plus one or two more. You're not getting deGrom from the Mets without a young ML ready standout and 2-3 of your best prospects. Basically, a trade the Braves wouldn't do, and a trade the Mets wouldn't accept anything less for.
Tim (Hoboken, NJ):
- I know he's a hometown favorite, but trading Gennett at the top of his offensive game seems like a no-brainer. Shouldn't front offices consider who's waiting in the wings (Senzel, India) when considering who to trade?
Kyle Glaser: Who is waiting in the wings absolutely comes into account when considering a trade, but you have to keep in mind Senzel has had trouble staying healthy and India is in Rookie ball. It's not like they're ready right this minute. You only move Gennett at the right price, and as a 28-year-old middle infielder who is on pace to be a batting champion, that price is going to be, and should be, very, very expensive.
- what do you see the yanks and cashman doing for trades
Kyle Glaser: We covered that in our trade deadline preview. Check it out here https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-mlb-trade-deadline-preview/
Junior (Anaheim, CA):
- Will the Angels move any of their RP will trade value?
Kyle Glaser: A lot of it will depend on how they come out of the break here. If they drop 7 of 10 and are done, yes. If they come out and go 8-2 and close on Seattle, they'll keep all the bullpen arms they have because lord knows they need them
- What do you think of Arizona's farm system this year? Do you think it's taken any steps forward? Is it still in the bottom ten? Thank you!
Kyle Glaser: It's still bottom 10, probably bottom 5. The one top 100 prospect is hurt (Duplantier), the most exciting (Chisholm) has some very, very serious questions about his ability to make contact, and last year's Top 10 pick (Smith) is being turned in as a low-level organizational player by opposing scouts. That all said, what matters is what's happening at the big league level, and the Dbacks are in good shape there, so just focus on that and they'll backfill their farm system in the meantime.
- If the Cardinals sent Carlos Martinez to the Yankees, what could the prospect package look like?
Kyle Glaser: I don't think the Yankees have enough to do it.
- What are your thoughts on Florial and Sheffield's projections?
Kyle Glaser: Sheffield has every chance to be a really good No. 3 starter. Florial I personally am a lot lower on and don't think he'll hit enough, but those who like him see a potential above-average outfielder. Not an all-star, but a very good player
Ya boy (Jenks):
- Greetings Kyle! Why do pitchers control regress quite a bit going up the ladder in the minors (Jose Suarez) for example didn't walk many batters in HiA & AA but is now walking a ton.. is it because the competition is greater and they try to nibble around the zone to not get hit?
Kyle Glaser: It's mainly because they can get a lot of guys to chase out of the zone at the lower levels (A-ball especially), where in AAA you're facing advanced hitters who lay off it. That's the main reason why you see that, guys whose walk totals spike in AAA. It's also a huge component of what evaluators look for when scouting the lower levels - strikes in the zone vs strikes out of the zone they know the pitchers won't get at the higher levels, and plays a huge role in their evaluations of who will keep rising and who will stall out
Jack (St. Louis, MO):
- With a mediocre team stuck in the middle of a league full of haves and have nots plus a top ten that is not very exciting outside of Reyes, do you think the Cardinals could reload quickly by dealing guys like Mikolas, both Martinez, Norris, and/or Carpenter?
Kyle Glaser: They could, yes. It hasn't been the Cardinal way to rebuild, but things are obviously different now. I think you're more likely to see some of the position players and relievers go (Carpenter, Gyorko, Norris, etc) than the starters, but it all depends on what's offered
Ghost of Ron Gant (Atlanta):
- It seems like there are numerous athletic, toolsy 20/20-type OF prospects right now - guys like Acuna, Trammell, Monte Harrison, Jo Adell, and others. Are 20/20 or 30/30 players still as important as they seemed to be in the 1980s and 1990s or do scouts care that much about the power/speed combo?
Kyle Glaser: That power speed combo is still extremely tantalizing. But again, a big component of going 20-20 is making enough contact to get to whatever power you have, and not all these guys will. But any player who can go 20-20 or 30-30 is still someone highly valued and highly sought after
Jake (San Diego):
- How far do you think this injury will cause Fernando Tatis to fall in the top 100? Will he still be in the 50-100 range do you think?
Kyle Glaser: He's not falling at all. Mike Trout, Dustin Pedroia, Bryce Harper, all these guys did the same thing sliding headfirst and were still stars when they returned. Tatis stays right where he is
Colton Welker (Keeps Hitting):
- I've been hitting ever since I was drafted and am now on the verge of being promoted to AA in my 2nd full season. Where is the love? Are the Nolan Arenado (minor league version) comps accurate? When will I crack the top 100?
Kyle Glaser: The concerns is this: .271/.332/.387 with three home runs outside of Lancaster, and with a bit of a funky swing that evaluators don't see any power coming from. He's got some feel to hit and he plays a good third base defensively, but there are a lot of power questions on Welker that haven't been answered in the affirmative.
Kyle Glaser: All right everybody, that will do it for today. Thanks for chatting, and hope you all have a great weekend