Konnor Griffin, Eury Perez Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (June 9)
Image credit: Konnor Griffin (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Every Monday morning, we’ll highlight 10 players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. Data will usually be through Saturday of that week, but may include some data from Sunday games. These are not full scouting reports, but often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we looked into the rule-breaking progress that Jacob Melton has made, as well as the improvements that have put Brady House on the cusp of the majors. This week we’ll discuss:
- Just how good is Konnor Griffin?
- The new-and-improved Eury Perez
- Parker Messick’s development
- What’s holding back Ernesto Martinez Jr.?
- What Orelvis Martinez looks like post-PED suspension
- Otto Kemp might surprise a lot of people
- Bonus: Free Roman Anthony!
10 Statcast Standouts
Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Pirates
We took a brief look at Griffin back in back in May, and compared him to Bryce Rainer. At the time, I wrote that I slightly preferred Rainer. That’s no longer the case, and not because of Rainer’s season-ending injury. Since that snapshot, Griffin has leveled up with a massive improvement in his chase rate, as well as an uptick in his zone contact rate:
- Chase Rate: 32.1% to 28.5%
- Zone Contact Rate: 84.5% to 85.6%
Griffin is now sporting a profile that is plausibly plus or better across the board. His raw power is an easy 70, though it might play down to a 55 or 60 if he can’t improve those launch angles. He’s making 70-grade or better contact against fastballs, in zone and out of zone.
The improvement in swing decisions is remarkable, and that is now looking like a strength, as well. If we peer a tad deeper than the bottom-line chase rate, we see it’s solid gold against sliders, breaking balls and offspeed pitches. Generally speaking, it’s more important to see low chase rates against non-fastballs than against fastballs. Griffin ticks that box, and then some.
We’re talking about a tooled-up mega prospect, who might have been in contention for the first-overall pick, if not for scouts’ questions about his hit tool. Not only has he answered that, his data are making the case that he might actually have a plus hit tool.
Let’s go a little deeper:
The only fastballs that Griffin is missing are ones way above the zone or on the black. He’s blistering the ball everywhere in the zone, except up and in. Four seam fastballs are generally thrown up in the zone, and that’s just where he likes it.
Sinkers are usually thrown lower in the zone. Guess what? Griffin blisters sinkers low in the zone.
Sliders are currently Griffin’s biggest weak spot, as he’s whiffing a lot in zone. He also isn’t doing a ton of damage in zone to this point in his career. If he had a high propensity to chase, this would be more concerning. However, his chase rate sits at a very respectable 25.4%, which is about 8% better than the major league average.
The chart does suggest some pretty bad chases, so it’s not an inconsequential concern, but we’re also talking about a player making the leap from high school. It stands to reason he’ll adjust as he gets more playing time.
How good is Griffin? His data is telling a story that is very compelling. If he continues to put up these metrics, he should definitely be in the conversation eventually as a top 10 prospect, perhaps even top five.
It’s no surprise that the Pirates are promoting him to High-A:
Eury Perez, RHP, Marlins
The arsenal chart above is displaying five pitches, but it’s actually six. The curveball includes some sweepers, which Perez added to his arsenal along with a sinker. These aren’t the only differences Perez has made as he’s worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. Let’s break down the changes:
- Reduced his extension from 6.9 feet to about 6.3 feet
- Lowered his release point a little
- Velocity is all the way back
- He’s not getting under his fastball as much, losing about 0.6 inches of ride when adjusting for the release heigh, which may have unlocked both the sweeper and the sinker
- The sinker looks a lot like the fastball, but spins less and gets about 4 inches of SSW depth
- The sweeper is a monster pitch, touching 17-18 inches of sweep, which is absurd for a pronator with plus ride on his fastball
- The sweeper will come in at the same velocity band as the curveball, but sweep instead of bite down, suggesting these two pitches should work well together
- The changeup is improved, with more depth and run and gaining about two inches on both planes, mostly due to changing the spin axis
Those changes add up to six pitches that are all average to plus-plus. Perez returns to the mound today, with a tweaked arsenal, and a couple of new pitches. He’s looking like a revamped version of the phenom who dominated in his rookie season.
Parker Messick, LHP, Guardians
We have data for Messick dating back to 2022, which allows us to take a look at how he’s developed over that time frame. His fastball, which sat 90.3 mph in 2022, has now ticked up to a more playable 92.7 mph. He’s raised his arm slot a little, which is allowing him to get much more vertical on his spin axis. Overall, it’s taken the pitch from unplayable to about a 40 to 45 from a pure stuff perspective. But it will likely play up because his changeup is so good.
The key development for Messick has been with the changeup, which, as mentioned, is his bread-and-butter pitch. Despite being more vertical with the pitch from a spin axis perspective, he’s getting about three inches more drop from seam-shifted wake effects. This has allowed him to throw it 2-3 mph harder while still getting more depth than he was at the start of his career. It’s a clear double-plus pitch, both from a raw stuff perspective and performance stand point. Over almost 200 pitches, he’s generating more than 55% whiffs per swing and over 27% whiffs per pitch.
His sinker is interesting, especially against lefties. It doesn’t grade well in a vacuum, but it gets a healthy amount of seam-shifted wake. He throws it about two mph slower than his four-seam fastball, which may be limiting the effectiveness of the pitch.
Messick throws his sweeper more to righties than lefties, which is curious, as it’s usually a pitch used in same-handed matchups. He rounds out his arsenal with an effective cutter/slider, which sits above the important 85 mph threshold that sliders need to reach to be effective.
It’s easy to see how Messick generates whiffs, especially with the changeup. He gets a ton of chases down and away:
Overall, it results in an excellent 38.8% chase rate with the changeup against righties and a 40.6% chase rate against lefties. This is the pitch that will carry Messick to the majors.
Vaughn Grissom, 2B, Red Sox
When the Red Sox traded away Chris Sale, the key player they acquired was Grissom. As recently as 2023, Grissom was performing extremely well at Triple-A following an excellent debut in the majors the year before. Since then, however, he’s struggled to perform, barely scratching an above-average batting line at Triple-A in 2024 and now slightly below-average this year.
We see tremendous bat-to-ball ability, evidenced by his long track record of hitting for a high average throughout the minors, as well as the 90.6% zone contact rate. He also has roughly average raw power, with launch angles optimized for batting average rather than home run power. He also doesn’t chase too much, except against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, against which he’s really struggling this season.
Let’s take a look at how he’s developed compared to the previous two seasons:
There are a lot of numbers on these charts, so let’s focus in on the two metrics that really matter:
- His 90th percentile exit velocity is now above-average after being below-average in 2023 and cratering in 2024
- His zone contact is now plus-plus, even better than his dominant Triple-A performance in 2023
These numbers demonstrate that, despite the surface-level numbers suggesting Grissom has regressed, his underlying metrics point to a player who is hitting the ball a lot harder and making a lot more contact while doing so. That’s significant. It’s hard to say if that will be enough to catapult Grissom back to majors, especially with the Red Sox, but there’s a lot of talent here waiting for the right opportunity.
Marquis Grissom Jr, RHP, Nationals
Growing up, I was a fan of the Montreal Expos, and by extension, the great Marquis Grissom. While Grissom Jr.’s data does not necessarily stand out, he’s made it all the way to Triple-A, and he’s interesting to me from a lineage and nostalgia standpoint. Often, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. In this case, it fell within the same orchard.
Against lefties, Grissom throws his changeup 56% of the time, making it his primary weapon. You can see from the arsenal chart that it moves a lot like the fastball. Despite the high usage, he’s getting whiffs on more than 50% of swings and over 30% of the time he throws it. Lefthanded batters at Triple-A clearly can’t pick up the pitch. Against righties, he’s about 40-35-25 fastball, changeup, slider. The changeup is still effective against righties, but it’s not as overwhelming.
Grissom’s fastball is solid, with above-average vertical ride offset by substandard velocity. Grissom’s slider is being picked up quite easily by Triple-A batters resulting in really low chase and whiff rates. He may be better served dropping it entirely and focusing on throwing the fastball-changeup pair exclusively.
Grissom’s changeup will likely play, especially given how much it looks like the fastball. He won’t blow hitters away with either offering, but there’s enough here to suggest he could be a useful reliever in the majors. This ex-Expos fan is rooting for that to happen.
Orelvis Martinez, 2B, Blue Jays
Martinez’ data from 2024 made him look like he was going to be a perennial 30-home run threat:
However, Martinez was suspended last year for using performance enhancing drugs. Did that have an impact on his ability to hit the ball with plus-plus power? It appears it has:
His raw power is down a grade and a half, or roughly three mph. However, he’s maintained the bat path and timing that allow him to hit the ball at optimal launch angles for producing home runs. The average raw power he’s showing now makes him more of a 20-to-25 home run-type threat who will be feast or famine, as he struggles mightily against non-fastballs. He chases too much, whiffs too much and doesn’t do much damage against sliders, breaking balls and offspeed pitches.
Dylan Beavers, OF, Orioles
Beavers was one of my picks for the 2024 Not Top 100 team thanks to his long track record of performance. His 2024 season was rather underwhelming, but he’s rebounded this year and is looking like his old self statistically, sporting a wRC+ over 130.
More importantly—at least for this series—his Statcast metrics are impeccable and point to a player who looks like an above-average major leaguer. It’s average-to-plus raw power that looks like average game power, with plus to plus-plus bat to ball. What makes it all work are the incredibly low chase rates, which are plus or better across the board against all pitch types.
Profiles like this without any clear holes, when combined with strong top-line production, strongly suggest a very high-quality player. Beavers looks quite ready for the next challenge and will likely surprise a lot of people with just how good he is.
Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals
Mathews first popped on my radar in the nascent stages of this series, where he was suddenly throwing his fastball much harder and getting a ton of ride on the pitch. The fastball has dipped a little from his 2024 level, but still remains comfortably plus, with roughly average velocity and almost two inches of ride above expected. However, he’s struggled to get whiffs on the pitch:
Triple-A batters are seeing it well and making contact, even at the top of the zone. The raw stuff of the pitch suggests that it should generate more whiffs, and it’s somewhat concerning that he isn’t generating them just yet.
The good news for Mathews is that he’s generating plenty of swing-and-miss on his secondaries. Against lefties, he’s primarily fastball-slider with an occasional sinker. His slider is generating whiffs on 17.5% of pitches and sits over the 85 mph benchmark. The sinker gets about eight inches more run than the fastball, so while it grades out poorly, it should work quite well as a tertiary pitch to same-handed hitters.
Against righties, Mathews shows a complete arsenal, mixing in a slider, changeup and curveball while generating whiffs with all three pitches. This gives him more than enough to turn a lineup over at least once. I’m watching the performance of the fastball closely, but otherwise, this looks like a midrotation starter with a full repertoire.
Ernesto Martinez Jr, 1B, Brewers
Martinez is the type of player I’d classify as “tantalizing, but frustrating.” His 90th percentile exit velocity is elite, grading out as a true 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His maximum exit velocity is closer to a 65 or 70, while his average exit velocity sits closer to a 60 or 65. Where it all falls apart is his inability, to this point, to make his best contact in the air, as evidenced by his below-average exit velocities on balls hit at least 20 degrees or higher.
On top of the top-end raw power, Martinez doesn’t chase much and makes a ton of contact against fastballs, especially when he does chase. The raw tools are there, but he’ll need to make better contact in the air to fully maximize his potential. This is a very high-ceiling bat that might need a little bit more time to figure things out.
Otto Kemp, 3B, Phillies
Kemp made his major league debut yesterday, making this an opportune time for him to occupy the bookend feature for this week.
For some players, we need to be a little nuanced in our analysis. For Kemp, it’s pretty straightforward: If he makes contact, he’s going to mash. His ability to get to plus-plus exit velocities at those launch angles means he’s going to hit a lot of home runs when he connects. It’s exceedingly rare to pair that kind of juice at those angles, meaning it wouldn’t surprise me if Kemp turns into a 30-home run bat. There will always be swing-and-miss in his game, but he’ll more than make up for it with damage on contact.
Kemp might never grace the Top 100 Prospects list, nor even a team’s top 10, but this is a legitimately exciting prospect,with true 65 grade game power. There will be valleys, but the peaks will be well worth the patience.
BONUS: Free Roman Anthony
497 Feet.
