Kevin McGonigle Is A Near-Perfect Hitting Prospect
Image credit: Kevin McGonigle (Photo by Norm Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
We live in flush times.
Konnor Griffin is the No. 1 prospect in baseball, and he’s one of the best prospects we’ve seen in several years. But as good as Griffin is, Kevin McGonigle has a calling card of his own, as the Tigers shortstop/second baseman is as close to a perfect hitting prospect as we will likely see for years.
- SEE ALSO: Tigers Top 10 Prospects For 2026
There are prospects who hit the ball harder. There are some who make a bit more contact. If you look really hard, you may find someone with better plate coverage and pitch recognition.
But in almost every case, those hitters have strengths and weaknesses. They trade off contact for power. They trade some aggression for walks, or walks for aggression.
McGonigle manages to do it all without making any tradeoffs. Somehow, he manages to be elite at generating power, making swing decisions and emphasizing contact—all at the same time. And in that way, he is one of one.
So, just how difficult is it to pick out a flaw in McGonigle’s game as a hitter? Let’s see if we can find one.
Can He Hit For Power?
When McGonigle was an amateur, there was little doubt he was going to hit. But if you wanted to find potential flaws, the biggest concern was whether he would hit for power. McGonigle was short and compact. He wasn’t skinny, but he wasn’t as filled out as he is now.
Those concerns have since been put to rest. In 2025, McGonigle’s .587 slugging percentage was third-best in the full-season minors among qualifiers, and his .278 isolated power also ranked in the top five.
McGonigle has demonstrated all-fields power. He has short arms, a fast bat and the ability to use his legs in his swing to punish pitchers who try to come in on him for line-drive doubles and home runs. But he’s also shown the ability to stay back and drive the ball to left field.
Here’s his spray chart of extra-base hits:
Analytically, McGonigle ranked in the top five percent of MiLB hitters in average exit velocity. He was top 20% in 90th percentile exit velocity and max exit velocity.
Can He Hit Velocity?
Speaking of power, what happens if a pitcher rears back and fires with premium velocity? Can McGonigle handle the heat?
He doesn’t just handle it—he relishes it.
Synergy Sports’ data has velocity information for only 43% of the 1,509 pitches logged for McGonigle in 2025, so that is a key caveat here. But on those 92 pitches at 95-plus mph, he hit .444/.583/.778. He swung 47% of the time on those pitches, right in line with his overall swing rates. He had four singles, three doubles and a home run against pitchers 95 mph and above.
The home run, hit off a 100 mph Jarlin Susana fastball, was one of the most majestic home runs of the 2025 MiLB season.
Against fastballs, McGonigle hit .344/.438/.602. He swung and missed only 14% of the time and had 30 extra-base hits.
Clearly, trying to beat McGonigle with velocity may work sporadically, but it’s not a plan for consistent success.
How Well Does He Cover The Plate?
McGonigle may not be the physical specimen that some other top prospects are, but being 5-foot-10 has its advantages. For instance, he has a smaller strike zone than a 6-foot-5 slugger, and his shorter arms also help with controlling the barrel of the bat. McGonigle’s ability to make hard contact in all quadrants of the strike zone is impressive, as the Synergy Sports data illustrates.
Pitchers are best advised to work away against McGonigle. If a pitcher can consistently work away from him in the middle of the zone, there’s a slight bit of a hole there. But even in that location, McGonigle still hits .250 with a .425 slugging percentage.
He rarely swings and misses, but when he does, it’s usually on pitches on the outer third of the strike zone. McGonigle is also more likely to take strikes in that outer third.
But even out there, he mashes. Last year, McGonigle hit .316/.320/.480 on pitches in the outer third of the strike zone. Here’s some more location data to better illustrate the point:
- Middle of the zone (horizontal): .306/.303/.653
- Middle of the zone (vertical): .304/.295/.559
- Inner third: .397/.391/.778
- Bottom third: .288/.288/.470
- Top third: .396/.402/.791
Some advice for opposing pitchers: Avoid up and in at all costs. He’s slugging 1.182 there. But, again, there’s really nowhere in the zone that will consistently beat McGonigle. Here’s his OPS by location:
There’s just nowhere in the strike zone that’s proven to be a reliable hole pitchers can attack McGonigle.
Can You Make Him Chase?
So, if you can’t consistently beat McGonigle in the strike zone, the best way to attack him must be by having excellent command and working just off the plate. Ideally, if McGonigle can be induced to chase, he’ll have to hit pitchers’ pitches.
Well, the problem with that plan is McGonigle doesn’t chase pitches out of the strike zone. His chase rate ranks in the top 20% of all MiLB hitters. And that stat actually somewhat undersells how well he knows the zone.
Many of the hitters with the best chase rates are very passive hitters. If you rarely swing, it’s much easier to avoid chasing pitches out of the zone. To cite an extreme example, Guardians outfielder Jaison Chourio racked up tons of walks and an elite chase rate by swinging at only 36% of all pitches he saw in 2025.
McGonigle, however, swings at 45% of all pitches he sees. That combination of aggression while only swinging at strikes is extremely rare. His swing percentage minus his chase rate is in the top 3% of MiLB hitters.
So, trying to get McGonigle to chase pitches out of the strike zone is unlikely to have much success. And it explains why he has a career .410 MiLB on-base percentage. He wants to hit, but he’s happy to take walks, as well.
Maybe Bring In A Lefty?
There’s a reason that the Tigers (and many other teams) love to draft lefthanded hitters. Hitters who can bat lefthanded (lefties and switch-hitters) had the platoon advantage in 81% of their plate appearances in the majors in 2025. In comparison, righthanded hitters faced lefthanders in only 34% of their plate appearances.
But lefthanded hitters are often relatively helpless when they do get matched up against a lefthander. That’s not the case for McGonigle, though. He faced lefties in 24% of his plate appearances in 2025 and hit .321/.444/.628 against them. He slashed .300/.396/.569 against righthanders. McGonigle was a slightly worse hitter against lefties than righties in 2024, but a better hitter against lefties in his brief 2023 pro debut.
Over parts of three pro seasons, McGonigle has shown no issues facing pitchers with the platoon advantage. While it may work against may others, bringing in a lefty from the pen is not a clear path to getting McGonigle out.
Spin To Win?
Ok, here’s something that actually does work a little bit. McGonigle hit only .216/.361/.454 against breaking balls this year. His miss rate is still solid (25%), but it’s significantly higher than it is against fastballs.
Changeups and other offspeed offerings don’t do the same. McGonigle hit .308/.372/.615 against them, and his miss rate is 21%.
These are minor flaws on a nearly impeccable resume. It’s not that pitchers can’t get McGonigle out. It’s just that what worked in the first inning may not work again in the fourth. And pitchers have to be very precise, because any mistakes are punished.
No Major Weaknesses
To summarize, McGonigle does everything well. In 2025, he was the only MiLB hitter to rank in the top 20% of hitters in power (average exit velocity, 90th percentile exit velocity), swing decisions (chase rate and swing rate minus chase rate) and contact ability (miss rate and in-zone miss rate) and xwOBA.
Baseball America’s MiLB analytical data stretches back to 2019. According to our records, there was no MiLB hitter in 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 or 2019 who hit the top 20% in all those marks either.
McGonigle posted 50-plus extra-base hits while striking out fewer than 50 times in an MiLB season. He has the kind of power and contact combination that is very hard to find.
McGonigle really is one of one.
