Is There Any Way To Pitch Aaron Judge?

Aaron Judge’s Statcast Breakdown

Before diving deeper, let’s begin with how Judge looks based on a suite of metrics:

We can translate the top line exit velocity metrics into tool grades. Air EV—the average exit velocity on fly balls—can be thought of as game power, whereas 90th percentile exit velocity can be thought of as raw power.

• 90th EV of 111 mph translates to roughly 85 raw power on the 20-80 scale
• 95.5 MPH average exit velocity = 80 to 85 raw power
• 116.8 MPH maximum exit velocity = 75 grade raw power
• 97 MPH average fly ball exit velocity = 90 grade game power

There are, of course, no such things as 85- and 90-grade tools. We’re forced to hypothetically break the 20-80 scale because Judge legitimately has game-breaking power. The power numbers have always been elite, but Judge is having an even better season this year than last year. This begs the question: Is the 2025 version of Judge better than the 2024 version of Judge?

Judge is perhaps hitting the ball slightly less hard this season, but his zone contact has improved from a well below-average 78.9% to a slightly above-average 85.6%, with huge gains against fastballs and sinkers. For a player with 80-grade quality of contact, any gains in bat-to-ball are magnified.

Judge Vs. Four-Seam Fastballs

Teams are giving Judge fewer opportunities to hit fastballs, and he’s now seeing them 23% of the time compare to 27% of the time in 2024.

We’re going to use a lot of these types of charts, so let’s take a minute to explain what we’re looking at. On the left, we’re showing the four-seam fastballs Judge has swung at, and on the right, the pitches he’s taken. A small “x”indicates a swing and miss, while a large “X” indicates a swinging strikeout. On the right, we see where he’s taking pitches, and how those pitches are called against him.

Judge’s swings are clustered heavily towards the heart of the zone, with only two in-zone takes that resulted in called strike three. We see three swinging strikeouts in the zone, but also two home runs in the same area (the gold bubbles with numbers). When Judge swings at the very top of his zone, he won’t do much damage, and pitchers might get away with a foul ball. This is where the chart on the right comes in handy. As you can see, he’s going to let almost all of those above the zone pitches go. The most eye-opening part is just how few swings outside of the strike zone there are—only three above the zone and a handful just inside or outside.

Let’s dig in a little deeper on which four-seam fastballs Judge is taking:

We see a much more aggressive Judge with two strikes, with the heart of the zone empty. This indicates that he’s not going to get fooled with a fastball down the middle for called strike three. We also see that his two-strike takes are all around the edge of the zone, forcing pitchers to dot the corners to steal a backwards K against him. The majority of in-zone takes are on counts where he can afford to see a pitch or two.

Here we see the risk of throwing Judge a fastball and not hitting a corner. He’s more likely to put the ball in play than he is to swing and miss. Larger bubbles indicate fly balls with gold indicating hard contact. Large gold bubbles will have very good outcomes, and he has far more of those than whiffs. We also see he will get most of his balls in play in the air, with very few ground balls (small bubbles).

There isn’t really a good way to throw Judge a fastball. He’s not going to chase above the zone, and if you throw it in the zone, he’s going to crush it much more often than he’s going to miss it.

Judge Vs. Sinkers

On the left, we see two bad swings against sinkers this entire season. We also see a lot of hard contact, including three home runs. That’s three homers, three whiffs and a handful of chases. He’ll lay off the high sinker at the very top of the zone, but that’s not a typical target for a sinker.

The only way to steal a strike with a sinker in a two-strike count is to throw it to a corner or perhaps dot the top of the zone. Judge makes so much contact against sinkers, however, that he can easily cover the pitch almost anywhere a typical sinker is thrown:

My recommendation is to simply not throw Judge a sinker. Hes not going to miss it, and he’s more than capable of launching them in the air. If a pitcher has a choice between wasting a pitch or throwing Judge a sinker, I’d say just waste the pitch. I repeat: Throwing Judge a sinker is a fool’s errand.

Lest you think this is a small-sample blip, here’s 2024:

That’s 24 swings and misses the entire season compared to a whole lot of hard contact in the air, including double-digit home runs. Judge is currently seeing sinkers roughly 16% of the time, but there’s an argument to be made that it should be zero percent.

Judge Vs. Sliders

Against sliders, pitchers have a semblance of hope. Judge might chase below the zone, and if he does, he’s unlikely to do damage. He’s far more likely to just spit on the pitch and let it go, but getting the slider down gives the pitcher a chance, especially if they can dot the corner low and away.

Here we see the extreme importance of locating the slider. Down and away is good, though Judge won’t chase very many. If you hang it in the middle of the zone, he’ll crush it. The high slider might have a shot, but most pitchers don’t throw high sliders on purpose.

This is largely consistent with his 2024:

Down and away will get whiffs, but if it catches the heart of the plate and is even a little bit above the bottom of the zone, it’s danger.

Judge Vs. Breaking Balls (Curveballs & Sweepers)

As a pitcher facing Judge, you’re looking for a glimmer of hope. If you have a plus curve or sweeper, then you might have a fighting chance. He’s much more passive against these pitch types with bigger movement and doesn’t quite consistently barrel them.

It’s easy to see why teams have started to throw more curves and sweepers to Judge. Here, he looks mortal, with merely one home run and more whiffs than balls in play. However, there’s a fly in the proverbial ointment. If Judge suddenly starts seeing a much higher share of these pitches, he’s shown that he can more than handle it:

In 2024, if you threw him a breaking ball, you had to get it below the zone, or it was probably a home run. If pitchers shift their game plans to feed him tons of breaking balls, Judge will likely adjust.

Judge Vs. Offspeed Pitches (Changeups & Splitters)

Judge is very aggressive against offspeed stuff, rarely taking any pitches in the heart of the zone. A well-located changeup or splitter below the zone is the best chance a pitcher has to get Judge to chase. It’s incredibly difficult to get him to take an offspeed pitch for strike three, with the only backwards K occurring on a borderline pitch.

Here’s the problem:

If you can locate the pitch just below the zone, great. If you miss anywhere in the zone, he isn’t going to miss it. That’s one whiff in the zone and a whole bunch of hard contact.

He did an even better job in 2024, though with a bit more swing-and-miss:

We see whiffs below the zone, but as changeups get closer to the middle, we see home runs. Lots of home runs.

Is There Any Way To Pitch Aaron Judge?

The answer? Very carefully.

Let’s summarize what we’ve learned:

• Judge is far more likely to put a four-seam fastball in play than he is to whiff at one. He also won’t chase. Throw it at the tippy top of the zone, but don’t miss.
• Judge will crush any sinker he gets his bat on and will almost never swing and miss or chase. Pitchers should almost never throw him a sinker.
• Sliders must be low and away. Anything close to the heart will be crushed.
• Curveballs and sweepers are kind of working in 2025, but Judge absolutely demolished them in 2024, so the respite is likely short-lived.
• Changeups and splitters below the zone are good for pitchers. Changeups and splitters that hang even a little, Judge will demolish.

Judge’s excellence is underpinned by a phenomenal understanding of the strike zone. His approach against fastballs and sinkers is impeccable, and while he will chase the occasional non-fastball, he does so much less often than the average batter. And when he gets a hittable pitch, he doesn’t miss.

There are a handful of batters with equivalent raw power in the majors. What makes Judge special is how smart of a hitter he is, as evidenced by his elite swing decisions and elite pitch recognition. He is, to put it plainly, a pure hitter in a slugger’s body.