Indecision Time: 2021 MLB Draft Class Lacks True Consensus At The Top

The format varied, but one thing remained constant for the previous 56 drafts: They all took place in June.

Major League Baseball moved the draft to July this year to coincide with the all-star break. The draft will follow the Futures Game on Sunday, July 11, and conclude two days later. For the first time ever, the draft will be held after the conclusion of the College World Series.

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Baseball has largely put Covid-19 behind it this spring, but the 2021 draft class still has felt the ripple effects of the pandemic. While it won’t be remembered as the Covid draft like the five-round 2020 version, this year’s draft class has been equally impacted by the virus.

 

Covid largely blew up the summer evaluation period in 2020 for scouts and players alike, especially for collegians. No USA Baseball Collegiate National Team. No Cape Cod League. No 18U National Team. While many high school events took place in the South, players from the West Coast had limited options. Scouts had to miss events entirely due to personnel restrictions—and in some cases layoffs—and further step into the world of video scouting by writing reports remotely.

That dynamic has led to volatility. Players who previously lacked performance track record stood out, and others with history struggled. As a result, teams must rely more heavily on area scouts and their history with players and/or adjust models to incorporate a smaller sample of college stats.

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That volatility combines with exceptional depth—the five-round draft last year brought back many players who would have been drafted in a typical year—to create no clear talent consensus at the top.

Instead, a group of five players are generally seen as the top tier of talent. That group includes toolsy high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, renowned Vanderbilt righthanders Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker and Louisville catcher Henry Davis, one of the top performers this season.

The high school class looks more impressive than the college group. In particular, the prep shortstops are historic in quality and quantity. Four are potential top 10 overall picks: Lawlar and Mayer, plus Kahlil Watson
and Brady House.

The high school pitching group, led by righthanders Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter, is close to average, with several legitimate first-round talents and perhaps more depth of lefthanders than average.

Scouting departments were worried about the college hitting class this spring, and no players stepped forward to bring it up to average. Most evaluators see the college hitters as the weakest demographic of the group, with a notable absence of shortstops and corner profiles with power.

The college pitcher corps was thinned when potential top 10 picks Gunnar Hoglund and Jaden Hill suffered season-ending injuries. The group is a tick above-average on talent, albeit significantly below-average in terms of workload and track record.

Overall, the 2021 class seems weaker than teams would prefer at the top, but with elite depth that might leave organizations more excited with their draft crop after the top two rounds. n