Hunter Greene Fulfilling Potential As Reds Ace With More Than Just His 100 MPH Fastball

Greene graced the cover of Sports Illustrated when he was a 17-year-old senior at Notre Dame High in suburban Los Angeles because he threw the ball very hard. He was a candidate to be the first prep righthander in draft history to be selected No. 1 overall.

Ultimately, the Twins chose fellow SoCal prep Royce Lewis with the first pick in 2017. The Reds took Greene with the second pick.

To this day, Greene is one of just nine high school righthanders to be drafted No. 2 overall. Josh Beckett, J.R. Richard and Bill Gullickson are the most accomplished major league pitchers in the cohort.

Greene made the Reds’ Opening Day roster in 2022. As a rookie, he threw 338 pitches at 100 mph or faster. Just 32 of those pitches were thrown after the sixth inning. He also threw nine pitches of at least 102 mph, and none of them was thrown after the third.

In some starts, he would quickly wear down and then sit 93-95 mph.

“It’s one thing to throw as hard as he does,” Reds lefthander Nick Lodolo said. “It’s another to really pitch with that velocity.”

Three years ago, Greene didn’t really trust his fastball.

Throughout his amateur career and heading into the 2017 draft, he heard skeptics say that his fastball was a very straight pitch. When hitters knew that it was coming, they pounced.

Greene allowed 20 home runs in his first 14 big league starts, and the low point was a May 5 game in Milwaukee in which he allowed five homers as the Reds fell to 3-22 on the season.

“He had always been told that he had work to do with his fastball,” Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson said. “He got to the big leagues, and he had that in his mind. It needed to be a better pitch.

“For me, it was (him) needing to locate it better and understanding how to use it better. A part of that was just him believing in the pitch being good.”

Right around that point in Greene’s rookie season, he had an all-hands meeting with the training staff, medical staff and pitching coaches. They developed a new training regimen that would help with his endurance.

It paid off.

Greene finished his rookie season strong, posting a 1.75 ERA over his final eight starts.

Still, Greene wasn’t going deep into games. His fastball was getting more consistent, but he wasn’t leading the Reds to wins in the way that he wanted.

To get the most out of his fastball, he had to develop a third pitch that he was actually willing to throw.

“It’s about understanding how to pitch,” Greene said. “Throwing harder is not always the best. Knowing that in certain situations, that’s been big.”

Greene developed more vertical break on his fastball. He started locating the pitch where he wanted. He got more consistent with his slider and got lefthanded hitters off-balance with a new splitter.

He also developed the ability to throw his best pitches in the biggest moments of the game, getting more consistent with his velocity.

“That’s what he’s really able to do now, and that’s what separates him,” Lodolo said. “He’s pitching.

“Everyone gets enamored with the fact that he throws 100. If you watch him, there’s so much more to his game than throwing 100. He can truly pitch the ball. He takes a lot of pride in that, and it shows up.”

In 2024, Greene threw his fastest pitch of the year with two outs to end the sixth inning. He threw 14 pitches of at least 100 mph in the sixth inning or later. He didn’t hit 102 mph, but he didn’t need to in order to be an all-star.

During his breakthrough season, Greene posted a 2.75 ERA in 26 starts. His .183 opponent average was lowest among pitchers with at least 150 innings. He also completed six-plus innings in 17 of his 26 starts.

“Every year, I’ve been able to grow and add what’s necessary for my game,” Greene said. “I feel like I’ve been able to tap into the mental side to be the best version of myself.”

As Greene lived up to his potential, he took a bit of a victory lap.

“(It) might be validating for others who might have second-guessed (me),” he said. “But for myself, I’m honestly not surprised.”

The questions about Greene’s fastball were loud when he was a prospect. His fastball was hittable, and the industry is always concerned that flamethrowers like Greene are going to burn out.

He had Tommy John surgery in 2019, and he couldn’t pitch in minor league games in 2020 because of the pandemic. Thus, he missed two full years of development.

The Reds weren’t particularly worried about the risk with Greene when they drafted him in 2017 and signed him for $7.23 million, which remains a record for a high school pitcher.

“Tommy John is a pitching injury,” Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall said. “It’s not as simple as, ‘You throw hard, you get Tommy John.’ There are a lot of pitchers who have gotten hurt no matter how hard they throw.

“Hunter is a really good pitcher. We want good pitchers. We ask if you can get outs in the big leagues.”

Krall gave an example in reliever Brent Suter, who had never thrown a big league pitch faster than 90 mph before he had Tommy John in 2019.

There’s also Wade Miley, a notorious old-school crafty lefthander who had Tommy John surgery.

The Reds weren’t going to pass on Greene in the draft just because he threw hard. They followed the same approach in 2024, when Krall used the No. 2 pick to draft Wake Forest righthander Chase Burns, who has hit 102 mph.

“Velocity is still a pretty big deal in the game,” Johnson said. “Maybe it was just where we picked and who we had to choose from. It’s nice when you have big-bodied pitchers who throw hard and have secondary offerings that you can polish up.”

Still, Greene’s combination of velocity and durability is pretty rare in the big leagues right now.

From his 2022 debut through the 2024 season, Greene threw 470 pitches at 100 mph or faster, the most among starting pitchers. Thirty-seven other starters in the sample had hit 100 mph at least once. Sixteen of them had reached 100 mph at least 10 times.

But only Greene and the Pirates’ Paul Skenes threw 100 or more pitches at 100 mph. Others might have joined them if not for injury. Jacob deGrom, Shohei Ohtani, Spencer Strider and Sandy Alcantara all had major elbow surgery, while Bobby Miller struggled to get established in the big leagues.

In 2024, even after Greene scaled his velocity back a bit, Skenes was the only starter to throw more pitches at 100 mph or faster than Greene’s 35. Young flamethrowers Jose Soriano (32) and Jared Jones (30) were the only starters in the same neighborhood.

“Hunter’s athleticism has a lot to do with that,” Lodolo said. “You watch him play catch, and he’s very athletic.  Maybe that goes back to him being a shortstop (in high school). He has a really good feel for the baseball and where his body is at. That translates to the mound and helps him a lot.”

In 2024 the pitcher whose fastball was once considered too straight and too hittable got the last laugh. According to the MLB Statcast’s run-value metric, Greene’s dialed-back four-seam fastball was the most valuable in baseball. It topped all starting pitchers at 22.2 runs.

“In terms of the mechanics and how easy it is for him and how hard he can throw it,” Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson said, “(Greene) has one of the better fastballs in baseball for sure.”

The proof was in the pitches he threw in game-changing moments.

He reached back and froze Pirates DH Andrew McCutchen with a 100.1 mph fastball for the final out of the sixth inning of a scoreless game. He fired a 99.4 mph fastball for strike three in the seventh inning of a tie game versus the Dodgers to fan Enrique Hernandez. In a game against the Cardinals, Greene hit 99.3 mph in the seventh inning and got left fielder Brendan Donovan to strike out swinging.

“When he needs a pitch, he’s able to get (his velocity) there,” Johnson said. “To me, that’s a sign of what a good pitcher is.”