How Red Sox LHP Payton Tolle Went From Second-Round Pick To Top 100 Prospect
Image credit: Payton Tolle (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
On Sunday, Red Sox second-round pick Payton Tolle tossed five scoreless innings against Asheville, striking out a career-high 12 batters in the process.
After allowing six earned runs in 1.2 innings during a disastrous first professional start on April 8, the mountainous lefthander from TCU has been scored on only once since. Over a span of 13 innings since that start, Tolle has allowed seven hits and two walks while striking out 26 batters, which equates to a 53% strikeout rate. Tolle nabbed the No. 2 spot on the Hot Sheet this week, and in our most recent update to the Top 100 Prospects list, the 22-year-old made his debut at No. 93.
A two-way star at Wichita State, Tolle entered the transfer portal prior to his draft-eligible summer in 2024 and committed to TCU. With the Horned Frogs, he spent less time as a hitter and instead focused the majority of his time on pitching. The result was a career-best season, as Tolle pitched to a 3.21 ERA over 81.1 innings.
Considered a top two-round pick entering last July’s draft, Tolle was of particular interest to analytically-driven teams due to his outlier extension, which has been recorded at upwards of nearly eight feet. This unique characteristic allowed Tolle’s fastball to play above its low-90s velocity and generate whiffs in bunches as a collegiate.
Despite three years of college experience, many teams viewed Tolle as a player with untapped potential bubbling under the surface. He had never truly committed to pitching full-time, so with a proper development program, there were potential gains to be had. Among these teams were the Red Sox, who selected Tolle with the 50th overall pick and signed him for $2 million.
The team held Tolle back from pitching in any official games post draft. The Red Sox instead opted to put him on a training program to add strength. He also worked with the team’s athletic throwing program. Fast forward to this spring, and Tolle was now showing mid-90s velocity and touching high 90s at peak—a significant jump in velocity year over year.
These gains have stuck for Tolle over the first month of the season, as he sat 95.8 mph on average and touched 98 in his dominant May 4 start. He averaged seven-and-a-half feet of extension with 16-18 inches of induced vertical break and a vertical approach angle of -4.4 degrees.
On the day, Tolle had a 66.7% whiff rate against his fastball. With this velocity and pitch metrics, Tolle’s fastball now grades as an easy plus pitch. Over his last three turns, he’s shown advanced command of the pitch, as well.
While Tolle’s fastball quality has been no secret, the progression of the rest of his arsenal has been a welcomed development. He mixes a trio of secondaries in a gyro slider, sweeper and changeup. While Tolle’s changeup still lacks vertical and velocity separation from his four-seamer, he’s shown command for the pitch and the ability to sell it off of his fastball. His two breaking ball shapes range from the mid-to-high 80s on his slider and low-to-mid 80s on his sweeper.
Continued development of his secondaries and proving he can hold his mid-90s velocity are the challenges Tolle faces in his first professional season. If he can conquer both of those question marks, he’ll be poised to start games at Fenway Park sooner rather than later.
