How No. 1 Farm Systems Have Fared In The Last 15 Years
Image credit: Wander Franco (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
The Baltimore Orioles haven’t made the playoffs since they lost the wild card game in 2016, and they haven’t won a playoff game since 2014.
But if recent history of the Baseball America organizational talent rankings is any guide, that should change before too long. If you look back at the past 15 No. 1 farm systems, every one of those teams made at least one playoff appearance over the next few years after they were crowned No. 1. Five of them won the World Series in the near future after their No. 1 ranking, and there were a total of 13 World Series appearances over the following five seasons between the 15 selections.
We’ve highlighted the notable prospects (in hindsight) who ranked among the Top 30s for those No. 1 farm systems. Many gave their teams massive production, but there are other benefits of having a top farm system.
Some, like the 2019 Padres, traded significant chunks of their farm system to bring in MLB-ready talent.
The ability to slot in MLB-ready youngsters also can ensure the salary room and flexibility to add significant free agents or veterans in trade acquisitions.
Here’s a look at how the last 15 No. 1 farm systems fared in the following seasons.
2022: Seattle Mariners
Notable Prospects: Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, Matt Brash, Andres Munoz, Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo.
The Result: Ended the longest active playoff drought in baseball in 2022 behind the work of star rookies Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. Seem poised to compete in the AL West for a number of years to come.
2020 and 2021: Tampa Bay Rays
Notable Prospects: Wander Franco, Shane McClanahan, Joe Ryan, Randy Arozarena.
The Result: Lost in the World Series in 2020, won 100 games but were eliminated in the ALDS in 2021, lost in the AL Wild Card Series in 2022.
2019: San Diego Padres
Notable Prospects: Fernando Tatis, MacKenzie Gore, Francisco Mejia, Chris Paddack, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Andres Munoz, Ty France.
The Result: Traded many of those prospects in a flurry of massive deals. Advanced to the NLDS in 2020, the team’s first playoff appearance since 2006. Advanced to the NLCS in 2022.
2017 and 2018: Atlanta Braves
Notable Prospects: Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Mike Soroka, Ronald Acuna, Kyle Wright, William Contreras, Max Fried, Austin Riley, Ian Anderson, A.J. Minter,
The Result: Have won the NL East five consecutive seasons from 2018-2022. Lost in the NLCS in 2020. Won the World Series in 2021.
2016: Los Angeles Dodgers
Notable Prospects: Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Austin Barnes, Walker Buehler.
The Result: The Dodgers were already on a three-year streak of winning the NL West, but thanks to the arrival of prospects like Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler (all top prospects in that 2016 farm system), the Dodgers found another gear. The Dodgers lost in the World Series in 2017 and 2018 and won the World Series in 2020. They’ve also topped 100 wins on four different occasions since 2016.
2015: Chicago Cubs
Notable Prospects: Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease.
The Result: The Cubs’ peak petered out a little quicker than expected, but the team did accomplish the main goal by ending generations of frustration with a 2016 World Series win. The team also made the NLCS in 2015 and 2017 as part of a run of four consecutive playoff appearances.
2014: Pittsburgh Pirates
Notable Prospects: Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Josh Bell, Harold Ramirez, Gregory Polanco.
The Result: This is the one that failed to live up to the rest of this list. The Pirates did win 98 games in 2015 but lost in the NL Wild Card round and never returned to the playoffs. The 2014 Pirates Top 10 included Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell and Austin Meadows, but Pittsburgh struggled to put together consistent success.
2013: St Louis Cardinals
Notable Prospects: Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, Kolten Wong, Michael Wacha, Matt Adams.
The Result: Lost in the World Series in 2013, lost in the NLCS in 2014, won 100 games but lost in the NLDS in 2015.
2012: Texas Rangers
Notable Prospects: Jurickson Profar, Martin Perez, Jorge Alfaro, Rougned Odor, Odubel Herrera.
The Result: Arguably our weakest No. 1 farm system of the past two decades. Texas won 93 games that year and lost in the AL Wild Card game. The Rangers returned to the playoffs in 2015 and 2016, winning 95 games in 2016, but this is a case where our No. 1 at the time of the Prospect Handbook (the Washington Nationals) looks better. That Nationals farm system had Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon leading it, but a winter trade had gutted much of the system’s depth before our preseason rankings came out.
2011: Kansas City Royals
Notable Prospects: Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, Danny Duffy, Mike Moustakas, Yordano Ventura, Jarrod Dyson, Kelvin Herrera.
The Result: Lost in the World Series in 2014, then won the World Series in 2015. The team’s rise to the peak was fast and its decline was just as quick, but the midpoint of the 2010s was truly magical in Kansas City.
2007, 2008 and 2010: Tampa Bay Rays
Notable Prospects: Evan Longoria, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Wade Davis, Matt Moore, Desmond Jennings.
The Result: In reality, the Rays’ farm systems of the late 2000s could have been even better if Delmon Young, Desmond Jennings and No. 1 pick Tim Beckham had met expectations, but a core of Longoria and Price played a large role in the team’s first run of success. The Rays made it to the World Series in 2008, and made the playoffs four more times between 2009-2013.
2009: Texas Rangers
Notable Prospects: Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Martin Perez, Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter.
The Result: The Rangers’ youth movement helped the team go to back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 as the team won 90-plus games four years in a row.
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