How In-Season Updates To Our Top 100 Prospects List Help Make Our Rankings More Accurate
Image credit: Gunnar Henderson (Photo by Shayna Goldberg/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
For most of the history of Baseball America, the idea of updating the Top 100 Prospects list monthly in-season was unthinkable. The game and the information surrounding it didn’t move that quickly. In a time before Trackman data and video, it took months before scouts got enough coverage to fully digest how prospects had changed.
In that era of much less information, our decision to add a midseason top 50 update was a big deal and a heavy lift.
Nowadays, information is much more prevalent, and everything moves much faster. So coming out of the pandemic, we wanted to take a bigger swing. In 2022, we started to do monthly updates in-season.
We do a modest update at the end of spring training, and then bigger ones in May, June, July and August.
In between those full updates, we replace graduated players, but we don’t profess that those updates ensure an accurate Top 100. In those cases, we’re only adding names to the back of the list to replace graduated players. A pop-up prospect’s climb through the rankings still has to wait until the next actual full update.
Our monthly updates, on the other hand, involve getting feedback from industry sources and taking a close look at every spot in the 100. While we begin with the assumption that the previous ranking is the starting point, as the weather warms up, we quickly get to a point where the offseason ranking’s value fades in comparison to new information.
The hope is that by putting out rankings more often, we are able to better and more quickly use the information we’re gathering. And when we put out those rankings, it actually helps bring back even more industry feedback, which in turn helps improve our next update. So by updating more often, we are able to then update even more often.
But there is a risk in speeding up the process. We don’t want to increase the potential for inaccuracy. We don’t want to just be shifting players up and down to artificially create movement and add intrigue.
So we track the movement. We show our work. Ultimately, you can make your own judgments about how useful more frequent updates are.
Having looked back at the last three years’ worth of Top 100 movement, I’m convinced that our decision to increase our number of updates has allowed us to better reflect what is happening while also allowing our readers to spot prospect breakouts (and declines) more quickly. Being a subscriber-supported site, we need to provide the best rankings possible.
Doing five (or more) in-season Top 100 updates has had many more hits than misses. And it hopefully means that, by this August, you will have a pretty close approximation of what the offseason Top 100s will look like, giving you a head start on everyone else.
So here’s a summary of recent hits and misses. After that, we’ll provide more detail for those who want them. And we’ll also have links for all the monthly updates from the last three years for those who want to really roll up their sleeves.
A Quick Summary
The core idea of making numerous in-season updates is to provide our readers with accurate and up-to-date information more quickly than anywhere else. For that to be the case, the prospects who move up or down significantly need to generally be the right moves. Obviously there will be mistakes, but they need to be rare.
The players who make the biggest jumps onto or up the Top 100 Prospect rankings is a list of some of the more prominent prospects in the games. With the 2022 list, we also see some of the most productive young players now in the big leagues.
Prospects who made 20+ spot jumps up in-season in 2022-2024 include Jackson Chourio, Gunnar Henderson, Ezequiel Tovar, James Wood, Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Brown, Masyn Winn, Mason Miller, Zach Neto, Roman Anthony, Andrew Abbott, Jared Jones, Kristian Campbell, Bubba Chandler and many others.
If a prospect flies up our in-season rankings, he usually doesn’t slide back off.
At the same time, a player sliding down the rankings 20+ spots is also a solid sign that a player’s prospect status is waning, although injuries and suspensions that lead to big drops can add some noise to that data. If a pitcher in the back half of the Top 100 has Tommy John surgery, he will almost assuredly drop 20+ spots, even if he eventually makes a full recovery.
So, with that being said, here’s a look at some of the highlights and lowlights from each year of frequent updates. We’ll have more insights into 2022 because those prospects have largely graduated to the majors.
2022
We’re Really Proud Of
There are a number of speedy additions to the 2022 Top 100 that look very good a few years later.
Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar’s breakout season saw him jump onto the early June Top 100 as the No. 26 prospect. He reached the majors a year later and won his first Gold Glove in 2024 while earning MVP votes.
Outfielder Jackson Chourio leapt onto the Top 100 at No. 42 in early June. A month later, he rose another 22 spots, and he ranked No. 2 by August. He was third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2024 and remains the youngest player in the National League as of early April. He’s one of the best young big leaguers in the game.
Other players already on the Top 100 rocketed into the top tier of prospects. Shortstop Gunnar Henderson began the year ranked No. 60. He moved into the top 50 in June, the top 10 in July and was the No. 1 prospect in the game by the start of August.
Shortstop Elly De La Cruz made a 41-spot jump in July to leap into the top 25. Righthander Hunter Brown entered the Top 100 in June and climbed into the top 50 in August. Outfielder James Wood was a July Top 100 addition and a top 50 prospect in August.
Can We Have A Do Over?
While our aggressive moves for Tovar and Chourio in early June were prescient, we also moved catcher Drew Romo onto the Top 100 at No. 35. He stayed around that range the rest of 2022, but he slid to the bottom of the Top 100 in 2023 and dropped off later that season.
Outfielder Sal Frelick was one of the few players to yo-yo on and off. He ranked 93rd in June, dropped off when draftees were added in July, but then moved back on at No. 75 in August.
2023
We’re Really Proud Of
Third baseman Junior Caminero entered the Top 100 at No. 52 in June. He was a top 10 prospect by July. Roman Anthony entered the rankings at No. 35 in July and ranked 20th in August.
Righthander Mason Miller entered the Top 100 in June one spot ahead of Caminero at No. 51.
Catcher Dalton Rushing joined the Top 100 at No. 80 in June and was No. 37 in July. Catcher Samuel Basallo was another emerging prospect who was quickly identified and ranked accordingly.
Catcher Diego Cartaya’s slide from top prospect status was reflected in his fall from No. 18 prospect before the season to being dropped off the Top 100 in August. He was designated for assignment by the Dodgers after the 2024 season.
Can We Have A Do Over?
We moved outfielder Masataka Yoshida to No. 40 before he graduated. That seems overheated.
Kyle Manzardo and Noelvi Marte moved up and down the rankings in back to back months. So did Ronny Mauricio, who entered in May, jumped to 65th in July and was dropped in August. There were injuries and other complicating factors, but this is the type of what seems like indecisiveness that we want to try to avoid.
2024
We’re Really Proud Of
Kristian Campbell didn’t rank in the Red Sox Top 30 coming into the season. He ranked 26th in the Top 100 in the final in-season ranking.
Shortstop Kevin McGonigle entered the Top 100 in June and ranked 26th by July. He’s continued to climb in the rankings since.
Lefthander Quinn Mathews and righthander Zebby Matthews were breakout pitching prospects who weren’t ranked in May and were top 60 prospects in July.
Can We Have A Do Over?
We moved Mets righthander Christian Scott onto and then up the list dramatically in May and June and then dropped him 42 spots after he had Tommy John surgery. The same thing happened with Red Sox righthander Luis Perales before and after an elbow injury. Shane Baz’s ranking took a big hit when he struggled early in his return from Tommy John surgery, but he seems to have put that behind him.
Moves Up And Down In More Detail
For those who want more detail, here’s a look at every prospect who moved up or down 20+ spots in a 2022, 2023 or 2024 Top 100 in-season rankings update. If a player is listed multiple times, it means they moved up (or down) 20+ spots multiple times.
2022
20+ Jumps: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Evan Carter, MacKenzie Gore, Roansy Contreras, Eury Perez, Royce Lewis, Michael Harris, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Harrison, Ezequiel Tovar, Jackson Chourio, Adael Amador, Ezequiel Duran, Gavin Stone, Vinnie Pasquantino, Gavin Williams, Drew Romo, Daniel Espino, Max Meyer, Kyle Harrison, James Wood, Colson Montgomery, Yosver Zulueta, Ricky Tiedemann, Edwin Arroyo, Gavin Stone, Curtis Mead, Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Brown, Masyn Winn, Bo Naylor, George Valera, Gunnar Henderson, Gavin Williams, Taj Bradley, Alec Burleson, Brayan Bello, Kyle Harrison, Gordon Graceffo, Ryan Pepiot, Jackson Chourio, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Tink Hence, James Wood
20+ Drops: Austin Martin, Nate Pearson, Jasson Dominguez, Tyler Soderstrom, Cade Cavalli, Jose Barrero, Gabriel Arias, Kahlil Watson, Korey Lee, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Matthew Liberatore, Tyler Freeman, Cristian Hernandez, Nick Yorke.
You can download the month-by-month Top 100 changes for 2022 here.
2023
20+ Jumps: Ethan Salas, Masataka Yoshida, Junior Caminero, Mason Miller, Dalton Rushing, Tanner Bibee, Zach Neto, Matthew Liberatore, Cole Young, Kyle Manzardo, Roman Anthony, Noah Schultz, Andrew Abbott, Yanquiel Fernandez, Chase Hampton, Jacob Misiorowski, Jeferson Quero, Colt Keith, Coby Mayo, AJ Smith-Shawver, Robby Snelling, Samuel Basallo, Adael Amador, Noelvi Marte, Carson Williams, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Ronny Mauricio, Brady House, Luisangel Acuna, Jeferson Quero, Rhett Lowder, Endy Rodriguez.
20+ Drops: Cade Cavalli, Daniel Espino, Noelvi Marte, Elijah Green, Daniel Espino, Tyler Soderstrom, Gavin Stone, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Andrew Painter, Ricky Tiedemann, Marco Luciano, Kyle Manzardo, Michael Busch, Endy Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Curtis Mead, Owen White, Termarr Johnson, Diego Cartaya, Druw Jones, Kevin Alcantara, D.L. Hall, George Valera, Drew Romo, Cam Collier, Edwin Arroyo, Zac Veen, Kevin Parada, Robert Hassell, Ceddanne Rafaela, Elijah Green, Ronny Mauricio, Diego Cartaya
You can download the month-by-month Top 100 changes for 2023 here.
2024
20+ Jumps: Jared Jones, Josue De Paula, Brayan Rocchio, Aidan Miller, Jefferson Rojas, Luis Perales, Christian Scott, Jordan Beck, Max Meyer, Orelvis Martinez, Jacob Wilson, Zebby Matthews, Quinn Mathews, Kevin McGonigle, Thomas White, Ralphy Velazquez, Jacob Wilson, Lazaro Montes, Xavier Isaac, Bubba Chandler, Drake Baldwin, Kristian Campbell, Leodalis De Vries, Bubba Chandler, Brandon Sproat, Alex Freeland, Bryce Eldridge, Jaison Chourio, Chase Dollander, Quinn Mathews.
20+ drops: Connor Phillips, AJ Smith-Shawver, Roderick Arias, Ricky Tiedemann, Dylan Lesko, Everson Pereira, Curtis Mead, Orelvis Martinez, Spencer Jones, Harry Ford, Luis Perales, Thomas Saggese, Shane Baz, Connor Phillips, Roderick Arias, Dylan Lesko, Christian Scott, Adael Amador, Jacob Melton, Drew Gilbert, Marco Luciano, Tyler Black.
You can download the month-by-month Top 100 changes for 2024 here.
