How Did Our No. 1 MLB Prospect Predictions For 2025 Fare?
Image credit: Jasson Dominguez (Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
In January 2024, we attempted to predict the 2025 No. 1 prospect for all 30 MLB teams. Wanting to show our work, here’s a look at how well we did with those predictions.
The biggest takeaway is that we did not allow enough for the possibility of top prospects remaining eligible because of injuries. There were only six No. 1 prospects who we didn’t include as a possibility in our predictions.
Cam Smith came over in a trade to the Astros, which wasn’t possible to predict, and the same could be said for the Dodgers signing Roki Sasaki, who was still pitching in Japan at the time.
Predicting 2026 No. 1 Prospects For Every System
Baseball America presents odds for every candidate to be the No. 1 prospect in their system this time next year.
Jesus Made had just signed with the Brewers as a 16-year-old, so we weren’t likely to predict that one. The Braves’ Drake Baldwin was a breakout we didn’t include as a prediction, either.
The other two (Jordan Lawlar and Jasson Dominguez) were prospects we expected to graduate, but who remained eligible because of injuries.
Those explanations out of the way, let’s take a look at how our past selves did with predicting the No. 1 prospects with each team for 2025.
Diamondbacks
- 2025 No. 1: Jordan Lawlar, SS/3B
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: The Field
Summary: We didn’t expect Lawlar to still be available, but another season lost to injury means he’s still eligible. We hope he doesn’t get a chance to repeat this again next year.
Athletics
- 2025 No. 1: Nick Kurtz, 1B
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: 2024 First-Round Pick
Summary: We didn’t know yet that Nick Kurtz would be the pick, but we felt confident whoever the A’s took in the first round would climb to the top. Our next most-likely pick, Jacob Wilson, ranks second.
Braves
- 2025 No. 1: Drake Baldwin, C
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: 2024 First-Round Pick
Summary: We did predict the field was more likely than anyone other than the team’s 2024 first-round pick (Cam Caminiti) to nab this spot. Technically, Baldwin is part of “the field” but we will only give partial credit for that.
Orioles
- 2025 No. 1: Samuel Basallo, C
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Samuel Basallo
Summary: This seemed like a slam dunk to us at the time, as we gave a 70% prediction that Basallo would be the No. 1 prospect in 2025, which he is.
Red Sox
- 2025 No. 1: Roman Anthony, OF
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Roman Anthony
Summary: Anthony shared the top odds (40%) with Marcelo Mayer. Mayer ranks third, as we didn’t foresee Kristian Campbell leapfrogging him to No. 2.
Cubs
- 2025 No. 1: Matt Shaw, 3B
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Matt Shaw
Summary: We split the odds evenly between Cade Horton, Shaw and the field. We’ll count that as a win, as Shaw, the team’s new third baseman, has climbed to No. 1.
White Sox
- 2025 No. 1: Noah Schultz, LHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Colson Montgomery
Summary: While our top prediction was Colson Montgomery, he shared the odds with the first-round pick (Hagen Smith). We gave the actual No. 1 (Noah Schultz) a 20% chance of being No. 1. So that counts.
Reds
- 2025 No. 1: Rhett Lowder, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: 2024 First-Round Pick
Summary: Lowder was our second choice with 20%. The first-round pick proved to be Chase Burns, who is just behind Lowder on the list, with Chase Petty (who we gave the third-best odds) ranking third.
Guardians
- 2025 No. 1: Travis Bazzana, 2B
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: 2024 First-Round Pick
Summary: We said that the No. 1 pick had a 60% chance of being the No. 1 prospect, and that’s exactly what happened, with the Guardians picking Bazzana at the top of the draft.
Rockies
- 2025 No. 1: Chase Dollander, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Adael Amador
Summary: Dollander had a 15% chance of being the No. 1 prospect, behind Amador’s 40%. We had the Rockies as a very wide-open team, with eight different options getting odds.
Tigers
- 2025 No. 1: Jackson Jobe, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Max Clark
Summary: Clark clocked in with a 40% chance of being No. 1, with Jobe right behind him at 30%. Both are elite prospects, so we’re pretty happy with this prediction.
Astros
- 2025 No. 1: Cam Smith, OF/3B
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Jacob Melton
Summary: Technically, the field had a 10% shot, but it’s really hard to predict that a 2024 first-round pick for another team is going to be the No. 1 prospect. Smith, acquired from the Cubs, fits that bill.
Royals
- 2025 No. 1: Jac Caglianone, 1B/OF
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: 2024 First-Round Pick
Summary: We gave the Royals’ first-rounder a 40% chance to lead the list, and he did. Caglianone’s power could move quickly, so we may not be predicting him to return to this spot next year.
Angels
- 2025 No. 1: Caden Dana, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: 2024 First-Round Pick
Summary: We gave the first-round pick the highest odds, and Christian Moore ended up ranking second. But Dana did rate as the third most-likely choice with a 15% chance.
Dodgers
- 2025 No. 1: Roki Sasaki, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Dalton Rushing
Summary: It’s hard to predict Roki Sasaki a year before he was posted, and Rushing did rank No. 2.
Marlins
- 2025 No. 1: Thomas White, LHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Noble Meyer
Summary: We predicted that the Marlins’ No. 1 prospect would be one of their two young and talented pitching prospects. We just thought Meyer had a better chance than White.
Brewers
- 2025 No. 1: Jesus Made, SS
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: The Field
Summary: We’re not giving ourselves credit for the field even when we said that it was most likely going to be somewhere further away. Made would have been a bold choice considering he hadn’t played a pro game at the time.
Twins
- 2025 No. 1: Walker Jenkins, OF
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Walker Jenkins
Summary: Jenkins was viewed as a 60% chance to repeat as No. 1, which he has done. Our second most-likely pick, Emmanuel Rodriguez, ranks No. 2 in the system.
Mets
- 2025 No. 1: Jett Williams, SS/OF
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Jett Williams
Summary: We gave an 80% chance that Williams would remain at No. 1 for another year, which is exactly what happened.
Yankees
- 2025 No. 1: Jasson Dominguez, OF
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Spencer Jones
Summary: We figured that, even with Dominguez’s elbow injury, he’d graduate before this season arrived. Instead, he got a late-season callup and should finally graduate in 2025.
Phillies
- 2025 No. 1: Andrew Painter, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Andrew Painter
Summary: This one was too easy. We knew that Painter would miss almost all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned for the Arizona Fall League and should graduate in 2025.
Pirates
- 2025 No. 1: Bubba Chandler, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Bubba Chandler
Summary: With Paul Skenes graduating to immediate ace status, we put a 30% chance that another front-line starting pitching prospect would follow him.
Padres
- 2025 No. 1: Leodalis De Vries, SS
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Ethan Salas
Summary: We thought Salas would remain at No. 1, and when we made this prediction in January 2024, we thought there was a 25% chance Jackson Merrill would still be eligible. De Vries was named, but he was given only a 5% chance of being the new No. 1.
Mariners
- 2025 No. 1: Colt Emerson, SS
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: The Field
Summary: The Mariners were loaded with high-upside prospects, so we took a chance on the field as the top option, with Cole Young and Colt Emerson following right behind. Emerson proved to be the right call.
Giants
- 2025 No. 1: Bryce Eldridge, 1B
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Bryce Eldridge
Summary: We expected Kyle Harrison to graduate, which cleared the decks for Eldridge to slug his way to No. 1. And that’s exactly what happened.
Cardinals
- 2025 No. 1: JJ Wetherholt, SS
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: 2024 First-Round Pick
Summary: This was viewed as a wide-open race with Tink Hence, Victor Scott II, Tekoah Roby and the first-round pick all having 20% odds. Getting Wetherholt at pick No. 7 made it an easy choice.
Rays
- 2025 No. 1: Carson Williams, SS
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Carson Williams
Summary: Williams was expected to replace Junior Caminero at the top of the Rays’ list as soon as he graduated. A strong start and his excellent defense meant Williams has risen into the top tier of MLB prospects.
Rangers
- 2025 No. 1: Sebastian Walcott, SS
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Sebastian Walcott
Summary: This was another case of us expecting a clear new No. 1. Walcott was viewed as having a 50% chance of being Evan Carter’s replacement. Now, the question is whether he’ll be around to be the No. 1 next year, as well.
Blue Jays
- 2025 No. 1: Ricky Tiedemann, RHP
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Ricky Tiedemann
Summary: We didn’t know that Tiedemann would need Tommy John surgery when we made this prediction 15 months ago, but we did expect he wouldn’t graduate because of health and workload restrictions. He was the 30% option.
Nationals
- 2025 No. 1: Dylan Crews, OF
- 2024 Top Prediction for 2025: Dylan Crews
Summary: We expected that Crews wouldn’t graduate, but we also gave an equal 40% chance for James Wood not graduating. Wood had the stronger debut, but Crews is a solid rookie of the year candidate for 2025.
