How Chase Dollander’s Unique Fastball Has Rockies’ Top Prospect Primed For Success At Coors Field


Image credit: Chase Dollander (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
After what had been a down season at Tennessee, righthander Chase Dollander entered the 2023 MLB Draft as one of the top college pitchers in a loaded class. As draft day neared, rumors floated to the public raised the possibility of Dollander ending up in the worst of locations for a pitcher. the Rockies and Coors Field.
When the Rockies picked rolled around at ninth overall, the perceived worst-case scenario for Dollander became reality, as he was, indeed, selected by the Rockies.
Dollander was coming off a season in which his plus-plus four-seam fastball shape had backed up while struggling to execute consistently against SEC competition. Many in the baseball world wondered if the Rockies were equipped to fix Dollander. And even if they did, how he would handle the treacherous challenge of pitching home games in the high altitude at Coors Field?
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Where does Chase Dollander’s four-seam fastball rank against the best pitchers in minor leagues?
Dollander entered 2024 with less enthusiasm in the industry than his talent or track record would suggest. Once games began in the spring, however, it was obvious the best version of Dollander was back. He dominated High-A competition over 14 starts, pitching to a 2.83 ERA while striking out 37% of batters faced. Dollander was selected to participate in the 2024 Futures Game in Arlington, and he joined Double-A Hartford following the all-star break.
Over nine starts with Hartford, Dollander continued to perform, pitching to a 2.25 ERA with a 29.1% strikeout rate. Along the way, he started to figure out how to navigate lineups more efficiently, providing the Yard Goats length in his starts. Over his final six starts, Dollander pitched into the sixth inning five times, throwing 95 or more pitches in four of those starts. In an era when top pitching prospects are handled with kid gloves, it was a refreshing look for one of the top pitchers in the minors.
This improved pitchability and execution came in concert with a return to form for Dollander’s pitch mix. Dollander’s fastball saw the efficiency jump back to pre-2023 levels, bringing with it an extremely flat vertical approach angle. When Dollander’s fastball is right, it’s reminiscent of prime Jacob deGrom’s heater, sitting in a similar velocity range with more vertical break than you’d expect from his release height.
For all the horror stories about the Rockies’ home park, low release height pitchers have actually seen success at Coors recently.
The Giants’ Kyle Harrison, for example, owns the lowest ERA of any opposing pitcher who has made multiple starts at Coors. It’s only two appearances, but Harrison has yet to allow a run as a starter at Coors. Harrison generates a flat vertical approach angle on par with Dollander’s fastball, measuring somewhere in the -4.0 to 4.1 degree range. This makes the pitch harder for batters to get on plane.
Dollander’s four-seam fastball is, on average, about 3 mph harder than Harrison’s, and he generates more induced vertical break. We know that elevation at Coors has in impact on pitch movement, so Dollander is likely to lose an inch or so of vertical break off his fastball.
But thanks to a unique combination of velocity and spin, it may not matter.
The high spin efficiency on Dollander’s fastball creates a flat vertical approach angle for a pitch coming in at 96-98 mph. Hitters have less time to adjust due to the velocity, and the flat plane tricks them into swinging under the pitch because they predict the pitch will drop more than it does.
I believe this might give Dollander a leg up on previous Rockies pitchers, even the best ones.
There’s only one Rockies pitcher in history with a career ERA under 4.00 with the organization: Ubaldo Jimenez. In the mid-to-late 2000s, the all-star righthander was one of the hardest throwers in the game, and for a few season, he was a bona fide ace for the club. So, there’s historical precedent for success in Colorado.
Dollander has that level of stuff and possibly better.
Dollander’s slider is a hard, cutter-like pitch without the dynamic movement found with the majority of breaking balls. This could mean the pitch’s movement isn’t impacted as heavily by Coors. Dollander mixes in a big breaking ball, but it’s often thrown off the plate to lefties and early in the count to righthanders. He may have to rely on the pitch less frequently in home starts, and work primarily off of his fastball and cutter. The development of a changeup could be welcomed addition to Dollander’s arsenal, as the current version was only thrown about 100 times this year. It does have some good traits with solid vertical separation, but generates only 5-6 miles of velocity separation off his heater.
Will these factors lead to success for Dollander in the most treacherous pitching environment this side of the Pacific Coast League? As the most talented pitching prospect in Rockies history, he is certainly equipped to meet the challenge. But only time will tell.