Houston Astros Breakout MLB Prospects For 2025
Entering 2025, we’re projecting a number of Astros prospects to have the potential for a breakout season.
To qualify, a player must rank outside the organization’s Top 10 prospects entering the year. All scouting reports are from Baseball America’s 2025 Prospect handbook, which you can purchase here.
You can find Top 10 prospect rankings for all teams here and all breakout candidates here.
Astros Top Prospects For 2025
We rank the top players in Houston’s system entering the season, complete with new scouting reports, tools, grades & more.
Breakout Prospects
Ryan Gusto, RHP
Preseason Rank: 12
BA Grade/Risk: 40/Medium
Track Record: Gusto is an inspiring story. He didn’t make his high school baseball team in North Carolina, but secured a walk-on spot at Broward JC in Florida after graduation. After one season at Broward, he followed head coach Ben Bizier to Florida Southwestern State JC. Gusto won Suncoast Conference pitcher of the year in 2019. The Astros drafted him in the 11th round in 2019 and signed him for $421,699. Gusto missed the 2021 season after having Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2022 and pitched his way to Triple-A to begin 2024. Gusto made 26 starts for Triple-A Sugar Land and amassed a 8-6 record with a 3.70 ERA and 141 strikeouts over 148.1 innings.
Scouting Report: Gusto has a starter’s build, a deep repertoire of pitches and advanced pitchability. Gusto’s arsenal consists of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, cutter and a changeup. His four-seam fastball sits 92-94 mph and touches 98 mph at peak with average ride. His low-80s sweeper slider is his most used secondary, averaging around 10-12 inches of horizontal break. The changeup is Gusto’s best pitch, a mid-80s offering with above-average armside run, sold with arm speed and good vertical separation off of the fastball. Gusto uses his curveball as his primary breaking ball vs. lefties and ups his cutter usage against righties. It’s truly a kitchen sink approach as Gusto keeps hitters guessing with his sequencing and shows above-average command.
The Future: Gusto is a back-end starter who’s ready for the major leagues in 2025.
Scouting Grades: FB: 45. CB: 45. SL: 50. CH: 55. CTL: 55.
Joseph Sullivan, OF
Preseason Rank: 14
BA Grade/Risk: 45/High
Track Record: Sullivan broke out as a draft-eligible sophomore at South Alabama in 2023, hitting .304/.485/.591. He returned to campus for his junior season but dealt with injuries and hit just .266/.441/.531 over 38 games. The Astros selected Sullivan in the seventh round of the 2024 draft and signed him for $239,900. Sullivan comes from an athletic family—his grandfather Pat Sullivan won the 1971 Heisman Trophy at Auburn and his father played college football at Auburn and TCU.
Scouting Report: Sullivan is a muscular 5-foot-11 outfielder with outlier athleticism and twitch. Sullivan hits from a crouched, slightly open stance with a moderate leg kick. He shows advanced bat-to-ball skills with a patient approach. Sullivan rarely expands the zone but will be aggressive in the zone. Sullivan’s 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.1 mph hints at potential for average or better power if he can hit the ball in the air more consistently. At the moment his batted ball profile is heavily groundball slanted. Sullivan is a plus runner whose speed translates to both sides of the ball. He’ll push for an extra base on balls to the gap and is an efficient basestealer. Sullivan has good range in the outfield and the ability to play all three outfield positions. He’s an above-average outfielder with an above-average arm that keeps runners honest.
The Future: Sullivan is an athletic outfielder with an above-average hit tool and some power projection. There’s a wide range of outcomes, but he has everyday regular upside.
Scouting Grades: HIT: 55. POW: 40. RUN: 60. FLD: 55. ARM: 55.
Cole Hertzler, RHP
Preseason Rank: 28
BA Grade/Risk: 40/High
Track Record: Hertzler was a two-way player when he landed on campus at Liberty prior to the 2022 season. He spent two years as primarily a position player, playing two-way as a sophomore. Heading into his junior season, Hertzler focused on pitching exclusively and had a strong year for the Flames. He made 14 starts and pitched to a 4.16 ERA. The Astros drafted Hertzler in the fifth round and signed him for a bonus of $393.700. He made two appearances with Low-A Fayetteville following the draft.
Scouting Report: Hertzler is a super athletic pitcher with perhaps more remaining projection and added velocity. Hertzler mixes four pitches in a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball and changeup with the fastball and slider seeing a majority of the usage. Hertzler’s fastball sits 92-93 mph touching 95 mph at peak with elite ride from an over-the-top arm slot. Hertzler’s slider is his primary secondary pitch, sitting 82-83 mph with slurvy shape and the ability to tunnel off of his fastball. Hertzler’s changeup sees nearly equal usage to the slider and is Hertzler’s best pitch. It generated whiffs at a rate of 34% in his final collegiate season. Hertzler can land all of his pitches for strikes.
The Future: Hertzler has back-end starter upside but could end up in relief eventually.
Scouting Grades: FB: 55. CB: 40. SL: 45. CH: 50. CTL: 50.
