5 First-Round Picks Left Unprotected Ahead Of 2024 Rule 5 Draft

Image credit: Austin Hendrick (Photo by Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)

The 2020 draft was understandably one of the weirdest and least normal in MLB draft history. The pandemic forced college and high school seasons to shut down early. For some high school teams, their season never even started.

We’re still seeing the effects more than four years later. Teams left four of the 11 high school first-round picks from the 2020 draft unprotected ahead of the 2024 Rule 5 Draft. That 64% success rate is well below the typical 73% rate of prep first-rounders being protected from their first eligible Rule 5 draft.

Reds outfielder Austin Hendrick (No. 12 overall pick), Cubs shortstop Ed Howard (No. 16), Guardians shortstop Carson Tucker (No. 23) and Rays righthander Nick Bitsko (No. 24) are unprotected. Tucker was released by the Guardians last summer.

The 2021 draft, which was much more normal, sees a much higher success rate of teams adding first-round picks to the 40-man roster. Of the 13 college first-rounders, only Giants RHP Will Bednar was left unprotected. And there were three high school players eligible because they signed as 19-year-olds. All three (Jackson Jobe, Jordan Lawlar and Colson Montgomery) are on 40-man rosters. So 15 of the 16 players (93.8%) eligible from the 2021 first round were protected.

Overall the 81.4% success rate of the first-time eligible first-rounders is right in line with normal success rates. For the past nine years, 81.1% of first-rounders (defined as the top 30 picks of each draft) have been protected in their first year of Rule 5 eligibility.

For the unprotected first-rounders, very few have gone on to have MLB success. Last year, saw three first-time first-rounders left unprotected: Royals lefthander Asa Lacy, Twins shortstop Keoni Cavaco and Twins first baseman Aaron Sabato. Cavaco has since been released while Sabato and Lacy are unprotected again this year.

Cole Ragans is the best success story for an unprotected first-rounders in the past decade. Ragans struggled with elbow injuries and was left unprotected in 2020’s Rule 5 draft. Once healthy, he has blossomed. He has become one of the American League’s better starters since the Royals acquired him in the 2023 Aroldis Chapman trade.

He is a standout exception. Of the 53 unprotected first-rounders over the past decade Will Benson, Jordyn Adams, Riley Pint, Richie Martin and Phil Bickford have had the next best MLB careers.

Here’s a look at how many first-time eligible first-round picks have been protected in each of the past nine years.

Year	Source	1st round 1st time eligible	Added To 40-Man Roster	Protection Percentage
2016	4YR	15	13	86.7%
2016	HS	17	13	76.5%
2016	JC	1	1	100.0%
2017	4YR	18	16	88.9%
2017	HS	13	10	76.9%
2018	4YR	15	11	73.3%
2018	HS	11	8	72.7%
2018	JC	1	0	0.0%
2019	4YR	14	13	92.9%
2019	HS	14	8	57.1%
2020	4YR	16	14	87.5%
2020	HS	16	12	75.0%
2020	JC	2	1	50.0%
2021	4YR	13	12	92.3%
2021	HS	12	9	75.0%
2022	4YR	19	15	78.9%
2022	HS	15	11	73.3%
2022	JC	1	1	100.0%
2023	4YR	18	16	88.9%
2023	HS	10	9	90.0%
2024	4YR	13	12	92.3%
2024	HS	14	10	71.4%
Grand Total		280	227	81.1%