Fantasy Baseball Value Picks For Every National League Team In 2025

Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Braves

Schwellenbach is every fantasy analyst’s offseason darling after recording a 3.35 ERA in 123+ innings with Atlanta in 2024. He was one of four starters last season to combine a sub-5% walk rate with a swinging strike rate above 13%. The others were Tarik Skubal, Logan Gilbert and Shota Imanaga.

This well-rounded skill set helps push aside concerns over his lack of track record. Critically, an absence of handling an ace-level workload doesn’t mean Schwellenbach can’t do it. He just hasn’t had the opportunity yet.

Typically, with young breakout picks, there’s a question of how good the pitcher is, perhaps with some control concerns or a lingering injury mixed in. Schwellenbach doesn’t have those worries, and pitching experts marvel at his six-pitch mix with movement profiles breaking in every direction:

Matt McLain, 2B, Reds

The injuries have started to pile up since McLain’s major league debut two years ago:

• August 2023: Strained right oblique
• March 2024: Torn labrum in left shoulder
• August 2024: Stress reaction in rib cage while rehabbing shoulder

Trendy upside picks usually get multiple chances to prove the injury doctors wrong. For instance, look at what has happened to Royce Lewis’ ADP this offseason.

Missing the entire 2024 campaign was a killer for McLain and fantasy managers alike, but the promise of what he showed as a rookie is still burned into our collective minds, having slashed .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 thefts in just over 400 plate appearances.

McLain’s underlying skill set is iffy at best. Per Robert Orr’s metrics, he has a keen eye but lets too many hittable pitches pass him. His contact skills and raw power are more solid than good, and in 2023, he ranked in the 17th percentile in pulled fly balls. Luckily, his home park helps make up for that. Entering his age-25 season, McLain has the pedigree and favorable environment to perform like one of the top second basemen in MLB.

William Contreras, C, Brewers

Not every value pick must come in the back-end or middle of drafts. Starting the run at a scarce position sometimes yields the most draft-day profit. In Contreras’ case, his fantasy value as a pure hitter is supercharged by a historic amount of playing time as a catcher.

Only Johnny Bench and Jason Kendall have had multiple seasons with 670 PAs. Look no further than Adley Rutschman to see what can happen the following year, as he fell to 638 PAs in 2024 while struggling through the second half. Perhaps wear and tear will catch up to Contreras this season.

Still, it’s a gamble worth taking when factoring in the proven floor Contreras has shown, mainly in batting average, for which he has a .277 career mark. Combine that with 20 homers, 5-10 steals, and plenty of runs and RBI from hitting atop Milwaukee’s lineup daily, and Contreras provides a fantasy edge despite his elevated cost.

Clay Holmes, RHP, Mets

Like Schwellenbach, Holmes is another NL East pitcher popping up on sleeper and breakout lists throughout the industry. Last season saw relief-turned-starter successes like Reynaldo López and Michael King. Holmes appears to be next in line, as he worked to overhaul his arsenal completely this offseason.

As a groundball specialist and reliever, Holmes hasn’t located many pitches in the upper half of the strike zone in recent years. This is best shown by looking at his pitch plots from 2024 via Baseball Savant:

Holmes’s new kick change has been the talk of Grapefruit League action thus far, but equally important will be throwing something hard up-and-in to lefties. He’s reportedly also experimenting with a four-seamer and cutter this spring, planning to bring whichever performs better into the season. A bet on Holmes this draft season is as much a bet on modern pitching development as it is on his specific skills.

Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals

As a 22-year-old, Winn made significant strides with St. Louis, blending improved contact skills with more pulled fly balls.

He totaled double-digit home runs and steals to go along with a respectable batting average, and he’s alreadystated a desire to run more in 2025. With a career 3.4% barrel rate, Winn is unlikely to be a league-winner due to capped power potential, but a healthy combination of average, steals and runs scored could make for a sneaky value pick in the middle rounds.

Ryan Walker, RHP, Giants

Given that this is the first draft season where Walker is being taken as a top closer, it’s understandable that there is some trepidation about how “real” his 2024 was.

The surface level numbers were outstanding: 76 appearances, 80 innings, 1.91 ERA, 085 WHIP, 21 holds and 10 saves.

The underlying metrics were also outstanding: 2.45 SIERA, 47 GB%, 26 K-BB% and 12.4 SwStr%.

Manager Bob Melvin has already named Walker as the closer entering the season. He’s a potential top-five fantasy reliever who could be had cheaper than that on draft day.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

Crow-Armstrong only had 322 stolen base opportunities in 2024, but he attempted to steal 7.8% of the time, ranking fourth in the majors behind only Elly De La Cruz, Dairon Blanco and David Hamilton. Despite so few chances, he finished eighth in Statcast’s Stealing Runs metric, which shows his aggression is matched by efficiency.

The key for Crow-Armstrong will be how he continues progressing as a hitter. In the first half of 2024, he hit just .203 with a .253 OBP. After the all-star break, he posted a .262 average with a .310 OBP. Improvement from a young player is noteworthy, but we shouldn’t fully buy into the second-half results.

And yet, the potential stolen base upside—should everything click for Crow-Armstrong as a hitter—is too massive to ignore. Fortunately, 80-grade defense will ensure his status as the team’s primary center fielder, giving him ample opportunity to build on last summer’s flashes.

Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, Diamondbacks

Pfaadt improved in 2024, though not quite to the degree where he was able to pitch to his ERA estimators:

He had a lower SIERA than Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Bryce Miller and Gerrit Cole. Of course, fantasy isn’t played using underlying metrics.

Part of Pfaadt’s issue was an inability to get lefties out. While he didn’t allow much power to lefthanded hitters, the .294 average Pfaadt surrendered was third-highest among starters who faced at least 300 batters. This could be small-sample noise, but further digging into the movement profiles on his pitches reveals that he lacks something with velo to go inside on lefties.

As is, Pfaadt can be considered a positive regression candidate based on his ERA estimators. The upside comes from what happens if he improves his arsenal versus opposite-handed hitters.

Nick Pivetta, RHP, Padres

Sticking with SIERA underperformers, Pivetta’s value case stems from one of the most significant park upgrades imaginable.

Pivetta has spent his career pitching home games in Boston (No. 2 most favorable for offense, per Statcast) and Philadelphia (No. 6). Insert spacious Petco Park in San Diego, which ranks 29th for overall run scoring.

Pivetta is on record believing in pitching to his strengths, so a new pitch mix shouldn’t be expected. Instead, it’s all about the home park to discover who the real Pivetta truly is.

Tommy Edman, OF, Dodgers

It shouldn’t be surprising that a team with too many superstars lacks sufficient value picks. Landing on Edman isn’t the most exciting, but more so than Year 2 breakout bets, he represents something of an old-school fantasy sleeper.

Using Fangraphs’ auction calculator for 12-team, 5×5 rotissiere leagues, here is how Edman produced before last season.

In 2024, a nagging wrist injury cost him most of the regular season, and his batted ball results suffered. Interestingly, his swing decision improved in the small sample, and he caught fire in the playoffs.

Could the Dodgers have helped improve his swing decisions, and we witnessed what happens with a healthy wrist in October? It’s admittedly far-fetched, but buying a 30-steal bounceback bet on the best team in baseball is a worthwhile gamble at his ADP.

MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Nationals

Let’s examine Gore’s velocities by season:

This has fueled a year-to-year improvement in SIERA, but a 3.90 ERA remains his career best. Worse, his WHIP has been 1.40 or higher for three straight seasons.

Gore has swing-and-miss stuff but also walks many hitters, so he needs to limit suppression on batted balls. In 2023, he had a disastrous 1.78 HR/9 rate. Last season, he got the homers in check but allowed a .340 BABIP. Gore’s breakout case hinges on his ability to have a season where he marries a strong HR/9 with a reasonable BABIP.

Orion Kerkering, RHP, Phillies

The Phillies haven’t had a 30-save closer since (checks notes) Jeanmar Gómez in 2016. Over the past four seasons, the only Philadelphia reliever to eclipse even 13 saves was Craig Kimbrel in 2023, with 23. Based on historical standards, the odds are against Kerkering seizing a full-time closing role this season.

Still, the organization let Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman walk in free agency and only signed Jordan Romano on a one-year deal. Kerkering, meanwhile, combined a 54% ground-ball rate with a 23 K-BB%—both elite marks.

All three of Kerkering’s pitches (sweeper, fastball, sinker) rate favorably by Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ and Statcast’s run values. Combined with his strong ERA estimators, we can feel confident that Kerkering is talented. All he needs is a chance in the role.

Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates

Here are Chandler’s stats over his past 32 games started, between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A:

• 168.1 IP
• 199 K
• 2.67 ERA
• 0.96 WHIP
• 30 K%
• 22 K-BB%

An entire generation of fantasy players might learn the wrong lessons from Paul Skenes in 2024, but often, it’s as simple as identifying the uber-talented prospect waiting on an opportunity. Jared Jones’ rookie year is a better expectation for Chandler, though it appears he’ll begin the season at Triple-A.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies

Tovar’s profile is similar to Winn’s: a former top prospect who has cemented himself as a franchise’s everyday shortstop for the foreseeable future. Both hit for a helpful average while scoring runs atop the order. From there, Tovar is more impactful in homers and RBIs, while Winn helps fantasy managers more in steals.

As displayed above, Tovar’s swing decisions show a transparent approach at the plate. Even moderately improving his chase and selectivity could lead to a breakout year, though his already-present floor still projects as a draft-day value.

Max Meyer, RHP, Marlins

There’s nowhere to go but up for the former third-overall pick after posting a 5.68 ERA in 2024. Meyer’s ERA estimators suggested he didn’t pitch quite that poorly, but this isn’t a case of simple regression. It’s encouraging, then, that Meyer is adding a sweeper and sinker to his arsenal for 2025. He previously relied on his slider and four-seamer, neither good enough to headline a two-pitch mix. Wins will be tough to come by while pitching for the Marlins, but fantasy managers should watch for streaming opportunities depending on his early-season results.