Fantasy Baseball Value Picks For Every American League Team In 2025
Image credit: Jonathan India (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
The terms breakout, sleeper and bust have been part of the fantasy baseball vernacular for so long that they’ve grown to mean different things to different people.
So, instead of confining ourselves to players of a certain age or average draft position, we’ll broaden the scope of our fantasy “value” picks to include any player who can meaningfully outproduce expectations. For instance, in fantasy, a fifth-rounder performing like a second-rounder can be equal to or more valuable than a late-round selection returning a middle-round value.
Some choices are stars while others are deep league names to keep in a queue. Every American League team—even the White Sox—is represented.
Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles
Rodriguez improved his season-long SIERA from 4.01 as a rookie to 3.61 last year, but he didn’t entirely break out to the degree many hoped for.
A second-straight offseason breakout case lies not in his underlying metrics but in his pitch arsenal, as Eno Sarris’ Pitching+ model gives Rodriguez four above-average offerings. It’s led by his changeup, which, per Statcast’s run values, has been one of the league’s top offspeed pitches since Rodriguez debuted.
Rodriguez also throws his four-seamer at 96 mph, giving him a strong two-pitch base from which to build. His breaking pitches are the key to taking the next steps. After throwing his slider harder in 2024, Rodriguez is tinkering with a sweeper this spring. This would give him a fifth pitch and something else that would move toward his glove side:
Rodriguez would then have the running four-seamer and changeup to attack righties inside, and he’d have three breaking pitches—all at different velocities—with which to go outside. The adjustment could help the 25-year-old turn over a lineup more regularly to become the ace Baltimore needs him to be.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
It’s as apparent of a breakout pick as there is, but Langford still isn’t considered in the Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill tier of proven young studs. There’s good reason for that, considering the Jacksons each maintained a high level of performance for longer than Langford did as a rookie.
However, from last spring, Langford was seen as the can’t-miss rookie for 2024. Like the Jacksons, Langford got off to a slow start, and a strained hamstring prevented his chances for a summer breakout. It finally came in September, as Langford hit .300/.386/.610 with eight homers and seven steals in the season’s final month.
A look under the hood supports the idea that, as a pure hitter, he belongs:
The above numbers are MLB percentile rankings courtesy of Robert Orr.
And here are their stolen base attempt rates:
- Chourio: 2.5%
- Langford: 2.1%
- Merrill: 1.4%
Langford might be the trio’s best bat without sacrificing stolen base upside.
Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics
Butler’s overall numbers last season were strong. As a 23-year-old rookie, he hit .262/.317/.490 with 22 homers and 18 stolen bases in only 125 games. Butler’s 130 wRC+ led all rookies with at least 350 plate appearances and his 3.3 fWAR ranked second on the A’s.
From June 30 through the end of the year, he hit a scalding .304/.347/.596 with 20 homers. Here’s a list of hitters with a higher wRC+ than Butler during this three-month sample:
- Aaron Judge
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Brent Rooker
- Shohei Ohtani
- Juan Soto
Butler had a high homer-to-fly ball rate during this heater, and it isn’t as if his season-long batted-ball numbers are in outlier territory. Per Orr’s metrics, his pulled fly ball rate was in the 18th percentile.
That should keep expectations in check, but note that Butler was a perfect 18-for-18 when swiping bases. Per Statcast, he tied for 13th in the majors in “stealing value runs,” which includes outs created. His stolen base efficiency could lead to more attempts in 2025, paving another pathway to fantasy goodness.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Yankees
Bellinger has changed as a hitter over the past two seasons, having traded batted-ball damage for better contact skills:
In 2025, he’ll combine his usual pulled fly ball approach with Yankee Stadium’s short porch. Fantasy managers have been burned by Bellinger before, but he’s now hitting behind Aaron Judge with a home park that Statcast calls the third-most favorable for lefthanded homers.
Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Angels
Kikuchi has historically underperformed his pitching estimators, with a career 3.98 xFIP compared to a 4.57 ERA. However, he lowered his estimators so dramatically last season (3.30 SIERA) that his 4.05 ERA wasn’t as bad as his previous marks.
Things were even better following a deadline deal from the Blue Jays to the Astros, as Kikuchi’s K-BB% rose from 21% pre-trade to 26% over the final two months. He struck out 76 batters in 60 innings with Houston, pitching a 2.70 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.
It’s always risky betting on partial-year stats, and there’s a fear that any adjustments Kikuchi made with the Astros could vanish with the Angels. So farin drafts, it appears as if the market is fading him a bit too harshly. Fantasy managers could do worse than betting on a borderline top-12 SIERA from last season.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
Caminero hit a ball 116.3 mph last season, which tied Pete Alonso for a top 15 maxEV in the majors. It proved what has been evident since Caminero broke out as a 19-year-old in 2023: He combines thunderous raw power with a low strikeout rate.
Through 50 games with the Rays, he has a 21.6 K% with a 101 wRC+, which is impressive as he embarks on his age-21 campaign.
In 2025, the Rays will play their home games at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, a near replica of Yankee Stadium. Whereas Bellinger could benefit as a lefthanded hitter by pulling fly balls into the short porch, Caminero could take advantage of his power ally to the opposite field. His pulled fly ball rate was in the 16th percentile last year. For at least this season, hopeful fantasy drafters will be satisfied with him taking an opposite-field approach. The power certainly plays to all fields:
Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox
Q: Since 2018, who are the only minor league hitters with a season featuring a 180 wRC+ or higher across 400 or more plate appearances?
A: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kristian Campbell.
There were differences between their seasons. Campbell is coming off his age-22 season, whereas Guerrero was 19. Campbell accomplished the feat in over 100 more plate appearances, but his wRC+ was a bit lower.
Comparing Campbell to Vlad Jr. as a prospect is unfair and besides the point. Zooming out, it’s more important to recognize the historic hitting performance Campbell registered in 2024.
It remains a question as to whether or not he’ll crack Boston’s Opening Day roster, but a strong spring could force the issue with plausible pathways at both second base and left field.
Whenever he debuts, fantasy managers should anticipate a slow start. It’s becoming the norm for prospects to reach the big leagues nowadays, but Chourio and Merrill are reminders of what can happen once everything clicks. In other words, Campbell will be someone to buy low on should he not live up to being an immediate star.
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Blue Jays
How quickly the narrative can change. When Hoffman was stuck in the Phillies’ closer-by-committee, it seemed the only talking point surrounding him was when he would operate as a full-time closer.
When he began free agency, he marketed himself as a starter, which led to the Braves and Orioles wanting to sign him. Unfortunately, shoulder concerns during his physical led to both front offices wanting to renegotiate. It’s important to note that both teams still tried to sign him.
He’s finally “the guy” on a team doing everything it can to compete in 2025. The path to get here was winding, but the result was the same. Hoffman can be confidently drafted as a strong second closer this spring.
As a reminder, here are his reliever ranks from 2023-24:
Parker Meadows, OF, Tigers
Meadows’ profile can be viewed in multiple ways: power/speed option, platoon hitter and strong defender. This gives him two positives against one negative, creating his pathways to a breakout.
As Detroit charged to the playoffs last season, Meadows led the team in plate appearances over the final two months. He operated as the leadoff hitter against righties and hit ninth versus southpaws. His glove helps prevent the platoon from being worse than it could be.
Meadows hit .296/.340/.500 with six homers and five thefts over his final 201 plate appearances. He’s expected to begin this season in the same role he in which finished so strongly as a 24-year-old.
Jonathan India, 2B, Royals
The only Royals hitter who received a plate appearance in 2024 with a higher OBP than India is Bobby Witt Jr. Additionally, Kansas City’s leadoff hitters had the lowest OBP in the majors last season. It’s clear what India was brought in for—to get on base in front of baseball’s best young player.
According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Kauffman Stadium is the fourth-best venue for hitters. It doesn’t rank well for homers but is exceptional for hits and runs scored, which perfectly complements India’s skill set and role.
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, Astros
It was a tale of two halves for Houston’s rookie righthander:
Arrighetti talked openly about using advanced data to focus on attacking hitters’ weaknesses to compensate for his lack of “stuff.”
Interestingly, Arrighetti didn’t meaningfully change his pitch mix to fuel his second-half success. Instead, his five-pitch arsenal appears to have combined with good health and a developing savvy to approach to facing big league hitters. He’ll open the season as Houston’s locked-in No. 3 starter.
David Festa, RHP, Twins
Sometimes, it’s as simple as comparing a young pitcher’s ERA to their estimator metrics. In Festa’s case, the skills-based upside case is clear:
It’s currently up in the air whether Festa will break camp in the Twins’ rotation, but a 19.5 K-BB% through 64 big league innings is something to bet on whenever the opportunity strikes. Whether in drafts or via in-season waivers, Festa is an upside selection to bet on in 2025.
Cade Smith, RHP, Guardians
There’s no reason to think Emmanuel Clase won’t be himself in 2025, which makes this a suggestion for saves plus holds formats.
Smith’s fastball was the most effective pitch in the majors last season, per Baseball Savant’s run values. He led all relief pitchers in fWAR, finished third in K-BB%, top-10 in ERA, third in SIERA and 15th in WHIP. It was a dominant rookie campaign. The only issue is not every fantasy league rewards elite setup arms.
Smith could perhaps be a target for dynasty managers, but the transition from stud setup man to top 10 closer isn’t always smooth. Smith is a name to watch, even as a ratio streamer in roto formats. The skills are that strong.
Victor Robles, OF, Mariners
The 27-year-old has repeatedly let the fantasy community down, but an absolute heater upon joining Seattle has him back on the late-round radar this spring.
In 262 PAs with the Mariners, Robles slashed .328/.393/.467 with a whopping 30 stolen bases. Robles’ SB attempt rate spiked last year, and he was exceptionally efficient. Only Shohei Ohtani and Brice Turang were more valuable base stealers, per Statcast.
A .388 BABIP with Seattle should be expected to regress, but Robles’ late-season run shouldn’t be dismissed entirely. He’s a talented young player who could reach a new level following a change of scenery.
Sean Burke, RHP, White Sox
It’s slim pickings on Chicago’s south side, so consider Burke the truest deep-league sleeper on this list. He joined the White Sox last September, recording a 29% strikeout rate through four appearances (three starts).
Burke’s homer and control issues in the minors didn’t pop up in his small-sample debut, so that’s the key to monitor as he battles for a rotation spot this spring. However, receiving tutelage from the best coaches in the organization could benefit Burke, and the underlying skills are difficult to ignore on a pitching staff ripe with opportunity.
