Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates: Finding The Next Jackson Chourio Or Jackson Merrill For 2025
Image credit: Wyatt Langford (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
A lot has changed in Major League Baseball over the past half decade. The biggest change has been the new rules implemented over the past two seasons, most of which were designed to reduce the amount of dead time during games.
MLB has also made changes to the ball itself, whether intentional or not. Beginning in 2022, this caused a league-wide downturn in homers, which has had a ripple effect: Rookies are taking longer to adjust.
Other factors are likely at play, including pitchers’ ever-increasing velocity and the widening gap between the majors and minors. These latter two issues were also present in the “Juiced Ball Era” (2015-21), which leads me to believe offensive environment plays a major role in this story.
Regardless, what we’ve seen has been notable over the past few years. During the Juiced Ball Era, it became a popular fantasy baseball strategy to immediately add any top prospect recently called up. Cody Bellinger, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Pete Alonso, and Bo Bichette are all youngsters who had immediate success in the majors.
That has not been the case since. While Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Gunnar Henderson have gone on to become stars, it took time to happen. In 2024, this was best represented by Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio:
When factoring in their well-rounded contributions in power, speed and batting average, they made for some of the most impactful rookie seasons in fantasy baseball’s recent history.
The question now becomes: Who is next? It’s natural to think through which top prospects will debut in 2025, but another approach could be to seek out hitters who have already gone through the transitional stage in the majors.
This would include 2025 rookies who already debuted last season, such as Dylan Crews and Jasson Domínguez.
It also includes the following names, all of whom showed flashes of stardom at times this past year.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays
Including a 2023 cameo during his age-19 season, Caminero has now played 50 games with the Rays. He has hit .246/.296/.412, a 101 wRC+, which is right around the league average.
His 21.5 K% in 2024 was better than the league average, which is no small feat for a player who turned 21 this past July. Caminero didn’t walk much at 6.2%, and his minor league history suggests he may never post a double-digit walk rate.
That said, his swing decisions when attempting damage were excellent according to Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which placed Caminero in the 98th percentile this past year.
This shows up in his 12% barrel rate, which ranked right ahead of Merrill and ninth among qualified rookies. He has already recorded a 116.3 mph exit velocity in his age-20 season. The power potential is enormous.
Like James Wood, Caminero hasn’t yet shown a propensity to pull the ball in the air. This is interesting, as the Rays are set to play 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field, which has dimensions that line up with Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. Still, from a long-term perspective, it would benefit Caminero to improve his 16th-percentile pulled fly ball rate.
William Contreras, Elly De La Cruz and Lawrence Butler are similar damage-oriented hitters with a low rate of pulled fly balls.
With Caminero showing outstanding competency in his first test against major league pitching, it’s conceivable for a breakout to happen any year. He’ll be much cheaper to acquire in drafts, though his lack of stolen bases is partially responsible for the difference.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers
The hype for Langford reached a fever pitch in spring training, as the former No. 4 overall pick was tracking to make the Opening Day roster while fresh off a pro debut that saw him hit .360/.480/.677 while barnstorming through four levels of the minors.
Had a May hamstring injury not derailed his momentum, perhaps Langford would be viewed more like Merrill and Chourio. Let’s add his monthly splits into that graphic from earlier:
Analytically, Langford’s profile backs up the performance, which was 10% better than the league average. His SEAGER metric ranks in the 91st percentile, alongside a strong chase rate. He’s well-rounded in batted ball metrics and average or better when making contact.
We witnessed the entire upside in September when Langford hit .300/.386/.610 with eight homers, 20 RBI, and 25 runs scored in 26 games. He even stole seven bases, finishing at 19 for the year with an 86% success rate.
Drafters might have trepidation, given he didn’t sustain his success as long as Merrill or Chourio, but as a hitter, he’s right there with them entering 2025.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs
Crow-Armstrong began the season shuttling back and forth between Triple-A and the majors, but he returned for good in late May. He struggled badly in June, improved a little in July and then took off in August before cooling a tad in September:
In the second half, he hit .262 with seven homers and 10 stolen bases, which play for rotisserie managers. Overall, he swiped 27 bases with a 90% success rate.
Between the first half and second half, he lowered his strikeout rate from 26% to 22%, and he did so while increasing his ISO. It’s the sign of a young hitter adjusting to big league pitching. In PCA’s case, the season might’ve run out before we got to see if it’d stick.
The Cubs have a lot up in the air with their 2025 outfield, but one certainty is likely: Crow-Armstrong will be in center. Thanks to his elite range and arm, he produced a 99th-percentile fielding run value in one of baseball’s most demanding positions. This defensive value kept him in the lineup against lefties in last year’s second half.
Ultimately, Crow-Armstrong is unique when discussing both fantasy baseball and reality. In fantasy, he’s a potential 20-homer, 50-theft bat at peak if everything breaks right. Reality-wise, he’s immensely valuable due to his defense and base running. The Cubs and fantasy managers alike should be eager to see what comes of his bat.
