Ernesto Martinez Jr., Ian Seymour Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (April 14)

10 Statcast Standouts

Ernesto Martinez Jr., 1B, Brewers

I have an unwritten rule in this series: Don’t talk about the same guy every single week. That all went away when I saw this clip over the weekend:

For those of you that are here to see Brandon Woodruff content, let us introduce you to Ernesto Martinez Jr.

He is here to mash baseballs.
He's quite good at it. pic.twitter.com/qmNuAkYwSx

— Nashville Sounds (@nashvillesounds) April 13, 2025

I’ve watched this clip 20 times, and I still can’t quite wrap my head around how that swing at a ball in that location resulted in a 111 mph, 435 foot pull-side blast. Last week, I remarked that I was about as “optimistic as one can be with only 28 pitches of data.” That’s how good Martinez Jr.’s early numbers were. We’re now two-plus weeks into the season, and the data just keeps on popping and is somehow even better than last week.

Since last week, Martinez Jr. has upped his zone contact rate from an elite 90.3% to an even more elite 92.2%, posted an even higher maximum exit velocity, upped his 90th percentile exit velocity by three mph, reduced his chase and upped his zone swing rate. With metrics as scintillating as this, it’s no surprise his surface level metrics are finally catching up.

Let’s put some context around just how absurd the above sea of gold really is. Early last year, I took a look at how to translate exit velocity metrics to tool grades:

• 90th Percentile Exit Velocity of 111 mph = 80 grade (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are in this tier)
• Maximum Exit Velocity of 115.5 mph = 70 grade (Juan Soto and Rafael Devers are in this tier)
• Average Exit Velocity of 97.5 mph = 80 grade (Stanton, Judge and Ohtani are in this tier)

Those numbers would be god-tier metrics for a prospect all on their own. Here’s where it gets absolutely crazy: Martinez Jr. is pairing 70-80 grade raw power with one of the best contact rates in Triple-A. Now, I’m not saying he’s going to be as good as this guy:

I am saying, however, that his metrics against Triple-A pitchers looks a lot like Alvarez’ metrics against MLB pitchers in 2025.

But wait, there’s more. With lefty sluggers, they often have major struggles against lefties. In a small sample of 45 pitches, Martinez Jr. is showing a 100% zone contact rate, along with a plus-plus contact rate of 82.4% overall. He hasn’t done a ton of damage yet, but his swing decisions are good and he puts the ball in play, reducing the risk that he becomes a platoon bat.

Here’s where it gets even crazier: Martinez Jr. has never been in the Top 30 prospects for the Brewers. He wasn’t in the top 20 for Baseball Prospectus, nor the top 30 for MLB Pipeline, and he was outside of the top 42 for FanGraphs (but did receive some love in their “Other Prospects of Note”). In today’s world of plentiful prospect content, it’s very rare for a player this good to fly under the radar. Either Martinez Jr. is having the best 200-pitch run of his life and he’ll come crashing back to earth, or it’s very real, and he’s suddenly become a top 30 prospect. My proverbial money is on the latter.

Ian Seymour, LHP, Rays

Seymour is absolutely dominating with a fastball/changeup/cutter-based arsenal. None of these pitches grades out well on public Stuff models, but the results have been spectacular. His fastball sits 90-91 mpoh with decent shape, but it is probably a 40 or 45 from a Stuff perspective. This season, it’s been a whiff machine, generating 49% whiffs per swing and 21% whiffs per pitch, an improvement on last season’s 32.6% and 15.7% rates. The changeup has been even better at 52.2% whiffs per swing and 27% whiffs per pitch. The cutter isn’t nearly as good, but it’ss an important pitch to keep hitters guessing.

The top-line results have been even more impressive for Seymour, excluding his injury-shortened 2022:

Year	Levels	IP	ERA	K%	K/9	K%-BB%
2021	A/A+	55.1	1.95	40.7%	14.15	31.8%
2022	AA	16.2	8.10	28.4%	12.42	13.6%
2023	A/A+/AA	42.0	1.50	29.7%	9.86	19.4%
2024	AA/AAA	145.1	2.35	28.1%	10.03	21.0%
2025	AAA	15.0	2.40	38.3%	13.80	33.33%

That’s a low 2.00 ERA over his last 200 innings with excellent strikeout numbers. The Rays are always on the cutting edge of research and development, so Seymour has my attention as a theoretically-middling stuff guy with otherworldly results. Have the Rays discovered something? I assume we’ll find out soon enough, because the results—both on the surface with and the underlying whiff metrics—suggest that Seymour is a legit pitching prospect.

Gabriel Rincones Jr, OF, Phillies

Matt Eddy tagged Rincones as one of his breakout prospects for 2025, noting that we should not “let perfect be the enemy of good in Rincones’ case.” I think that is very apropos.

Here we see a strong exit velo profile that will play down because Rincones Jr. hits the ball into the ground too much, with his average hard-hit launch angle lower than his average launch angle. This indicates his best contact comes on ground balls, which can be very limiting to a player’s production.

Rincones Jr. combines plus-plus raw power with average-to-plus contact metrics that are buoyed by excellent swing decisions, above-average in-zone aggression and above-average chase avoidance. He’s looking like a potent strong-side platoon bat.

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics

Kurtz has had an incredible start to his 2025 season and is making a case to be called up soon. He’s doing it by slugging an incredible 1.140 on pitches he puts in play:

What makes Kurtz special is his ability to make his best contact on balls in the air. His Air EV (exit velocity on balls hit 20 degrees or higher) is better than his average exit velocity, and his average launch angle is higher on his hard-hit balls. That’s a recipe for hitting plenty of home runs.

Kurtz is doing most of his damage against fastballs, with plus-plus contact rates both in-zone and out-of-zone. He’s also fairly patient, which should force pitchers to throw him enough fastballs. While his metrics aren’t quite as spectacular as Ernesto Martinez Jr., he’s almost four years younger, has plenty of room to develop and is producing at an elite level.

There will be many calls to “free Kurtz” and bring him up to the majors. However, he could use a little more time to work on his swing decisions and his ability to fight off pitches he chases. His combination of plus-plus power (or better), at least average contact and highly-optimized launch angles is a recipe for 35-40 home runs with good batting averages and plenty of walks.

Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox

Hit it hard, hit it in the air. Anthony does this better than almost any prospect, perhaps even on the level of Nick Kurtz. What’s interesting is that he appears to have leaned into being a slugger and sacrificed some contact for it compared to last season:

He’s also become somewhat more passive and now has an issue making solid contact against out- of-zone pitches. This is likely an intentional trade off, as, despite the regression in contact skills, they still grade out as roughly average while the contact quality metrics are off-the-charts good. This suggests to me that Anthony needs more time to refine this new approach, with the hope being the contact skills catch up to where they were before, much like Kristian Campbell’s did last year. The Red Sox don’t need to rush him. If 2024 Roman Anthony already had an extremely high ceiling, 2025 Roman Anthony just raised it even higher.

Konnor Griffin, OF, Pirates

We don’t have enough data yet, and some of the data we do have is missing pitch type info (hence the totals not matching the rows). However, Griffin is easily answering questions about whether he can make enough contact (yes, he can). He’s also shown an incredible 114.2 maximum exit velocity, which is almost Sebastian Walcott territory given his age. The new question: Can he consistently lift the ball? I’ll circle back in a month when we hopefully have more data.

Jake Faherty, RHP, Marlins

Jake Faherty—not to be confused with Jack Flaherty—is a name to watch. He caught my eye when I reviewed 2024 draft picks. Here’s what I wrote back then:

Here’s what Faherty looks like now:

The pitch classifications are a little wonky, as he’s showing a cutter, sinker-sweeper and four-seamer based on the movement profiles of the pitches. It’s a power sinker up to 100 mph, averaging 98, and a slider around 88-90 that gets a lot of swing and miss with elite spin characteristics. His results through 3.2 innings so far have been exceptional, with six strikeouts to go with a walk and two hit batters, but no earned runs. This is a power arm with a lot of upside, so it’s no surprise he was making waves on the backfields.

Wellington Aracena, RHP, Mets

Four-seam fastballs that are to left of the 0 line on the chart above fall into the realm of hard cutters. It’s a hard pitch to evaluate. If it’s a generic four-seam, it’s got “dead zone” shape. If it’s a true cutter, it’s a deadly pitch. The Mets have clearly moved him in this direction, adding 4.4 inches of cut compared to the 2024 version while also adding a full tick of velo with a max of 100.2 mph. Aracena is mostly a one-pitch pitcher, but a 99 mph cutter is a very exciting base for a relief arm. I’m working on a deep dive on the Mets’ pitching lab wins and am growing in confidence that they’ll be able to maximize this profile.

Raimon Gomez, RHP, Mets

Gomez is bringing the heat early this season, and he looks to be fully back after recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Most of his fastball’s quality relies on velocity, but it’s close enough that any gains in shape quality will be magnified. He pairs it with a sweeper and/or gyro slider that should play well off the fastball. He flashed a changeup as well in 2022, so we’ll see where the Mets develop him as he works his way back. A 100 mph fastball with decent shape is excellent clay with which to mold a major league arm.

Matt Gorski, OF, Pirates

Gorski is pretty old for Triple-A, but he’s absolutely mashing when he makes contact. He’s showing a more patient approach this year with much higher exit velocities and improved contact rates, especially against pitches he chases. The whiff issues still make him a fringe major leaguer, but he’s much closer to being a viable slugger than he was a year ago.