Dodgers On Historic Four-Year Run Of Excellence — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects

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In their 2000 book “Baseball Dynasties,” authors Rob Neyer and Eddie Epstein make the case that the 1936-39 Yankees are the greatest dynasty of all time.

The Yankees’ regular season domination of the American League is central to their case.

The Dodgers of the past four seasons have something in common with those great Joe DiMaggio-led Yankees teams.

The Dodgers led the National League in runs scored and fewest runs allowed for a fourth straight season in 2021. In the long history of baseball, that had been accomplished only once previously.

By the 1936-39 Yankees.

The Dodgers of today didn’t win four straight World Series championships like those late ’30s Yankees did. But it’s also true that teams in DiMaggio’s day did not have to navigate three rounds of playoffs each October. Back then, the team with the best record in its league advanced straight to the World Series.

Unexpected things happen in short series between good teams. The Dodgers won the 2020 World Series and had a shot to repeat in 2021 before losing to the Braves in a six-game NL Championship Series.

Prior to their 2020 title, the Dodgers lost to a historically strong Red Sox team in the 2018 World Series and got bounced by the eventual-champion Nationals in a 2019 NL Division Series that went the distance.

The Dodgers also lost the 2017 World Series in seven games to the Astros, an outcome that has taken on a new light in the wake of Houston’s sign-stealing scandal.

But in terms of regular season achievement, the Dodgers’ teams of 2018-21 are right there with the 1936-39 Yankees. Their balance between hitting, pitching and fielding is historic for its concentrated greatness.

In baseball’s Expansion Era, which dates back to 1961 and heralded the 162-game schedule, there have been 1,626 team seasons. The 2019 Dodgers rank fourth in that set with a +273 run differential. The 2021 Dodgers rank fifth at +269. And the 2018 Dodgers rank 40th out of more than 1,600 teams at +194 runs.

The 2020 Dodgers’ projected run differential was even better, but they played just 60 games in the pandemic-shortened season. While we will never know for sure what might have happened over a six-month season, we can make assumptions based on the strength of the surrounding 2019 and 2021 Dodgers teams.

Here are Los Angeles’ Pythagorean winning percentages—that is, their expected rate of wins based on runs scored and allowed—for the 2018 to 2021 window:

.712: 2020 Dodgers (best in Expansion Era, albeit in 60 games)
.672: 2021 Dodgers (fourth best)
.662: 2019 Dodgers (ninth best)
.624: 2018 Dodgers (41st best)

The 2017 Dodgers checked in with a .627 Pythagorean winning percentage, the 34th-best mark since expansion. All five of those Dodgers teams mapped to at least 100 Pythagorean wins over 162 games.

No other team of the Expansion Era has five straight seasons of 100 Pythag wins. Not the ’60s Yankees. Not the Athletics, Orioles or Reds dynasties of the ’70s. Not the A’s of the late ’80s. Not the Braves or Yankees of the ’90s.

There is an elegant simplicity to evaluating teams based on their runs scored and allowed totals.

Leading a league in runs scored requires a selective, powerful and timely offense. The Dodgers’ 2021 lineup included former MVPs Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger, the 2020 World Series MVP Corey Seager and the 2021 batting champion Trea Turner.

Justin Turner in eight postseasons and 352 plate appearances with Los Angeles has generated more win probability added in October than all but seven other hitters in history. Since he emerged in 2018, Max Muncy has been good for home runs, walks and clutch RBIs, and the elbow injury that knocked him out this October proved disruptive to the Dodgers’ offense.

A team that leads its league in fewest runs allowed requires synchronicity between pitchers and catchers, plus a reliable, well-positioned defense that converts balls in play into outs and limits baserunner advances.

To that last point, Dodgers pitchers allowed the lowest batting average on balls in play this season (.260) and have the lowest cumulative BABIP in baseball since 2018 at .270.

Actually, the Dodgers have the lowest BABIP allowed in baseball back through 2011. This is remarkable given the de-emphasis the Dodgers place on infielders’ range and their complete willingness to maximize players’ defensive versatility. Think Betts or Muncy playing second base. Or career middle infielder Chris Taylor becoming a semi-regular outfielder. Or Gavin Lux learning center field on the fly late this season.

The elder statesmen of the Dodgers’ rotation are future Hall of Famers Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, who have combined for six Cy Young Awards. Kershaw missed the postseason with an elbow injury, but Scherzer might win another Cy Young this season. If not him, then maybe teammate Walker Buehler. In his first full season in the rotation, Julio Urias won 20 games.

Kenley Jansen reached 350 career saves this season—he has 19 more in the postseason—and will be remembered as one of the great closers of his era.

Catcher Will Smith, a rookie in 2019, topped 100 games caught for the first time in his career and remained a threat on both sides of the ball. His development enabled the Dodgers to trade 22-year-old catcher Keibert Ruiz, one of the top prospects in baseball, to the Nationals to acquire Scherzer and Trea Turner at the 2021 trade deadline.

In other words, the success of the 2018-21 Dodgers has been a complete team effort.

Just 39 teams since 1901 have led the American or National league in both runs scored and fewest runs allowed in the same season. Even fewer teams have sustained that greatness over multiple seasons.

Thanks to a query performed by Baseball-Reference.com, we know that the 1942 and ’43 Yankees accomplished the feat in successive seasons. The 1970 and ’71 Orioles did, too. The 1942, ’44 and ’46 Cardinals did it three times in a five-season span.

But only the 1936-39 Yankees and 2018-21 Dodgers have led their leagues in runs scored and fewest runs allowed four years in a row.

Part of what makes striking such balance a rare achievement is park effects. For many teams, what its home park giveth in terms of run production, it taketh away from run prevention. And vice versa.

That ultimate team balance is what made those 1936-39 Yankees so special. It’s also what makes the 2018-21 Dodgers special, even though they don’t have the same number of World Series rings as those Yankees.