Data Dives On 5 Likely College Pitcher First-Rounders In The 2025 MLB Draft

Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU

Pitch Type	Total	Avg. Velo	Max. Velo	IVB	HB	Spin	VAA	Ext
Four-Seam	911	93.3	96.8	19.4	-8.2	2145	-5	6.13
Slider	542	85.4	89.9	-1.3	7.3	2692	-7.92	5.6
Changeup	234	83.1	86	9.4	-12.2	1537	-7.38	6.38
Curveball	230	79	85.2	-14.9	11	2865	-9.92	5.52

Anderson’s heroic postseason performance in regionals and College World Series won him Baseball America’s inaugural College Pitcher of the Year Award and established the LSU lefty as the top college pitcher in the class.

Pitchability is the name of the game for Anderson, who boasts solid but unspectacular stuff overall. His fastball features excellent shape, generating above-average ride and armside run while sitting 93-94 mph. Added velocity could see Anderson take a step forward with swing-and-miss generation if he ends up sitting more 95-96 mph as a professional.

His fastball generated a higher rate of whiffs this season than his slider, which is a squarely average offering with a solid combination of velocity and movement. Still, it’s not generated whiffs at the rate you’d expect for a college starter. Anderson’s changeup is his best secondary offering, as it boasted a 56.2% whiff rate in front of Trackman devices. His changeup has nearly a 2.5 degree separation off of his fastball plane, which creates deception and vertical separation.

Overall, it’s an above-average arsenal that could be further bolstered by added velocity or a bridge pitch between the fastball and slider.  

Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

Pitch Type	Total	Avg. Velo	Max. Velo	IVB	HB	Spin	VAA	Ext
Slider	575	85	89.4	-1	11.6	2358.7	-6.44	6.28
Two-Seam	322	93.4	96.6	6.6	-17.7	2256.5	-4.76	6.66
Four-Seam	309	93.5	97.7	11.7	-13.9	2293.7	-3.84	6.71
Changeup	115	85.5	89.2	-4.5	-7.8	1079.1	-6.89	6.7
Cutter	40	87.3	89.4	4.1	0.5	2320.4	-5.26	6.44

Arnold is a low-slot lefthander, not all that different in look from 2022 Cardinals first-round pick Cooper Hjerpe. Arnold’s stuff is better across the board than Hjerpe, however, even if his release traits are less outlier.

Arnold primarily mixes a sweepy mid-80s slider and two fastball shapes. The slider is his go-to pitch and his best whiff-inducing offering, generating a 46.3% whiff rate in Trackman-measured games this season. Arnold’s outlier combination of mid-80s velocity with above-average movement from a deceptive low slot, lefthanded release makes the pitch incredibly difficult to barrel.

Arnold’s four-seam fastball is the bat-missing offering of his two fastball shapes, with his two-seamer working as a groundball-driving pitch that boasted a 54.4% groundball rate in 2025. His changeup performed well in 2025, giving Arnold four shapes and a combination of pitches that move in different directions. The changeup boasted the second-highest groundball rate and second-highest whiff percentage (40%) in his arsenal.

Arnold actually boasts five different pitch shapes when you factor in his rarely-used cutter, giving him the ability to go after different handedness and types of hitting profiles with a unique plane of attack.  

Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma

Pitch Type	Total	Avg. Velo	Max. Velo	IVB	HB	Spin	VAA	Ext
Four-Seam	750	96.4	99.3	18.9	6.9	2309.6	-4.47	5.61
Cutter	329	89.2	91.8	5.8	-4	2519.1	-6.65	5.57
Slider	297	85.9	90.3	1	-4.5	2433.5	-7.24	5.45
Curveball	126	78.2	83.4	-16.8	-10.7	2632.8	-10.15	5.23
Changeup	51	88.7	92.1	10	13.7	1916.4	-5.93	5.37

Witherspoon and his twin brother Malachi spent two seasons at Oklahoma after a season at Northwest Florida State (FL.) JC. Witherspoon is an athletic mover on the mound, with buttery smooth mechanics. He had an excellent season in 2025 and showed a balanced arsenal with above-average velocity and good movement profiles.

His four-seam fastball sits 95-97 mph and touches 99 at peak with above-average ride and some cut. While he creates a flatter plane of approach, his 22.2% whiff rate against the fastball is a bit below-average for the quality of its traits.

He mixes three distinct breaking balls shapes: an upper-80s-to-low-90s cutter, a mid-80s slider and an upper-70s curveball with two-plane depth. His cutter has a whiff rate lower than his curveball, but due to a 56.5% swing rate against the pitch, it boasts the highest swinging-strike rate (21%) in his arsenal. With the trio of breaking balls shapes and his heater, Witherspoon has the ability to generate whiffs with four different pitches.

The questions around Witherspoon from some front offices surround his lack of remaining projection, both in his body and pitch mix. In some ways, he’s a “what you see is what you get” profile, but what you get in this case is a defined five-pitch mix with a variety of shapes and power. 

Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee

Pitch Type	Total	Avg. Velo	Max. Velo	IVB	HB	Spin	VAA	Ext
Four-Seam	1,003	95.8	100.4	19.5	-10.9	2345.1	-4.22	5.75
Cutter	184	87.6	92.5	4.6	4.7	2341.6	-6.66	5.73
Slider	183	82.2	89.1	-2.8	9.6	2450	-7.69	5.65
Splitter	183	86.6	90.6	2.1	-10.4	1173.8	-7.31	5.64

Over the last three seasons, Doyle has pitched for three different schools: Coastal Carolina as a freshman in 2023, Ole Miss as a sophomore in 2024 and then Tennessee as a junior in 2025. It was a smart decision to join the defending national champions, as Doyle raised his profile and became viewed as one of the top players in college baseball in 2025.

Doyle’s pitch mix is heavily reliant on a plus fastball that accounts for around 65% of his pitch usage this season. There’s good reason behind this, though, as Doyle sits 95-97 mph from the left side with plus induced vertical break and armside movement from a flatter plane of approach to the plate.

Lack of a breaking ball is the biggest concern with Doyle, as his cutter and slider both grade out as fringe-average offerings. Both post below-average swinging strike rates and will need to be triaged by his future team’s player development group after signing.

That said, Doyle’s power, ability to spin the ball and above-average splitter give him a pathway to grow into a more well-rounded pitcher as a professional. His fastball quality is a defining trait for successful starters, though he’ll need to develop a better breaking ball to reach his ceiling. Doyle will be one of the more interesting players to follow post-draft, as his future organization could have a large impact on how his profile ends up. 

Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Pitch Type	Total	Avg. Velo	Max Velo	IVB	HB	Spin	VAA	Ext
Four-Seam	518	95.3	98.4	19.2	13.5	2231.5	-4.21	5.71
Changeup	356	84.3	87	8.8	18.6	2311.5	-7.09	5.78
Slider	175	86.4	95.6	3	-1.9	2392.4	-7.17	5.51

Considered one of the top prospects heading into the 2025 draft cycle, Bremner dealt with personal tragedy off-the-field and overcame early struggles on the mound to reestablish himself as a top-half-of-the-draft talent as the year has progressed.

Bremner has as defined a three-pitch mix as you’ll see in this year’s class with strong traits across his entire arsenal. The combination of power and movement on his fastball make it a potentially plus offering, and it sits 94-96 mph while generating above-average ride and armside run. It also has a flat plane of approach to the plate, making the pitch project as an above-average fastball in pro ball.

Bremner’s changeup is his primary secondary. With a nearly three-degree separation off of his fastball, it’s likely to play as a plus bat-missing pitch. His college numbers support that, as well, as evidenced by a 24.7% swinging-strike rate against the offering in 2025. His slider is fringe-average with solid velocity and cutter shape, but the pitch lacks the ride of sweep needed to be effective at that velocity.

If Bremner can improve his breaking ball, it will aid his plus fastball and changeup combination in generating whiffs. While he might have seen his draft status tumble since December, Bremner’s overall arsenal is impressive and should make him a Top 100 Prospect after stepping into pro ball.